Nate Diaz has delivered a perfect finale after defeating Tony Ferguson by submission with a guillotine choke in the fourth round in their welterweight bout at UFC 279 on Saturday.

Diaz, 37, closed out his UFC contract with Ferguson tapping out at the 2:52 mark of the fourth round in an entertaining and also bizarre fight in Las Vegas.

During the third round, Diaz appeared unwilling to engage and turned his back to his opponent, shaking his head while walking around the cage.

That was after a tight first two rounds, before Ferguson had beaten up Diaz's leg by kicks, but the Californian would resume hostilities, landing several blows in the lead-up to the decisive fourth round.

Diaz had trapped Ferguson against the fence, with the latter escaping. But Diaz dropped Ferguson to the canvas when he came forward next, securing the submission.

The win ends Diaz's association with the UFC for now at 22-13, having been in the promotion since 2007.

"At the end of the day I love the UFC," he said inside the octagon after the bout. "I feel like I've had the longest career in the UFC, and I've had the most successful one."

There has been speculation about Diaz's next move, with a potential trilogy fight with Conor McGregor. Diaz offered an insight into his plans, while taking a pot shot at McGregor.

"I want to get out of the UFC for a minute and show al these UFC fighters how to take over and own up another sport how you're supposed to do it because Conor McGregor didn’t know how to do it," he said. "None of these other fighters know how to do it.

"I'm going to go out there and take over another profession and become the best at that. Show everybody I'm the best at that. Then I'm going to be back here to get another UFC title."

Meanwhile, Diaz's original opponent Khamzat Chimaev defeated Kevin Holland by submission in the first round with a d'Arce choke.

Chimaev forced a late shuffling of the cards after missing weight by 7.5 pounds, but made light work of Holland who submitted at 2:13 in the opening round.

Daniel Rodriguez defeated Li Jingliang by split decision while Irene Aldana landed an upkick from her back to beat Macy Chiasson by TKO.

World number one Iga Swiatek ominously declared "the sky is the limit" for her after claiming her third grand slam title with Saturday's victory over Ons Jabeur in the US Open final.

Swiatek added the 2022 US Open title to her two French Open crowns (2020 and 2022) with the 6-2 7-6 (7-5) victory over fifth seed Jabeur in one hour and 51 minutes.

The 21-year-old, who also made this year's Australian Open semi-finals, is only the seventh female player in the Open Era to win her first three grand slam finals, alongside Virginia Wade, Monica Seles, Lindsay Davenport, Jennifer Capriati, Naomi Osaka and Ashleigh Barty.

The Pole's dominance in those finals is underlined by the fact she becomes the first player to win 10 consecutive WTA-level finals in straight sets since 2000. She is also the second female player in the Open Era to win her first six sets in grand slam finals since Lindsay Davenport.

Swiatek is the first woman since Maria Sharapova in 2008 to win her third grand slam title before the age of 22. She is also the first woman to win two majors in one year since Angelique Kerber in 2016.

"At the beginning of the season I realized that maybe I can have some good results on WTA events," she told reporters. "But I wasn't sure if I was on the level yet to win actually a grand slam, especially on US Open where the surface is so fast.

"It's something that I wasn't expecting. It's also like a confirmation for me that sky is the limit. I'm proud, also surprised little bit, just happy that I was able to do that."

When pressed on her potential future dominance, she added: "I still have to realize that it's tough out there, so I want to stay on the ground.

"For now I've got to settle with what's happening right now. I'm going to see how I'm going to react. Because also winning US Open is different than winning a slam in Europe or in Australia because I don't know how the popularity thing is going to change, if it's going to change.

"For now I'm kind of going to observe and learn. For the future, I know I still have a lot to improve on court. That's something that I'm excited for because maybe it's just going to get easier to play these matches."

Swiatek's US Open triumph comes after an unconvincing lead-up on hard courts, losing early in tournaments in Toronto and Cincinnati.

The three-time major winner had gone on a 37-match winning run earlier in the year, including many victories on her preferred clay surface, before losing in the third round at Wimbledon in June.

Swiatek found it hard to compare her US Open triumph to her Roland Garros victories but admitted winning on the hard court was special.

"Roland Garros I always feel like I have more control and I feel like Philippe Chatrier is kind of my place," she said. "Here on Ashe, I still need to figure out the atmosphere. I wasn't sure before the match if this is actually my place.

"I was pretty focused and I didn't let myself get into these thoughts. I don't know if it's more than the second win on Roland Garros because I feel like back then the pressure was really on and everybody was kind of expecting me to win.

"Here I managed to go ahead of my expectations, and also I feel like people were not expecting a lot from me on hard court. So mentally I think Roland Garros was little bit tougher. But tennis-wise and physically here for sure it was tougher."

For Jabeur, the defeat means back-to-back runner-up finishes at majors after losing the Wimbledon final to Elena Rybakina in July. The Tunisian, however, remained determined to break through for a maiden grand slam title.

"Definitely Wimbledon was tough," Jabeur said. "This one is going to be tough. It's part of tennis. Winning or losing is part of it and unfortunately it is me. I struggled to win my first WTA title. It took me time so I believe this will take me time.

"The most important thing is accepting it, learning from the finals that I lost. But definitely I'm not someone that going to give up. I am sure I'm going to be in the final again. I will try my best to win it."

New York City might not be Iga Swiatek's kind of place, but she has made an exception during this US Open fortnight.

The US Open balls, controversially lighter for the women than the men, might not be up Swiatek's street, but she made an exception for them too.

And if the match-up with Ons Jabeur in the Flushing Meadows final felt almost too close to call – most were forecasting three sets, flip a coin on the winner – well, perhaps Swiatek took exception.

Rising to the occasion of a grand slam final is what exceptional players do, making exceptions in times of need, taking exception to doubters, carrying off titles. If anyone was beginning to doubt Swiatek after her mid-summer dip, this Arthur Ashe Stadium triumph banished the thought she is anything other than exceptional.

At times her play was brilliant, and when her level dropped, as it did in the second set, she was gritty. In the end, she was not as clutch as she might have liked, unable to take a match point at 6-5 on Jabeur's serve and pushed into a tie-break, but a 6-2 7-6 (7-5) victory goes into the record books.

In the end, that's all that counts. Habitual winners find a way, down one path or another.

The second set was a curious confection, both players losing their fluency but fighting hard for every point, tenacity overriding talent at times as the high stakes involved often brought the level down.

Swiatek appeared distracted by a call from the crowd at one stage, that New York bustle again getting in her head.

On the eve of the tournament, Swiatek said of New York: "I wouldn't choose it as a place to live because I'm more of a person that needs a calm place with the proper environment to rest. New York is kind of always alive. That's not for sure my place."

So, Iga, how does New York feel now?

"It's so loud, it's so crazy," she said at Saturday's trophy presentation. "There were so many temptations in the city, so many people I've met who were so inspiring. It's really mind blowing for me and I'm so proud I could handle it mentally."

The 21-year-old has a third grand slam title and a first away from the French Open, where she was champion at the pandemic-delayed slam in October 2020 and again this year.

Swiatek is a Pole on a roll when it comes to the big occasions, having won 20 consecutive sets in finals, all tournaments considered, and remarkably she is the first woman to win two or more slams in a single season since Angelique Kerber in 2016.

These two women will be numbers one and two in the new WTA rankings, and there could be a real rivalry brewing. Or there might just be a slew of these trophies coming Swiatek's way.

She is the first women to win the French Open and the US Open in the same year since Serena Williams in 2013.

If Williams does not play again, as we now expect, then Swiatek will be a very different type of figurehead for the women's game, an introvert who goes about her business quietly, but purposefully.

She becomes just the ninth woman in the Open Era to earn a third singles slam before turning 22, joining an illustrious list also featuring Maria Sharapova, Justine Henin, Serena Williams, Venus Williams, Martina Hingis, Monica Seles, Steffi Graf and Chris Evert.

As Jabeur came charging back at Swiatek in the second set, recovering from 3-0 and 4-2 adrift to take it to the tie-break, thoughts turned to what a victory for the Tunisian would have meant.

A tournament that began as the Serena Williams show, a celebration of a player who alongside sister Venus opened the door for so many black players, might have ended with the triumph of an African Arab woman, one whose driving force is to see more players from her continent, and of her ethnicity, make strides in professional tennis.

Jabeur's time will probably come, but this defeat will sting, just as losing to Elena Rybakina in the title match did at Wimbledon two months ago.

"I want to thank the crowd for cheering me on. I really tried, but Iga didn't make it easy for me," Jabeur said. "She deserved to win today. I don't like her very much right now but it's okay."

She vowed to "get that title sometime soon", but with Swiatek around that might be difficult.

Swiatek is the second woman since the slams opened themselves up to professionals in 1968 to win her first six sets in grand slam singles finals. For the record, Lindsay Davenport was the first.

This final came at the end of a tournament that Swiatek entered with low expectations. Defeat to Alize Cornet at Wimbledon halted her 37-match winning run, the longest on the women's tour this century, and it was followed by a string of results that saw Swiatek go no further than the quarter-finals in her next three events.

"Maybe I'm the kind of person who is never going to trust myself," Swiatek said, heading into the final.

She is a different model of champion, perhaps not the kind they are used to or particularly get behind in New York. There is no razzmatazz, no edge: just intense focus.

Swiatek is always doubting, but always looking for ways to improve, and now, when it comes to finals, always getting the job done.

US Open runner-up Ons Jabeur hopes her historic run to the final at Flushing Meadows can help inspire future generations of players from African and Arab nations.

Tunisian Jabeur went down 6-2 7-6 (7-5) to world number one Iga Swiatek in Saturday's thrilling final at Arthur Ashe Stadium.

The 28-year-old was the first African female player to reach the singles final at the US Open in the Open Era, having earlier this year become the first such player to reach the showpiece match of a grand slam in the Open Era.

Jabeur lost 3-6 6-2 6-2 to Elena Rybakina at Wimbledon, though despite not winning a set against Swiatek, gave a better account of herself this time around.

It has been some rise for Jabeur, who had previously never reached a semi-final in 20 previous major appearances. She will be the world number two when the new WTA rankings are confirmed on Monday.

An African player has not won a grand slam singles title since 1981, when Johan Kriek triumphed at the Australian Open. He retained his title a year later, yet was competing for the United States.

Indeed, a player from the continent, male or female, has not enjoyed success at any major since Cara Black won in the mixed doubles at Wimbledon in 2010, but Jabeur is hoping that will soon change.

"I want to thank the crowd for cheering me on, I really tried, she deserved to win today – I don't like her very much right now, but it's okay," Jabeur smiled as she hailed Swiatek's performance in her on-court interview.

"An amazing two weeks to be honest, making up for my final at Wimbledon. I'm going to keep working hard and we'll get that title sometime soon."

Asked how proud she was of her history making season, Jabeur replied: "It really means a lot and I try to push myself to do more. Getting the major is one of the goals.

"Hopefully I can inspire more and more generations, that's the goal and I get inspired by so many champions. Thank you also to my team, always pushing me.

"We want more and more kids coming here hopefully, I just really hope I can inspire more. This is just the beginning."

Jabeur is the first player to reach the final at both Wimbledon and the US Open in the same season since the great Serena Williams did so in 2019, and only the seventh player overall since the turn of the century.

After struggling to find rhythm in the first set, the fifth seed hit back in the second, coming from 4-2 down to restore parity and subsequently save the first of Swiatek's championship points en route to forcing a tie-break.

Jabeur found herself serving for the set at 5-4 up, yet a wonderful Swiatek forehand and a sloppy shot into the net handed her opponent a second bite at the cherry.

The Pole took it thanks to an overhit Jabeur forehand, meaning the Tunisian has now lost seven of her 10 Tour-level finals, and all three of the showpiece matches she has played in on hard courts.

Matt LaFleur can join a select NFL club if the Green Bay Packers prevail in what should be an enthralling NFC North clash with the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1.

LaFleur has enjoyed a stunning start to his head coaching career in Green Bay, guiding the Packers to two NFC Championship Game appearances in the past three seasons.

He has compiled a 39-10 regular-season record, and no head coach has won more games in his first three seasons, with LaFleur surpassing George Seifert, who won 38 after taking over from the great Bill Walsh with the San Francisco 49ers.

Should he guide the Packers to triumph in Minnesota, LaFleur will become the third head coach in NFL history with 40 wins through 50 career games, joining Paul Brown (41) and Chuck Knox (40).

The Packers lost a 34-31 thriller on the road against the Vikings last year and, while the outcome is far from guaranteed, there is a strong chance this game will also be high scoring.

Indeed, in their 22 road games against the Vikings this century, Green Bay have scored 30 or more points in 10 of them. That is tied for the most 30-point games by an NFL team at a single opponent in that time with the New England Patriots at the Buffalo Bills. 

The Packers will not have Davante Adams after his blockbuster offseason trade to the Las Vegas Raiders.

Yet history says Aaron Rodgers will have no problem putting up points despite the departure of his former favourite target.

Since becoming Green Bay’s starter in 2008, Rodgers has thrown 169 touchdowns against division opponents compared to 25 interceptions.

By comparison, the Vikings have 121 passing touchdowns and 73 interceptions against the NFC North in that span.

A trip to Minnesota represents an early test of the Packers' Super Bowl credentials, but the numbers point to them passing it and LaFleur bringing up win 40.

Iga Swiatek reflected on a "mindblowing" Flushing Meadows experience after clinching her first US Open title with yet another straight-sets final win.

Swiatek defeated Ons Jabeur 6-2 7-6 (7-5) in New York on Saturday to win her third major – all of them in straight sets.

The world number one is only the second WTA player to win her first six grand slam final sets in the Open Era, after Lindsay Davenport.

In fact, Swiatek has now won her past 10 finals in two sets, becoming the first woman to do so in the 21st century.

Seven of those have come in 2022 – Serena Williams, in 2014, was the last player to win as many Tour-level finals in a season – as Swiatek has dominated.

However, the Pole explained after beating Jabeur how "challenging" it was to win a second slam in the same season, having already taken the title at the French Open.

Angelique Kerber was the last WTA player to win multiple majors in a single year back in 2016, while Williams, in 2013, was the last to double up at Roland Garros and Flushing Meadows.

Asked how she rose to the occasion once again, Swiatek replied: "I don't know, honestly.

"I'm just not expecting a lot. Especially before this tournament, it was such a challenging time. Coming back after wining a grand slam is always tricky, even if Roland Garros was the second one.

"I really needed to stay composed and focused on the goals.

"For sure this tournament was really challenging also, because it's New York, it's so hard, it's so crazy. There were so many temptations in the city, so many people I've met who were so inspiring.

"It's really mindblowing for me. I'm so proud I could handle it mentally."

This was Swiatek's fifth match against Jabeur, and victory gave her a 3-2 lead in their head-to-head.

"Ons, such an amazing tournament, such an amazing season," the top seed added. "I know this is already a pretty nice rivalry.

"I know we're going to have many more, and I'm pretty sure you're going to win some of them, so don't worry."

Swiatek is the first Polish female player to win the US Open in the Open Era, and she was asked how her latest success would be received.

"I don't know. I've got to go back home and check," she answered. "I'm pretty sure it's a lot; I can even hear what's going on right now in the stadium.

"Right now, we've got to stay united and really support ourselves and stay together. I'm pretty happy I could unite people with our sport, and I'm proud tennis is getting more and more popular at home."

Iga Swiatek turned in a stellar display befitting of her talent as she sealed the US Open title with a 6-2 7-6 (7-5) defeat of Ons Jabeur.

Swiatek has perhaps been short of her very best in New York but, despite a second-set wobble, found her level on Saturday to win a third major – the youngest player to do so since Maria Sharapova in 2008. 

Jabeur, the first woman to reach the final of Wimbledon and the US Open in the same season since Serena Williams in 2019, gave her all, forcing the world number one into a real battle in the middle of a tense second set.

It came down to a tie-break, but having won her last nine successive WTA finals in straight sets, Swiatek found the composure to pull through and cement her place at the summit of the game.

Nerves had Jabeur on the back foot from the off, with the Tunisian – the first African female to reach the singles final at Flushing Meadows in the Open Era – dropping serve to love to trail 2-0, with Swiatek swiftly going three to the good.

Jabeur stopped the rot for 3-1 before a display of power off both forehand and backhand gave the world number five two break points, the second of which she took, yet she could not keep the momentum going on her serve, conceding again and, this time, Swiatek did not let up, taking the set when her opponent sent a simple volley long.

Like in the first set, it was 2-0 when Swiatek broke, this time clipping a backhand down the line after latching onto a weak volley, Jabeur unable to assert any control.

A supreme backhand saw Swiatek take the next game, too, though she squandered a break chance when she appeared to be distracted by a shout from the crowd.

The pendulum swung firmly in Jabeur's favour when she made it 4-4, only for the 28-year-old to then pass up three break points.

Having dug deep to get through Jabeur's fightback, Swiatek had championship point at 40-30 up in the 12th game. As the crowd held their breath, the youngster changed racquets.

Perhaps it was forced, perhaps a ploy. Either way, the change backfired, Jabeur rolling off three successive points to force a tie-break. 

Jabeur kicked a ball into the crowd in anger after an overhit forehand gifted Swiatek a 4-2 lead, but a trio of points mounted the pressure back to the other side of the court.

Yet it was pressure that Swiatek was able to handle, seeing out two Jabeur serves to turn the tables back in her favour and, on this occasion, she prevailed - Jabeur hitting long to end her brave fight.

Data Slam: Swiatek's year of dominance 

Jabeur and Swiatek entered Saturday's showpiece with the most wins in 2022 and the latter has now matched former world number one Ash Barty's record of 57 victories in a single season (Set in 2019), a haul the 21-year-old will surely overtake.

The first top-seeded female player to reach the final at the US Open since Williams in 2014, Swiatek has matched the 23-time grand slam champion in another metric, too, becoming the first player to win seven titles in a single season since the American great did so eight years ago.

Swiatek is only the ninth player in the Open Era to win her third grand slam title before turning 22, after Sharapova, Justine Henin, both Williams sisters, Martina Hingis, Monica Seles, Steffi Graf and Chris Evert.

ACES/DOUBLE FAULTS

Swiatek – 1/0

Jabeur – 2/4

WINNERS/UNFORCED ERRORS

Swiatek – 19/30

Jabeur – 14/33

BREAK POINTS WON

Swiatek – 5/12

Jabeur – 3/9

The New York Jets placed starting left tackle Duane Brown on injured reserve on Saturday, keeping him out of the team's first four games of the season at the very least. 

Brown, 37, suffered a shoulder injury in practice on Monday and was held out of team activities for the rest of the week. 

The 15th-year veteran was ruled out for Sunday's season opener against the Baltimore Ravens on Friday, but his injured reserve status opens a roster spot for the Jets. 

Brown's is just the latest injury for a New York team trying to escape the AFC East cellar. 

Brown was signed to a two-year, $22million contract last month after tackle Mekhi Becton was shut down for the season with a fractured right kneecap. 

Jets starting quarterback Zach Wilson will miss at least three games as he recovers from surgery to repair a non-contact knee injury suffered in a preseason game. Joe Flacco will start under center in the meantime. 

Brown was a First-Team All-Pro choice in 2012 and has been selected to five Pro Bowls while playing for the Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks. 

Lewis Hamilton joked he is considering taking his iPad into the cockpit with him at the Italian Grand Prix as he expects to spend much of the race stuck behind other cars.

The Mercedes driver qualified fifth on Saturday, 1.3 seconds behind pole-winner Charles Leclerc, but will start at the back of the grid due to his penalty for a power unit change.

Hamilton is a five-time winner at Monza, but he is without a victory this season in what is his longest ever run without finishing top of the podium.

And the Briton believes he will have to find other means of entertainment on Sunday as he anticipates a bunched grid due to drivers using their Drag Reduction Systems (DRS).

"I'm imagining tomorrow everyone's going to be in a DRS train and it's just going to be sitting there and just waiting for strategy and tyre degradation and those sorts," he said.

"It's a one-stop easy tomorrow, generally, and so strategy won't do too much. But I hope that there's safety cars and all those sorts of things.

"I was thinking of just taking my iPad with me in the race and when I'm in the DRS line just watch the new Game of Thrones."

Leclerc secured pole for Ferrari at their home grand prix, but the starting grid was otherwise complicated by a raft of penalties issued to nine drivers.

Mercedes' George Russell will start in second, while McLaren pair Lando Norris and Daniel Ricciardo are third and fourth respectively, followed by Pierre Gasly of AlphaTauri.

Charles Leclerc hopes this is the "special weekend" Ferrari put their season of mishaps behind them at their home race at Monza.

Scuderia superstar Leclerc will start from pole at the Italian Grand Prix after qualifying fastest from a frantic Saturday session that saw penalties handed out to nine rival drivers.

Max Verstappen was among them, forcing him to start from seventh rather than second, but Ferrari have repeatedly squandered strong positions previously this season.

Indeed, this is a remarkable eighth pole of 2022 for Leclerc, but he has only three wins, retiring on three occasions after starting from the front of the grid.

The Monegasque is 109 points behind Verstappen in the title race, while Ferrari are 135 back on Red Bull in the constructors' championship.

The home fans will want to see those gaps cut on Sunday, with Ferrari chairman John Elkann and Italian president Sergio Mattarella set to be in the crowd.

"I think overall, after each mistake, we learned from them and we try to be better as a team," Leclerc said.

"It's not because we are here in Monza that it's more important than other races to not do any mistakes. We need to become a team that does no mistakes wherever we go.

"Yeah, it is a special weekend for us, but the target for us doesn't change. We just need to have a clean race and a good race. We'll be targeting that, and let's see."

Verstappen has never won the Italian GP, whereas Leclerc was triumphant in 2019, celebrating his second career win immediately after his first.

Leclerc is not relying on that memory to help him, though, believing he is an entirely different driver now than he was three years ago.

"I think the experience that I gained from 2019 to now will be more helpful than the experience in 2019," he explained.

"I was a very, very different driver, struggling a lot in races at the time, and now I'm in a much better place.

"In 2019, I was not so confident going into the race. This year, it's better, and honestly the feeling was really good on the high fuel.

"It's not going to be easy, because for sure Max will be extremely quick and will be coming back, but I'm sure that we can make this work."

Alexandra Eala became the first tennis player representing the Philippines to win a grand slam singles title as the Rafael Nadal Academy star lifted the US Open girls' trophy.

The 17-year-old beat the Czech Republic's junior French Open winner Lucie Havlickova 6-2 6-4 and did not drop a set in all six singles matches she played in New York.

As well as training at 22-time grand slam winner Nadal's academy in Mallorca for a number of years, Eala has taken inspiration from the Spanish left-hander too.

"I think my idol is obviously Rafa. But I'm not just saying that because I'm in his academy," she said.

"He's a very good role model, something a lot of people should idolise and try to be. The biggest thing I notice in Rafa is how he fights till the end, how his thoughts are so clear. He's so calm, but at the same time so fired up. I think I really tried to channel that energy during this whole week.

"That's also what I tried to show, to people who look up to me, to think with a clear head and to not act irrationally."

Eala was the 10th seed in New York and toppled the second seed in the title match, for a result she described as "very overwhelming".

Last year's women's singles runner-up Leylah Fernandez is a player whose mother is Filipino Canadian, while Emma Raducanu, who beat Fernandez, has a Chinese mother.

"I think the final last year was very groundbreaking, something very special," said Eala. "They're both young and both from diverse backgrounds. It definitely hit a lot of people."

The provisional Formula One grid for the Italian Grand Prix in Monza has been announced by the FIA, hours after the conclusion of Saturday's qualifying.

Ferrari's Charles Leclerc secured pole position for the team's home Grand Prix, but the starting grid for Sunday's race was complicated by a raft of penalties issued to a total of nine drivers.

That included championship leader Max Verstappen and Leclerc's team-mate Carlos Sainz, who put in the second and third-fastest laps in Q3, and there was initial confusion on how the penalties across the grid would be applied.

Verstappen, handed a five-place penalty, will start the race from seventh following a debate as to whether he would start from the second row in fourth, depending on whether that penalty was applied before or after others on the grid.

Confusion was not just limited to supporters, as the teams and drivers themselves were left in limbo – AlphaTauri's Pierre Gasly taking to social media to ask for clarification, before it was announced he would start from fifth.

"Can someone tell me in which position I will start tomorrow's race?" he asked.

Following the raft of penalties issued, which comes after seven grid penalties were issued in the French Grand Prix, Mercedes' George Russell has suggested the procedure should be changed.

"We're trying to be more sustainable in F1, cutting down the parts and engines we use across a season," he said.

"With more and more races, we have three engines to take us through 23 races, running flat-out on a single engine.

"It's a huge amount. It's normal there are going to be failures along the way. I'm sure F1 will have a rethink along the way."

PROVISIONAL GRID

1. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)

2. George Russell (Mercedes)

3. Lando Norris (McLaren)

4. Daniel Ricciardo (McLaren)

5. Pierre Gasly (AlphaTauri)

6. Fernando Alonso (Alpine)

7. Max Verstappen (Red Bull)

8. Nyck de Vries (Williams)

9. Guanyu Zhou (Alfa Romeo)

10. Nicholas Latifi (Williams)

The Trey Lance discussion has been an impossible one to escape during the NFL's long offseason.

That is largely because the circumstances in which he takes his first steps as a starter are unprecedented.

Lance was selected by the 49ers with the third overall pick in last year's draft after they traded three first-round selections for the right to move into that slot.

After a rookie year largely spent watching on the sideline, he now steps in to start at the most important position for a team who were minutes away from reaching a second Super Bowl in three years last season, which ended in heart-breaking defeat to the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game.

Young quarterbacks have taken over Super Bowl-calibre teams in years gone by. Aaron Rodgers took over from Brett Favre in 2008 after the Green Bay Packers had agonisingly lost the NFC Championship Game to the New York Giants in overtime.

But Rodgers had spent three years as Favre's backup in an era where spending an apprenticeship on the bench was de rigueur for highly drafted quarterbacks, and he had previously produced two seasons of stellar play for a Power 5 school during his college career with the Cal Bears.

Lance, by contrast, played just one full season of college ball at North Dakota State in the FCS – college football's second tier – back in 2019, losing the chance to add to his experience as the coronavirus pandemic wiped out his 2020 campaign with the Bison, save for one exhibition that essentially served as a pre-draft audition for the dual-threat signal-caller.

A quarterback of such little experience being given the keys to one of the best teams in the NFL is an objectively fascinating situation, one made even more intriguing by the Niners' decision to hang on to Jimmy Garoppolo, his predecessor, after failing to find a partner for a potential trade.

Rodgers did not have Favre looming as the backup in Green Bay. Favre retired, then came back, but was traded to the New York Jets, leaving Rodgers to plot his path to becoming one of the all-time greats.

Lance will be tasked with keeping a win-now team firmly in contention for a Super Bowl title while dealing with the possibility of the man who twice helped the 49ers to the cusp of the Lombardi Trophy stepping in should he struggle.

The flashes Lance produced in his two starts in relief of an injured Garoppolo last season were promising, but with the 49ers set to kick off their new era against the Chicago Bears on Sunday, can he immediately rise to the challenge of leading the NFL's most interesting team on a deep playoff run they hope will end with a sixth league championship? 

An ideal offensive ecosystem

In order to answer that question, it is important to look at just how strong Lance's supporting cast is.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch have put together one of the most complete rosters in the NFL having taken over a team in need of a colossal rebuild in 2017.

Shanahan himself is a key reason for confidence the transition to Lance will work. No play-caller in the NFL does a better job of consistently putting his receivers in space and his quarterback in favourable situations, while his diverse running torments opposing defenses year in, year out.

The league's pre-eminent play-caller also has experience of building an offense around a dual-threat quarterback, having done so while working as offensive coordinator for the Washington Commanders under his father Mike as Robert Griffin III produced an Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign.

Shanahan's play-calling acumen is a critical factor in the 49ers' ceaseless efficiency on offense. The 49ers' offense finished last season ranked first in Stats Perform's Efficiency Versus Expected (EVE) metric. EVE looks at down, distance, yards from goal, quarter, time remaining and score difference. Using those six factors, Stats Perform trained a model to predict yardage output for any game situation. From there, the projected yards are compared to the actual yards gained or prevented in those situations.

But San Francisco's superiority in that metric would not be possible without a star-studded cast of offensive skill-position players, which Stats Perform AI ranks as the sixth-best in the NFL coming into the year.

Between Deebo Samuel, whose ability to excel as a dual wide receiver-running back inspired the Niners' turnaround from a 3-5 team to one who came within a whisker of an eighth Super Bowl appearance, fellow wideout Brandon Aiyuk and All-Pro tight end George Kittle, Lance is not short of targets who will make his life much easier.

A run game that ranked eighth in explosive runs of 10 yards or more in 2021 with 58 – a tally Lance's presence will surely embellish – will also provide him with plenty of assistance, as will a defense that has a compelling case for being considered the league's gold standard.

Stellar defensive support

The 49ers' Divisional Round win over the Green Bay Packers last season perhaps provided the clearest evidence yet as to the value of their outstanding defense.

San Francisco shackled back-to-back MVP Rodgers, limiting Green Bay to one touchdown and field goal in an improbable 13-10 road win against the number one seed in the snow at Lambeau Field.

Defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans called a masterful game as the 49ers' defensive front sacked Rodgers five times, and it is the seemingly endless supply of depth on the defensive line that makes Ryans' group arguably the league's most fearsome.

The 49ers led the league in pass rush win rate and did so while blitzing at the fifth-lowest rate in the NFL (20.4 per cent). That D-line now heads into 2022 arguably in an even stronger position. Nick Bosa, coming off a 15.5-sack season, leads an edge rusher rotation that is six players deep and includes a rookie, in second-round pick Drake Jackson, whose pressure rate of 24.2 per cent was fifth among draft prospects at his position last year. 

On the interior, the 49ers are hoping former first-round pick Javon Kinlaw, with his hulking 6ft 5in, 319-pound frame, can put it all together in his third season following knee surgery and form an imposing tandem with Arik Armstead, whose 2021 stunt-adjusted pass rush win rate of 44.34 per cent was fifth among defensive tackles (min. 100 matchups).

Behind the D-line, the coverage versatility of a linebacker core headlined by the game's best in Fred Warner opens a wealth of options for Ryans, yet it may be the additions in the secondary that solidify his defense as the league's elite this season.

The 49ers are starting a fifth-round rookie at nickel corner. That is a frightening sentence on the surface, but Samuel Womack III allowed a burn rate – which measures how often a receiver wins his matchup with a defender on a play where he is targeted – of just 33.3 per cent in his final year with Toledo. That was tied for the best among draftable corners. He backed up those numbers with a preseason that saw him record two interceptions.

While the 49ers are hoping Womack's leap to the highest level is seamless, it is the performance of free-agent signing Charvarius 'Mooney' Ward that could determine the ceiling of this defense. Ward's burn rate of 39.8 per cent was the fourth-best among corners with at least 50 targets last year, with the former Kansas City Chief fifth in burn yards per target (7.96).

The acquisitions of Ward and Womack have significantly strengthened the cornerback room. Though there is justified concern about a lack of depth at safety, Ward's arrival may facilitate the 49ers leaning more on the man coverage in which he specialises, enabling San Francisco to blitz up front more often and perhaps even improve their pressure numbers from a year ago.

Regardless of whether the pressure statistics do get even better, it is clear Lance is entering an outstanding ecosystem for a young quarterback. The 49ers have the talent to survive the ups and downs he may experience. The unknown is whether Lance can take advantage of his environment to help this team realise their glaringly obvious potential by enhancing an already excellent offense.

Becoming the 'because of' QB

Lance is a substantial departure from what the 49ers are used to at quarterback, and there are upsides and downsides to that change in direction.

There is no question Lance will significantly increase the 49ers' threat on deep passes. Last season, Garoppolo completed just nine passes of 21 air yards or more across the entire 2021 season. Lance completed four in his 10 full quarters of play as a rookie.

On top of that, Lance's air yards per attempt average of 10.1 was the second-highest in the NFL among quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts.

While the downfield passing game figures to be more explosive, Lance will need to improve in one area where Garoppolo has traditionally excelled.

Garoppolo has consistently done an impressive job of leading his receivers to the ball on throws over the middle, setting up regular opportunities for yardage after the catch.

Over the last three seasons, Garoppolo has averaged 6.7 yards after the catch (YAC) on his completed passes, almost a full yard more than his nearest challenger Patrick Mahomes (6.0).

The same sort of accuracy on throws where the receivers can relieve the burden on the quarterback with YAC was lacking from Lance during the preseason, and curbing a tendency to put those passes behind his intended target will be critical for him to realise his potential in Shanahan's vaunted offensive scheme.

But Shanahan is making a calculated trade-off in switching to Lance. The 'gimme' plays Garoppolo can hit with ease may not come as easy with Lance, but the 49ers will benefit from the 'second reaction' plays the new quarterback can make when the pocket breaks down.

Though Garoppolo can make throws on the move, the improvisation factor is significantly higher with Lance, who last season averaged a gaudy 13.06 air yards throwing on the run. 

On top of his threat as a downfield passer in such situations, Lance also put 8.45 yards per carry on scrambles in 2021. Only Jameis Winston (8.67) had more among quarterbacks with at least 10 scrambles.

Lance adds new dimensions to the 49er offense, but he also has shown substantial promise in a staple feature of the Shanahan attack.

Though it was on a small sample size, Lance displayed encouraging accuracy in the play-action game as a rookie. Ten of his 12 play-action throws were well-thrown, with Lance averaging 14.67 air yards on those attempts.

It is far too early to definitively say Lance will continue to be as accurate on play-action over the course of a full season. However, given the effectiveness of the 49er run game, the play-action should still continue to be extremely effective, with Lance's prowess on the ground giving defenders more to think about when he fakes the hand-off.

Former Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills and Seattle Seahawks head coach Chuck Knox once said: "There are two kinds of quarterbacks. There is what I call the 'because of' quarterback and the 'with' quarterback. You win 'because of' Joe Montana or John Elway. You win 'with' Phil Simms or Doug Williams."

Garoppolo has produced game-winning performances for San Francisco, but while he has operated the offense extremely efficiently, he is firmly in the 'win with' category. In the biggest games where the team has asked him to put them over the top, he has not delivered.

The 49ers moved up for Lance due to their belief he can be a 'because of' quarterback. He may not perform with the same efficiency as Garoppolo, but he has already delivered showings to suggest he can be the decisive factor for a team who have come agonisingly close to glory. Lance's ability to reproduce those flashes over the course of an entire season will determine whether the 49ers were right in their assessment.