We are firmly in the business end of the 2022 NFL season.
Seven teams have already clinched their place in the postseason and a further seven will join them in the final three weeks of the campaign.
This is the time of year when room for error is diminished in games that have a huge bearing on how the final playoff field shakes out.
As such, festive feeling will be thin on the ground for those teams playing in such encounters during this weekend's Christmas schedule who come up short.
So often, though, these contests are decided by the game within the game, and here Stats Perform looks at three of the most important Week 16 clashes and the personnel matchups that could decide them.
New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals
Win Probability: Patriots 52.0 per cent
Key Matchup: Matthew Judon and Josh Uche vs. Bengals offensive line
The Patriots' hopes of claiming a Wild Card berth took a massive blow in bizarre circumstances last week as Jakobi Meyers' inexplicable last-second lateral landed in the grateful arms of Las Vegas Raiders pass rusher Chandler Jones, who stiff-armed Mac Jones into the turf and raced into the endzone to deny New England a chance of an overtime win.
At 7-7, they are still just a game behind the Miami Dolphins and must climb off the mat, though they are this week tasked with doing so against one of the hottest teams in football.
The 10-4 Bengals have a one-game edge over the Baltimore Ravens in the race for the AFC North division title, yet there is a matchup the Patriots can look to exploit in this one.
While Cincinnati's offensive line has improved in terms of preventing pressure on Joe Burrow, it remains in the bottom half of the NFL in pass block win rate, in which the Bengals rank 24th.
In Judon and Uche, the Patriots possess a pair of pass rushers who can cause the Cincinnati O-Line huge problems. Judon is second in the NFL in sacks (14.5), behind only Nick Bosa of the San Francisco 49ers, while Uche has 10.5, all of which have come across his last seven games.
Both Judon (40.08 per cent) and Uche (42.38 per cent) possess pass rush win rates way above the average for edge players of 28.74 per cent, and if they are at their best, they could help eradicate the advantage the Bengals have at quarterback and tilt the game in New England's favour.
Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs
Win Probability: Chiefs 80.4 per cent
Key Matchup: Seattle defensive backs vs. Chiefs receivers
Like the Patriots, the Seahawks' prospects of reaching the postseason are in significant jeopardy.
Their hopes of winning the NFC West are gone after the 49ers clinched the division title in Seattle by completing their first sweep of the Seahawks since 2011 in Week 15.
That leaves Seattle fighting for a Wild Card, and the odds are very much against them in this one against a Chiefs team who are in a battle for the AFC's one seed with the Buffalo Bills.
Part of the reason why the Seahawks are still in the mix is the play of their young but talented secondary, which ranks 13th in the NFL in pass coverage win rate according to Stats Perform's matchup data.
Rookie cornerback Tariq Woolen has enjoyed an outstanding first season for Seattle, with his combined open percentage allowed across man and zone coverage of 22.75 the seventh-best among corners with at least 100 total matchups.
The Chiefs' pass-catchers are 13th in terms of winning their coverage matchups in 2022, a year in which the loss of Tyreek Hill has undoubtedly had an impact.
Yet with 82.1 per cent of Patrick Mahomes' throws this season going to an open target, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid continues to excel at scheming receivers into space.
For the Seahawks to have any hope of pulling off a sizeable upset, their secondary must limit the chances for the Chiefs' receivers to enjoy such freedom.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Win Probability: Cowboys 59 per cent
Key Matchup: Eagles offensive line vs. Cowboys pass rush
This NFC East matchup may have lost some of its lustre with the Eagles needing a meltdown to surrender the division title to the Cowboys and Jalen Hurts out because of a shoulder injury.
But that should not take away from the true heavyweight fight this game provides in the trenches.
Micah Parsons may be losing ground in the Defensive Player of the Year race, but he remains the headline act for a defense that is first in the NFL in pass rush win rate.
That would normally give the Cowboys a clear edge in a matchup with every offensive line, but not with this one.
Philadelphia's O-line leads the league in pass block win rate, with the Eagles allowing a pressure rate of 32.9 per cent that is the fourth-best in the NFL.
The Eagles maintaining their strength up front against Parsons and Co. will obviously be critical to Philadelphia as they seek to overcome the absence of Hurts.
There is no substitute for the value Hurts brings in the run game, but the Cowboys' defense has shown enough vulnerability to suggest backup quarterback Gardner Minshew can have success against Dallas, provided the offensive line wins the battle up front and allows the Eagles to stay on schedule.
After early flurry, quarterbacks finally come off board late in NFL draft
After a run of quarterbacks were selected early in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, it took quite a while for any other signal-callers to come off the board.
That 137-pick drought ended in the fifth round on Saturday when the New Orleans Saints took South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler with the 150th overall pick.
The New York Jets took Jordan Travis from Florida State 21 picks later and the New England Patriots used the 193rd selection on Tennessee QB Joe Milton III.
The final two quarterbacks drafted were Kentucky’s Devin Leary by the Baltimore Ravens with the 218th overall pick and the Green Bay Packers took Michael Pratt of Tulane, 245th.
This was just the third time in the common draft era that a quarterback wasn’t selected in the second or third rounds.
While some of the quarterbacks taken in the first round could very well find themselves starting in the NFL next season, it’s highly unlikely that any of the ones taken in the fifth round or later will be starting anytime soon.
Rattler could compete for the backup spot to starter David Carr now that Jameis Winston has departed from that role. His main competition figures to be Jake Haener, the Saints’ fourth-round selection in the 2023 draft, or Kellen Mond.
The backup role won’t be an option for Milton III in New England, barring injury. The Patriots signed veteran Jacoby Brissett to be their starter, or at least compete for that job with third overall pick Drake Maye.
Milton could be a No. 3 option if the team decides to move on from Bailey Zappe, who hasn’t impressed in 14 NFL games the past two seasons with 11 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
Travis is in a similar situation with the Jets, behind starter Aaron Rodgers and veteran backup Tyrod Taylor.
Travis is a long-term project, who, like Rodgers, is attempting to return from a major injury – a gruesome broken ankle last November.
Leary could figure in a backup role with the Ravens soon if not this season. Josh Johnson was signed for that spot, but he is 37 and the strong-armed Leary, an older prospect at 25, could serve as backup as soon as 2025.
Pratt has started 44 games at Tulane over the last four years, so he brings plenty of experience to Green Bay. He could compete with 2023 draft pick Sean Clifford to back up Jordan Love.
West Ham 2-2 Liverpool: Antonio header damages Reds' dwindling title chances
Liverpool suffered another blow to their dwindling Premier League title hopes as Michail Antonio's late header snatched a 2-2 draw for West Ham at London Stadium.
Jurgen Klopp's side disappointed in Wednesday's 2-0 defeat against Everton, with Jarrod Bowen's goal and assist inflicting further pain for the Reds on Saturday.
Liverpool responded well to Bowen's first-half opener, edging ahead through Alphonse Areola's own goal after Andy Robertson's 48th-minute leveller, only for Bowen to tee up Antonio's headed equaliser 13 minutes from time.
This draw left Liverpool two points behind leaders Arsenal ahead of the Gunners’ Sunday meeting with Tottenham and one behind Manchester City – who have two games in hand on the Reds – while West Ham remain eighth.
A tepid opening befitted two sides struggling for form as both failed to carve out any gilt-edged opportunities.
Liverpool wanted a 27th-minute penalty for Angelo Ogbonna's tackle on Cody Gakpo and, though an offside call against Luis Diaz silenced those appeals, that passage livened the game up.
Harvey Elliott's curling attempt was held by Areola after Vladimir Coufal went close at the other end, before Diaz blasted a low strike against the West Ham goalkeeper's right-hand post.
Bowen saw a deflected drive parried behind by Alisson but the West Ham forward headed Mohammed Kudus' left-wing delivery into the far corner from the resulting set-piece two minutes before the break.
Ryan Gravenberch flashed a powerful half-volley over immediately after the interval – and West Ham did not heed that warning sign.
Diaz cut inside from the left to find Robertson before a slight deflection off Lucas Paqueta saw Areola caught off-guard as the left-back found the bottom-left corner via the post.
Gravenberch arrowed narrowly wide before one-way traffic finally paid dividends midway through the second half when Gakpo's miscued strike from Trent Alexander-Arnold's corner forced Areola to turn into his own net after a deflection off Tomas Soucek.
Alisson kept his side ahead with a remarkable stretching stop to thwart Emerson's volley, yet the Liverpool goalkeeper was powerless when Antonio headed into the top-right corner from Bowen's right-wing centre.
Elliott almost snatched all three points in the 89th minute but his dipping effort found the top of the crossbar rather than the right-hand corner from long range.
Reds falter once again
Under Klopp, Liverpool have only won more Premier League games against Crystal Palace (13) than West Ham (12).
Yet the visiting Reds faltered once more as what appeared to be a promising season continues to unravel in disappointing fashion for Klopp's final campaign.
Having threatened an unlikely quadruple at the start of March, Liverpool now require a minor miracle – and slip-ups from Man City and Arsenal – to muster a slight shot at the title.
Bowen on target but West Ham struggle at home
Bowen had already found the net in the Premier League and EFL Cup against Liverpool this season and became just the second West Ham player to score in three different games with the Reds in a single campaign – after Geoff Hurst in 1964-65.
His well-taken headed opener eased the nervous home crowd, yet this draw left West Ham with just one win from their last nine Premier League home games.
That concerning home form may be what costs David Moyes’ side a higher finish. The Hammers trail seventh-placed Newcastle United by a point, despite the Magpies playing two games fewer.
Swiatek soars into Madrid Open last 16 after dropping just two games against Cirstea
Iga Swiatek stormed through to the Madrid Open last 16 following a dominant straight-sets victory over Sorana Cirstea.
The world number one dropped just two games as she inflicted a comprehensive 6-1 6-1 rout on her Romanian opponent in the Spanish capital.
Swiatek, who was runner-up to Aryna Sabalenka in last year's event, will play Sara Sorribes Tormo in the round of 16 after the Spaniard defeated two-time Australian Open champion Victoria Azarenka.
The Pole is now 26-4 for the season, in which she has already triumphed at the Qatar Open and Indian Wells Open, as she eyes the ninth WTA 1000 singles title of her career.
Data debrief
Swiatek is through to her sixth round of 16 from seven main-draw appearances in WTA 1000 events on clay (85.7 per cent) - the highest percentage rate among players with at least five such appearances since the format's introduction in 2009.
The three-time French Open champion also boasts the best WTA match win rate of any player since 2000 on clay (87 per cent). Overall, only Chris Evert (94.5 per cent), Margaret Court (89.5 per cent) and Steffi Graf (89.2 per cent) boast a higher percentage in the Open Era.
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