Not every NFL week is going to be filled with great games. The law of averages says there will be some clunkers.
But it only takes one game to spice up a Sunday, and Week 7 has such a contest in the form of a Super Bowl rematch.
The Kansas City Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV three seasons ago, the Niners failing to finish the job in Miami having led 20-10 with seven minutes remaining.
San Francisco's first chance for a measure of revenge comes on Sunday, when the 49ers host the Chiefs in a game SmartRatings sees as the best of the week.
SmartRatings is a Stats Perform AI-based platform that provides excitement ratings for sporting events, teams and players. The excitement scale, ranging from 0-100, is powered by complex algorithms that are predicated upon six primary variables: pace, parity, novelty, momentum, context and social buzz.
The weight of each variable is dynamic and adapts as a season progresses. The excitement scale translates to the following general sub-ranges: 0-39 (Dull Game), 40-64 (OK Game), 65-84 (Good Game), 85-100 (Great Game).
Here, we take a look at Chiefs-49ers clash in the Bay Area and two other games viewed as the most exciting of Week 7 and the key matchups that could decide them.
Green Bay Packers @ Washington Commanders
SmartRating: 54
Win Probability: Packers 74.2%
Key Matchup: Allen Lazard vs. Washington cornerbacks
Randall Cobb's injury means Aaron Rodgers has even fewer receivers he can trust, so Lazard can expect plenty of targets to come his way as the Packers look to end a two-game losing run.
The numbers suggest Lazard will be able to find joy against a vulnerable Washington secondary.
Lazard has won his matchup with a defender, which Stats Perform labels as a 'burn', on 21 of his 32 targets. His burn rate of 65.6 per cent is above the league average of 60.6 for receivers with a minimum of 20 targets.
He has produced a big play on 12 of those targets, good for a big play rate of 37.2 that is 10th among wideouts (min. 20 targets).
Washington's starting corners, Benjamin St. Juste and Kendall Fuller, have allowed 12.27 and 13.15 burn yards per target respectively -- the average for corners with at least 20 targets is 10.05.
Both have given up a big play on over 30 per cent of their targets -- St. Juste (31.3%), Fuller (36%) -- at a position where the average is 25.5. In other words, Rodgers and Lazard should theoretically be able to thrive against both starting corners. If they do, the Packers' passing game might finally get on track and boost Green Bay's hopes of a deep playoff push many anticipated before their underwhelming start.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
SmartRating: 60
Win Probability: Colts 54.4%
Key Matchup: Jeffery Simmons vs. Quenton Nelson
The AFC South is turning into a dogfight, with the 3-2 Titans leading the 3-2-1 Colts by half a game going into this divisional clash.
For the Colts to make sure the tie with the Houston Texans that separates them and the Titans does not prove costly down the stretch, they need to knock off Tennessee.
Doing that will involve stopping Jeffery Simmons, who has been a force on the interior of the Tennessee defense.
Simmons has beaten a pass protector on 18 of his 23 pressures this season. Only four interior defensive linemen have defeated a blocker on a pressure more often.
However, the Colts have a left guard in Quenton Nelson who has once again been one of the NFL's elite at his position in 2022.
Nelson has allowed a pressure on just 3.1 per cent of his pass protection snaps, giving him the sixth-best pressure rate among guards with at least 100 snaps this season.
The Colts will at least need to slow down Simmons for their passing game to prosper as it did against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the heavyweight battle between two former first-round picks in the heart of the trenches could well decide who takes command of the division.
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers
SmartRating: 71
Win Probability: Chiefs 50.7
Key Matchup: Fred Warner vs. Chiefs offense
A Super Bowl rematch between two teams coming off losses was made spicier with the news of San Francisco's blockbuster trade for running back Christian McCaffrey on Thursday.
But McCaffrey is unlikely to have much of an impact if he does play on Sunday given the limited time he has had to absorb the 49er playbook.
More key to the 49ers' hopes of at least partially avenging their Super Bowl collapse is the performance of a player who intercepted Mahomes in that game, Fred Warner.
The 2020 first-team All-Pro is the organisational heartbeat of the 49er defense, the man who plays a pivotal role in ensuring DeMeco Ryans' group is ultra-disciplined and consistently in the right position to make plays.
That discipline fell down in Week 6 defeat to the Atlanta Falcons, in which an extremely banged-up defense struggled to handle the Falcons' array of motions and zone-read runs involving quarterback Marcus Mariota.
San Francisco will get back a host of players from injury this weekend and the defense must do a better job of handling motion against an offense that heavily relies on it and will have to be alert to Mahomes' running threat, which for defenses is a frustrating complement to the wondrous things he can do throwing the ball.
Still, with no Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs' avenues to explosive plays are not as plentiful as they once were, and the 49ers will likely approach Kansas City in a similar way to the Buffalo Bills defense last week, leaning on two-high safety zone coverages in an attempt to force Mahomes to attack underneath.
Warner has allowed receivers to get open in zone coverage on just 10.87 per cent of his zone plays, his zone open rate the best in the NFL among linebackers. With his acumen in that area of the game and the athleticism he possesses to run downfield with Mahomes' primary target Travis Kelce, a bounce-back effort from Warner will be crucial to San Francisco's hopes of overturning odds that are slightly in Kansas City's favour.
Bills, Chargers grab WRs to start NFL Draft Day 2
The run on wide receivers continued during Day 2 of the NFL draft, which began Friday with the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Chargers using picks to fill glaring needs at the position.
Buffalo, which made two trades to move out of Thursday's first round, started the second by selecting Florida State wide receiver Keon Coleman with the 33rd overall pick. The Chargers then moved up three spots to nab Georgia wideout Ladd McConkey at No. 34.
Both teams sustained significant losses at wide receiver this offseason. The Bills traded four-time Pro Bowler Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans earlier this month, while the Chargers moved on from two accomplished veterans in March by trading Keenan Allen to the Chicago Bears and releasing Mike Williams to clear salary cap space.
After the first round saw a record-tying seven wide receivers go off the board, the second saw three taken with the first five picks. After working a trade with the Chargers to move down from pick No. 34, the New England Patriots chose Washington's Ja'Lynn Polk with the 37th overall selection.
On the flip side, this draft didn't have a running back taken until the Carolina Panthers ended the drought by trading up for Jonathan Brooks with the 46th overall pick. The former Texas standout was the lone running back picked in the second round, though the Arizona Cardinals selected Florida State's Trey Benson with the second pick of the third round (No. 66 overall).
Two more running backs did go later in Round 3. Blake Corum, the leading rusher on Michigan's 2023 national champion team, was taken by the Los Angeles Rams at No. 83 overall, while the Green Bay Packers chose USC's MarShawn Lloyd at No. 88.
Another former Michigan player will be playing for his college coach after the Chargers nabbed Junior Colson with the fifth pick of the third round (No. 69). The linebacker reunites with Jim Harbaugh after Los Angeles hired away the former Wolverines' boss in January.
Defensive tackles were also popular on Day 2, as seven went off the board in the second round after the Seattle Seahawks made Texas' Byron Murphy the lone player at the position chosen in the first.
Interior defensive linemen accounted for four of the first seven picks of the second round. The Atlanta Falcons started the run by trading up for Clemson's Ruke Orhorhoro at No. 35, one pick before the Washington Commanders chose Illinois' Jer'Zhawn Newton. The Tennessee Titans and Los Angeles Rams then used back-to-back selections on Texas' T'Vondre Sweat and Florida State's Braden Fiske, respectively, at picks No. 38 and 39.
Fiske's selection was followed by four straight cornerbacks - Iowa's Cooper DeJean (Philadelphia), Alabama's Kool-Aid McKinstry (New Orleans), Georgia's Kamari Lassiter (Houston) and Rutgers' Max Melton (Arizona) - at picks No. 40-43.
Lassiter was this year's first draft choice of the Texans, one of three teams without a first-round selection along with the Bills and Cleveland. The Browns did not have a pick until taking Ohio State defensive tackle Michael Hall Jr. at No. 54.
No quarterbacks were taken in Rounds 2 and 3 after six went in the first 12 picks of the first round.
Patriots select QB Maye with third overall pick
The New England Patriots hope they now have their franchise quarterback after selecting North Carolina’s Drake Maye with the third overall pick in Thursday's NFL draft.
Maye was the third straight quarterback selected after the Chicago Bears took Caleb Williams at No. 1 and the Washington Commanders chose Jayden Daniels second.
Since Tom Brady departed New England following the 2019 season, the Patriots used Cam Newton as their primary quarterback the following season before drafting Mac Jones 15th overall in 2021.
Jones had a strong rookie season with 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions but tailed off to 24 TDs and 23 picks combined the past two seasons and was traded to Jacksonville in March.
Maye likely won’t be the Patriots’ starting quarterback at the start of the 2024 season after veteran signal caller Jacoby Brissett was signed to a one-year contract in March. Brissett has appeared in 79 NFL games with 48 starts and figures to serve as a mentor to Maye.
There is also the belief that Maye simply won’t be NFL ready in a few months and would be best served to sit a season, like what Patrick Mahomes did for the Chiefs in 2017.
Maye was the ACC Player of the Year in 2022 in his first season as a full-time starter at North Carolina, also being named the conference’s Offensive Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year. He broke Mitchell Trubisky’s school record and set an FBS freshman record with 4,321 passing yards and tied Sam Howell’s mark for passing touchdowns with 38 and threw just seven interceptions. He also displayed his mobility with nearly 700 yards rushing and seven scores.
This past season wasn’t as productive for Maye, who before the season lost offensive coordinator Phil Longo and receivers Josh Downs and Antoine Green to the NFL. Maye was still named to the Second Team All-ACC team as he passed for 3,608 yards with 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 12 games.
Maye has all the physical tools to succeed in the NFL, namely excellent arm talent and good mobility for someone of his size (6-foot-4, 223 pounds). He made a host of impressive touch throws in college and understands where to deliver a ball for a receiver to make a play on it.
There are some issues with Maye’s footwork and his tendency to trust his arm strength almost too much and force some throws. His weaknesses, though, seem like the kind that can be improved upon rather quickly and sitting for a full season - or at least most of one - would help greatly in this area.
Maye has drawn comparisons to Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers.
He isn’t quite the natural athlete that Allen is and probably doesn’t have Hebert’s arm strength, but it’s not far-fetched to think Maye could put up similar numbers to those two at the next level given the right coaching and situation.
Commanders take QB Jayden Daniels second in NFL draft
The Washington Commanders are confident that they have found their franchise quarterback.
With the second overall pick, the Commanders selected LSU’s Jayden Daniels, one of the most electric dual-threat quarterback prospects in recent memory.
The reigning Heisman Trophy winner led LSU to a 10-3 season last year and threw for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns with only four interceptions. He added 1,134 yards on the ground and 10 rushing touchdowns.
On Wednesday, Daniels downplayed reports that he was unhappy with the Commanders conducting a group interview with other top quarterback prospects.
“I'm blessed to go wherever I'm called,” Daniels told reporters. “Whoever calls my phone, whoever gives the card to the commissioner that says my name, I'm blessed to go and they're going to get my all.”
Daniels later clarified that he was “one hundred per cent” heading to Washington.
Despite gaudy production in his senior year, scouts were split on Daniels’ professional prospects, with some wondering if he possesses the pocket passing skills required for the NFL.
At 6-foot-4 and 210 pounds, Daniels is larger than most dual-threat prospects, and his ability to avoid turnovers his senior year was very promising.
But Daniels’ Heisman season is an outlier among his five seasons in college – three at Arizona State and the final two at LSU.
In his first 43 NCAA games, Daniels had a 143.8 passer rating. That number skyrocketed to 208.0 last season.
Due to his extended college career, Daniels will celebrate his 24th birthday during his rookie season in the NFL, making him significantly older than fellow top quarterback prospects Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.
Daniels joins a Commanders squad that went 4-13 last season with Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.
Dan Quinn replaces Ron Rivera as Washington’s head coach, and former Arizona Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury will take over as the Commanders’ offensive coordinator.
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