The San Francisco 49ers' running game hasn't quite performed at the standard they would have hoped so far in 2022, but they made a blockbuster move to address that on Thursday by trading for two-time All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey
San Francisco traded a second, third and fourth-round pick in the 2023 draft as well as a fifth-rounder in 2024 to prise McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers.
At his best, McCaffrey can be one of the most devastating playmakers in the NFL. Back in 2019, he became only the third player after former 49ers great Roger Craig and Marshall Faulk to rack up 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards in the same season.
In the two subsequent seasons, however, McCaffrey played only 10 games because of injury and will carry a cap hit of at least $12million in each of the next three seasons.
While he has played every game so far in 2022, giving up that level of draft capital and committing to pay that contract -- though it could be restructured in the offseason -- for a player with McCaffrey's durability problems represents a significant risk.
The 49ers' average of 4.43 yards per carry is 14th in the NFL, though they rank ninth in Efficiency versus Expected -- which compares the projected yards to the actual yards gained or prevented in specific situations -- on run plays.
San Francisco's run game has not produced at an elite level so far in 2022, but it is among the most efficient in the NFL.
The level of compensation paid to land McCaffrey suggests the 49ers believe he can lift their rushing attack to the very top of the league, but can he do enough to justify the outlay spent on him?
Still a potent running threat
Despite playing behind an offensive line in Carolina that ranks 30th in run block win rate, McCaffrey has, through the first six weeks, produced a compelling argument that he is one of the most dangerous running backs in the NFL.
While his 393 rushing yards are only good enough for 14th in the NFL, his advanced numbers illustrate his value running the ball.
His yards before contact average of 2.29 yards is below the league average of 2.5, with that figure a reflection of the disappointing blocking of the offensive line in Carolina.
However, McCaffrey did an impressive job of overcoming the Panthers' futility in the trenches, putting up 2.44 yards after contact per attempt, above the average of 2.05.
Additionally, he is also averaging 3.36 yards per carry on runs where there is a disruption by a defender, again above the league-wide mark of 3.05 and just below that of Saquon Barkley (3.37), who is second in the NFL in rushing yards with 616.
Though the Niners, who possess a young interior offensive line, are just 16th in run block win rate, that still represents a marked improvement on Carolina's performance in that area, indicating McCaffrey will benefit from blocking that will enable him to rack up more yardage in the backfield, rather than having to limit the negative impact of defenders taking advantage of blown blocks to break into the backfield.
Yet his rushing production is just part of the appeal with McCaffrey, with the potential added dimension offered by his significant receiving upside surely a huge factor in the 49ers' decision to part with such a substantial package of draft picks.
The receiving gold standard
Despite battling injuries for each of the past two seasons, McCaffrey still has an extremely strong claim for being considered the premier receiving running back in the NFL.
Since 2017, when he was drafted eighth overall by the Panthers, only the New Orleans Saints' Alvin Kamara (3,454) has racked up more receiving yards among running backs than McCaffrey (3,292).
However, Kamara has played 78 games to McCaffrey's 64 in that time and the per game numbers skew heavily in the latter's favour. McCaffrey has averaged 51.4 receiving yards per game across his career, the most among running backs since 2017, compared to 44.3 for Kamara in second. No running back has more receptions for first downs than McCaffrey (174) in that span while only Austin Ekeler (26) and Kamara (20) have more receptions for touchdowns than his 18.
This season, though the Panthers targeted him 43 times in the passing game -- only Ekeler (48) has more among backs -- McCaffrey's production through the air has not been efficient.
He has produced a burn, which is when a receiver wins his matchup on a defender on a play where he is targeted, on 17 of his 43 targets. His burn rate of 39.6 per cent is below the league average at his position of 47.6, and he has delivered a big play on 11 per cent of targets (the average this season for backs is 12.7).
Yet his final weeks in Carolina were ones with a team clearly ill-equipped to maximise his talents.
San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan should have no such problems, with McCaffrey likely to benefit from his new play-caller's ingenuity and from playing alongside another of the league's most versatile offensive weapons.
Doubling up on wide backs
McCaffrey may be the NFL's best pass-catching running back, and he is joining the league's top ball-carrying wide receiver, Deebo Samuel, on the San Francisco offense.
Last season, Samuel set the NFL record for rushing touchdowns by a wide receiver in a single season, eight of his 14 touchdowns coming on the ground.
When lined up as a running back for a downhill carry in 2021, Samuel averaged 6.58 yards per rush. He recorded 4.11 yards before contact per attempt, 2.67 yards after contact and averaged 4.77 yards per attempt on carries where there was a run disruption by a defender, his remarkable proficiency in the self-termed 'wide back' role fuelling San Francisco's surge to the NFC Championship Game.
This season, Samuel has 19 carries from the running back spot and is averaging 6.53 yards per rush and 4.61 yards after contact per attempt.
Wolves v Arsenal: ‘What we still have to play for is beautiful’ – Arteta
Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta set out to remind his team that they still have something “beautiful” to play for despite their Champions League exit.
The Gunners slipped out of UEFA’s flagship club competition in midweek when they went down 1-0 to Bayern Munich, losing 3-2 on aggregate.
That defeat followed on from a 2-0 loss to Aston Villa last Sunday – a reverse that significantly dented Arsenal’s title hopes, with the Gunners now two points behind Manchester City who, after this weekend, will have a game in hand.
Arsenal face Wolves on Saturday and, with City in FA Cup action, a win would see them move back to the top of the table, at least temporarily, so Arteta offered a reminder that all is not lost.
“I can guarantee you we are fully focused on Wolves and everybody's lifted,” he said following the loss in Munich.
“What we still have to play is beautiful and I said before, it's time to be next to our players and in this moment, not when you win 10 in a row and a draw, that's easy to prize our players and to be behind them and to say really nice things. The moment is now to be next to them.”
On Friday, in his pre-match press conference, Arteta added: “As an experience, [the Champions League was] the best one.
“I am now fully focused on the times ahead of us. We are now behind Manchester City and will give it a good go. The context is clear. If we win we are top of the league.”
Wolves sit 11th, though they could do with snapping a four-game winless streak in order to get their European hopes back on track.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Wolves – Matheus Cunha
Cunha has been involved in nine goals in his last nine Premier League games, scoring six and assisting three. His 11 goals overall this season is the fourth most by a Wolves player in a single Premier League campaign after Raul Jimenez (17 in 2019-20, 13 in 2018-19) and Steven Fletcher (12 in 2011-12).
Arsenal – Bukayo Saka
Saka has been involved in eight goals in his last seven Premier League away games, scoring seven and assisting one. His 13 away goal involvements overall this term (eight goals, five assists) is the most by an Arsenal player in a single Premier League campaign since Alexis Sanchez’s 20 in 2016-17.
MATCH PREDICTION: ARSENAL WIN
Arsenal lost a Premier League game for the first time in 2024 against Villa last time out. Since the start of last season, only twice have the Gunners suffered consecutive league defeats, doing so in May 2023 (v Brighton and Nottingham Forest) and December this season (v West Ham and Fulham).
Wolves are winless in their last four Premier League games (D2 L2), though they have won their last two at Molineux against sides starting the day in the top two of the table, beating Man City 2-1 in September and Spurs by the same score in November.
Arsenal have scored in their last 32 meetings with Wolves in all competitions.
Wolves have now lost each of their last five against the Gunners, failing to score in both home defeats in that run.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Wolves – 21.5%
Arsenal – 51.2%
Draw – 27.3%
Fulham v Liverpool: Klopp unconcerned by Salah's scoring form
Jurgen Klopp is not overly worried by Mohamed Salah’s slight dip in form, as the Liverpool manager turned full focus to the Reds’ Premier League title challenge.
A bad week for Liverpool was capped off on Thursday when, despite a 1-0 win over Atalanta, they slumped out of the Europa League 3-1 on aggregate following a heavy defeat at Anfield in the first leg.
That loss on April 11 came three days before a 1-0 home reverse to Crystal Palace, which saw Liverpool’s league title hopes take a dent – they are now two points behind Manchester City with six games remaining.
What has not helped their course is that talisman Salah – who netted an early penalty against Atalanta but squandered a big chance later in the match – has scored just three times in the league since returning from a hamstring injury he sustained while playing for Egypt at the Africa Cup of Nations in January.
Klopp, though, is confident Salah will soon be back at his best.
“I am not particularly concerned,” he said ahead of facing Fulham.
“That’s what strikers do, that’s what happens to strikers, that’s how it is. We have to go through this, he has to go through that. He is one of the most experienced players we have in the squad.
“We will go through that but that’s pretty much all. It’s not that Mo didn’t miss chances before in his life, that’s a part of the game. I am not particularly concerned.”
Reflecting on the task at hand now for his side, Klopp added: “Disappointed that we did not go through [in Europe] but not frustrated or angry.
“Now we can focus on the league and that’s what we will do. We have a few days to recover, we will do that, and then will travel the day after tomorrow to London and will play Fulham, which will be tricky but we will give our absolute all.
“That’s our competition now. I saw a good reaction from my side, we had not a great week last week obviously. This, if we want, was the start for the rest of the season with a good result and a good performance and that’s how we see it.”
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Fulham – Andreas Pereira
Pereira has been involved in four goals in his last four Premier League appearances (two goals, two assists), with his brace against West Ham more than he had netted in his previous 34 games combined (one).
Indeed, Pereira has more goal involvements than any other Fulham player since the start of last season (seven goals, 13 assists).
Liverpool – Mohamed Salah
Salah may not be firing on all cylinders from a goalscoring perspective, but he is proving to be Liverpool’s creative hub.
Only Martin Odegaard (68) and Bruno Fernandes (59) have created more chances from open play in the Premier League this season than Salah (58). He has created at least four open-play chances in five different games this season, with Roberto Firmino the last Liverpool player to do so more times in one season (10 in 2016-17).
MATCH PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL WIN
The Reds might have had a bad week, but Opta’s model still fancies their chances of returning to winning ways.
Liverpool have scored in each of their last 19 away Premier League matches, the longest current run of any side. That being said, since losing 3-0 to Brentford in their first home Premier League game this season, Fulham have conceded just 13 goals in their last 15 games at Craven Cottage (0.9 per game). With six clean sheets at home so far, the Cottagers last had more in a Premier League campaign in 2010-11 (nine).
Marco Silva’s team have scored 49 Premier League goals this season, having netted 55 last season. The last time the Cottagers scored 50+ goals in consecutive Premier League seasons was in 2003-04 (52) and 2004-05 (52).
However, Fulham have won just one of their last 11 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D2 L8), winning 1-0 at Anfield in March 2021.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Fulham – 20.85%
Liverpool – 53.1%
Draw – 26.1%
Inter Miami v Nashville SC: Smith not looking forward to Messi reunion
Nashville SC coach Gary Smith is not looking forward to his team facing Lionel Messi for the third time this year, with the Inter Miami star fit and firing ahead of Saturday's MLS clash in Fort Lauderdale.
A hamstring issue caused Messi to spend almost a month on the sidelines before he returned with a goal in Miami's 2-2 draw with the Colorado Rapids earlier this month.
The Argentina great was then on the scoresheet again last weekend, as Miami ended a five-game winless run with an entertaining 3-2 success against Sporting Kansas City.
With Messi also scoring in both legs of a CONCACAF Champions Cup triumph over Nashville in March, Smith is sick of the sight of the eight-time Ballon d'Or winner.
"I'm a little bit disappointed that Lionel Messi has gotten himself back into tip-top sharp form as we come back into town again!" Smith said.
"I think that what we can safely say is when he's in the group, there's a very, very different feel and look and inspiration about that team."
Nashville are winless in three games since beating Charlotte FC 2-1 last month, with Daniel Gazdag's last-gasp strike condemning them to a 2-1 defeat against the Philadelphia Union last time out.
Smith believes his team are at least giving themselves a chance of picking up results, adding: "When we've got our best group on the field — and we need to have our best group on the field — we're very competitive."
Miami's win over Kansas City ensured they will enter the weekend top of the Eastern Conference standings, and boss Gerardo Martino is pleased to see them setting the pace.
"Being first in the standings is comforting, especially with a long week ahead," Martino said. "It was very important for us to get out of that rut of getting ties, losses, and making mistakes."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Inter Miami – Lionel Messi
Messi has been involved in at least one goal in each of his first five league games of the season, the second time he's done so in his career, having achieved the feat in six straight matches with Barcelona to begin 2013-14 in LaLiga.
The Argentine has also managed at least one goal involvement in each of his eight appearances for Miami across all competitions in 2024, including two goals and one assist in two matches against Nashville.
Nashville SC – Jacob Shaffelburg
Shaffelburg has assisted each of Nashville's last two MLS goals, one in each of their last two matches.
Previously, he had only recorded one assist in his first 40 regular-season matches with Nashville. Will his purple patch continue in Florida?
MATCH PREDICTION – INTER MIAMI WIN
Nashville have only managed one win in their last 15 away games against MLS opponents across all competitions (six draws, eight defeats).
That run, which stretches back to June 2023, includes a draw and a loss against Miami, who are also unbeaten in five straight head-to-head meetings between the teams (two wins, three draws).
Last week's 3-2 win over Sporting KC was the 11th time Miami have scored three or more goals in their 22 games with Messi making an appearance, across all competitions. They have only scored three or more goals on 15 occasions in their 134 all-time games without the Argentine. He should be involved on Saturday, and that makes them favourites.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Inter Miami – 36.6%
Nashville SC – 33.8%
Draw – 29.6%
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