For Paris Saint-Germain, every new season brings a "this is it" feeling with regards to their Champions League hopes.
It's been the club's obsession ever since the Qatari state poured in their petrodollars back in 2011, and after a few years of building up a head of steam domestically, European success has been the chief aim.
Each pre-season sees the arrivals of new superstars, most years bring a new coach who has the ownership group's vain ambitions thrust upon their shoulders. The faces change, the goal doesn't – and neither, until now, has the ultimate destination.
Here we are in March 2023 and PSG still haven't won Europe's top prize. They find themselves 1-0 down after the first leg of their Champions League last-16 tie with Bayern Munich, meaning they need to win at the Allianz Arena on Wednesday.
It feels quite early in the season for such a talented group of players to find themselves in a "do or die" position, but that's the harsh reality.
This kind of situation is arguably the whole point of their vast spending, though: having the world-beaters who can almost single-handedly get you out of such a predicament. After all, a 1-0 deficit is hardly insurmountable.
Obviously, Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi will be looked to as the keys to survival and progression. PSG's Qatari overlords might even go as far as saying they were brought to Paris to win the Champions League: that's their job.
Of course, their time together at the club has been blighted by speculation of a fractured relationship, partly due – apparently – to Messi being so close to Neymar, who Mbappe is also said to have become distanced from.
But we're not here to indulge those interested in the kind of juvenile nonsense pedalled by clickbait merchants who're obsessed with the pantomime vilification of anyone/anything.
In fact, there is plenty of evidence that Mbappe and Messi genuinely "get" each other on the pitch. Their 21 goal combinations since the start of last season is nine more than any other pairing across the top five leagues.
PSG's excellent 3-0 win over Marseille in Le Classique at the end of February was a prime example of them clearly having rapport. Both of Mbappe's goals were set up by Messi; Messi's goal was set up by Mbappe.
For the first, Messi spotted the devastating run of Mbappe, who applied a clinical finish. They then switched roles for 2-0, the World Cup winner left with a tap-in from his partner's brilliant low cross.
They finished Marseille off in style. Messi's scooped pass released Mbappe, and he emphatically volleyed home from a tight angle.
Granted, it takes more than one match to show a telepathic on-pitch relationship has formed. But them switching it on as a duo shouldn't be sniffed at, particularly in the Classique.
Some might argue the absence of Neymar helped, and will continue to be a positive for the rest of the season.
Neymar will not play again this term due to an ankle injury, in what has seemingly become par for the course for the Brazilian in Paris. By the end of the 2022-23 campaign, he'll have played just 48 per cent of his possible minutes in Ligue 1 since joining, and the highest proportion of league minutes he'll have racked up in a single season will be 54.4 per cent.
But does it matter?
Some will fairly point out Neymar's 34 goal involvements across all competitions this season is bettered only by Mbappe (37) and Erling Haaland (38), and level with Messi. This is true, but does he really carry the same importance as the other two? And, as a trio, are they really as lethal as you might expect them to be?
Since Messi joined, PSG actually have a better win percentage when one of their star trio isn't starting (69.4 per cent, compared to 64.7 per cent). Admittedly that's not a significant difference, but over the same period their win rate when Neymar isn't in the starting XI is 75.9 per cent and 63 per cent when he is.
By comparison, when one of Mbappe or Messi drop out of the line-up, PSG's win percentage falls from 72.9 to 60.
For all his talents, many don't think Neymar will be missed. Former France international Christophe Dugarry is among them.
"I'm happy for PSG that Neymar is injured. I think this is an incredible opportunity for [Christophe] Galtier. The team is much more balanced with five defenders and Mbappe and Messi up front," Dugarry told RMC Sport.
"I can't watch [Neymar] anymore, I can't stand him anymore. I can't stand his dribbling and that attitude. I don't want to see him on the field anymore, I'm tired."
Proving Neymar's absence makes PSG better is arguably impossible, but Dugarry's comments do strike a chord when he speaks of balance – even Galtier accepts they will be more balanced without the Brazilian.
Galtier does not think it makes them a better team, but that balance is potentially more important at the moment, especially in Europe.
PSG are the only side left in the Champions League who haven't kept a clean sheet in the competition this season, and in all competitions they have only managed two shutouts since the World Cup.
Of course, the situation is slightly more nuanced than being a case of "getting rid of Neymar equals a good defence", but Julian Nagelsmann pinpointed PSG's strength.
"What we need is to prevent them from using their pace," he said. "In Ligue 1, they often defend deep and play on the counter-attack. If you give their attackers too much space and they can unleash their footballing qualities, it's incredibly difficult to defend."
When it comes to pace and speed on the attack, is Neymar really essential for that?
Maybe he was the missing piece all these years. Perhaps, had Neymar not been injured so often in the second half of the season, they'd have won the Champions League by now.
But given how much of the past six years Neymar's missed (52 per cent if you're counting…), it would almost be fitting if PSG went on to win the Champions League without him.
Des Buckingham feels heavy schedule caught up with Oxford
Oxford boss Des Buckingham felt the heavy schedule of three games in six days took its toll on his team as they were held 1-1 by Stevenage at the Kassam Stadium.
It means it is effectively no longer in Oxford’s hands to reach the League One play-offs because Lincoln are three points behind them with a game in hand and a superior goal difference.
Buckingham felt the decision not to award the U’s a penalty when Marcus Browne appeared to have been fouled by keeper Craig MacGillivray in the first half was crucial.
They had to come from behind as Stevenage went in front through a Sam Long own goal in the 32nd minute, Cameron Brannagan replying from the penalty spot on 58 minutes when Carl Piergianni fouled Ruben Rodrigues – though that appeared to have been outside the box.
Buckingham said: “To play three games in six days is a big ask.
“We had 26 shots but couldn’t get that second goal we needed.
“There was a clear penalty not given in the first half, and for us that’s the second game in a row that one hasn’t been given when it should have been. It was a huge moment in the game, and very frustrating.
“The referee told me he couldn’t see it, but the linesman was only 15 yards away and had a clear view.
“I’m delighted with the performance but ultimately we’ve got just the four points from these three home games, now we need to make sure we prepare right and get three in the last one at Exeter.
“When we looked to rearrange the Lincoln game we chose this week because it was a free week, then Sky told us they wanted to bring this Stevenage one forward and show it on the Friday night which meant three games in six days.
“There was nothing we could do about it, but had we known they were going to do that, we would have played the Lincoln game another week.
“It’s going to be a tight finish – I wouldn’t rule out Blackpool either, and they’ve got to play Barnsley.”
Stevenage had lost manager Steve Evans in the week, with Evans heading north to become Rotherham boss.
Caretaker boss Alex Revell said: “Steve always had two clubs very much in his heart – this one and Rotherham. Believe me, making the decision was probably the hardest thing he’s had to do, he said.
“I wanted to take today and make the players ready. I really enjoyed it because they gave everything.
“I’m very proud of what the lads did tonight.
“We had a great day yesterday in terms of training and getting ready and trying to get a few bits into them.
“They came to a really tough place and worked so hard for each other.
“In spells we created some half-chances, probably not enough, but it was about showing our togetherness as a club and our spirit.
“I think we showed why we have caused teams problems this season, especially with our energy and our workrate.
“The first penalty shout against us was a penalty and should have been given so we got away with that.
“But it doesn’t mean that something that started outside the box should be a penalty. Two wrongs don’t make a right.”
Pep Guardiola says Cole Palmer is one of the players of the season
Pep Guardiola admits Chelsea’s former Manchester City starlet Cole Palmer has been one of the players of the season.
The City manager has also revealed the 21-year-old England midfielder had been trying to leave the Etihad Stadium for two years prior to his £42.5million switch to Stamford Bridge last summer.
Palmer, who was considered one of City’s brightest Academy products, has been Chelsea’s most influential performer since he moved south in search of more first-team opportunities.
Palmer has scored 25 goals this season, 11 of which have come in his last six appearances.
He heads into Saturday’s FA Cup semi-final showdown with former club City at Wembley fresh from a four-goal salvo against Everton on Monday.
Guardiola said: “Cole has been the decisive player, maybe of the season, in many aspects.
“He’s an exceptional player. We knew that when he was here.
“We know how he’s proving (himself), but he has had a lot of minutes. I said many times, I didn’t give him the minutes when maybe he deserved it. He wanted the minutes he now has at Chelsea.
“I understand completely. I’m happy for him because he’s a lovely guy, a shy guy. He has an incredible potential, otherwise he would not have been here.
“He’s playing good. He’s an incredible threat. He’s playing fantastically.”
Palmer was a member of the City squad that won the treble last season and he began the current campaign strongly with goals for Guardiola’s side in the Community Shield and European Super Cup.
Yet despite attempts to persuade the Wythenshawe-born player to stay with his hometown club, his mind to move on before the end of the summer transfer window had long been made up.
Guardiola said: “So what can I say? The decision has been made for many reasons. He was asking for two seasons to leave.
“I said, ‘No, stay’. At the end, (he said), ‘No, I want to leave’. What can we do? I said in pre-season, ‘Stay because Riyad (Mahrez) has gone’. He said, ‘No, I want to leave’.
“After two seasons, what can you say? So go there. Playing at that level is exceptional. Everybody knows it.”
City’s hopes of winning a second successive treble were dashed on Wednesday as they suffered an agonising penalty shoot-out defeat to Real Madrid in the Champions League quarter-finals.
Their focus is now on defending the domestic double, a feat no side has previously achieved, but Guardiola prefers not to view the targets in those terms.
Guardiola said: “We were close again (to the treble) but it didn’t happen.
“So my advice about trebles or doubles or these things is, why are we not focused on Chelsea? It’s enough of a target to think about.
“When you have one or two games left to the end of the Premier League and you are already in the FA Cup final, I can answer you perfectly.
“We’ve felt, two times, how strong Chelsea are. They are really, really difficult.
“So, win that game and see what happens the next three, four, five games in the Premier League and after we will see.”
Raith Rovers keep unlikely title bid alive with narrow victory at Inverness
Raith Rovers rode their luck to keep alive their slender cinch Championship title hopes with a smash-and-grab 1-0 win at third-bottom Inverness.
Caley Thistle, looking for a third successive win to further boost their survival push, hit the goal frame four times and saw visiting goalkeeper Kevin Dabrowski produce a host of stunning saves.
But in the end it was Lewis Vaughan’s 49th-minute strike that settled the contest as Raith, who could have seen leaders Dundee United win the league on Saturday if they had lost at Caledonian Stadium, close the gap on the pacesetters to three points.
Duncan Ferguson’s Inverness created several good chances to take the lead in a one-sided first half, with Dabrowski keeping out Cammy Harper’s 25-yard free-kick before Alex Samuel was denied by a goalline block.
The hosts came even closer in the 21st minute when Harper fired against the bar and then saw Dabrowski fling up a leg and somehow manage to block his follow-up.
Rovers had done little to prove they were the team at the top end of the able in the first half but four minutes after the restart they took the lead, top scorer Vaughan getting on the end of a flick-on to coolly guide the ball past Mark Ridgers.
That proved to be the game’s decisive moment as the Raith goal continued to lead a charmed life, Samuel seeing a curling shot come back off the far post and the brilliant Dabrowski turned over a shot from the same player.
Inverness then hit the crossbar twice in quick succession, Danny Devine and James Carragher seeing headers come back off the goal frame, before Dabrowski tipped over a stoppage-time effort as Raith somehow held on for the three points.
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