Bayern look to continue dominance against PSG, Milan push to end English woes – Champions League in Opta numbers

By Sports Desk March 08, 2023

Champions League football returns this week with delicately poised ties in the quest to reach the quarter-finals.

Eyes will firmly be fixed upon Bayern Munich's hosting of Paris Saint-Germain, where the Bundesliga giants hold a narrow 1-0 lead from the first leg in the French capital and are aiming to inflict further continental disappointment upon their visitors.

Meanwhile, Tottenham welcome Milan to north London on the back of a disappointing defeat to Wolves in the Premier League and a surprise exit from the FA Cup at Sheffield United, now needing to come back from a 1-0 first-leg defeat in Italy to retain any hope of avoiding another season without a trophy.

Using Opta data, we've taken a close look at some of the key facts and stats for both fixtures.

Bayern Munich v Paris Saint-Germain

Holding a 1-0 lead from the first leg, Bayern will take confidence in the fact they have been eliminated just twice in the 22 previous occasions where they have won the first leg in a knockout European tie – against Real Madrid in the quarter-finals in 2001-02 and Inter in the round of 16 in 2010-11.

Bayern have won three of their last four home meetings with PSG, though did lose their last such encounter in the 2020-21 quarter-final, with their last three wins against the French side coming by a 1-0 scoreline, Kingsley Coman scoring the winner in two of those.

The hosts will be confident of scoring in Wednesday's clash, with PSG the only side remaining in the Champions League not to have kept a single clean sheet in the competition this season.

PSG's search of a response sees them needing to buck a trend, having progressed just once on the six occasions they have lost the first-leg – against Borussia Dortmund in 2019-20 – and the Ligue 1 side have won just one of their last seven against Bayern, having won four of their first five.

Kylian Mbappe has a strong record at the Allianz Arena, though, scoring three goals in his two previous games there, with no player ever scoring in three consecutive visits to the venue in the competition.

Tottenham v Milan

Tottenham's 1-0 loss at San Siro in the first leg was their first defeat in five meetings against Milan, with their two previous home fixtures against the Italians finishing in a 2-1 victory in April 1972 and a goalless draw in March 2011.

While Spurs have progressed from two of the last three European ties where they trailed from the first leg, they have lost four of their last six home matches in the knockout stages of the Champions League.

Antonio Conte's record of five wins in his last six home matches against Milan is encouraging for the hosts, but Harry Kane will need to return to form after scoring just once in seven European games this season. However, he has scored six goals in his six Champions League appearances at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Milan travel to north London with a woeful record on English soil, only ever winning one of 21 such away games (D7 L13) and losing their last three visits to London by an aggregate scoreline of 9-1.

However, the Serie A side have been eliminated in just three of 21 European Cup/Champions League knockout ties when winning the first leg and are enjoying a three-match winning streak in the competition – their best since a run of five in 2005.

Milan will be confident of scoring the first goal, with Spurs having conceded first in five of seven Champions League matches this term.

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  • Bellingham alone won't win Euros for England - Desailly Bellingham alone won't win Euros for England - Desailly

    England cannot rely on Real Madrid midfielder Jude Bellingham alone to win them the Euro 2024 crown, according to France great Marcel Desailly.

    Bellingham has enjoyed a sensational debut campaign at Madrid that has seen him score 21 goals in all competitions and assist eight more.

    Despite still being aged just 20, the youngster will already have the weight of a nation on his shoulders in the European Championship finals.

    Desailly is a big fan of Bellingham, but he suggests Gareth Southgate may have to consider tweaking formation if England are to succeed.

    "Too much quality can kill the quality," Desailly told Stats Perform. "This is your problem, you see? 

    "All the players have to be able to perform at the same time and help each other. The Dutch have had this kind of problem in the past.

    "The Dutch always have high levels of expertise, but every time it was difficult for them to all unite together at the same time and perform.

    "The talent is there for England, even though Fabio Capello has said their defence is a bit weak, which I agree with.

    "But too much quality kills the quality. Let's see how the coach is able to adjust the side and make certain choices.

    "He may have to remove some of the players into a different tactical system to protect the team for the performances needed."

    Bellingham's latest goal came in added time to earn Real Madrid a 3-2 win over Barcelona in a thrilling Clasico clash last weekend.

    He is already being mentioned as a frontrunner to win this year's Ballon d'Or, which could depend on how England perform in the Euros.

    The ex-Borussia Dortmund ace is also being likened to one of the all-time greats in Zinedine Zidane, but Desailly says there is a long way to go.

    "In the game against Barcelona, he wasn't outstanding yet he was still key for his team," the World Cup 98 and Euro 2000 winner said.

    "Carlo Ancelotti took Vinicius Junior off because he knew what Bellingham could give him in that position. 

    "He also has the legs to defend and score the killer goal, or use his cleverness for the collective of the team.

    "He's a good player. But trying to compare him to Zidane? It is difficult for us to accept he could be at that level.

    "There are differences between them, but the potential of the talents is quite similar."

  • Austin FC v LA Galaxy: 'I'm happy with where we're at' – Vanney Austin FC v LA Galaxy: 'I'm happy with where we're at' – Vanney

    LA Galaxy coach Greg Vanney is satisfied with where his team are at in their development, with the next step for him being better game management.

    The Galaxy beat the San Jose Earthquakes 4-3 last time out, and they are top of the Western Conference with 18 points from nine games.

    Next up is a trip to Austin FC, who have won three of their last four MLS fixtures.

    “We want to build some momentum and keep looking at things we can keep improving,” said Vanney.

    “Austin are a team that are improving, they’ve figured out a few things with their group.

    “All these games on the road are difficult, we’ve got to keep taking steps forward, learning from each of these games, things we can carry on into the next game and be a little better. I’m happy with where we’re at, for sure, and the process continues.”

    The Galaxy raced into a 3-0 lead against the ‘Quakes, though Vanney was disappointed with how his side failed to maintain control.

    He said: “At 3-0 with an opportunity to see it off into half-time, they score a goal that helps them get back into it, so I think game management is an important piece of that.

    “Again, I think inside of that, is choosing our moments when we can really force the opposition to defend in numbers in their half of the field, burn their spirit a bit or really force them to work to get the ball back so they don’t really see a great way back into the game. Sometimes we rush attacks and the game starts to open up – we need to make sure the game stays controlled because we have everything to gain from that scenario.”

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Austin FC – Emiliano Rigoni

    Rigoni scored his first goal of the season last time out, netting in Austin’s 1-0 win over the Houston Dynamo. Fourteen different Austin FC players have been involved in at least one goal this year, tied with Sporting Kansas City for most in MLS in 2024.

    LA Galaxy – Joseph Paintsil

    Paintsil has a goal and an assist in each of the Galaxy’s last two matches. The last player to do so in three straight MLS matches was Zlatan Ibrahimovic, also for the Galaxy, in September 2019.

    MATCH PREDICTION: AUSTIN FC WIN

    The Galaxy have won four of their last five matches, including the last two in a row, following a 4—3 win over San Jose on Sunday. However, they have not won three in a row in all competitions since a four-match run in August-September 2020.

    Austin, on the other hand, have won three of its last four matches, including their last two at home. Austin’s only three-match home winning streak since the start of the 2022 season came in June-July 2023.

    The Galaxy have lost only one of their six matches against Austin FC (W4 D1 L1), but just one of their four wins over the Verde has come in Austin (W1 D1 L1).

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Austin FC – 51.2%

    LA Galaxy – 23.3%

    Draw – 25.5%

  • Courtois set to return from injury after long absence Courtois set to return from injury after long absence

    Real Madrid goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois is set to return for the final stretch of the season after making a full recovery from two knee injuries, Carlo Ancelotti said.

    Madrid boss Ancelotti said he will be cautious with Courtois, who has not played this season after sustaining an ACL tear in August and a torn meniscus in March.

    Stand-in Andriy Lunin will start Friday's LaLiga match at Real Sociedad and Tuesday's Champions League semi-final, first leg at Bayern Munich.

    However, Courtois should be back next week.

    "I have to think carefully about the lineup moving forward. There has been a lot of wear and tear. Courtois is fine, he will be available next week and could play against Cadiz," Ancelotti said in a press conference on Thursday.

    Courtois's injury was expected to be a serious blow for Madrid's hopes this season, but Ukrainian Lunin has been an able stand-in, establishing himself as first choice ahead of former Chelsea keeper Kepa Arrizabalaga in the Belgian's absence.

    Lunin was Madrid's penalty hero as they beat Manchester City to reach the Champions League semi-finals, making two saves in their 4-3 shootout win after an inspired performance as they drew their quarter-final second leg 1-1.

    The 31-year-old Courtois, however, is widely considered to be one of the best goalkeepers in the world and is likely to regain his starting spot with a LaLiga-Champions League double up for grabs.

    He was named Player-of-the-Match in the 2022 Champions League final after producing a memorable performance, making nine saves to deny Liverpool as Madrid clinched a record-extending 14th European title with a 1-0 win in Paris.

    Madrid are brimming with confidence following their 3-2 comeback win over bitter rivals Barcelona on Sunday.

    The LaLiga leaders' pursuit of a record-extending 36th Spanish title gathered momentum as they moved 11 points clear of second-placed Barca with six games left.

    Jude Bellingham and Rodrygo are doubts for Friday's game due to illness and Ferland Mendy is still recovering from a leg injury, but Ancelotti said his side will go all-out as they look to edge closer to the league title.

    "With all the enthusiasm in the world, the objective is very clear, there are seven points left for us to win the league. We have to get them as soon as possible," Ancelotti said.

    "Until the mathematics don't guarantee us the title, we have to fight. The momentum is very good, it's important that we continue to compete and get the most out of it. Win as much as possible. Winning is the best thing to keep momentum going, that's why we have to win tomorrow."

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