Paris Saint-Germain recovered from their blip against Monaco to ease to a 3-0 win at Toulouse.

The Ligue 1 champions were held to a 1-1 draw at the Parc des Princes on Sunday, but another surprise result was never on the cards in the south of France.

PSG dominated an open contest and would have won by a greater margin if not for a superb performance from Toulouse goalkeper Maxime Dupe.

But goals from Neymar, Kylian Mbappe and Juan Bernat made if four wins from five for PSG, who have Marseille and Lens for company on 13 points at the top of the table.

A frantic opening to the match saw both goalkeepers consistently forced into action. Thijs Dallinga twice drew a save from Gianluigi Donnarumma while Dupe did well to deny Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe. 

Messi then fired wide from a Nuno Mendes pullback before seeing another low effort turned behind by the impressive Dupe, who produced more fine reflexes to keep out Mbappe's deft near-post volley.

However, Dupe could do nothing to prevent Neymar rolling into the bottom-right corner after Marco Verratti and Messi linked up neatly, the goal initially disallowed for offside before VAR intervened and corrected the assistant referee.

PSG would have doubled their lead before half-time when Messi fashioned another opportunity, only for Dupe to prove equal to the close-range effort.

Dupe performed further heroics to claw out a vintage Messi free-kick but was eventually beaten again when Messi surged down the left, dropped his shoulder to send Mikkel Desler to the turf and teed up Mbappe for a simple finish.

Vitinha saw a curling effort kept out by the diving Dupe as his goal came under incessant pressure, with Mbappe frustrated again as his vicious effort clipped the crossbar before the Toulouse shot-stopper thwarted him once more at the end of quick break.

Mbappe did play a big role as PSG finally found a third, his long-range drive clattering the left-hand post and rebounding into the path of Bernat to rattle home.

Another Ligue 1 campaign begins on Friday after a big window for French football, the highlight of which was Paris Saint-Germain retaining Kylian Mbappe.

New arrivals in the league include returns for Lyon duo Alexandre Lacazette and Corentin Tolisso, while high-profile departures have seen Aurelien Tchouameni, Sven Botman and Nayef Aguerd depart.

With PSG once again investing heavily in their squad, adding the likes of Vitinha, Hugo Ekitike and Nordi Mukiele, the capital club are widely expected to storm to another title – but can there be an upset?

The verdict, unsurprisingly, is probably not – as Stats Perform AI predicted the outcome of the coming campaign, estimating the likelihood of teams finishing in each position informed by their expected results in each match.

These are calculated using betting odds and Stats Perform's team rankings – based on historical and recent team performances – and, while the title race is not likely to get going, there are some big battles elsewhere in the division.

PSG PARTY ONCE AGAIN

With one of the most expensive squads ever assembled, including the devastating attack of Lionel Messi, Neymar and Kylian Mbappe, PSG are unsurprisingly expected to romp to another Ligue 1 success.

Having won eight of the last nine titles, Stats Perform AI has given PSG a 76.01 per cent chance of retaining their crown.

Marseille, runners-up last season, are seen as the side most capable of mounting a challenge, though their 7.29 per cent chance is slim. Monaco, title winners in 2016-17, are given a 6.55 per cent chance.

Lyon, once the dominant force in French football, have just a 4.29 per cent chance, while Rennes clock in at 3.44 per cent and Lille, the last side to prevent PSG from winning the title having lifted the trophy in 2020-21, have only a 0.71 per cent chance.

The gulf in class within French football is highlighted by the fact that nine teams, almost half of the division, are seen as having no hope in mounting a title challenge.

SCRAMBLE FOR EUROPEAN FOOTBALL

Unlike the other top leagues in European football, France has a limited number of places for qualification for UEFA competitions with just two guaranteed Champions League spots, one qualifying spot, one spot in the Europa League group stage and one in the Europa Conference League play-offs.

With PSG expected to surge to the title and take the first of the two group stage spots in the Champions League, with a 90.93 per cent likelihood, the scrap for the other automatic qualification spot could be fierce.

Marseille are seen as the favourites in that battle with a 29.97 per cent chance, with Monaco following suit with a 29.97 per cent chance.

Elsewhere, Lyon have an 18.7 per cent chance, with Rennes at 15.53 per cent, though they may have to settle for a third-place finish or a spot in the Europa League.

In the battle for fifth, and a play-off spot in the Conference League, it's also expected to be tight – with five clubs, as well as those already mentioned above, given at least a five per cent chance of reaching that spot.

Nice, Lens, Lille, Nantes and Strasbourg are all in with an outside shot of gunning for a spot in European competition, which could set up a thrilling battle.

REGULATION CHANGES INCREASE RELEGATION FIGHT

With Ligue 1 reducing to 18 teams from the 2023-24 season, the fight to avoid the drop to the second-tier will be fiercer than ever with the bottom four all being relegated – and there will be no play-offs either.

The situation looks bleak for Ajaccio (57.64 per cent chance of relegation), Clermont (57.57), Troyes (56.72) and Lorient (53.92), all of which are seen as more likely to suffer relegation than they are to avoid the drop.

Auxerre (46.58) and Toulouse (34.02) could also find themselves looking over their shoulders during the course of the season, while PSG, Marseille and Monaco are the three sides given no chance leaving the league through the bottom.

Of the promoted trio, it is Toulouse who are given the best chance of maintaining their top-flight status for another season – with their most likely position being 15th, with a 10.59 per cent chance of securing that spot.

Nantes survived a tense relegation play-off on Sunday to edge out Toulouse on away goals and secure Ligue 1 football for a ninth consecutive season.

Leading 2-1 from the first leg after a successful trip to the south of France on Thursday, Nantes were beaten 1-0 at their Stade de la Beaujoire home by the side that finished third in Ligue 2.

Vakoun Bayo headed in a cross from Amine Adli to give Toulouse a 62nd-minute lead, but Nantes resisted further pressure from their visitors.

Toulouse were reduced to 10 players in the 87th minute when Nathan N'Goumou was sent off for a foul on Jean-Charles Castelletto, hitting their hopes of a late second goal.

Nantes won four consecutive games before losing to Montpellier on the final day of the regular season, jumping above Nimes in the top-flight table in the process to finish in 18th place.

Having at one stage looked destined for automatic relegation to the second tier, they have survived under the stewardship of Antoine Kombouare, the experienced head coach who was appointed in February as successor to Raymond Domenech and charged with leading the rescue mission.