Another Ligue 1 campaign begins on Friday after a big window for French football, the highlight of which was Paris Saint-Germain retaining Kylian Mbappe.
New arrivals in the league include returns for Lyon duo Alexandre Lacazette and Corentin Tolisso, while high-profile departures have seen Aurelien Tchouameni, Sven Botman and Nayef Aguerd depart.
With PSG once again investing heavily in their squad, adding the likes of Vitinha, Hugo Ekitike and Nordi Mukiele, the capital club are widely expected to storm to another title – but can there be an upset?
The verdict, unsurprisingly, is probably not – as Stats Perform AI predicted the outcome of the coming campaign, estimating the likelihood of teams finishing in each position informed by their expected results in each match.
These are calculated using betting odds and Stats Perform's team rankings – based on historical and recent team performances – and, while the title race is not likely to get going, there are some big battles elsewhere in the division.
PSG PARTY ONCE AGAIN
With one of the most expensive squads ever assembled, including the devastating attack of Lionel Messi, Neymar and Kylian Mbappe, PSG are unsurprisingly expected to romp to another Ligue 1 success.
Having won eight of the last nine titles, Stats Perform AI has given PSG a 76.01 per cent chance of retaining their crown.
Marseille, runners-up last season, are seen as the side most capable of mounting a challenge, though their 7.29 per cent chance is slim. Monaco, title winners in 2016-17, are given a 6.55 per cent chance.
Lyon, once the dominant force in French football, have just a 4.29 per cent chance, while Rennes clock in at 3.44 per cent and Lille, the last side to prevent PSG from winning the title having lifted the trophy in 2020-21, have only a 0.71 per cent chance.
The gulf in class within French football is highlighted by the fact that nine teams, almost half of the division, are seen as having no hope in mounting a title challenge.
SCRAMBLE FOR EUROPEAN FOOTBALL
Unlike the other top leagues in European football, France has a limited number of places for qualification for UEFA competitions with just two guaranteed Champions League spots, one qualifying spot, one spot in the Europa League group stage and one in the Europa Conference League play-offs.
With PSG expected to surge to the title and take the first of the two group stage spots in the Champions League, with a 90.93 per cent likelihood, the scrap for the other automatic qualification spot could be fierce.
Marseille are seen as the favourites in that battle with a 29.97 per cent chance, with Monaco following suit with a 29.97 per cent chance.
Elsewhere, Lyon have an 18.7 per cent chance, with Rennes at 15.53 per cent, though they may have to settle for a third-place finish or a spot in the Europa League.
In the battle for fifth, and a play-off spot in the Conference League, it's also expected to be tight – with five clubs, as well as those already mentioned above, given at least a five per cent chance of reaching that spot.
Nice, Lens, Lille, Nantes and Strasbourg are all in with an outside shot of gunning for a spot in European competition, which could set up a thrilling battle.
REGULATION CHANGES INCREASE RELEGATION FIGHT
With Ligue 1 reducing to 18 teams from the 2023-24 season, the fight to avoid the drop to the second-tier will be fiercer than ever with the bottom four all being relegated – and there will be no play-offs either.
The situation looks bleak for Ajaccio (57.64 per cent chance of relegation), Clermont (57.57), Troyes (56.72) and Lorient (53.92), all of which are seen as more likely to suffer relegation than they are to avoid the drop.
Auxerre (46.58) and Toulouse (34.02) could also find themselves looking over their shoulders during the course of the season, while PSG, Marseille and Monaco are the three sides given no chance leaving the league through the bottom.
Of the promoted trio, it is Toulouse who are given the best chance of maintaining their top-flight status for another season – with their most likely position being 15th, with a 10.59 per cent chance of securing that spot.
Luis Enrique relaxed about Paris St Germain’s form in front of goal
Luis Enrique laughed off suggestions Paris St Germain lack a cutting edge ahead of a tricky Ligue 1 trip to stingy Le Havre.
PSG registered 31 shots during their midweek Champions League clash with Newcastle but required a controversial late penalty from Kylian Mbappe to salvage a 1-1 draw.
The reigning champions are the highest scorers in France’s top-flight, having recorded an impressive 34 goals in just 13 games.
Head coach Enrique called for perspective in the wake of a frustrating midweek meeting with the Magpies and insisted he would be more concerned if his team were not creating chances.
“This is very funny,” the Spaniard replied with a bemused expression when asked about a potential finishing problem among his squad at his pre-match press conference.
“A team that scores three goals per game (on average) and generates 10 clear chances in the Champions League against a team like Newcastle?
“If we have a finishing problem, what does that mean for everyone else?
“Football is a game of mistakes. I would be worried if we weren’t making goal-scoring chances.
“Sometimes we will score more than others, that is life. We can’t all be inspired every time. I’m not worried about that.
“Sometimes we missed good chances, that is how it is. But we need to be sensible here.”
PSG are on a run of six successive league wins following last Friday’s thumping 5-2 success over Monaco.
Meanwhile, Le Havre have registered four goalless draws in their last five outings but sit in the top half of the table following promotion last term.
Enrique believes the Newcastle game will serve as good preparation for breaking down stubborn opposition on Sunday afternoon in Normandy.
“Le Havre are a team that don’t concede many goals and don’t score many either,” he said.
“I think they’ll defend with a low block, so good movement will be necessary.
“We’ve seen, especially against Newcastle, that even when the opponent defends deep, we can still manage to create a lot of chances.
“Therefore, it will be important to be well-positioned, to move the ball well, and to get our shots on target. It’s going to be a difficult match.”
PSG remain without defender Marquinhos due to a torn hamstring.
Warren Zaire-Emery, Nuno Mendes and Presnel Kimpembe are also still sidelined, while goalkeeper Alexandre Letellier (groin) faces a fitness test.
Magic savour 'special' Washington triumph after record-equalling ninth straight win
Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero and coach Jamahl Mosley both lauded a "special" night for the team as they equalled the franchise's record winning run by overcoming the Washington Wizards.
Banchero finished with 28 points, 13 rebounds and seven assists, while Franz Wagner had a game-high 31 points as Orlando beat Washington for the second time in two days on Friday, clinching a 130-125 success at Amway Center.
The victory was Orlando's ninth in a row, taking them to 14-5 for the season and matching their longest ever streak, with the team having previously won nine straight in 1994, 2001 and 2010-11.
Orlando are one of just two NBA franchises – along with the Indiana Pacers – to never enjoy a double-digit winning run, but they have the chance to do so for the first time when they visit the Brooklyn Nets on Saturday.
"It's pretty special," Banchero said of the team's run, which began with the first of back-to-back road wins over the Chicago Bulls on November 15.
"Eventually I think a loss is going to come, but we just want to keep it rolling for as long as we can.
"But you're not surprised when you do something like this because we've got great chemistry and we play really well together."
Orlando are up to second in the Eastern Conference, with only the 15-4 Boston Celtics and the 14-4 Minnesota Timberwolves boasting better records across the entire league.
Head coach Mosley said: "It's a big time for this group, but more importantly, I think it's a big time for the fans and the organisation.
"There's an energy, there's a vibe, a buzz about this group, and our guys are doing a good job of embracing it, not getting too high or too low but being able to register that this is something special."
Newcastle boss Eddie Howe believes more VAR ‘would ruin the game’
Newcastle boss Eddie Howe has warned more VAR would “ruin” football after finding himself on the wrong end of a controversial decision.
Football’s lawmakers are considering options to extend the system’s use at the same time as a debate over its effectiveness in its current form rages on.
The Magpies were denied a Champions League victory at Paris St Germain on Tuesday after Polish referee Szymon Marciniak was asked to review a decision not to award a penalty for handball against Tino Livramento by VAR official Thomas Kwiatkowski and changed his mind to allow Kylian Mbappe to level in stoppage time.
Asked if he would like to see more or less VAR, head coach Howe said: “I’d like to see less VAR.
“I don’t have an issue with offsides because that is as close as it can be to being right, whether you agree with the decision, the lines give you a black and white yes or no. The rest, I’m not in favour.
“I still think it’s just another person’s opinion against another person’s opinion. It’s very subjective. I’d like to see less. I definitely wouldn’t want to see more because I think it would ruin the game.”
Kwiatkowski had been due to oversee Wednesday night’s Real Sociedad versus Red Bull Salzburg game in the same competition, but was stood down, a decision which brought Howe, who revealed the club have contacted UEFA to seek clarity over the penalty award, little comfort.
He said: “That for me, with VAR is an issue – not enough power is given to the on-field decision, which in this case was correct.
“I still believe – I’m old-fashioned in this – that the on-field decision should be given a little bit more strength because the referee is there, he’s feeling the game, he’s managing the game in the middle and I think that is worth something.”
Howe’s comments came as he prepared his players for Saturday evening’s Premier League clash with Manchester United at St James’ Park still contemplating a lengthy injury list, but with no new additions after an attritional night at the Parc des Princes and with hopes high that midfielders Joe Willock and Sean Longstaff will be sidelined for weeks rather than months.
Newcastle have lost just one of their last five encounters in all competitions with the Red Devils, who also suffered Champions League disappointment 24 hours later when they squandered a 3-1 lead at Galatasaray to draw 3-3, although Erik ten Hag’s side have won five of their last six league games.
Asked if he and his players could use their burning sense of injustice from Paris as added motivation, Howe said: “I always want that sense that we are against everybody outside of Newcastle when we play. I think that helps us.
“That is a good mentality to have, that we are competing against everybody else. It’s certainly served us well to this point and if it helps any individual players, then great.”
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