Manchester City remain the likely Premier League champions and are on course to pip weekend opponents Liverpool to the title as the race reaches its home straight.

The top two each have eight games remaining and the first comes on Sunday when they go head-to-head at the Etihad Stadium in what many are billing a title decider.

That is hyperbole of course, but for City it is the last time they will face a team currently in the top five, so by that logical reasoning it is the game where they are most likely to slip up.

Arsenal are the team likeliest to snatch fourth place and a Champions League ticket for next season, while at the foot of the table it is almost too close to call between Everton and Burnley for the third relegation place, with Leeds United now standing just a 12.2 per cent chance of sliding down to the Championship.

Stats Perform AI analysis has given us a strong sense of how the standings might look come the season's final whistle on Sunday, May 22, but the figures also show us there remains plenty to play for.

PEP TO WIN THE TITLE BATTLE AGAIN?

Pep Guardiola's City head into the crucial contest with a one-point advantage over a Liverpool side who have been closing the gap since trailing by 14 points on January 15, albeit with Jurgen Klopp's Reds having played two fewer games at that time.

It is clear this remains a title race that could yet go either way, but City stand a 65.6 per cent chance of carrying off the trophy for a second season in a row, with Liverpool, their lone rivals for silverware, having a 34.4 per cent opportunity.

Diego Simeone described City as "an extraordinary rival" after Atletico Madrid's 1-0 defeat at the Etihad Stadium on Tuesday, and the second leg of that Champions League tie follows three days after the Liverpool game.

City's Premier League opponents for the remainder of the campaign will then be, in order: Brighton (home), Watford (home), Leeds United (away), Newcastle United (home), West Ham (away) and Aston Villa (home), with a trip to Wolves also to be arranged for a date to be confirmed.

Liverpool, also with Champions League commitments and an FA Cup semi-final against City to come, have what looks a more daunting Premier League run-in after this weekend, beginning with two huge Anfield games: Manchester United (home), Everton (home), Newcastle (away), Tottenham (home), Aston Villa (away), Southampton (away), Wolves (home).

They are 64.7 per cent likely to finish as runners-up, the Stats Perform prediction shows, and 0.9 per cent likely to be caught by Chelsea for second place. City are 0.3 per cent likely to throw it away and finish third. Now that would be some story.

Of all teams in the top flight, third-placed Chelsea are the most likely to finish in their current position. That is calculated as a 94.5 per cent probability.

GO FOURTH AND PROSPER?

The last Champions League qualifying berth is the prize that looks to be a slug-off between north London rivals Tottenham and Arsenal, who will meet in a May 12 derby.

Both sit on 54 points heading into this weekend, with Tottenham fourth for now but Arsenal having played one fewer game.

Momentum could change considerably, but for now Arsenal are predicted to have a 59.1 per cent chance of taking fourth spot, with Tottenham given a 31.9 per cent shot (50.8 per cent to be fifth).

Who else might take fourth and secure the riches that come with Champions League involvement? Well, Chelsea are reckoned to have a 4.0 per cent prospect of slipping there (and a 0.3 per cent chance of nose-diving to fifth), while Manchester United are three points adrift of Spurs and the Gunners, sitting in seventh ahead of a weekend trip to struggling Everton, and are given a 4.2 per cent hope of finishing so high.

That would be a massive boost to United's next boss, but it remains a slim hope. In fact, United's most likely finishing position, according to the predictor, is sixth place (46.1 per cent).

Former Red Devils boss David Moyes has probably seen his West Ham side's hopes of a top-four finish slip away. The Hammers are also just three points behind Tottenham and Arsenal but have played more games than both and are given a trifling 0.7 per cent chance of coming home fourth.

GOING DOWN WITH THE NORWICH?

The Canaries of Norwich are so far down the relegation pit of despair they can surely smell Championship gas. They stand a 1.3 per chance of survival, and are 81.3 per cent likely to finish rock bottom.

Second-bottom Watford are given an 18 per cent chance of staying up by the predictor, and home games against Leeds, Brentford, Burnley, Everton and Leicester City mean that door to survival should be considered just slightly ajar.

Leeds could yet plummet, but if Norwich and Watford are the likeliest two sides to exit the Premier League, then Burnley and Everton are the two most obviously jostling to avoid joining them.

For now, after a bruising 3-2 defeat at Burnley on Wednesday, Everton are rated 49.4 per cent shots to finish inside the bottom three, compared to 53.2 per cent for Sean Dyche's Clarets.

It is knife-edge stuff, hardly the end of the table where Frank Lampard is at his most comfortable.

Come the final day, Lampard's Everton might need something from a trip to Arsenal, who in turn might need points in that fourth-place battle.

HOW THE NUMBERS ARE WORKED OUT

Stats Perform's League Prediction model simulates the outcomes of the remaining matches to estimate the likelihood of teams finishing in each position.

The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) from the latest available betting market odds data or, when not available, by using an internal win probability model that is powered by historical team strengths.

Based on these probabilities, the results of the remaining matches can be simulated. The outcome of the season is simulated 10,000 separate times in order to estimate the likelihood of each team finishing in each league position.

Manchester City and Liverpool goalkeepers Ederson and Alisson are two of the best shot-stoppers in world football, and David James concedes it is a struggle to pick an outright favourite.

Brazil duo Ederson and Alisson will meet on Sunday as Manchester City host Liverpool in a crucial game in the Premier League title race.

The goalkeepers have been the standout shot-stoppers in the Premier League in recent seasons. While Ederson has three league titles to his name, Alisson has helped Liverpool to a top-flight triumph and Champions League success.

This season, both goalkeepers have performed to similarly high levels. Alisson has made 60 saves in the league from 78 shots on target faced, leaving him with a save percentage of 76.9, while Ederson has made 50 stops, registering a save percentage of 72.3.

Based on Opta's expected goals on target conceded (xGOT) model, Alisson has performed slightly better when it comes to the number of goals he has prevented with the quality of his shot-stopping.

Alisson has prevented 2.9 goals in the top-flight, while Ederson has prevented 1.7.

With the margins between the pair so tight, former England number one James says it is difficult to pick which goalie he prefers.

"My favourite two goalkeepers in the Premier League, absolutely," the former City and Liverpool goalkeeper told Stats Perform.

"Even off the field, these two guys are fantastic people. I can admire them from the goalkeeping art, but when you've got wonderful people doing it, then it just adds another layer to it.

"They're very good friends as well, which makes it even more interesting, team-mates on the international scene, your mates off the field, and then you're competing in pretty much every tournament."

However, James does believe that Alisson, due to Liverpool's more open style of play, is tested more regularly.

"If I had a favourite, it's very difficult because their attributes are different," he continued.

"When you look at Ederson, the guy who can kick the ball 90 metres, hardly ever kicks the ball 40 metres, and everything is pretty much played in his own half now.

"It's more a demonstration of the dominance of City and because of that dominance he's not actually being called upon so much.

"Whereas if you look at Allison, who's got the freedom to get an assist if he wants, but has been called upon time and again, this even going into the game on the weekend, you're looking at it and thinking well 'case history would argue that Allison has made more saves in the last two months, possibly in one game than Ederson has had to do'.

"So Allison's kind of winning at the moment because he's doing more but I wouldn't want to pick one as my ultimate favourite."

Arrigo Sacchi labelled Diego Simeone's Atletico Madrid as "boring" and says the Spanish club should have spent money on changing their style of play.

Atleti have become famed for their organised, defensive set-ups in their 11 years under Simeone, and those tactics were again on show in Tuesday's 1-0 loss to Manchester City.

Simeone's team failed to muster a single shot in the Champions League quarter-final first leg, making them the first side to do so in the competition since APOEL against Real Madrid in March 2012.

Indeed, since such data was first recorded from 2003-04, there have been only four instances of a side failing to register at least one shot in a single match.

Simeone's tactics have led to plenty of success over the past decade, however, with Atleti winning eight trophies – including last season's LaLiga – while also reaching the Champions League final twice.

While Sacchi respects what the Argentine has achieved, the coaching legend cannot get on board with Atleti's style of play.

"Simeone has achieved many results in recent years," Sacchi, who coached Atleti for a brief spell in 1998-99, told Gazzetta dello Sport.

"There is no doubt that his experience as a player in Italy has influenced him as a coach.

"First of all, don't concede goals and then let's see what happens, let's rely on the talent of some individuals and hope for the best.

"It's true that Atletico have quality elements, but instead of buying players and spending a lot of money, they should have spent the money on changing their style.

"Let's face it: this way of playing is boring for the audience. The fans ask for beauty, they ask for emotions. What emotion can there be in a long ball?"

Atleti have averaged 50 per cent possession in LaLiga this season, which is outside the top 40 among teams across Europe's top five leagues.

For comparison, Man City lead that metric with 68 per cent of the ball per game on average in the Premier League, followed by Atleti's domestic rivals Barcelona (65 per cent).

Atleti's 11,033 successful passes in the Spanish top flight this season, meanwhile, is only the eighth-most, placing them behind the likes of Real Sociedad (11,204) and Celta Vigo (11,653).

Despite his reservations regarding the way Atleti are coached, Sacchi acknowledged that Simeone's men still have a good chance of overcoming City in next week's return fixture on home soil.

"We must be honest, the tie between the Spaniards and City is still open. Anything could happen in the second leg," he said.

"Atletico didn't have a single shot on goal, that's true, but it's not like City had a lot. Apart from [Kevin] De Bruyne's goal, which was beautiful in its build-up and execution, I don't remember many scoring chances.

"It was a challenge for them so it wasn't fun. Atletico didn't want to play football, but City had a duty to do something more to overcome the wall."

Pep Guardiola dismissed the discussion of Liverpool recovering a 14-point deficit to Manchester City, claiming the January gap "was fake" due to the Reds' games in hand.

There is just a point between leaders City and second-placed Liverpool heading into their encounter on Sunday, which many are billing as a title decider.

But back in mid-January, Liverpool was in third, 14 points behind City – who had a 13-point advantage over Chelsea.

Should Liverpool go on to win the Premier League title, this season would mark the greatest comeback in terms of points, breaking the 1997-98 record held by Arsenal.

The Gunners, in their first Premier League title-winning campaign, were 13 points behind pace-setters Manchester United in sixth in late December. They also had a game in hand.

Although topped by Arsenal, perhaps the most notable collapse in the competition's history saw Newcastle United 12 points clear of United in January of the 1995-96 season. Kevin Keegan's side, who finished second, had played the same number of games as their title rivals.

"I'm going to tell you something: 14 points, it was fake. You were wrong," Guardiola said ahead of the game at the Etihad Stadium. "[Liverpool] had two more games in hand. It's fake."

 The City manager, therefore, refused to criticise his team for allowing that significant gap to be closed.

"I have to analyse the games where we dropped points — Crystal Palace, especially, and Southampton," he said.

"We were brilliant, I would say more than brilliant. We were not effective, we were not clinical, but we were brilliant.

"We won against Southampton in the FA Cup quarter-finals 4-1. It was miles away worse, worse than the game where we drew 1-1 when we could've won 4-1. But it's football, it's unpredictable.

"It was the same with Crystal Palace. Crystal Palace is in the semi-finals of the FA Cup, and we were amazing the way we played. It's football."

And Guardiola is not surprised by Liverpool's recovery, declaring them "one of the best teams in decades".

"When we were 14 points ahead of Liverpool, even myself I could not believe it because I know the incredible opponent we have to face," he added.

"It's Liverpool, one of the best teams in decades in this country, in Europe.

"The reality is one point right now, this is the normal reality. It's an honour to be there, to fight to beat them to win the Premier League."

Xavi's rebuild at Barcelona has had to take place with tighter purse strings than you might usually expect.

The club that reportedly spent a combined €275million on Ousmane Dembele and Philippe Coutinho in the same season are now on the hunt for a new winger, and Raphinha seemingly fits the criteria.

Whether they can convince Leeds to sell for a price that suits all parties will apparently be made clear in the next few weeks.

TOP STORY – BARCA EYE RAPHINHA

Talks have commenced for Raphinha's potential move from Leeds United to Barcelona, per Nicolo Schira.

Raphinha's agent, former Barcelona and Chelsea star Deco, has been in contact with the Catalan giants since early March, but the Brazilian winger's €70m release clause has been a roadblock for the cash-strapped club.

The Blaugrana remain the preferred destination for the 25-year-old, who has tallied nine goals and three assists in 28 appearances for embattled Leeds.

It is reported Barcelona will try to come up with an acceptable package for the Premier League club in the coming weeks.

ROUND-UP

– The Manchester Evening News is reporting Paris Saint-Germain have made an offer to Manchester United's Paul Pogba, as he enters the final months of his contract.

– Tottenham and England striker Harry Kane would consider an offer from Manchester United before weighing up his long-term future, according to The Athletic.

– Manchester City are hopeful of agreeing a new contract with 21-year-old England midfielder Phil Foden, per 90min.

– Despite interest from Liverpool and Manchester United, Ronald Araujo's agent has disclosed to ESPN that a new long-term deal with Barcelona is imminent.

Pep Guardiola spoke of the "massive influence" that Kevin De Bruyne brings to Manchester City after the Belgian's winner on his 50th Champions League appearance for the club.

City snatched a 1-0 lead to take into the second leg of the quarter-final against Atletico Madrid at the Wanda Metropolitano, with De Bruyne rifling in from substitute Phil Foden's pass in the 70th minute.

The 30-year-old playmaker was heavily involved throughout, but it had looked like being a frustrating night for him before he finished off the excellent throughball from Foden.

Moments before the goal arrived, as Guardiola made a triple change that saw Foden, Jack Grealish and Gabriel Jesus enter the action, the manager called De Bruyne over to the touchline.

He passed on a word of wisdom or two, and almost in a flash City hit the front in the tie, finally breaching an Atletico defence that had manfully held out against heavy pressure from the hosts in rainy Manchester.

City had 70.5 per cent of possession and Atletico were credited with no shots at the home side's goal. Still, the tie could yet change in Madrid, and City will be thankful talisman De Bruyne, one yellow card short of suspension, was not booked for hacking down Joao Felix in the first half.

Atletico boss Diego Simeone described City as "possibly the best team in the world", but the respect between the superstar coaches is mutual.

"It was a difficult game against a tough opponent," Guardiola said.

He said City were lacking "the right rhythm" at times in the second half, which spurred him to make the changes.

Guardiola said: "It's a good result fortunately. At the end we had one or two more chances with Kevin to score more goals, but even 1-0 or 2-0 to go to Madrid it is always difficult. But good result, we won the game."

Turning his thoughts to De Bruyne, the midfielder who had to hustle as a false nine for a large chunk of the game, Guardiola said: "I think he's in the best moment of the season right now.

"He's sharp, he's quick, he's positive, his influence on our game is massive. He made an exceptional goal in the combination with Phil."

De Bruyne had a game-high five shots, forcing Jan Oblak into a fine save from one free-kick before the goal arrived.

Foden's vision and slick pass to find De Bruyne's run was admirable, almost lifted from the De Bruyne playbook.

"He has a special quality. His first steps are massive," Guardiola told a news conference. "He had the composure to make an incredible assist to Kevin.

"We knew it in the beginning with Gabriel and him, when our game was a little bit flat they could change it when [Atletico] were a bit more tired. With Jack, we could continue to control the game. We did it and they were brilliant."

Guardiola said City needed a presence in attack, with Atletico defending in two lines of five, effectively giving up the idea of scoring themselves.

They had a couple of breaks towards goal, but Ederson was largely a spectator.

"They defend so well, so compact, and so deep," Guardiola said.

"We need the talent like Phil has shown. We were patient because you have to be against these type of teams. They want to be getting you anxious and nervous. You get disorganised a bit and they punish you up front because they have top, top players. They have incredible quality up front.

"They are so good and if you are not attacking in the right way they punish you."

Looking to the second leg next week, Guardiola added: "We will go there not to defend the result, but to try to win the game.

"We have to control our emotions and do what we have to do. They have faced this kind of knockout stages many times... more than us. It will be a good test for us and our maturity in this game."

Rival boss Simeone said he had planned for City to have Foden on the pitch from the first whistle.

The Atletico head coach, who has led his side to two Champions League final defeats, said: "We expected him to play as a starter because he is a very dynamic player.

"He came on in the second half, and any of the three who came on have different characteristics. In the same way that they talked about being patient at half-time, waiting for their moment, we also waited for it. With different weapons, we were both looking for the same thing."

Simeone will now plot for Atletico's home leg, when they will have to show more attacking verve, which could open gaps for City to exploit. City have a tough Premier League assignment to come first when they face title rivals Liverpool on Sunday, and that may help Atletico.

"You always have to come up with something better," Simeone said. "It's a long match, divided into two parts, here and at home. They don't care, they'll play the same way. They're possibly the best team in the world. But with humility we'll compete."

Kevin De Bruyne believes Manchester City were rewarded for their calmness and patience during the Champions League quarter-final first leg 1-0 victory over Atletico Madrid.

De Bruyne marked his 50th appearance for the Citizens in the competition by striking the only goal at the Etihad Stadium.

The Belgium international latched onto Phil Foden's delicious throughball 20 minutes from time, before neatly slotting past Jan Oblak.

City had endured a frustrating first leg as they struggled to break down their opponents' typically stubborn defence.

But their persistence eventually paid off with Pep Guardiola’s side taking a slender lead to Madrid for the return fixture next week.

"It was a very hard game," De Bruyne told BT Sport. "They play so defensively tight and solid; that's their way of playing. I think we played good under the circumstances. 

"They played almost five at the back and five in midfield, so it's very hard to find the spaces.

"You need to be calm, patient, and try to find the spaces. You're going to lose balls because it's so compact, but we had a couple of chances in the second half and managed to get one.

"I expect similar over there [in the second leg]. If the game is tight, they will have to attack a little more."

Diego Simeone's men arrived in Manchester for the second time in a month - having defeated United at Old Trafford in the previous round - protecting a six-match winning streak, and will fancy their chances of turning things around next Wednesday.

Nevertheless, Guardiola insists that the Premier League leaders do not intend to sit back and rest on their laurels at Wanda Metropolitano.

Asked if he was happy with his side's performance, the head coach told BT Sport: "A lot. 

"We played an incredible top side who are difficult to face, but it is a good result. We had chances to score a second and third.

"It is not easy to face a team with a lot of experience in this tournament. 

"We will go there to score and try and win again."

Great art will typically have its back to the wall, and for an hour on Tuesday it was a great artist who stood with his back to a red wall on a rainy night in Manchester, unhappy with his lot.

A promising exhibition was turning into a soggy mess as Kevin De Bruyne had his visionary brushstrokes stripped of their customary colour, the false nine lacking his usual lustre.

But then the narrative flipped, and a 50th Champions League appearance in City colours for this wonderful Belgian footballer had its masterpiece, a finish any genuine number nine would admire from substitute Phil Foden's delicious pass. One-nil, and that was how it stayed, a fine result from a taxing evening.

City manager Pep Guardiola had joked about the perception that he can "overthink" in big games in the build-up to this tussle, and he fooled those who cooked up the team sheet that reckoned on De Bruyne occupying a wide-right midfield role.

Of course he cropped up there at times, on the left too, and at times in the centre of midfield, but De Bruyne spent just as much time as the further City man forward, chasing lost causes, closing down, doing the donkey work.

This latest landmark appearance for City – coming so soon after his 200th Premier League appearance for the leaders on Saturday – ended in triumph where it could have been frustration, or been worse.

You see, sometimes great artists do silly things, like slicing off an ear or headbutting Marco Materazzi, and when De Bruyne chopped down Joao Felix in the 34th minute to cut short an Atletico counter-attack, it looked like being a costly error.

A yellow card was surely coming, and with De Bruyne already a booking away from suspension, City would have lost him for the second leg of this tie. Referee Istvan Kovacs kept the card in his pocket and an incredulous Diego Simeone, the Atletico head coach, had to be asked to cool it by the man with the whistle. Simeone might be known for his histrionics, but this seemed eminently excusable.

De Bruyne has entered the imperial phase of his City career, with records and landmarks stacking up alongside trophies. But the Champions League is the trophy City and De Bruyne want now, and it is the obdurate brilliance of teams such as Atletico that they must find a way past to reach that goal.

When Guardiola substituted Raheem Sterling, Ilkay Gundogan and Riyad Mahrez in the 68th minute, bringing on Foden, Jack Grealish and Gabriel Jesus, he called De Bruyne over to the touchline too, passing on a word or two of advice. De Bruyne had seen a free-kick well saved by Jan Oblak, but was otherwise being stifled, and when he was not being stifled he was looking thoroughly fed up in the rain.

Barely two minutes after the Pep talk and the goal arrived, local lad Foden with a pass from the gods and the finish doing it justice.

De Bruyne came into this game having made more assists in the Champions League than any other player from an English club since his City debut in the competition in September 2015. To those 17 assists – only Neymar (25), Kylian Mbappe (20) and Angel Di Maria (18) have had more – De Bruyne has now added 11 goals.

Five of his previous 10 had come from outside the box, but this was a striker's goal, running in behind and lashing into the left corner.

A head injury forced De Bruyne to abandon last season's Champions League final, and City will want to be sure he is present and correct should they get through to the showpiece again.

A tricky second leg awaits them next week at the Wanda Metropolitano, then potentially a semi-final. But De Bruyne's strike was as admirable as City's persistence against an Atletico side who repeatedly got every man back inside their final third at the behest of their strutting boss, and it was the sort of result that had the home fans at the Etihad Stadium dreaming once again.

During the international break, De Bruyne and wife Michele took 24 hours away in Paris, and it will be the French capital that stages the Champions League final in May.

City might be there. De Bruyne's time, City's time, might be coming.

Kevin De Bruyne was the hero as Manchester City overcame Atletico Madrid 1-0 in their Champions League quarter-final first leg at the Etihad Stadium.

The Belgium international struck the only goal 20 minutes from time to hand Pep Guardiola's side a narrow advantage heading into the second leg at the Wanda Metropolitano next week.

Atletico had frustrated the Premier League leaders for large periods of the contest on Tuesday with a typically stubborn defensive display.

However, their resistance was finally broken when De Bruyne latched onto Phil Foden's precise throughball, before sliding past Jan Oblak. 

Guardiola had overseen victories in each of City's previous three Champions League matches against Spanish sides.

But despite boasting well over 70 per cent of possession and forcing four corners, the hosts were unable to break down their stubborn opponents before the interval.

City failed to register a single shot on target from six attempts in the first half, with Atletico also making important blocks to deny Joao Cancelo and De Bruyne.

Ilkay Gundogan almost unlocked the Atleti defence, but the skipper was just unable to get Riyad Mahrez's inviting cross under control.

City continued to carry the greater threat after the restart; Oblak getting down well to keep out De Bruyne's free-kick, while Aymeric Laporte headed over from a Mahrez corner.

Guardiola introduced Jack Grealish, Gabriel Jesus and Foden in a bid to find an elusive opening goal.

And the latter made an impact within two minutes of stepping onto the field; producing a perfectly timed pass for De Bruyne, who finished clinically with his right foot from inside the penalty area.

The midfielder then had an effort blocked by former City defender Stefan Savic, but his strike was enough to give City the edge.

It is always fascinating when polar opposites collide. 

In the Premier League, Pep Guardiola's methodical Manchester City are leading the way, up against the juggernaut of Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool.

While Guardiola and Klopp are by no means cut from the same cloth, they do share similarities in their approach; relentless pressing, rapid counter-pressing and machine-like efficiency.

Yet in Diego Simeone, it is difficult to imagine an elite-level coach that contrasts with Guardiola quite so much. On Tuesday, we will see just how the styles match up.

It has been almost six years since a team coached by Guardiola went up against Simeone's Atletico Madrid, when Bayern Munich faced Los Colchoneros in the Champions League semi-finals.

Simeone triumphed on that occasion, albeit on away goals. Atleti went on to lose to city rivals Real Madrid in the final, while Guardiola has only been further in UEFA's competition once since then – last season, when City lost to Chelsea in the final in Porto.

Indeed, only three times in total have Simeone and Guardiola gone up against each other. Pep holds the edge in terms of wins (at least on the night), 2-1, with his Barcelona side seeing off Atleti 2-1 in LaLiga in February 2012, during his final season at Camp Nou.

Another two games will be added to that head-to-head record over the coming weeks in a Champions League quarter-final tie that represents a true clash of styles.

Possession obsession

Guardiola's death by a thousand cuts approach has yielded unprecedented success. City are a joy to watch at their best. Slick, swift, sublime. Everything you would associate with a team at the very top of the game.

As has been the case throughout his managerial career, Guardiola wants to dominate possession, control the opposition by simply not allowing them to have the ball and, if they do have it, then you can bet his team will win it back within seconds, or commit a timely foul (Fernandinho, anyone?).

Just taking this season into account, City average 66.9 per cent possession across all competitions, while they have attempted 30,155 passes, completing 27,067 (at an average of 601 successful passes per game).

Simeone is far less concerned with his side having the ball, but instead the focus is on staying compact and robust defensively, drawing a mistake – a stray pass, a heavy touch – out of the opposition and pouncing. And in relative terms, his approach has been just as successful.

Not that this is Simeone's approach across the board. Atleti have played some wonderful football during his tenure too, and had some sensational attacking players. Indeed, their current frontline options of Joao Felix, Luis Suarez, Antoine Griezmann, Angel Correa and Matheus Cunha is the envy of most teams.

Yet this season, Atleti average only 48.8 per cent possession across 41 matches. They have completed 14,533 passes, with 7,317 of these coming in the opponents' half. In comparison, City have registered almost 16,000 successful passes in opposition territory.

However, the difference is not so stark when it comes to balls played into the box, with City's 1,730 accounting for 11 per cent of their passes in the opposition half. That value jumps to 16.5 per cent for Atleti (1,209).

Simeone's men get a higher proportion of their passes in the other team's half into the area, though City have had 1,870 touches in the opposition box, with Atleti managing 964.

In the league alone, City have had 715 sequences involving 10 or more passes. In LaLiga, Atleti have had just 278.

City's possession does, of course, lead to shots – 837 of them this season in total. That dwarves Atleti's 490, though the Spanish side do have a better conversion rate (14.7 compared to 13.5).

Fierce off the ball

One similarity when it comes to Guardiola and Simeone is their desire to be aggressive in their approach to winning the ball back. While Guardiola's team will swarm an opposing player, Simeone's men will be tenacious and full-blooded.

So far this season, Atletico players have gone into 4,263 duels, while City have attempted 3,848. However, the success rate is closer, with the Spanish champions winning 52 per cent, and City 51.1.

Another major difference, however, is how City press.

In the Premier League, only Liverpool (354) and Brighton and Hove Albion (290) have forced more high turnovers than City (285), and Guardiola's side rank second when it comes to the average starting distance of their attacks from their own goal (45.1 metres).

When it comes to passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), a measurement to quantify the extent and aggression of high presses, City rank joint-second, along with Liverpool, in the Premier League, with their 9.9 only bettered by Leeds United's 9.5.

Atleti's 207 high turnovers ranks ninth in LaLiga. However, their seven goals from direct attacks is joint-best in Spain's top tier. City have scored four times from such breaks this term.

Solidity comes first

This season, admittedly, Atleti have been unusually sloppy at the back, conceding 50 times and keeping 12 clean sheets, which is 17 more and 10 fewer than City, respectively.

Tracked over the previous five full seasons, however (since Guardiola joined City in 2016), only once have Atleti conceded more times than City, in 2018-19 (44 to 39).

Guardiola's teams take more risks in possession and City have made 42 errors leading to goals across his time at the club. It's been worth the pay off, but Simeone's more conservative approach has yielded just 21 such mistakes in the same timeframe.

Defensive grit is the bedrock of Simeone's success, and since the start of 2016-17, Atleti have kept 144 clean sheets. Yet, it is City who top the charts across Europe's top five leagues, with an outstanding 152.

Given City have scored 113 goals already this season – 41 more than Atleti – perhaps this quarter-final will not quite be as even as it might have been in seasons gone by, and it is the side from Manchester who must be considered favourites.

But, as proved with their clinical display at Old Trafford in the round of 16, Atleti still have the ability to frustrate and pick their moments to shine in attack. 

This is further evidenced by Atleti's LaLiga-leading expected goals (xG) differential of +8.5 this season. In stark contrast, City have scored 6.2 goals fewer than the quality of their opportunities would have suggested.

However the tie plays out, it is sure to be an enthralling tussle.

Tuesday's Champions League fixtures feature two of the tournament favourites, but there are no easy games when the competition reaches the quarter-finals.

Manchester City are the bookmakers' favourites to lift the trophy but will need to safely navigate their way past 2020-21 LaLiga champions Atletico Madrid, starting with Tuesday's first leg at the Etihad Stadium.

Liverpool are right behind City in the odds, but the Reds face a tough trip to Portugal where they will play Benfica after the home side triumphed over a strong Ajax team in the previous round.

While the English teams are well fancied, the Opta facts show Atleti coach Diego Simeone should not be daunted by City boss Pep Guardiola, and Benfica's Estadio da Luz has been anything but a happy hunting ground for Liverpool.

Manchester City v Atletico Madrid

This will be the first ever meeting between City and Atleti in European competition, but the fourth between the respective bosses of the two clubs. None of the previous three games ended in a draw, as Guardiola won two and Simeone triumphed in the other.

While Simeone is down on the head-to-head record, his Atleti side eliminated Guardiola’s Bayern Munich in the semi-finals of the 2015-16 Champions League (2-2 on aggregate), progressing on away goals. 

Showing his side can win ugly, across the two legs, Atletico averaged just 27 per cent possession and scored their two goals from 18 shots, while Bayern netted the same number of goals from 53 attempts.

City should have some reliable avenues to goal, as only Vinicius Junior (44) has been directly involved in more shots than Riyad Mahrez (42 – 29 shots, 13 chances created) in the Champions League this season. 

One of Mahrez's chief suppliers is likely to be Kevin De Bruyne, who will make his 50th Champions League appearance for City if he plays in the first leg.

Since his first season at the club in 2015-16, he has more assists than any other player for an English club (17) in the competition. 

However, Atleti may be uniquely positioned to repel some of City's attacking firepower, as no goalkeeper has kept more Champions League clean sheets since 2014-15 than Jan Oblak, with 30 clean sheets in 67 appearances.

Meanwhile, City have only failed to score in one of their 28 home games under Guardiola.

Atleti are also the first side to face both Manchester United and Manchester City in the knockout stages of a European competition in a season since Juventus in the 1976-77 UEFA Cup – the Italian side would go on to progress from both of those ties before winning the whole thing.

Liverpool v Benfica 

Liverpool are aiming to win a fifth consecutive away game in Europe's premier competition for only the second time in their history, having last done so between 1983 and 1984 under Joe Fagan.

While Liverpool are a very different beast in recent years under Jurgen Klopp, they have lost on each of their last three away trips to face Benfica in European competition, with the most recent of those coming in the Europa League in 2009-10 under Rafa Benítez.

On the other hand, Benfica are winless in their past four homes matches against English sides in the Champions League since beating Liverpool in 2006, with one draw and three losses.

The home side will need a big performance from Darwin Nunez, who is Benfica’s top scorer in the Champions League this season, having netted four times so far. He is just one goal shy of equalling Nuno Gomes as the player with the most goals for Benfica in a single Champions League campaign (five goals in 1998-99).

Meanwhile, Liverpool boast one of the main hopes for the Ballon D'or in Mohamed Salah, who has scored eight goals in the Champions League this season and could become the first player to score 10+ goals in multiple seasons for the Reds in the competition. 

The only other player from an English club to reach double-figure goals in a European Cup/Champions League campaign on more than one occasion was Ruud van Nistelrooy in 2001-02 and 2002-03 for Manchester United.

Benfica will need to be efficient going forward, as their 40 per cent possession in the Champions League this season is the lowest of any remaining team, while only Real Madrid (23) have recorded more direct attacks than the Portuguese side.

Diego Simeone hailed the football that Manchester City produce but promised Atletico Madrid will play where they can hurt Pep Guardiola's side in the first leg of the Champions League quarter-final.

Atleti overcame Manchester United 2-1 on aggregate in their last-16 clash to tee up the first-ever meeting in Europe between the Spanish side and City, who cruised past Sporting in the last round.

However, Simeone and Guardiola are no stranger to one another given they have faced each other three times, with the former eliminating the Spaniard's Bayern Munich in the 2015-16 Champions League semi-final.

Atletico averaged just 27 per cent possession across the two legs and scored twice from 18 shots, while Bayern netted the same number of goals from 53 attempts, as Simeone's team progressed on away goals.

Simeone was quick to praise City's flowing attacking performances, but insisted his side will look to exploit any potential weaknesses in the City line-up on Tuesday.

"What I like most from teams like City is the effort they have to win the ball back and continue to play attacking," he said at a pre-match news conference. "They're lovely to watch.

"They continue evolving because they have great players but what wakes me up, the important things are [Raheem] Sterling, [Kevin] De Bruyne, they're always active, never leave a ball lost. All managers want that."

He added: "We'll play where we think we can hurt them, use our characteristics the way we've played for years. We play to compete and we'll see."

Indeed, the reigning LaLiga champions will become the first side to face both Manchester clubs in the knockout stages of a European competition in a season since Juventus in the 1976-77 UEFA Cup.

Juve progressed from both of those ties before winning the competition that season, but Simeone's focus remains solely on the Etihad Stadium.

"We all have pressure, I don't know if pressure is the right word," he responded when asked if City were favourites to win the Champions League. 

"We all have it but no doubt City have extraordinary players and I'm sure they have better players than us.

"All clubs in the last eight want to win the competition. There are great rivals in all knockout games and I hope we can win.

"There are two games to play. City and Bayern are favourites because they have more options in their squads but last year not many expected Chelsea to win; they got better and played a good tournament."

Guardiola joked he would "overthink" to take a different approach to what Simeone might expect, but Atleti's coach is uninterested in all of the commotion between the managerial pair facing off again.

"Not at all, City and Atletico have great squads, very competitive with good players, different characteristics," he said when asked if it was Pep versus Simeone.

"They have a lot of personality. Tomorrow is a game for footballers, we as coaches try and help them and we'll do the same. I'll say again, I like watching City play."

Bernardo Silva welcomes the pressure on Manchester City to continue their charge for a maiden Champions League title when they face Atletico Madrid in the quarter-final in what is "not just another game".

Pep Guardiola's Premier League side cruised through their last-16 clash with Sporting, winning 5-0 on aggregate, to tee up their first meeting with Atletico in European competition.

The Etihad Stadium will play host to the first leg on Tuesday before the return meeting in Spain on April 13 as City look to lift the Champions League for the first time in their history.

City have only lost one of their last nine games in the competition beyond the group stage (W7 D1), with that defeat coming in the final last season against Chelsea.

Silva openly acknowledged the pressure on his team to deliver European success, but he sees it as an opportunity as opposed to a reason for concern.

"It's not just another game, it's a very important game for us, it's a competition that maybe just Scott Carson has won," he told reporters at Monday's pre-match news conference.

"Pep as well but the club has never won it. Most of us have never won it. We really want to do it. Over the years we weren't able to do it, it is the only one missing and we want to go for it again.

"The pressure is always there and we know these fans always expect us to perform well in this competition and we're going to try our best to make our fans happy and proud of us."

Pressed on the frustrations of Europe's premier club competition evading City so far, Silva added: "We know how important this competition is. It's where the best clubs in Europe play.

"It's definitely a goal. It's a thing that we really want to achieve but if we are going to achieve it - nobody knows. The only thing we can promise to our fans and the club is that we're going to do our best and try as hard as we can to achieve that.

When asked about the pressure to win the tournament when seemingly appearing the favourites, Silva responded: "I don't think it is anxiety but pressure. Pressure to win is nice because it means you're in a great club fighting for everything.

"It is pressure that we want because we want to win those competitions. Atletico are a great side also, I'm sure they have that same thing. There is lots of pressure from the fans to continue to win.

"They are the champions of Spain and they also have to do well in the Champions League. There is lots of pressure on both sides but we are players used to this and we will manage it really well."

Guardiola and Simeone have faced off four times before in their managerial career, with the latter eliminating the Spaniard's Bayern Munich on away goals in the 2015-16 Champions League semi-final.

Atletico averaged just 27 per cent possession across the two legs and scored twice from 18 shots, while Bayern netted the same number of goals from 53 attempts, and Silva believes Simeone's visitors will pose a unique challenge.

"Honestly, no. Maybe the style of play might be similar to some teams in the Premier League," he said of how Atletico compared to English teams.

"It's a team with some of the best players in the world. It's not comparable. Club teams in England, most or all, don't play like Atletico, which makes the game different. Very competitive, organised, with a specific style of play. It wasn't easy for [Manchester] United, Liverpool two years ago. It won't be easy for us but if we follow Pep's plan it will work out.

"The team I see today is better prepared than even last season. It comes from disappointment. We know each other better. It’s been five or six years we’ve been with Pep. We keep learning from our mistakes."

City's focus will quickly turn to a home clash with Liverpool on Sunday that is being labelled as a title decider, with Jurgen Klopp's side just a point behind Guardiola's leaders with eight games to play.

However, Silva suggested the crucial double-header within five days of each other is a compliment to the quality of his team.

"The players are used to it," he continued. "It’s a good sign and it means we are there to fight for titles. It's good to be able to fight for all of them. We enjoy it, playing against the best teams for the best competitions."

Pep Guardiola says the debate regarding the contrasting styles of his Manchester City side and Diego Simeone's Atletico Madrid "is stupid".

The reigning champions of England and Spain face off at the Etihad Stadium on Tuesday in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final tie.

While Atletico have become famed for their organised and somewhat defensive set-ups, City are considered one of the finest footballing sides anywhere in world football.

However, ahead of facing Simeone for a fourth time in their managerial careers, Guardiola has defended the Argentine's style of play.

"I'm not going to talk one second about this stupid debate," Guardiola said at Monday's pre-match news conference. 

"Everyone tries to win the game. If they win they are right, if we win we are right. It's for the players, the difference will be there. Honestly, not one second.

"After watching Atletico there is a misconception, wrong, about the way Simeone plays. It's more offensive than people believe. 

"He doesn't want to take a risk in the build up but they have quality in the final third. They know exactly how to play. In the moments of the game, these situations are really good."

Guardiola, who has won two of those previous three meetings with Simeone, added: "What is playing ugly? 

"My team won 1-0 at Old Trafford and Bernardo Silva spent five minutes in the corner, that is not ugly. It's defending the position. 

"I'm here to talk about what we try to do. I never judge the opponents. What they do, what we have to do to win."

City have won eight major domestic honours in Guardiola's five full campaigns at the club, but they have yet to lift the Champions League under the Catalan coach.

Guardiola has at times been criticised for overthinking his team selections and he joked he will take a different approach in the first leg against Atletico.

"In the Champions League I always overthink," he said. "There are always new tactics. Tomorrow you will see a new one. I overthink a lot, that's why I have very good results.

"It would be boring if I always played the same way. If people think I play the same against Atletico and Liverpool, I don't like. 

"The movements are different, the players are all different with different personalities. That's why I overthink and create stupid tactics.

"Tonight I take an inspiration and I'm going to do incredible tactics tomorrow. We play with 12 tomorrow!"

While Guardiola and Simeone have crossed paths before, Tuesday's match will be the first time City and Atletico have faced off in European competition.

Guardiola has won three of his four meetings with Spanish clubs in the Champions League while in charge of City, with those being the most recent three.

City's reward should they better Atleti over the two legs will be a semi-final against either Real Madrid or Chelsea, the latter a possible repeat of last season's final.

The Citizens are also in the semi-finals of the FA Cup and lead Liverpool by one point at the top of the Premier League ahead of the two sides facing off next Sunday.

That game could go a long way to determining which team wins the title, but Guardiola is only focused on the Atletico match for now.

"If you don't play these games you're out of the competition," he said. "It's a joy to be here every season. To arrive every season, April, May to fight for titles we've done well. 

"But any bad results now and you're out of competitions. Every opponent is tough in this stage. Every team has a particular way to play. You have to adapt and adjust."

Pep Guardiola must be wary of the "complicated" challenge Atletico Madrid can pose to Manchester City in the Champions League quarter-final, according to Luis Garcia and Jose Enrique.

Atletico battled to a 2-1 aggregate victory over Manchester United in their last-16 clash to tee up a first-ever meeting in Europe between Diego Simeone's side and City.

But Guardiola and Simeone are no strangers to one another given they have faced off four times, and Atleti eliminated the Spaniard's Bayern Munich in the 2015-16 Champions League semi-finals.

Atletico averaged just 27 per cent possession across the two legs and scored twice from 18 shots, while Bayern netted the same number of goals from 53 attempts as the Spanish side progressed on away goals.

Garcia, who enjoyed two spells at Atleti during his playing career, expects Simeone to set up in a familiar fashion when the two teams meet on Tuesday and warned that City could suffer on the counter-attack.

"It is one of the teams that you don't want to face, because of the rhythm and the players that Guardiola has developed, he knows how to use the players in every situation," he told Stats Perform. 

"But Atletico is a complicated team when they have confidence and return to the basics of defending well together.

"With players in attack like Joao Felix and Angel Correa, with players like Yannick Carrasco and Marcos Llorente, they can be dangerous on counter-attacks and we have seen City suffer against teams that sit back."

Former Liverpool defender Enrique echoed his fellow Spaniard's thoughts as he insisted Simeone will not care how his side plays as long as they get a result.

"Sometimes Cholo [Simeone] gets hit, but in this type of competition he knows what he has to do and it won't be easy," he said to Stats Perform. 

"Pep knows Cholo a lot and Cholo knows Pep a lot. Manchester City is going to have possession and that doesn't matter to Cholo, he just wants to win and across two games, Cholo is very complicated and can beat anyone."

After eliminating Ralf Rangnick's United with a 1-0 victory at Old Trafford, Atleti are eyeing consecutive wins on away trips to face English sides in European competition before the second leg in Spain on April 13.