Manchester City remain the likely Premier League champions and are on course to pip weekend opponents Liverpool to the title as the race reaches its home straight.
The top two each have eight games remaining and the first comes on Sunday when they go head-to-head at the Etihad Stadium in what many are billing a title decider.
That is hyperbole of course, but for City it is the last time they will face a team currently in the top five, so by that logical reasoning it is the game where they are most likely to slip up.
Arsenal are the team likeliest to snatch fourth place and a Champions League ticket for next season, while at the foot of the table it is almost too close to call between Everton and Burnley for the third relegation place, with Leeds United now standing just a 12.2 per cent chance of sliding down to the Championship.
Stats Perform AI analysis has given us a strong sense of how the standings might look come the season's final whistle on Sunday, May 22, but the figures also show us there remains plenty to play for.
PEP TO WIN THE TITLE BATTLE AGAIN?
Pep Guardiola's City head into the crucial contest with a one-point advantage over a Liverpool side who have been closing the gap since trailing by 14 points on January 15, albeit with Jurgen Klopp's Reds having played two fewer games at that time.
It is clear this remains a title race that could yet go either way, but City stand a 65.6 per cent chance of carrying off the trophy for a second season in a row, with Liverpool, their lone rivals for silverware, having a 34.4 per cent opportunity.
Diego Simeone described City as "an extraordinary rival" after Atletico Madrid's 1-0 defeat at the Etihad Stadium on Tuesday, and the second leg of that Champions League tie follows three days after the Liverpool game.
City's Premier League opponents for the remainder of the campaign will then be, in order: Brighton (home), Watford (home), Leeds United (away), Newcastle United (home), West Ham (away) and Aston Villa (home), with a trip to Wolves also to be arranged for a date to be confirmed.
Liverpool, also with Champions League commitments and an FA Cup semi-final against City to come, have what looks a more daunting Premier League run-in after this weekend, beginning with two huge Anfield games: Manchester United (home), Everton (home), Newcastle (away), Tottenham (home), Aston Villa (away), Southampton (away), Wolves (home).
They are 64.7 per cent likely to finish as runners-up, the Stats Perform prediction shows, and 0.9 per cent likely to be caught by Chelsea for second place. City are 0.3 per cent likely to throw it away and finish third. Now that would be some story.
Of all teams in the top flight, third-placed Chelsea are the most likely to finish in their current position. That is calculated as a 94.5 per cent probability.
GO FOURTH AND PROSPER?
The last Champions League qualifying berth is the prize that looks to be a slug-off between north London rivals Tottenham and Arsenal, who will meet in a May 12 derby.
Both sit on 54 points heading into this weekend, with Tottenham fourth for now but Arsenal having played one fewer game.
Momentum could change considerably, but for now Arsenal are predicted to have a 59.1 per cent chance of taking fourth spot, with Tottenham given a 31.9 per cent shot (50.8 per cent to be fifth).
Who else might take fourth and secure the riches that come with Champions League involvement? Well, Chelsea are reckoned to have a 4.0 per cent prospect of slipping there (and a 0.3 per cent chance of nose-diving to fifth), while Manchester United are three points adrift of Spurs and the Gunners, sitting in seventh ahead of a weekend trip to struggling Everton, and are given a 4.2 per cent hope of finishing so high.
That would be a massive boost to United's next boss, but it remains a slim hope. In fact, United's most likely finishing position, according to the predictor, is sixth place (46.1 per cent).
Former Red Devils boss David Moyes has probably seen his West Ham side's hopes of a top-four finish slip away. The Hammers are also just three points behind Tottenham and Arsenal but have played more games than both and are given a trifling 0.7 per cent chance of coming home fourth.
GOING DOWN WITH THE NORWICH?
The Canaries of Norwich are so far down the relegation pit of despair they can surely smell Championship gas. They stand a 1.3 per chance of survival, and are 81.3 per cent likely to finish rock bottom.
Second-bottom Watford are given an 18 per cent chance of staying up by the predictor, and home games against Leeds, Brentford, Burnley, Everton and Leicester City mean that door to survival should be considered just slightly ajar.
Leeds could yet plummet, but if Norwich and Watford are the likeliest two sides to exit the Premier League, then Burnley and Everton are the two most obviously jostling to avoid joining them.
For now, after a bruising 3-2 defeat at Burnley on Wednesday, Everton are rated 49.4 per cent shots to finish inside the bottom three, compared to 53.2 per cent for Sean Dyche's Clarets.
It is knife-edge stuff, hardly the end of the table where Frank Lampard is at his most comfortable.
Come the final day, Lampard's Everton might need something from a trip to Arsenal, who in turn might need points in that fourth-place battle.
HOW THE NUMBERS ARE WORKED OUT
Stats Perform's League Prediction model simulates the outcomes of the remaining matches to estimate the likelihood of teams finishing in each position.
The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) from the latest available betting market odds data or, when not available, by using an internal win probability model that is powered by historical team strengths.
Based on these probabilities, the results of the remaining matches can be simulated. The outcome of the season is simulated 10,000 separate times in order to estimate the likelihood of each team finishing in each league position.
Sessegnon rejoins boyhood club Fulham after Tottenham departure
Ryan Sessegnon has resigned for Fulham on a free transfer, five years after leaving the club.
The 24-year-old signed a two-year contract with the Cottagers with the option to extend for a further year following his departure from Tottenham last month.
In his first spell at the club, Sessegnon worked his way through the academy over 11 years, scoring 25 goals in 120 first-team appearances.
He then moved to Spurs in a £25million deal in 2019, though struggled to nail down a place in North London, making just 57 appearances in all competitions, and scoring three goals.
"It's amazing to be back. Emotional, as well," he told FFCtv. "It's where it started for me, where everything began, and it's amazing to be back.
"It will always be home for me. I think it had the feeling that it was meant to be, coming back here, so I'm delighted to get it done."
Sessegnon is Fulham's first signing of the transfer window, though they have seen plenty of first-team departures already, with Joao Palhinha, Tosin Adarabioyo and Bobby De Cordova-Reid all leaving the club.
Ederson slams reports of rift with Man City backup Ortega
Ederson has hit out at reports of a rift between himself and fellow Manchester City goalkeeper Stefan Ortega.
The Brazilian was substituted after suffering a fractured eye socket in City's penultimate game of the Premier League season, a vital 1-0 win over Tottenham.
Ortega replaced him and made a brilliant save to deny Son Heung-min as City maintained their slender lead over Arsenal at the top of the table, sealing an unprecedented fourth straight title by beating West Ham five days later.
Ortega was widely lauded for his role in that triumph, and an article published by The Athletic this week suggested Ederson took issue with that praise.
However, the goalkeeper – who missed the Copa America as a result of his injury – has now moved to shut down those suggestions with a post to his Instagram story.
"I would like to clarify that the note published by The Athletic yesterday, referring to my alleged dissatisfaction with a co-worker, is completely false," he wrote.
"The alleged day reported was, without a doubt, one of the most difficult days of my career, when I suffered a fracture that prevented me from playing in the final stretch of the season and, consequently, from representing my country in the Copa America.
"At the time of the injury, my only thought was to continue in the match, defending City in the fight for the title.
"But the emotion of the match would be greater than the reality and, inevitably, I would not be able to continue as I would have liked due to the damage it caused, completely blocking my field of vision. I remain focused on preparing for the season."
Ederson has been linked with a transfer in recent days, reportedly attracting interest from Saudi Pro League clubs.
Slot's Liverpool success will be measured by trophies, says McAllister
Gary McAllister says Arne Slot must be prepared to aim high by targeting trophies if he is to be successful with Liverpool.
The Dutchman is set to begin his first season in charge of the Reds after being appointed as Jurgen Klopp's successor in May.
Liverpool enjoyed a trophy-laden spell under the German, winning their first-ever Premier League title, as well as a Champions League, a Club World Cup, a Super Cup, an FA Cup and two EFL Cups.
However, Slot was no stranger to success while at Feyenoord, leading the team to the Eredivisie title in 2022-23 before lifting the KNVB Cup in April during his final season with the club.
McAllister, who won five trophies in the two years he spent at Liverpool, says Slot's success will be determined by the silverware he collects.
"Liverpool is a club that's synonymous with winning, and when you don't win you fail," McAllister told Stats Perform.
"When there's a new management team, you're given a little bit more time, but the facts are Liverpool's target, I felt, and as a player that played against them for most of his career, the targets that Liverpool set, you go into every tournament looking to win it.
"You try to win every game and that's the expectation of the club and that's what makes it a very special club."
Klopp spent nine years at Liverpool, breaking club records as his team pushed for trophies on a regular basis.
The Reds enjoyed a club-record 68-match unbeaten run at Anfield over nearly four years in the Premier League between April 2017 and January 2021.
Klopp also oversaw three of the four most prolific seasons in Liverpool's history, including the club-record total of 147 goals scored in 2021-22.
Slot has admitted he has "big shoes to fill", but McAllister believes the 45-year-old will be able to live up to the high expectations left behind by Klopp.
"Arne arriving at the club, following Klopp, realising that it's such a difficult job anyway, but to follow somebody who's done particularly well at the club over an eight, nine-year period is going to be tough, and I don't think the new manager is under any illusions," he added.
"What I would say is he's a man that seems to be a very strong character, good personality, and he's just got to come in and be his own man and trust what he does.
"He's done very well in his previous managerial career and coming to Liverpool I feel is a natural progression in the levels of the game that he's worked at.
"So, everybody at the club will be deeply backing him and be right behind him, he'll have amazing support."
Liverpool's first pre-season game under Slot ended in a 1-0 defeat to Preston North End last week before the players flew out to the United States for a three-game tour.
They are also only one of two Premier League clubs yet to conduct any business in the transfer window so far, but McAllister urged fans to be patient with Slot while he gets settled in his new role.
"Whenever there's a change at a club, I think the fans have got to realise that it does take time for a new manager, a new coaching group to come in and get their ideas over to the players," he said.
"There's got to be a modicum of patience, but at Liverpool, expectation levels are very, very high and sometimes, in professional soccer, in elite soccer, patience is something that most managers don't get.
"As much as the fans have got to be aware that everything is new and there are new ideas, Arne and the players will want to get off to a quick start.
"I feel that this pre-season tour is going to help them start the season against Ipswich Town very strongly. I feel the games that they've got here in the US, here in Pittsburgh against Betis, and then we go to play Arsenal and Manchester United, the build-up is pretty good."
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