Manchester City remain the likely Premier League champions and are on course to pip weekend opponents Liverpool to the title as the race reaches its home straight.
The top two each have eight games remaining and the first comes on Sunday when they go head-to-head at the Etihad Stadium in what many are billing a title decider.
That is hyperbole of course, but for City it is the last time they will face a team currently in the top five, so by that logical reasoning it is the game where they are most likely to slip up.
Arsenal are the team likeliest to snatch fourth place and a Champions League ticket for next season, while at the foot of the table it is almost too close to call between Everton and Burnley for the third relegation place, with Leeds United now standing just a 12.2 per cent chance of sliding down to the Championship.
Stats Perform AI analysis has given us a strong sense of how the standings might look come the season's final whistle on Sunday, May 22, but the figures also show us there remains plenty to play for.
PEP TO WIN THE TITLE BATTLE AGAIN?
Pep Guardiola's City head into the crucial contest with a one-point advantage over a Liverpool side who have been closing the gap since trailing by 14 points on January 15, albeit with Jurgen Klopp's Reds having played two fewer games at that time.
It is clear this remains a title race that could yet go either way, but City stand a 65.6 per cent chance of carrying off the trophy for a second season in a row, with Liverpool, their lone rivals for silverware, having a 34.4 per cent opportunity.
Diego Simeone described City as "an extraordinary rival" after Atletico Madrid's 1-0 defeat at the Etihad Stadium on Tuesday, and the second leg of that Champions League tie follows three days after the Liverpool game.
City's Premier League opponents for the remainder of the campaign will then be, in order: Brighton (home), Watford (home), Leeds United (away), Newcastle United (home), West Ham (away) and Aston Villa (home), with a trip to Wolves also to be arranged for a date to be confirmed.
Liverpool, also with Champions League commitments and an FA Cup semi-final against City to come, have what looks a more daunting Premier League run-in after this weekend, beginning with two huge Anfield games: Manchester United (home), Everton (home), Newcastle (away), Tottenham (home), Aston Villa (away), Southampton (away), Wolves (home).
They are 64.7 per cent likely to finish as runners-up, the Stats Perform prediction shows, and 0.9 per cent likely to be caught by Chelsea for second place. City are 0.3 per cent likely to throw it away and finish third. Now that would be some story.
Of all teams in the top flight, third-placed Chelsea are the most likely to finish in their current position. That is calculated as a 94.5 per cent probability.
GO FOURTH AND PROSPER?
The last Champions League qualifying berth is the prize that looks to be a slug-off between north London rivals Tottenham and Arsenal, who will meet in a May 12 derby.
Both sit on 54 points heading into this weekend, with Tottenham fourth for now but Arsenal having played one fewer game.
Momentum could change considerably, but for now Arsenal are predicted to have a 59.1 per cent chance of taking fourth spot, with Tottenham given a 31.9 per cent shot (50.8 per cent to be fifth).
Who else might take fourth and secure the riches that come with Champions League involvement? Well, Chelsea are reckoned to have a 4.0 per cent prospect of slipping there (and a 0.3 per cent chance of nose-diving to fifth), while Manchester United are three points adrift of Spurs and the Gunners, sitting in seventh ahead of a weekend trip to struggling Everton, and are given a 4.2 per cent hope of finishing so high.
That would be a massive boost to United's next boss, but it remains a slim hope. In fact, United's most likely finishing position, according to the predictor, is sixth place (46.1 per cent).
Former Red Devils boss David Moyes has probably seen his West Ham side's hopes of a top-four finish slip away. The Hammers are also just three points behind Tottenham and Arsenal but have played more games than both and are given a trifling 0.7 per cent chance of coming home fourth.
GOING DOWN WITH THE NORWICH?
The Canaries of Norwich are so far down the relegation pit of despair they can surely smell Championship gas. They stand a 1.3 per chance of survival, and are 81.3 per cent likely to finish rock bottom.
Second-bottom Watford are given an 18 per cent chance of staying up by the predictor, and home games against Leeds, Brentford, Burnley, Everton and Leicester City mean that door to survival should be considered just slightly ajar.
Leeds could yet plummet, but if Norwich and Watford are the likeliest two sides to exit the Premier League, then Burnley and Everton are the two most obviously jostling to avoid joining them.
For now, after a bruising 3-2 defeat at Burnley on Wednesday, Everton are rated 49.4 per cent shots to finish inside the bottom three, compared to 53.2 per cent for Sean Dyche's Clarets.
It is knife-edge stuff, hardly the end of the table where Frank Lampard is at his most comfortable.
Come the final day, Lampard's Everton might need something from a trip to Arsenal, who in turn might need points in that fourth-place battle.
HOW THE NUMBERS ARE WORKED OUT
Stats Perform's League Prediction model simulates the outcomes of the remaining matches to estimate the likelihood of teams finishing in each position.
The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) from the latest available betting market odds data or, when not available, by using an internal win probability model that is powered by historical team strengths.
Based on these probabilities, the results of the remaining matches can be simulated. The outcome of the season is simulated 10,000 separate times in order to estimate the likelihood of each team finishing in each league position.
Xavi commits U-turn and elects to stay at Barcelona
Barcelona head coach Xavi will continue in his role next season after an unexpected reversal of his decision to leave at the end of the 2023-24 campaign, according to widespread reports.
The former Barcelona midfielder announced in January that he would walk away from the job at the end of the current season, even though his contract was due to run until the end of the following term.
Xavi acknowledged the Barcelona role had taken its toll but reportedly changed his plans after a meeting with Blaugrana president Joan Laporta on Wednesday.
The 44-year-old was initially appointed as Barca coach in 2021 before leading the LaLiga giants to the top-flight title in the 2022-23 campaign.
Xavi's initial announcement of his intentions to depart Barcelona came after a tough period following defeats to Girona, Real Madrid and Athletic Club before revealing the news in the aftermath of a 5-3 loss to Villarreal.
The Blaugrana turned their fortunes around after that decision became public, though, going 13 games unbeaten across all competitions.
Unsurprisingly, that run encouraged Laporta, vice president Rafa Yuste and sporting director Deco to plead with Xavi to continue until the end of his agreed contract.
Though that undefeated streak ended with a 4-1 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain that dumped Barcelona out of the Champions League quarter-finals, Xavi has now agreed to stay in his role.
The league title is almost out of reach this term, however, as Real Madrid moved 11 points clear of second-placed Barca with Sunday's 3-2 Clasico victory.
Slot pursuit shows Liverpool running out of options, suggests Carragher
Liverpool's pursuit of Feyenoord boss Arne Slot proves there is "a dearth" of elite coaches currently on the market, according to former Reds defender Jamie Carragher.
On Wednesday, widespread reports claimed Liverpool have entered talks with Feyenoord, who will reportedly demand at least €10million (£8.5m) in compensation to part with Slot.
Slot joined Feyenoord in July 2021 after leaving AZ Alkmaar, leading the Eredivisie giants to the Europa Conference League final – which they lost to Roma – in his first campaign at the helm.
The club's second league title in 20 years followed in 2022-23, and though Feyenoord are set to relinquish their crown to PSV this term, they beat NEC Nijmegen to lift the KNVB Cup on Sunday.
Xabi Alonso was thought to be Liverpool's primary target to replace outgoing boss Jurgen Klopp, but the former midfielder – who was also interesting Bayern Munich – has announced his intention to stay with Bayer Leverkusen.
Sporting CP's Ruben Amorim was also linked with the post, but it is thought he is no longer a leading candidate.
Speaking in his role as a Sky Sports pundit ahead of Wednesday's Merseyside derby between Liverpool and Everton, Carragher warned the job will be a major step up for Slot if he is appointed.
"What I would say is I think going from Feyenoord to Liverpool is a huge jump, and I think it shows at this moment that there's probably a dearth of real top managers out there," he said.
"Initially it was Xabi Alonso, it's only his first full season as a manager. Then there was talk of Ruben Amorim from Sporting, again he's only 39. Now Arne Slot looks like he's the favourite.
"I don't think it's like Rafael Benitez coming in, or Jurgen Klopp. Benitez came in off the back of two LaLiga titles and a UEFA Cup, Klopp had won a couple of league titles with Borussia Dortmund.
"Liverpool were in a different space back then, certainly the team I was part of with Benitez… we were a team looking to qualify for the top four. It was the same when Klopp came in.
"Liverpool are in a different area now, fancying themselves to challenge for the Premier League every season, and in next season's Champions League they'd expect to reach the quarter-finals at least.
"I think it's a huge jump but he's obviously a great coach with a great track record with the clubs he's been at so far. We'll see."
Premier League title race gets Man City's blood pumping - Guardiola
Pep Guardiola relishes the decisiveness of the Premier League run-in, as Manchester City prepare for another huge game in the title race.
The Citizens breezed past Luton Town 5-1 at the Etihad Stadium in their last outing in the competition, but were not in Premier League action at the weekend.
While they booked a place in the FA Cup final with a 1-0 win against Chelsea on Saturday, Arsenal went back to the summit by recording wins over Wolves and the Blues before Liverpool also leapfrogged Guardiola’s team with a 3-1 victory at Fulham on Sunday.
City, who will be without the injured Erling Haaland, face Brighton on Thursday, in what is one of their two games in hand on the Gunners.
Asked how he feels going into the final few games of the season with so much on the line, Guardiola said: “Every game is adrenalin. Every game is important. But yes it’s decisive. Every mistake or every step back makes it more difficult. It is what it is.
“We have been here in the last years fortunately many times so that’s why we know what we are playing for.”
Guardiola was also questioned about the criticism levelled at match officials after Nottingham Forest’s strongly worded statement following their 2-0 defeat at Everton on Sunday.
"Absolutely disagree. In every league in the world, this kind of thing will happen more and more, but of course, I never had doubts about that,” said Guardiola.
"They make a mistake, they feel bad. It's normal. When they do the job, they want to do it well. The game is so difficult, it is fast and quick, decisions have to be made in one instant. It's not easy.”
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