Consistent domination is difficult to achieve in the NFL. Not since the 1993 season have the same teams played in the Super Bowl in successive years and no team has won back-to-back Super Bowls since the 2004 New England Patriots. Parity is one of the league's primary selling points but, while it largely retains a balance among clubs in terms of results on the field, there can be no doubt there is a scheme establishing dominion over the NFL.
Sunday's clash between the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams will mark the third time in the last four seasons that an NFL campaign has come to end with a game featuring at least one team employing a version of the offense run by Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay.
With McVay going up against his former assistant in Bengals head coach Zac Taylor, Super Bowl LVI will serve as a compelling illustration of the pre-eminence that offensive scheme enjoys, and this recent round of coaching hires also painted the same picture.
The Miami Dolphins hired Shanahan's offensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers, Mike McDaniel, to be their new head coach. Nathaniel Hackett, having worked as offensive coordinator in that offense under Matt LaFleur with the Green Bay Packers, was appointed as the Denver Broncos head coach. Kevin O'Connell, the Rams offensive coordinator, cannot officially be hired by the Minnesota Vikings until the Super Bowl is over, but that agreement has already been reached.
Those hires have taken the tally of offensive head coaches from the Shanahan-McVay tree to five. Robert Saleh was Shanahan's defensive coordinator in San Francisco until 2021, and he took Niners passing game coordinator Mike LaFleur with him when he was hired by the New York Jets. Brandon Staley got the Los Angeles Chargers job last year after one season revolutionising the Rams on defense for McVay.
The fingerprints of Shanahan and McVay are all over the NFL, and they will be overtly smudged over the Super Bowl. One offensive system having this level of influence over the league feels unprecedented, but is it?
"If you look back at it, I assume if you did the actual lineage of it, the way that the league looked in the mid-90s, early 2000s, most of it probably comes enough from the Bill Walsh tree to say it's similar," Robert Mays, NFL writer for The Athletic, tells Stats Perform.
"It starts fragmenting because even if you look at the genealogy of the Shanahan tree, it comes from the Bill Walsh tree, because you have Mike Shanahan coming from San Francisco, they combine it with the wide zone running scheme, so now even that DNA is still sort of similar, if you go back far enough it all comes from the same place, but no I can't remember anything like it in this modern era, the last 10 years or so, because there just hasn't been anything similar. There were a lot of the Seattle defensive guys on that side of the ball but it still wasn't as popular as it is right now."
So why is it so popular? The obvious answer is its success.
The 49ers (first), Rams (fourth), Bengals (seventh) and Packers (eighth) all finished the regular season in the top 10 in yards per play. All four were playing on Divisional Round weekend.
But it is more than just the offensive efficiency and the results that have made Shanahan, McVay and now LaFleur assistants attractive to teams looking to turn their fortunes around, it is also a combination of the scheme, the adaptability of the scheme and the willingness of the coaches to take a flexible approach.
"What you have to understand about why the Niners are successful, why Sean is successful, it's not because they run this offense, it's their understanding of defensive rules and how to manipulate them is what makes them really successful, they all just happen to come from the same place," Mays explains.
"I think the quarterback-friendly aspect of it is really important. How they attack the middle of the field, the play-action, I do think it's the easiest way to get the most out of a quarterback in a quarterback-centric league.
Speaking to the quarterback-friendly nature of the offense, Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford threw to an open receiver on 82.5 per cent of his attempts, second behind Patrick Mahomes (85.5) among signal-callers with at least 200 pass attempts. Zach Wilson (79.5), playing in Mike LaFleur's offense, was 10th, and the likely departing 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was still above average on 79.1 per cent.
It goes beyond the quarterback, though, with wide receiver Andrew Hawkins, who played under Shanahan and Mike McDaniel during his time with the Cleveland Browns, enjoying personal experience of how they get the most out of the surrounding talent.
"The thing that anybody who played for Kyle, the Mikes and the LaFleur's and the McVay's, they figure out their offense around the players," Hawkins told Stats Perform.
"It's traditional for coaches to say 'here's my system' and they're gonna get jobs off their system and they say 'this is my system, this is the way we run it, this is the kind of tight end we need, we need this quarterback to do these things, we need this guy to do this and if they're not these kind of guys I'm gonna go find people who will do what I say, my system bang, bang, bang'.
"Shanahan and those guys, they don't do it that way. They are, I don't want to say true coaches, but to me, they're the best version of it because they'll come into a place and say hey Hawk, you're limited here, but you do these things really, really, really well and although my last receiver might have been 6'4", 215 pounds, your skill set is this so we're going to change things around that fit your skill set and get the best out of you for the best version of our offense it can be.
"That's what you want as a player, you want your coaches to understand your skill set and maybe not ask the 5'7" guy to go make jump-ball catches in the red zone, it's not exactly what I do, it's not my thing, I like to be in space, let's find ways to get me in space and that's what they'll do.
"They'll cater it to their players, to their O-Line, to their running backs, to their outside guy, their inside guy, their tight end, as players you want coaches who are gonna tell you the truth and put you in the best position to win for your skill set. Don't try to fit a square peg into a round hole and those coaches, just by philosophy, do it better most guys in the league."
Agreeing with Hawkins' assessment, Mays adds: "It's interesting because it takes on different flavours, that's the most important thing, you have to understand how it is tailored to your personnel."
And, though Taylor, cut his teeth under McVay, the way he has tailored his Bengals offense to his personnel has made their attack markedly different from that of the Rams.
Burrow did not throw to an open receiver as often, doing so just 76.9 per cent of the time, but that is reflective of a more aggressive downfield passing game that has regularly relied on the ball-winning skills of Ja'Marr Chase and his quarterback's unerring accuracy.
This season, Burrow led the NFL by delivering an accurate, well-thrown ball on 86.1 per cent of his pass attempts as his skill set meshed perfectly with a more ambitious passing game. No player produced more passing plays of more than 50 yards than Burrow with 12. Next on the list, Stafford, with 10.
"It's very different, it's much more spread out than you would see with Sean's offense, the Bengals are a spread team, they play in the shotgun, they have one of the widest formations on average in the entire NFL, they are not doing a lot of things that the Rams are doing," Mays says of the Bengals' attack.
"I think it's really tailored to, this is what we are, we have a true X receiver on the outside, we honestly have two because of what Tee Higgins is, we don't need to worry about all those bunches and stacks and things like that, and they run very little play-action, you think about the fact that Zac was under Sean in 2018 when the Rams were running play-action 38 per cent of the time or whatever it was, and the Bengals are like under 20 with one of the lowest rates in the entire NFL."
Matt LaFleur weaponised the scheme in Green Bay via the brilliance of Aaron Rodgers, McVay has molded it around Stafford following the trade that sent Jared Goff to Detroit and moved away from play-action somewhat while Shanahan has leaned heavily on the run with the 49ers. McDaniel, O'Connell and Hackett will surely recreate the system to mesh with their respective talent pools and, ultimately, what owners and general managers are buying when they invest in an assistant from the McVay and Shanahan offense is not the scheme, but the ingenuity these coaches gain from their association with two of the most talented football minds of this generation.
"I think what people are searching for when they hire all these Sean assistants, aren't necessarily we want this offensive system, it's we want whatever environment comes with these guys from this place," Mays observes. "Brandon Staley's not an offensive coach and they still hired him to be the head coach.
"I think they're trying to capture whatever this kind of incubator of football ideas is, that I feel like is what they're trying to tap into as much as the actual Xs and Os of the offensive scheme."
Patriots select QB Maye with third overall pick
The New England Patriots hope they now have their franchise quarterback after selecting North Carolina’s Drake Maye with the third overall pick in Thursday's NFL draft.
Maye was the third straight quarterback selected after the Chicago Bears took Caleb Williams at No. 1 and the Washington Commanders chose Jayden Daniels second.
Since Tom Brady departed New England following the 2019 season, the Patriots used Cam Newton as their primary quarterback the following season before drafting Mac Jones 15th overall in 2021.
Jones had a strong rookie season with 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions but tailed off to 24 TDs and 23 picks combined the past two seasons and was traded to Jacksonville in March.
Maye likely won’t be the Patriots’ starting quarterback at the start of the 2024 season after veteran signal caller Jacoby Brissett was signed to a one-year contract in March. Brissett has appeared in 79 NFL games with 48 starts and figures to serve as a mentor to Maye.
There is also the belief that Maye simply won’t be NFL ready in a few months and would be best served to sit a season, like what Patrick Mahomes did for the Chiefs in 2017.
Maye was the ACC Player of the Year in 2022 in his first season as a full-time starter at North Carolina, also being named the conference’s Offensive Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year. He broke Mitchell Trubisky’s school record and set an FBS freshman record with 4,321 passing yards and tied Sam Howell’s mark for passing touchdowns with 38 and threw just seven interceptions. He also displayed his mobility with nearly 700 yards rushing and seven scores.
This past season wasn’t as productive for Maye, who before the season lost offensive coordinator Phil Longo and receivers Josh Downs and Antoine Green to the NFL. Maye was still named to the Second Team All-ACC team as he passed for 3,608 yards with 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 12 games.
Maye has all the physical tools to succeed in the NFL, namely excellent arm talent and good mobility for someone of his size (6-foot-4, 223 pounds). He made a host of impressive touch throws in college and understands where to deliver a ball for a receiver to make a play on it.
There are some issues with Maye’s footwork and his tendency to trust his arm strength almost too much and force some throws. His weaknesses, though, seem like the kind that can be improved upon rather quickly and sitting for a full season - or at least most of one - would help greatly in this area.
Maye has drawn comparisons to Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers.
He isn’t quite the natural athlete that Allen is and probably doesn’t have Hebert’s arm strength, but it’s not far-fetched to think Maye could put up similar numbers to those two at the next level given the right coaching and situation.
Commanders take QB Jayden Daniels second in NFL draft
The Washington Commanders are confident that they have found their franchise quarterback.
With the second overall pick, the Commanders selected LSU’s Jayden Daniels, one of the most electric dual-threat quarterback prospects in recent memory.
The reigning Heisman Trophy winner led LSU to a 10-3 season last year and threw for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns with only four interceptions. He added 1,134 yards on the ground and 10 rushing touchdowns.
On Wednesday, Daniels downplayed reports that he was unhappy with the Commanders conducting a group interview with other top quarterback prospects.
“I'm blessed to go wherever I'm called,” Daniels told reporters. “Whoever calls my phone, whoever gives the card to the commissioner that says my name, I'm blessed to go and they're going to get my all.”
Daniels later clarified that he was “one hundred per cent” heading to Washington.
Despite gaudy production in his senior year, scouts were split on Daniels’ professional prospects, with some wondering if he possesses the pocket passing skills required for the NFL.
At 6-foot-4 and 210 pounds, Daniels is larger than most dual-threat prospects, and his ability to avoid turnovers his senior year was very promising.
But Daniels’ Heisman season is an outlier among his five seasons in college – three at Arizona State and the final two at LSU.
In his first 43 NCAA games, Daniels had a 143.8 passer rating. That number skyrocketed to 208.0 last season.
Due to his extended college career, Daniels will celebrate his 24th birthday during his rookie season in the NFL, making him significantly older than fellow top quarterback prospects Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.
Daniels joins a Commanders squad that went 4-13 last season with Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.
Dan Quinn replaces Ron Rivera as Washington’s head coach, and former Arizona Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury will take over as the Commanders’ offensive coordinator.
Record-setting first round of NFL draft goes offence heavy
Offence and then offence, some more offence followed by offence.
That was the story of a record-setting first round of the 2024 NFL Draft in Detroit on Thursday night.
For the first time in history, the first 14 picks were offensive players, including six quarterbacks and three wide receivers. The first defensive player didn’t come off the board until the Indianapolis Colts selected edge rusher Laiatu Latu from UCLA with the 15th pick.
The latest a first round had previously gone before a defensive player was taken was No. 8 overall. That’s where the Carolina Panthers took cornerback Jaycee Horn in 2021.
Not only were the 14 straight offensive players to start the draft a record, but it was also the first time 14 consecutive offensive players were taken at any point in the draft.
As expected, the first three picks were quarterbacks.
USC’s Caleb Williams – the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner - went first overall to the Chicago Bears, 2023 Heisman winner Jayden Daniels from LSU was picked next by the Washington Commanders and the New England Patriots took Drake Maye out of North Carolina.
This was the fourth time in the common draft era starting in 1967 that quarterbacks went with the top three picks.
The QBs continued to fly off the board soon after, with the Atlanta Falcons pulling the first surprise of the draft by selecting Michael Penix Jr. of Washington with the 8th overall pick.
The Falcons took Penix less than two months after signing veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract with $100 million guaranteed.
J.J. McCarthy was the next QB taken, as the Minnesota Vikings moved up one spot to 10th in a trade with the New York Jets. McCarthy went 27-1 as a starter at Michigan and won last season’s national championship.
The Denver Broncos grabbed Oregon signal-caller Bo Nix with the 12th pick as they look to settle a position that has been in flux since Peyton Manning. The Broncos have had 13 starting quarterbacks since Manning retired as a Super Bowl champion after the 2015 season.
Six quarterbacks selected in the first 12 picks tied the 1983 draft for the most taken in any first round. Three of those became Hall of Fame quarterbacks – John Elway, Dan Marino and Jim Kelly. Todd Blackledge, Tony Eason and Ken O’Brien also went in the first round in 1983.
The Arizona Cardinals stopped the run of quarterbacks by going for Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. at No. 4. The Los Angeles Chargers opened the Jim Harbaugh era by taking Notre Dame offensive tackle Joe Alt and the New York Giants picked up explosive LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers with the sixth pick.
After the Tennessee Titans took Alabama offensive tackle J.C. Latham with the seventh pick, the Bears took Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze at No. 9 with their second selection in the top 10.
The Vikings made the biggest move up in terms of spots, going from No. 23 to 17 in a swap with the Jacksonville Jaguars to select Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner.
The Jaguars selected LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. with the 23rd pick as they try to fill the void left by Calvin Ridley signing with division rival Tennessee in free agency.
It was only fitting that the final two picks of the first round were wide receivers. Ricky Pearsall of Florida went 31st to the San Francisco 49ers and South Carolina’s Xavier Legette was the last selection to the Carolina Panthers.
The 23 offensive players picked was easily the most in history, surpassing the previous record of 19 (1968, 2004 and 2009).
The Philadelphia Eagles made the biggest move of the night outside the draft, agreeing to a three-year contract extension with star wide receiver A.J. Brown.
The contract includes $84 million in guaranteed money and will make Brown the highest-paid wide receiver in the NFL at $32 million a season. He could earn as much as $96 million over the length of the extension.
Brown had 106 catches for 1,456 yards receiving last season after he had 88 catches for 1,496 yards in 2022, in his first season with the Eagles.
Brown spent his first three seasons with the Tennessee Titans after he was drafted 51st overall in the 2019 draft. He surpassed 1,000 yards receiving in each of his first two seasons in the NFL and had 869 in 13 games in his third season.
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