Despite claiming the number one seed in the AFC, there has not been much hype around the Tennessee Titans ahead of the start of their playoff campaign.
After they each exploded for five-touchdown performances in the Wild Card Round, most of the attention on the AFC side of the postseason has focused on the rematch between Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Kansas City Chiefs counterpart Patrick Mahomes.
Yet there is a 6ft 3in, 247-pound reason to pay attention to the Titans as they face Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals in the Divisional Round.
Running back Derrick Henry's season appeared to be over when he suffered a Jones fracture in his foot in the Titans' Week 8 clash with the Indianapolis Colts.
But he was activated from injured reserve this week and is in line to make his return for the visit of the Bengals as the Titans look to reach the AFC Championship Game for the second time in three seasons.
A two-time rushing champion, on the surface Henry's value to the Tennessee offense is obvious as an explosive powerhouse back who when healthy this season was threatening Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing yards record.
However, with the Titans continuing to excel on the ground even after Henry's injury, it is fair to ask: how much does his return actually matter?
A slight drop-off
If you looked solely at the raw numbers, it would be easy to answer that question in the affirmative.
Between Weeks 1 and 8, when Henry was on the field, the Titans were fourth in the NFL with 147.6 rushing yards per game.
After he went down injured, that average dropped to 135.9 yards per game, though that was still good enough to put them sixth in the league.
In other words, Henry was worth nearly 12 extra rushing yards - or one explosive run - a game to the Titans.
But in the grand scheme of things, that is a negligible difference and the counting statistics point to Tennessee still possessing an elite rushing attack even without Henry.
And a more granular look at the performance of Henry and the two backs that assumed the bulk of the workload in his absence, D'Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard, also suggests there was not much of a drop-off when he left the lineup.
Henry low on power?
Henry's fearsome reputation as the most overpowering running back in the NFL is one earned off the back of a string of highlight-reel runs comprising brute force and remarkable open-field speed for a man of his size.
More than simply bouncing off defenders, Henry is a back who can run them over at will.
That makes his numbers in terms of after-contact yardage this season extremely surprising.
Henry averaged 1.87 yards after contact per attempt in the regular season, below the league average of 1.95, with Foreman (1.92) outperforming him.
His average of 3.05 yards per rush attempt on carries where then was a run disruption by a defender was on the right side of the ledger. The league average in the regular season was 2.88 yards per carry.
Yet his efforts in that regard were inferior to those of both Foreman and Hilliard. Foreman averaged 3.40 yards per attempt when faced with a run disruption and Hilliard went beyond that with 4.03 yards per carry in those situations.
Their efficiency in that area is in part down to a smaller sample size, Henry carried the ball 219 times this season compared to 133 rush attempts for Foreman and 56 for Hilliard.
Still, Foreman and Hilliard got enough run in his absence to indicate that they were actually superior to Henry when it came to turning potential negative plays into gains for Tennessee.
In fact, Henry's most substantial contribution may not be what he does with the ball in his hands, but the influence the threat of him carrying it has on opposing defenses.
A play-action asset
He might not have been overly effective in gaining yards after contact in the regular season, however, it is obvious defenses still very much respect his ability to do so.
Indeed, Henry was consistently faced by defenses who committed an extra man to the box. Among running backs with at least 100 carries, Henry was fifth in the NFL in percentage of snaps where the opponent had one more man in the defensive box than the offense had in its box.
Per Stats Perform data, Henry encountered a 'bad box' on 58 per cent of his snaps compared to 48.2 per cent for Foreman. Additionally, on bad box plays where Henry was on the field, the Titans gained 6.05 yards per play but only 5.09 yards when he was off the field in those situations.
And the Titans excelled at using their opponents' aggressiveness in committing to stopping Henry against them.
The Titans sold the run to throw a pass on play-action or a quarterback bootleg on 25 per cent of their passing plays in the regular season, the second-highest rate in the NFL and well above the league average of 19 per cent.
Without Henry, they averaged 7.06 yards per play on play-action and bootleg passes, below the league average of 8.1. With Henry on the field, that figure ballooned to a remarkable 9.94 yards per play.
Henry's impact as a runner may be somewhat overstated, but his influence on the Titans' offense is not.
As a player whose reputation precedes him, Henry's mere presence forces defenses to commit more men to the box and helps set up play-action passes on which the Titans averaged almost enough yardage for a first down on every such play when he was healthy in 2021.
It remains to be seen how effective Henry can be after his lengthy spell on the sidelines, yet the numbers leave no doubt his return does matter. However, he is less important to what has been a consistent rushing attack than he is to a passing game that may need to go blow for blow with Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow to avoid a swift playoff exit.
Olympiacos 2-0 Aston Villa (6-2 agg): Villans fall in last four as El Kaabi strikes again
Olympiacos will face Fiorentina in the Europa Conference League final after an Ayoub El Kaabi double secured a 6-2 aggregate win over Aston Villa.
After a stunning 4-2 win at Villa Park last weekend to take the ascendancy in the semi-final tie, first-leg hat-trick hero El Kaabi struck early before netting again late on to stamp out any hopes of a Villa comeback.
After a strong start from the visitors, El Kaabi scored his fourth goal of the tie just 10 minutes into Thursday's second leg at Stadio Georgios Karaiskaki, getting on the end of Quini's low cross to turn home at the far post.
It looked an uphill battle for Villa, who dominated the possession throughout the contest in Greece but struggled to make a dent in the stubborn hosts.
Douglas Luiz saw a long-range effort saved by Kostas Tzolakis while the Olympiacos goalkeeper also denied Moussa Diaby. El Kaabi made sure late on, getting on the end of a long ball to fire past Martinez and secure Olympiacos' final berth.
The fairytale comeback never materialised for Villa, and it will be Olympiacos who take on Fiorentina at the Agia Sophia Stadium in the Greek capital of Athens on May 29, looking to utilise familiar surroundings to claim their first major European trophy.
Data debrief
El Kaabi was the hero again for Olympiacos as his two second-leg finishes took him to 10 Europa Conference League goals for the campaign, more than any other player, while his 13 strikes in major European competitions are also more than any other player when factoring in his three Europa League goals.
Villa had 73.9 per cent of the ball in the second leg, yet their 1.14 xG (expected goals) was still inferior to Olympiacos' 1.23 as the Greek Super League side's ruthlessness clinched their spot in the final.
Dyche demands 'maximum effort' as the minimum requirement from Everton
Sean Dyche is demanding maximum effort as the minimum requirement from Everton when they host already relegated Sheffield United this weekend.
Despite another nervy season at Goodison Park, during which they were deducted six points following a breach of Profitability and Sustainability Rules, the Toffees have secured their top-flight status for another year at least.
Everton are enjoying a strong end to the campaign with last weekend's 1-1 draw at Luton Town extending their unbeaten run to four matches, and Dyche is not expecting his players to rest on their laurels.
"I want us to perform and at least give everything, as we did at Luton," he said.
"You can’t always guarantee you are brilliant. But you can guarantee you give everything, and that was on show again this past weekend.
"The minimum requirement is maximum effort. It hasn’t changed, we want to take that into Goodison and hope we play a little bit better with the ball, and hopefully score some more goals."
Dyche also saluted the impact of the younger members of his squad, with eight players aged 25 or under appearing 10 or more times during a testing season.
"There are a lot of challenges for these players," he added. "But they are beginning to come together as a group, and we have seen that. It has rewarded us, of course, and the fans."
However, their opponents' focus is already on next season, with their immediate return to the Championship confirmed.
In an English top-flight campaign of 38 games or less, only Darwen (112 in 1891-92) and Leicester City (102 in 1908-09) have conceded more goals than the Blades (100).
Chris Wilder knows there is plenty of work to do in United's quest to bounce straight back into the Premier League, but believes the close season will allow him the opportunity to get them in the best shape possible.
"I'll have time to put my own stamp on it," he said. "I'll have time to sign players that I know are going to be good and have a strong enough mentality to do it.
“Defensively and from set-plays and everything else, there's an incredible amount of work to do. We can't do that at the moment because it's difficult, but we will do it, and we'll get it right in terms of those aspects of the game."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Everton – Jordan Pickford
The Everton goalkeeper has kept 12 clean sheets in the Premier League this season – including one in each of the Toffees’ last four home games – with only Arsenal’s David Raya recording more (15)
It is Pickford’s second-highest tally of shutouts in a single campaign after 2018-19 (14).
Sheffield United – Ben Brereton
Despite only joining the club in January, the Chile international has scored the most Premier League goals for the Blades this season (six).
Brereton’s rate of a goal every 158 in the second-best by a United player in a single campaign (minimum 500 minutes) after Nathan Blake in 1993-94 (a goal every 145 minutes).
MATCH PREDICTION: EVERTON
Everton have responded to their 6-0 defeat at Chelsea last month by embarking on a four-match unbeaten streak (winning three, drawing one).
By contrast, United have lost each of their last five games, and are only the second side in Premier League history to concede 100 or more goals during a single campaign after Swindon Town in 1993-94.
While the Toffees have lost their final home league match in just one of the last eight seasons (winning six, drawing one), the Blades have lost their final away game in each of their last four Premier League campaigns.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Everton: 54.1%
Sheffield United: 19.3%
Draw: 26.6%
Knicks salute 'warrior' Brunson after inspirational injury return in Pacers win
Jalen Brunson was hailed "a warrior" by team-mate Donte DiVincenzo after his return from injury inspired the New York Knicks to a second-half turnaround against the Indiana Pacers.
The Knicks ran out 130-121 winners in Game 2 at Madison Square Garden to take a 2-0 lead in the Eastern Conference semi-final series.
Things did not look good for the hosts, who also lost OG Anunoby in the third quarter to a hamstring injury, as Brunson was forced to exit during the first quarter with a foot problem.
However, with the Knicks trailing 73-63 at half-time, the point guard received a raucous ovation from the home supporters as he returned to warm up in a bid to shake off his injury.
"He's a warrior," said DiVincenzo, who finished with 28 points. "There was no doubt in my mind he'd be back."
"He's a great leader, and the players all have respect for that when a guy tries to give whatever he has. It says a lot about him," coach Tom Thibodeau added.
"To me, the actions say a lot more than the words. It says that you care a lot about your team and your team-mates."
Brunson's return certainly inspired New York, who were already without Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson and Bojan Bogdanovic due to season-ending injuries.
He notched up 24 of his 29 points during the second half as the Knicks moved halfway towards reaching their first Eastern Conference final since 2000.
"It was really cool," Brunson said of his half-time reception. "But I just knew I had to get my mind in the right place to figure out how I was going to attack in the second half."
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