Eventually, everybody's bill comes due.
That is the lesson the Los Angeles Rams are learning in an extremely hard way in the 2022 season.
The price the Rams are paying, one which has them 3-5 and above only the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West, is one they will be happy to pay in the grand scheme of things given they lifted the Lombardi Trophy last season.
But their struggles this season are a consequence of the ultra-aggressive strategy that has seen the Rams consistently part with draft capital to acquire star players.
Now the stars of their top-heavy roster are failing to elevate those around them, and while many may view this pain as tolerable for 2022, there is reason to be concerned about the viability of this team as a long-term contender.
Even in a less than stellar NFC, it is tough to see this version of the Rams recovering to make a run at the postseason, and right now it is just as difficult to envisage a path through which Los Angeles can return to prominence in the years to come.
Stafford slumping under duress
The root of the Rams' problems is on offense. That is not a revelation to anyone who has even briefly watched Sean McVay's group in 2022. The Los Angeles attack poses nothing close to the same threat it presented last season and is one of the worst in the NFL through eight games.
In Sunday's defeat to a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team who had lost five of their previous six games, the Rams averaged a pitiful 3.7 yards per play. Their season average of 4.71 puts the Rams last in the NFL, while only the Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans have produced fewer explosive plays of 10 yards or more than Los Angeles (86).
Blame could be laid at the feet of Matthew Stafford, the quarterback the Rams gave up a pair of first-round picks to acquire last offseason and who put them over the top in 2021. His well-thrown percentage of 80 is below the league average of 80.6 for quarterbacks with a minimum of 100 attempts, yet it is actually a stark improvement on his first season with the Rams, when he delivered an accurate, well-thrown ball on 73.7 per cent of passes.
The number to focus on with Stafford is his air yards per attempt, which has dropped off substantially from 8.62 in 2021 to 6.35 this season. In other words, Stafford's accuracy is up because the degree of difficulty on throws he is attempting is significantly down, and that is a symptom of dreadful pass protection.
Los Angeles' sack rate allowed of 8.7 per cent is the fourth-worst in the NFL, while the time from Stafford's snap to release has dropped from 2.72 seconds in 2021 to 2.54 this campaign, a reflection of the short passing attack the Rams have adopted to prevent their quarterback taking too much damage and how often he has been hurried into getting the ball out.
In the Week 8 loss against the San Francisco 49ers, Stafford averaged 4.71 air yards per attempt, the lowest of any quarterback to attempt multiple passes, with the Rams' attack reduced to one reliant on the screen pass and the occasional deep shot to Cooper Kupp that had no answer when both those options were taken away.
The Rams' lack of a riposte has been jarring to watch this season, and even Kupp has not been as effective as they would hope.
Counterpunches in short supply
Of course, it would be difficult for Kupp not to endure a drop-off after a 2021 season in which he led the NFL in catches, receiving yards and touchdowns.
But the fall, at least by one measure, has been drastic.
Kupp's burn rate, which measures how often a receiver wins his matchup on a play where he is targeted, is 58.7 per cent, a huge dip from his 2021 rate of 66.5 per cent, which was the ninth-best in the NFL among wideouts with at least 100 targets.
When he does win his coverage matchup, Kupp is at least still consistently creating clear separation. His burn yards per route average of 4.8 is up on his league-leading tally of 4.0 from last season and trails only Tyreek Hill (5.6) for receivers with a minimum of 50 targets.
The problem the Rams have is not necessarily that Kupp is not performing at the level of his 2021 zenith; it is that has no support from his surrounding cast. Down the stretch last year, he had Odell Beckham Jr. to divert coverage away from him. This season, no Rams wideout with at least 10 targets has a burn rate higher than Kupp's, with Allen Robinson (48.8 per cent) among the worst in the league by that measure. At tight end, Tyler Higbee (52.7 per cent) is below the average for his position.
And the lack of non-Kupp difference-makers extends to the run game.
Los Angeles' ground attack largely consists of jet sweeps to Kupp, with carries of any other variety resulting in precious little gain.
The Buccaneers (2.98 yards per carry) are the sole team with a worse rushing average than that of the Rams (3.2), but no offense has a worse ratio of successful runs than that of Los Angeles. McVay's attack has a success rate of just 22.7 per cent on the ground. The team directly above the Rams, the New England Patriots, are a full eight percentage points clear.
The Rams' decision to try to trade running back Cam Akers and then reintegrating him after failing to do so encapsulates their woes on the ground and is emblematic of a season where nothing has gone right for an offense that is fourth-worst in the NFL with an overall success rate of 35.2 per cent.
Any room for optimism comes on the defensive side of the ball.
Time for a Rams reset?
While Stafford and, to a lesser extent, Kupp may be in the midst of down years, the cornerstones the Rams possess on defense are still performing at an extremely high level.
The Los Angeles defense had the Rams in position to get back to winning ways in Tampa, holding the Bucs to six points going into the final quarter, and remains one of the better units in the NFL on that side of the ball.
Allowing 5.29 yards per play, the Rams rank 10th in the NFL by that metric, with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey both continuing to excel.
Donald headed into Week 9 having won 37 of his 50 pass rushes, good for an incredible stunt-adjusted win rate of 73.66 per cent, and his frequent interior pressure forced Tom Brady to get the ball out at an average of 2.21 seconds from snap to release. Only Zach Wilson (2.04) was quicker among QBs with 20 attempts in Week 9.
Ramsey, meanwhile, went into the Bucs game with a combined open percentage allowed across man and zone of 27.66 per cent (the average for cornerbacks is 34 per cent).
But the Rams' defense has a similar issue to that of the offense. Save for emerging linebacker Ernest Jones, this group is short of young impact players who can develop around Donald and Ramsey.
And on the final Tampa Bay drive of the Buccaneers' 16-13 win, a defense that had seen the offense inexplicably give the ball back after running the ball three times and using under a minute of clock with the chance to kill the game with a first down proved powerless to stop Brady authoring another game-winning series.
Brady's decisiveness and quick release rendered Donald a non-factor, and Ramsey found himself similarly helpless and picked on as the Bucs successfully attacked the Rams' soft zone coverage on a drive capped by tight end Cade Otton's decisive score.
Asked if he thought the defense would be back on the field after the Rams stopped the Bucs in the red zone on Tampa's penultimate drive, Ramsey replied: "We should not have been."
Those five words spoke volumes as to what Ramsey thinks of the offense, but the cold hard truth is that – even though the defense is the superior unit – the Rams in their current guise are not doing anything well enough to escape avoidable situations.
And their avenues to get better are not obvious. Their offensive fortunes could be improved by a greater reliance on play-action, which the Rams are utilising just 10.4 per cent of the time (the average is 12.5 per cent) but racking up 11.52 yards per play when they do.
That is unlikely to be a cure-all, though, and any reticence on Stafford's part to turn his back to the defense for a play-fake while playing behind this offensive line would be understandable.
The resources with which they could boost the O-line, their collection of playmakers or the defense in the coming offseason are thin. The Rams have a second and third-round pick this year and four selections across the final two rounds, but asking the front office to unearth instant impact players from those non-premium picks is a tall order for a franchise that has racked up its share of misses with the draft selections it has held on to in recent years.
Projected to be $2million over the cap in 2023, don't expect a free agency splurge from the Rams either.
Given the retirement rumours that have previously swirled around Donald and McVay, this is a situation that would be ripe for a rebuild, were the Rams not locked into Stafford's contract until 2026. Instead, if they cannot produce a second-half surge, it is likely to be more of an attempt at a reset that quickly gets the Rams back in contention.
With the paucity of tools they have to attack that challenge, successfully doing so would be as impressive as the comebacks this star-studded team produced to lift the Lombardi back in February.
Tottenham 2-3 Arsenal: Gunners hold off late fightback to boost title hopes
Arsenal survived a late scare to move four points clear at the Premier League summit following a 3-2 win at rivals Tottenham in Sunday's north London derby.
The Gunners cruised into a 3-0 half-time lead thanks to an own goal from Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg along with Bukayo Saka's strike and Kai Havertz's header.
Yet a second-half collapse looked to be on the cards when Cristian Romero punished David Raya’s error before Son Heung-min pulled another back from the spot. However, the Gunners ultimately held on.
Arsenal, at least temporarily, tightened their grip on top spot ahead of second-placed Manchester City, who play the first of their two games in hand against Nottingham Forest later on Sunday, while Tottenham remain seven points off the top four in fifth.
The Gunners broke through after 15 minutes when Hojbjerg inadvertently nodded Saka’s inswinging corner beyond Guglielmo Vicario at his near post.
Spurs responded, and after Romero headed against the post, Micky van de Ven thought he had levelled when he slotted home from close range. However, the decision to award the goal was overturned following a VAR review with the defender adjudged to be offside.
Arsenal doubled their lead in the 27th minute following a swift counter that saw Havertz pick out Saka, who cut inside before slotting past Vicario.
Havertz then got in on the act before half-time, heading home Declan Rice’s corner from inside the six-yard box.
Yet an error by Raya gifted Spurs a lifeline after the break, when Romero pounced on the goalkeeper’s poor clearance to reduce the hosts’ arrears.
Matters were made more fraught for the Gunners late on, when a VAR check confirmed a penalty should be awarded to Spurs for Rice’s foul on Ben Davies.
Son lashed a brilliant spot-kick into the left-hand corner, yet a late Spurs onslaught ultimately came to nothing, as the Gunners secured another big win.
Saka shines in the derby limelight
The destiny of the Premier League title may be in Man City’s hands, but Arsenal are still very much in the hunt after a second London derby victory this week.
Mikel Arteta’s side, who thumped Chelsea 5-0 on Tuesday, have bounced back brilliantly from their defeat to Aston Villa two weeks ago, scoring 10 goals in three games while conceding just twice.
After his corner led to the opening goal, Saka doubled the lead with his 15th league strike of this term – his most in a single season – while he became the first English player to score home and away for Arsenal against Tottenham in a single campaign since Ian Wright 30 years ago (1993-94).
The damage was effectively done when Havertz headed in the Gunners’ 16th goal from a corner this season, the most in a single campaign since West Bromwich Albion in 2016-17 (also 16), though Arteta will have been concerned by their near slip at the end.
Spurs' struggles on home soil continue
The 195th north London derby culminated in Tottenham losing successive home league games against Arsenal for the first time since 1988.
Despite their best efforts in the second half, it was always going to be difficult to turn things around against the side that has now won all 16 matches when leading at half-time this season.
Now without a win in four meetings against their rivals, they have also tasted success just once in five home outings against the Gunners.
With their own title hopes undented by their rivals, Arsenal will hope Tottenham can instead harm City’s chances when they host them on May 14.
After early flurry, quarterbacks finally come off board late in NFL draft
After a run of quarterbacks were selected early in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, it took quite a while for any other signal-callers to come off the board.
That 137-pick drought ended in the fifth round on Saturday when the New Orleans Saints took South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler with the 150th overall pick.
The New York Jets took Jordan Travis from Florida State 21 picks later and the New England Patriots used the 193rd selection on Tennessee QB Joe Milton III.
The final two quarterbacks drafted were Kentucky’s Devin Leary by the Baltimore Ravens with the 218th overall pick and the Green Bay Packers took Michael Pratt of Tulane, 245th.
This was just the third time in the common draft era that a quarterback wasn’t selected in the second or third rounds.
While some of the quarterbacks taken in the first round could very well find themselves starting in the NFL next season, it’s highly unlikely that any of the ones taken in the fifth round or later will be starting anytime soon.
Rattler could compete for the backup spot to starter David Carr now that Jameis Winston has departed from that role. His main competition figures to be Jake Haener, the Saints’ fourth-round selection in the 2023 draft, or Kellen Mond.
The backup role won’t be an option for Milton III in New England, barring injury. The Patriots signed veteran Jacoby Brissett to be their starter, or at least compete for that job with third overall pick Drake Maye.
Milton could be a No. 3 option if the team decides to move on from Bailey Zappe, who hasn’t impressed in 14 NFL games the past two seasons with 11 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
Travis is in a similar situation with the Jets, behind starter Aaron Rodgers and veteran backup Tyrod Taylor.
Travis is a long-term project, who, like Rodgers, is attempting to return from a major injury – a gruesome broken ankle last November.
Leary could figure in a backup role with the Ravens soon if not this season. Josh Johnson was signed for that spot, but he is 37 and the strong-armed Leary, an older prospect at 25, could serve as backup as soon as 2025.
Pratt has started 44 games at Tulane over the last four years, so he brings plenty of experience to Green Bay. He could compete with 2023 draft pick Sean Clifford to back up Jordan Love.
West Ham 2-2 Liverpool: Antonio header damages Reds' dwindling title chances
Liverpool suffered another blow to their dwindling Premier League title hopes as Michail Antonio's late header snatched a 2-2 draw for West Ham at London Stadium.
Jurgen Klopp's side disappointed in Wednesday's 2-0 defeat against Everton, with Jarrod Bowen's goal and assist inflicting further pain for the Reds on Saturday.
Liverpool responded well to Bowen's first-half opener, edging ahead through Alphonse Areola's own goal after Andy Robertson's 48th-minute leveller, only for Bowen to tee up Antonio's headed equaliser 13 minutes from time.
This draw left Liverpool two points behind leaders Arsenal ahead of the Gunners’ Sunday meeting with Tottenham and one behind Manchester City – who have two games in hand on the Reds – while West Ham remain eighth.
A tepid opening befitted two sides struggling for form as both failed to carve out any gilt-edged opportunities.
Liverpool wanted a 27th-minute penalty for Angelo Ogbonna's tackle on Cody Gakpo and, though an offside call against Luis Diaz silenced those appeals, that passage livened the game up.
Harvey Elliott's curling attempt was held by Areola after Vladimir Coufal went close at the other end, before Diaz blasted a low strike against the West Ham goalkeeper's right-hand post.
Bowen saw a deflected drive parried behind by Alisson but the West Ham forward headed Mohammed Kudus' left-wing delivery into the far corner from the resulting set-piece two minutes before the break.
Ryan Gravenberch flashed a powerful half-volley over immediately after the interval – and West Ham did not heed that warning sign.
Diaz cut inside from the left to find Robertson before a slight deflection off Lucas Paqueta saw Areola caught off-guard as the left-back found the bottom-left corner via the post.
Gravenberch arrowed narrowly wide before one-way traffic finally paid dividends midway through the second half when Gakpo's miscued strike from Trent Alexander-Arnold's corner forced Areola to turn into his own net after a deflection off Tomas Soucek.
Alisson kept his side ahead with a remarkable stretching stop to thwart Emerson's volley, yet the Liverpool goalkeeper was powerless when Antonio headed into the top-right corner from Bowen's right-wing centre.
Elliott almost snatched all three points in the 89th minute but his dipping effort found the top of the crossbar rather than the right-hand corner from long range.
Reds falter once again
Under Klopp, Liverpool have only won more Premier League games against Crystal Palace (13) than West Ham (12).
Yet the visiting Reds faltered once more as what appeared to be a promising season continues to unravel in disappointing fashion for Klopp's final campaign.
Having threatened an unlikely quadruple at the start of March, Liverpool now require a minor miracle – and slip-ups from Man City and Arsenal – to muster a slight shot at the title.
Bowen on target but West Ham struggle at home
Bowen had already found the net in the Premier League and EFL Cup against Liverpool this season and became just the second West Ham player to score in three different games with the Reds in a single campaign – after Geoff Hurst in 1964-65.
His well-taken headed opener eased the nervous home crowd, yet this draw left West Ham with just one win from their last nine Premier League home games.
That concerning home form may be what costs David Moyes’ side a higher finish. The Hammers trail seventh-placed Newcastle United by a point, despite the Magpies playing two games fewer.
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