NFL

NFL Talking Point: Why can't the Packers stop the run?

By Sports Desk October 08, 2022

The Green Bay Packers have been one of the most consistent teams in the NFL under the leadership of Matt LaFleur.

As a head coach, LaFleur has compiled a 42-11 regular-season record, winning three NFC North titles and guiding the Packers to the NFC Championship Game in two of his three campaigns in charges.

Yet the failure that has contributed to their inability to get to the Super Bowl during LaFleur's tenure has also been consistent.

In the NFC Championship Game at the end of the 2019 season, the Packers were gashed on the ground by Raheem Mostert and the San Francisco 49ers in a 37-20 blowout.

Mostert racked up 220 rushing yards and four touchdowns in a remarkable display, and a year later as the Packers hosted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lambeau Field at the same stage, they suffered a similar if less statistically dramatic downfall.

Leonard Fournette only had 55 yards rushing in the Buccaneers' 31-26 win, but he had a 20-yard score in the second quarter that gave Tampa Bay a lead they never relinquished, and he averaged four yards after contact, again illustrating the Packers' struggles to stop the run.

The offense and special teams were more at fault last season as the 49ers beat the Packers at Lambeau in the Divisional Round, but a nine-yard run from Deebo Samuel gave the Niners a key third-down conversion on their game-winning drive.

When the Packers have needed to stop the run in critical games, they have come up short, and the signs of that problem being fixed in 2022 are not good.

The Packers are allowing at least four yards on 57.8 per cent of carries by their opponents, the highest rate in the NFL, and giving up 4.91 yards per rush on first down. Green Bay's rush average allowed of 4.97 yards per carry is the 11th-worst in the NFL.

Three of the Packers' first four games have seen them surrender over 100 yards rushing, conceding 167 in allowing a poor New England Patriots team to take them to overtime.

Green Bay's issue is not getting into the backfield, as the Packers rank eighth in run disruption rate, according to Stats Perform data.

So why are the Packers still having issues stopping the run? The short answer is tackling.

Their tackle success rate of 73.6 per cent is tied for the fifth-worst in the NFL, with their problems coming chiefly on the left side of their defense. Left inside linebacker De'Vondre Campbell has missed four tackles and seen a further two broken, while edge rusher Preston Smith – listed as the starting outside backer on the left side – has also had a pair of tackles broken.

It is certainly not fair to pin all the Packers' run defense struggles on Campbell, but it is clear they are not doing enough as a collective to bring ball-carriers down if they evade the disruption Green Bay creates in the backfield.

This week the Packers face the New York Giants in London and meet a running back in Saquon Barkley who is doing an excellent job of racking up yardage on plays where the defense generates a run disruption.

Indeed, Barkley, the NFL's rushing leader through four weeks, is averaging 3.54 yards per carry when faced with a run disruption, above the average of 3.02.

However, his yards after contact per attempt average of 1.96 yards is below the average of 2.01. So while he might be able to evade defenders who get behind the line of scrimmage, tackle-breaking runs from the 2018 second overall pick should be at a premium.

In that sense, he is something of a test case for the Packers. Green Bay has poured plenty of resources into the problems stopping the run but, if Barkley enjoys significant success fighting through contact at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, it could be a sign that run defense and, more specifically, tackling is an issue that could doom a Super Bowl-ready team once more and require more targeted attention next offseason.

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