In fantasy football, it’s often the ones you least suspect.
Every week, there are surprise stars who seemingly come out of nowhere to deliver performances that prove decisive in fantasy matchups.
Unexpected contributors are the theme of this week’s fantasy picks.
The players mentioned are not unknowns, but they either have matchups that would not be expected to deliver fantasy success or feature for teams that have surprisingly become relevant in both the NFL and fantasy worlds.
As usual, Stats Perform has backed up its selections of four offensive players and a defense with advanced data that supports their case for inclusion in fantasy lineups this week.
Quarterback: Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans @ Washington Commanders
Tannehill is approaching the end of his time as the Titans' starter, but he still holds value for a Tennessee team looking to recover from a slow start to win a bad AFC South and for fantasy players eyeing a matchup to exploit this week.
That matchup comes in the form of a Commanders defense that has allowed over seven yards per pass and has given up 10 passing touchdowns, tied for the most in the NFL.
With Tannehill delivering an accurate, well-thrown ball on 87.6 per cent of his pass attempts – the third-best ratio among quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts – he is in a strong position to see his consistent accuracy rewarded on Sunday despite the relative lack of playmaking talent around him.
Running Back: Saquon Barkley, New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers
Most in the NFL world will be anticipating the Giants to come back down to earth against the Packers in the second London game of the season.
While the Packers are heavy favourites to slow New York’s fast start to the season, the odds of them halting Barkley's renaissance look slim.
No player in the NFL is averaging more yards per game than Barkley's 115.8, while a Packers defense that has traditionally struggled against the run is surrendering 4.97 yards per rush, the 11th-most in the league.
Hopes of progress for the Packers on run defense have yet to be realised, and Barkley should take advantage of their fallibility on the ground.
Wide Receiver: George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills
This is less about the matchup, which is an awful one for Pittsburgh, and more about opportunity for rookie receiver Pickens, who figures to be one of Kenny Pickett's favourite targets as the rookie quarterback makes his first career start.
Over the last two weeks, Pickens has been targeted 15 times, and he enjoyed the best game of his young career so far against the New York Jets, catching six of his eight targets 102 yards in a game Pickett entered for the second half.
The Buffalo defense is substantially better than that of the Jets, allowing only 4.75 yards per pass play. Yet the Bills are still dealing with injuries in the secondary and Pickens, whose big-play rate of 38.6 per cent is 10th among receivers with at least 20 targets, has the all-round game to turn the attention he will get from Pickett into production regardless of the difficult matchup.
Tight End: Tyler Conklin, New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins
There's such a lack of depth at tight end for fantasy football purposes that it's necessary to take a few swings if you're stuck for an answer at the position.
Conklin represents such a swing but is one you can have more confidence in after his impressive Week 4.
He demonstrated chemistry with Zach Wilson on the quarterback's return from a knee injury, hauling in three catches for 52 yards in the Jets' surprise win over the Steelers. Conklin was targeted five times and registered a burn, which is when a receiver wins his matchup with a defender when targeted, on all five.
This week, the Jets face a Miami defense that has conceded 7.43 yards per pass play this season. Only the Seattle Seahawks (8.24) have fared worse by that measure. If Wilson and Conklin continue to build their rapport, the latter could prove an astute fantasy play by those managers who take a chance on him.
Defense/Special Teams: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans
The Jaguars being competitive with the unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles a week after stunning the Los Angeles Chargers illustrated just how far they have come in so little time under Doug Pederson.
Very few thought the Jags would quickly be in the mix for the AFC South but that is where they stand, with a diverse and aggressive defense playing a huge role in Jacksonville's progress.
The Jags have forced 27 negative plays this season, tied for the eighth-most among NFL defenses. The winless Texans, meanwhile, have seen their offense suffer 26 negative plays for minus 121 yards. Only four teams have lost more yardage on those plays this season.
Tied third in the NFL for takeaways with nine, look for a defense nobody saw coming to make the most of a favourable matchup and get Jacksonville back on track.
Packers, QB Love agree to 4-year, $220 million contract
Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers have agreed to a four-year extension worth $220 million, tying him as the highest-paid quarterback in NFL history, according to multiple sources.
Love, who has only had one full season as an NFL starter, will earn $55 million annually with $155 million guaranteed and a $75 million signing bonus, also the largest in league history.
His yearly salary ties him with Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow and Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence for highest in NFL history.
After finally trading Aaron Rodgers in April 2023, Love, 25, became the Packers’ undisputed starter. He struggled through the first seven games last season and Green Bay was 2-5 but he took off and the Packers finished 9-8 and earned a wild card spot.
In the Packers’ final eight games of the regular season, Love had 16 touchdowns and one interception. In a 48-32 playoff win over the Dallas Cowboys, he had a near-perfect 157.2 passer rating with 16 of 21 completions for 272 yards, three touchdowns and no picks.
Love completed 372 of 579 passes (64.2 percent) for 4,159 yards last season with 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
His 32 TD passes ranked second in the NFL behind Dallas’ Dak Prescott (36).
All that production came while Love was throwing to the most productive, young group of receivers since at least 1970. The Packers’ 302 receptions, 3,642 receiving yards and 31 receiving touchdowns are the most by a team’s group of first-or second-year pass catchers since the AFL/NFL merger.
Green Bay also became the youngest team in that same span to win a playoff game with an average age of 25 years and 214 days.
Dolphins extend Tua Tagovailoa on 4-year, $212M deal
The Miami Dolphins and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa have agreed to a four-year, $212.4million contract extension, multiple media outlets reported Friday.
The contract, which is the largest in franchise history, reportedly includes $167million in guarantees, which ranks eighth among NFL quarterbacks.
With a long-term deal in place, Tagovailoa can focus on preparing for the upcoming season. He had been a minimal participant in Miami’s initial training camp sessions.
Drafted fifth overall out of Alabama, Tagovailoa has had a passer rating over 100 in each of the last two seasons and answered durability concerns by starting all 17 games last year.
While some pundits had been hesitant to endorse a large extension for Tagovailoa, but Dolphins general manager Chris Grier was determined to keep the left-hander in Miami.
"We're strong believers in him. And you guys all feel [coach Mike McDaniel's] passion about him when he talks about him," Grier said in February.
"Just in the two years of what he's done, he's grown in areas to where he led the league in passing and did some great things this year. And we all feel there's still another level he can take it.
"The way he's attacked this and wants to be great, and the combination of Mike and working with that and that trust and belief in each other, we do think there's still another level which he could go."
Tagovailoa completed 69.3 percent of his passes last season for 4,624 yards, 29 touchdowns and 14 interceptions while leading the Dolphins to an 11-6 record. The Dolphins’ play-off appearance was brief, ending in a 26-7 loss in frigid Kansas City in the wild-card round.
Since McDaniel took over as head coach, Tagovailoa ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards (8,172), fifth in passing touchdowns (54) and second in passer rating (102.9).
Sesko opts for Leipzig stay over Arsenal, Man Utd move due to progress opportunities
Benjamin Sesko remains certain that staying at RB Leipzig is the "right decision" to develop his career after turning down reported Premier League interest.
Slovenia international Sesko joined Leipzig from RB Salzburg in 2023, scoring 14 league goals last campaign, a tally bettered by only seven players in the German top flight.
That form was said to have attracted Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea to the 21-year-old, who instead signed a new five-year contract with the Bundesliga club last month.
Having committed his future to life at the Red Bull Arena, the striker believes Leipzig will provide a platform for his progression.
"I thought it through very well," Sesko said to Nogomania, a Slovenian media outlet. "I believe I made the right decision. I wanted to gain more experience, learn more, and not rush things.
"Leipzig are an excellent club that can provide what I need for the next step. Leipzig's vision is clear; everything is geared towards growth, progress, and high goals. I felt it was right to decide this way."
Sesko's new deal could see him stay with Leipzig until 2029, with Marco Rose boasting one of the world's most exciting prospects up top.
The Leipzig attacker scored from 14 of his 47 shots last season in the league, a conversion rate of 29.8% – the third-best ratio in the 2023-24 Bundesliga among players to have managed at least five goals.
That deadly finishing in front of goal will have Rose excited once more, and Sesko says his boss was key to the decision to stay.
"We talked," Sesko explained. "He told me he wanted me to stay but also said I should decide based on my feelings.
"He said if I felt I needed to move on, I should go, but if not, I should stay. He's an excellent coach who has led many great players.
"I'm glad I decided this way. I did it before the Euro to keep a clear head and focus entirely on the championship."
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