It seemed on a frenzied January night in Kansas City as though the AFC title would be decided by the toss of a coin.
The Kansas City Chiefs were the beneficiaries, coming up the field one last time to beat the Buffalo Bills, but Patrick Mahomes and Co. were not to make the Super Bowl.
That the Chiefs were stunned by the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game said a great deal for the strength in depth of the conference.
And that has been ratcheted up to another level over the course of the offseason, with Russell Wilson and Davante Adams among the notable names traded into the AFC.
The NFC may still have the defending Super Bowl champions, but there are no shortage of contenders here – including as many as four in one wild division out west.
The favourites
The Chiefs and the Bills would both have been hugely disheartened by the manner in which their seasons ended. Kansas City had the fortune that deserted Buffalo but were unable to make the most of their reprieve against the Bengals.
But that will merely make Mahomes and Josh Allen two of the more motivated superstars heading into the new season.
Mahomes is now without Tyreek Hill, yet the Chiefs' offensive line went from strength to strength as last season wore on, ranking third in pass protection win percentage by the year's end.
Meanwhile, Allen showed in that playoff blockbuster he can be every bit a match for Mahomes at his best. He threw nine touchdown passes across his two playoff games; no player had previously thrown more than seven while playing two games or fewer in a single postseason.
Allen will hope not to get the chance to better that record, this year targeting a run that goes far beyond the Divisional Round.
In the mix
The Bengals of course have to be considered after pushing the Los Angeles Rams all the way, while the Tennessee Titans actually matched the Chiefs for the best regular season record in the AFC despite Derrick Henry being limited to eight games, though the trade of receiver A.J. Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles may restrict their ceiling on offense and ability to compete this year.
Deshaun Watson's suspension will give the Cleveland Browns work to do just to make the playoffs, but they may well be a serious threat if they get there.
A conference packed with quarterback talent also includes former MVP Lamar Jackson, who is fit again and looking to set the Baltimore Ravens back on course after a difficult 2021 in which they finished bottom of the AFC North.
But if the Chiefs are the team to beat, perhaps one of their division rivals can cause an upset. Each of the Los Angeles Chargers, the Denver Broncos and the Las Vegas Raiders have reasons to be optimistic.
Four contenders in the wild, wild AFC West
The Chiefs have won the AFC West six years in a row, but there is no guarantee that will become seven. The scale of the challenge before Kansas City represents a big boost to their AFC rivals – and to the neutrals, licking their lips at a must-watch season-long tussle.
Justin Herbert has long looked like making the Chargers contenders, with just the 14th 5,000-yard passing season in league history helping his offense finish fourth in the league in yards per game (390.2) and fifth in total points scored (747) last season. Crucially, the Chargers have added defensive help in the form of Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson now, too.
Yet their offseason work perhaps pales next to that of the Broncos and the Raiders.
Wilson left the Seattle Seahawks for Denver, who promptly handed him a huge contract, clearly feeling he and Nathaniel Hackett can be the QB-coach combo they have been missing to return them to the postseason.
Support for that belief comes from Wilson's performance in quarterback Efficiency Versus Expected (EVE), which measures a signal-caller's performance in expected passing situations against the league average. Despite playing only 14 games on a Seahawks team that finished in the NFC West cellar, Wilson was still 13th in EVE, just behind Tom Brady.
Meanwhile, Adams has reunited with former Fresno State team-mate Derek Carr on the Raiders, with Stats Perform's positional rankings subsequently considering Las Vegas to have the most talented skill players in the NFL.
The Chiefs will undoubtedly now be made to work for the division after years of dominance.
Lamar out to right last year's wrongs
With half of the conference potentially in contention for a Super Bowl run, there is perhaps no true sleeper pick, but the Ravens will expect to go from worst to first in their division.
Much will depend on a return to form for dual-threat superstar Jackson.
Baltimore were firmly on course for the playoffs at the time of the ankle injury that kept Jackson out of the run-in in 2021, collapsing thereafter. However, it had already been by far the QB's worst season as a regular starter.
After 3,127 passing yards and 36 passing TDs and 1,206 rushing yards and seven rushing TDs in his MVP season of 2019, Jackson had regressed slightly in 2020 and struggled further last year both through the air and on the ground.
In 12 games, Jackson threw just 16 TDs to 13 interceptions, while his 767 rushing yards saw him finish second among QBs to Jalen Hurts – a category he had dominated in the previous two campaigns.
Everything the Ravens do when they are good goes through Jackson, so his performance level will make or break their season.
Can Tua turn his fortunes around?
With the wealth of talent at the top of the AFC, there must also be some dregs at the bottom. The Miami Dolphins might fear they belong instead to that category.
The Dolphins made their own big move this offseason, taking elite receiver Hill out of the AFC West to give Tua Tagovailoa little excuse in his third season.
Hill got open on 82.7 per cent of his targets last season, with those skills of separation sure to come in useful when attempting to link up with a passer in Tagovailoa who threw to an open target just 73.8 per cent of the time.
The Dolphins are not expecting Tagovailoa to be Mahomes, but they need him to be much better than he has been thus far for this project to work.
After early flurry, quarterbacks finally come off board late in NFL draft
After a run of quarterbacks were selected early in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, it took quite a while for any other signal-callers to come off the board.
That 137-pick drought ended in the fifth round on Saturday when the New Orleans Saints took South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler with the 150th overall pick.
The New York Jets took Jordan Travis from Florida State 21 picks later and the New England Patriots used the 193rd selection on Tennessee QB Joe Milton III.
The final two quarterbacks drafted were Kentucky’s Devin Leary by the Baltimore Ravens with the 218th overall pick and the Green Bay Packers took Michael Pratt of Tulane, 245th.
This was just the third time in the common draft era that a quarterback wasn’t selected in the second or third rounds.
While some of the quarterbacks taken in the first round could very well find themselves starting in the NFL next season, it’s highly unlikely that any of the ones taken in the fifth round or later will be starting anytime soon.
Rattler could compete for the backup spot to starter David Carr now that Jameis Winston has departed from that role. His main competition figures to be Jake Haener, the Saints’ fourth-round selection in the 2023 draft, or Kellen Mond.
The backup role won’t be an option for Milton III in New England, barring injury. The Patriots signed veteran Jacoby Brissett to be their starter, or at least compete for that job with third overall pick Drake Maye.
Milton could be a No. 3 option if the team decides to move on from Bailey Zappe, who hasn’t impressed in 14 NFL games the past two seasons with 11 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
Travis is in a similar situation with the Jets, behind starter Aaron Rodgers and veteran backup Tyrod Taylor.
Travis is a long-term project, who, like Rodgers, is attempting to return from a major injury – a gruesome broken ankle last November.
Leary could figure in a backup role with the Ravens soon if not this season. Josh Johnson was signed for that spot, but he is 37 and the strong-armed Leary, an older prospect at 25, could serve as backup as soon as 2025.
Pratt has started 44 games at Tulane over the last four years, so he brings plenty of experience to Green Bay. He could compete with 2023 draft pick Sean Clifford to back up Jordan Love.
West Ham 2-2 Liverpool: Antonio header damages Reds' dwindling title chances
Liverpool suffered another blow to their dwindling Premier League title hopes as Michail Antonio's late header snatched a 2-2 draw for West Ham at London Stadium.
Jurgen Klopp's side disappointed in Wednesday's 2-0 defeat against Everton, with Jarrod Bowen's goal and assist inflicting further pain for the Reds on Saturday.
Liverpool responded well to Bowen's first-half opener, edging ahead through Alphonse Areola's own goal after Andy Robertson's 48th-minute leveller, only for Bowen to tee up Antonio's headed equaliser 13 minutes from time.
This draw left Liverpool two points behind leaders Arsenal ahead of the Gunners’ Sunday meeting with Tottenham and one behind Manchester City – who have two games in hand on the Reds – while West Ham remain eighth.
A tepid opening befitted two sides struggling for form as both failed to carve out any gilt-edged opportunities.
Liverpool wanted a 27th-minute penalty for Angelo Ogbonna's tackle on Cody Gakpo and, though an offside call against Luis Diaz silenced those appeals, that passage livened the game up.
Harvey Elliott's curling attempt was held by Areola after Vladimir Coufal went close at the other end, before Diaz blasted a low strike against the West Ham goalkeeper's right-hand post.
Bowen saw a deflected drive parried behind by Alisson but the West Ham forward headed Mohammed Kudus' left-wing delivery into the far corner from the resulting set-piece two minutes before the break.
Ryan Gravenberch flashed a powerful half-volley over immediately after the interval – and West Ham did not heed that warning sign.
Diaz cut inside from the left to find Robertson before a slight deflection off Lucas Paqueta saw Areola caught off-guard as the left-back found the bottom-left corner via the post.
Gravenberch arrowed narrowly wide before one-way traffic finally paid dividends midway through the second half when Gakpo's miscued strike from Trent Alexander-Arnold's corner forced Areola to turn into his own net after a deflection off Tomas Soucek.
Alisson kept his side ahead with a remarkable stretching stop to thwart Emerson's volley, yet the Liverpool goalkeeper was powerless when Antonio headed into the top-right corner from Bowen's right-wing centre.
Elliott almost snatched all three points in the 89th minute but his dipping effort found the top of the crossbar rather than the right-hand corner from long range.
Reds falter once again
Under Klopp, Liverpool have only won more Premier League games against Crystal Palace (13) than West Ham (12).
Yet the visiting Reds faltered once more as what appeared to be a promising season continues to unravel in disappointing fashion for Klopp's final campaign.
Having threatened an unlikely quadruple at the start of March, Liverpool now require a minor miracle – and slip-ups from Man City and Arsenal – to muster a slight shot at the title.
Bowen on target but West Ham struggle at home
Bowen had already found the net in the Premier League and EFL Cup against Liverpool this season and became just the second West Ham player to score in three different games with the Reds in a single campaign – after Geoff Hurst in 1964-65.
His well-taken headed opener eased the nervous home crowd, yet this draw left West Ham with just one win from their last nine Premier League home games.
That concerning home form may be what costs David Moyes’ side a higher finish. The Hammers trail seventh-placed Newcastle United by a point, despite the Magpies playing two games fewer.
Swiatek soars into Madrid Open last 16 after dropping just two games against Cirstea
Iga Swiatek stormed through to the Madrid Open last 16 following a dominant straight-sets victory over Sorana Cirstea.
The world number one dropped just two games as she inflicted a comprehensive 6-1 6-1 rout on her Romanian opponent in the Spanish capital.
Swiatek, who was runner-up to Aryna Sabalenka in last year's event, will play Sara Sorribes Tormo in the round of 16 after the Spaniard defeated two-time Australian Open champion Victoria Azarenka.
The Pole is now 26-4 for the season, in which she has already triumphed at the Qatar Open and Indian Wells Open, as she eyes the ninth WTA 1000 singles title of her career.
Data debrief
Swiatek is through to her sixth round of 16 from seven main-draw appearances in WTA 1000 events on clay (85.7 per cent) - the highest percentage rate among players with at least five such appearances since the format's introduction in 2009.
The three-time French Open champion also boasts the best WTA match win rate of any player since 2000 on clay (87 per cent). Overall, only Chris Evert (94.5 per cent), Margaret Court (89.5 per cent) and Steffi Graf (89.2 per cent) boast a higher percentage in the Open Era.
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