The new NFL season is right around the corner and, amid the battle for the playoffs and eventual success in the Super Bowl, there's also the fight that nobody wants to admit they may like the idea of.
The team with the worst record in the NFL in the 2022 season will secure the first pick of the 2023 NFL Draft – theoretically allowing the worst teams to pick the best players, continuing a cycle of maintaining competitiveness across the league.
For the past two seasons, that opportunity has fallen to the Jaguars but, while 2022 may not be a fully enjoyable season in Jacksonville, there is at least hope that they can rise off the bottom after two seasons with a combined record of 4-29.
So, if not the Jaguars, then who? Stats Perform has crunched the numbers and given an assessment of four teams who could be in the hunt for the number one pick.
Houston Texans
There are few teams who head into 2022 with such a bleak picture across the entire team and Davis Mills, the quarterback tasked with helming the offense, has weak wide receiver options and an offensive line unable to provide him with much safety.
Last season, Houston were ranked dead last for the total number of first downs (266), and red-zone drives (37), as well as holding the worst yards-per-game average at 278.1 and the highest percentage of three-and-out drives (28.2)
Their first down efficiency, the percentage of first downs picking up four or more yards, was 42.9 per cent, again the worst across the league.
Defensively, things were not much better. When it came to stopping big plays where opponents gained 10 or more yards, the Texans were bottom of the class with 257 given up and allowed the most successful plays in the red zone with 55.9 per cent.
The Texans' opponents averaged 384.4 yards per game in 2021, which was the second-worst tally in the NFL - and Houston also ranked 31st for the average margin of defeat (17.15 pts).
Atlanta Falcons
Having traded away the greatest quarterback in their franchise history in Matt Ryan, the Falcons head into unchartered territory in 2022, but the signs are far from promising.
Marcus Mariota, entering his seventh year in the NFL, has been named as the Falcons' starting quarterback for the forthcoming season ahead of rookie Desmond Ridder, but has enjoyed limited playing time in recent years.
Getting up to speed with the offense will be even harder without Calvin Ridley, handed an indefinite suspension for betting during the 2021 season, though tight end Kyle Pitts and rookie receiver Drake London offer him two physically imposing targets.
Atlanta have also had problems retaining the ball, with the Falcons recording 30 fumbles last season, the most in the NFL - conceding possession on 11 occasions.
Things are worse on defense. In the 2021 season, the Falcons gave up an average of 364.4 yards per game and conceded an average of 27 points per game - the third-worst mark in the NFL behind only the New York Jets (29.6) and the Detroit Lions (27.5). Atlanta's is a talent-poor roster that looks primed to put them in contention for the first pick and a potential shot at a franchise quarterback.
New York Jets
The Jets' situation looks bleak before even diving into the stats, with the franchise 0-6 against division opponents in 2021 and having an overall record of 4-13 last season – only the Jaguars and the Lions held a worse return.
Positive moves were made in the 2022 NFL Draft, New York landing cornerback Ahmad 'Sauce' Gardner, wide receiver Garrett Wilson and defensive end Jermaine Johnson in the first round – but getting immediate contributions from all three may be asking too much.
The Jets were comfortably the worst defensive team in the NFL last season, conceding an average of 397.6 yards per game, the highest in the NFL, and 29.6 points per game totalling 504 overall – the most by some distance ahead of the porous Lions (467).
Vulnerabilities were present across the field, with the Jets giving up an average of 138.3 rushing yards per game in 2021, the fourth-highest in the league, and 259.4 receiving yards per game, the third-highest total.
The Jets will be desperate to improve a turnover differential of minus 13. Doing so will be contingent on 2021 second overall pick recovering from his preseason knee injury and staying healthy and avoiding the poor decisions that were prevalent in his rookie year. He threw 11 of the Jets' 20 interceptions last season.
If Wilson fails to make those strides, the Jets could be debating whether to replace him with one of 2023's top quarterback prospects with the number one pick.
Seattle Seahawks
Losing Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos is a hit likely to send the Seahawks to the NFC cellar, as their 2012 third-round pick was responsible for moments of magic that kept Seattle's head above water in recent years.
The strength of Pete Carroll's defense had defined his reign in Seattle, but the Seahawks have gradually declined to become one of the league's worst teams on that side of the ball. Seattle conceded an average of 379.1 yards per game in 2021 – the fifth-most in the league.
Seattle have particularly struggled defending the pass, giving up 265.5 yards per game through the air in 2021 – putting them behind only the Baltimore Ravens.
Neither of Wilson's replacements have previously shown any indication of elevating an offense to a level to mitigate the defensive struggles as the franchise legend did so often during his storied spell in Seattle.
Indeed, neither Drew Lock nor Geno Smith can be considered capable of filling the void left by the nine-time Pro Bowl QB.
Lock's interception percentage of 2.8 since entering the NFL in 2019 is the ninth-worst in the league in that time. Both Lock (6.54) and Smith (5.88) were among the five worst quarterbacks (min. 50 attempts) by pickable pass percentage last season.
Simply put, the Seahawks do not possess the quarterback play to allow for the defense to be as bad as it is. It's a transition year in Seattle, and the Seahawks could soon be transitioning to Wilson's long-term replacement with the top pick.
Packers, QB Love agree to four-year, $220m contract
Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers have agreed to a four-year extension worth $220million, tying him as the highest-paid quarterback in NFL history, according to multiple sources.
Love, who has only had one full season as an NFL starter, will earn $55m annually with $155m guaranteed and a $75m signing bonus, also the largest in league history.
His yearly salary ties him with Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow and Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence for highest in NFL history.
After finally trading Aaron Rodgers in April 2023, Love, 25, became the Packers’ undisputed starter. He struggled through the first seven games last season and Green Bay were 2-5 but he took off and the Packers finished 9-8 and earned a wild-card spot.
In the Packers’ final eight games of the regular season, Love had 16 touchdowns and one interception. In a 48-32 playoff win over the Dallas Cowboys, he had a near-perfect 157.2 passer rating with 16 of 21 completions for 272 yards, three touchdowns and no picks.
Love completed 372 of 579 passes (64.2%) for 4,159 yards last season with 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
His 32 TD passes ranked second in the NFL behind Dallas’ Dak Prescott (36).
All that production came while Love was throwing to the most productive, young group of receivers since at least 1970. The Packers’ 302 receptions, 3,642 receiving yards and 31 receiving touchdowns are the most by a team’s group of first-or second-year pass catchers since the AFL/NFL merger.
Green Bay also became the youngest team in that same span to win a playoff game with an average age of 25 years and 214 days.
Packers, QB Love agree to 4-year, $220 million contract
Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers have agreed to a four-year extension worth $220 million, tying him as the highest-paid quarterback in NFL history, according to multiple sources.
Love, who has only had one full season as an NFL starter, will earn $55 million annually with $155 million guaranteed and a $75 million signing bonus, also the largest in league history.
His yearly salary ties him with Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow and Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence for highest in NFL history.
After finally trading Aaron Rodgers in April 2023, Love, 25, became the Packers’ undisputed starter. He struggled through the first seven games last season and Green Bay was 2-5 but he took off and the Packers finished 9-8 and earned a wild card spot.
In the Packers’ final eight games of the regular season, Love had 16 touchdowns and one interception. In a 48-32 playoff win over the Dallas Cowboys, he had a near-perfect 157.2 passer rating with 16 of 21 completions for 272 yards, three touchdowns and no picks.
Love completed 372 of 579 passes (64.2 percent) for 4,159 yards last season with 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
His 32 TD passes ranked second in the NFL behind Dallas’ Dak Prescott (36).
All that production came while Love was throwing to the most productive, young group of receivers since at least 1970. The Packers’ 302 receptions, 3,642 receiving yards and 31 receiving touchdowns are the most by a team’s group of first-or second-year pass catchers since the AFL/NFL merger.
Green Bay also became the youngest team in that same span to win a playoff game with an average age of 25 years and 214 days.
Dolphins extend Tua Tagovailoa on 4-year, $212M deal
The Miami Dolphins and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa have agreed to a four-year, $212.4million contract extension, multiple media outlets reported Friday.
The contract, which is the largest in franchise history, reportedly includes $167million in guarantees, which ranks eighth among NFL quarterbacks.
With a long-term deal in place, Tagovailoa can focus on preparing for the upcoming season. He had been a minimal participant in Miami’s initial training camp sessions.
Drafted fifth overall out of Alabama, Tagovailoa has had a passer rating over 100 in each of the last two seasons and answered durability concerns by starting all 17 games last year.
While some pundits had been hesitant to endorse a large extension for Tagovailoa, but Dolphins general manager Chris Grier was determined to keep the left-hander in Miami.
"We're strong believers in him. And you guys all feel [coach Mike McDaniel's] passion about him when he talks about him," Grier said in February.
"Just in the two years of what he's done, he's grown in areas to where he led the league in passing and did some great things this year. And we all feel there's still another level he can take it.
"The way he's attacked this and wants to be great, and the combination of Mike and working with that and that trust and belief in each other, we do think there's still another level which he could go."
Tagovailoa completed 69.3 percent of his passes last season for 4,624 yards, 29 touchdowns and 14 interceptions while leading the Dolphins to an 11-6 record. The Dolphins’ play-off appearance was brief, ending in a 26-7 loss in frigid Kansas City in the wild-card round.
Since McDaniel took over as head coach, Tagovailoa ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards (8,172), fifth in passing touchdowns (54) and second in passer rating (102.9).
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