Related items

• The Numbers Game: Dortmund out to end Munich misery as Bayern boss Tuchel crosses divide

  German football's biggest game will take on extra significance this weekend when Bayern Munich host Borussia Dortmund at the Allianz Arena.

  Dortmund have mounted a serious challenge to Bayern's sustained Bundesliga dominance this season and lead the defending champions by a point.

  Bayern's inability to take control of the title race led to them surprisingly parting ways with Julian Nagelsmann on March 24.

  His replacement, a man who has the other side of this storied rivalry, Thomas Tuchel, who was BVB coach from 2015 to 2017.

  Tuchel's Dortmund overcame Bayern en route to DFB-Pokal glory in 2017, but the former Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea boss is now immediately under tremendous pressure to deliver victory for Die Roten.

  For Dortmund, a win in Bavaria could go a long way to helping Edin Terzic's men seal the title.

  But history is firmly against them doing that. With the help of Opta numbers, Stats Perform previews a potential title decider.

  Dortmund's Munich misery

  Dortmund's 2-2 draw with Bayern in the reverse fixture ended a run of eight consecutive defeats in competitive matches against them.

  But the Allianz Arena has become a house of horrors for BVB. Indeed, Dortmund have lost their last eight away games against Bayern in the league.

  In Dortmund's Bundesliga history, they have only had one longer losing streak away from home: versus Werder Bremen from 1979 to 1989 (10 matches).

  Good omens for BVB

  By their lofty standards, Bayern have struggled mightily in 2023.

  They have won only five of their 10 Bundesliga games in 2023 (D3 L2) and have 52 points after 25 games.

  That is their lowest at this stage of the season since 2011-12, when they had 51 points. The season ended with Dortmund winning the title, Bayern have not failed to do so since.

  Since this campaign resumed, Dortmund have claimed a league-high 22 points in eight games. That is a club record for BVB after eight games in the second half of the season. The last time they collected as many points at this stage was the 2011-12 title-winning season under Jurgen Klopp.

  The omens are good for Dortmund as they look to end Bayern's reign, but they will need to avoid a repeat of what happened the last time they were top of the Bundesliga in the second half of the season.

  Table toppers in trouble?

  Dortmund are top of the table for the first time since the second matchday of the 2019-20 season.

  Prior to this campaign, they had not been at the summit in the second half of the season since matchday 27 in 2018-19, which saw them thrashed 5-0 by Bayern at the Allianz Arena.

  Simply put, Dortmund cannot afford the same outcome this time around if they are to maintain their push to dethrone Bayern.

• Newcastle United v Manchester United: Preview and prediciton

  Newcastle United are heading into a "massive month" as they bid for Champions League qualification, and their first task is EFL Cup final foes Manchester United.

  Newcastle's long wait for a major trophy goes on after they were beaten 2-0 by Man United at Wembley in February.

  This can still be a successful season for the Magpies, however, with a top-four finish within their hands. They could even leapfrog third-placed Man United with a win on Sunday.

  Eddie Howe's side will not be short of motivation for that match at St James' Park, although it is far from the last big game they have in April.

  There are another six fixtures to come before the end of the month, and Howe said: "It's a massive month. Whenever you have an intense period of games, you know those results are going to define what we do this season.

  "The last two results [wins against Wolves and Nottingham Forest] put us in a really strong position and also just lifted confidence levels and morale in the squad.

  "This is going to be a big week to come. It's Manchester United first, so we have to focus on that alone and learn our lessons from the cup final defeat."

  The EFL Cup clash came after Erik ten Hag had described Newcastle as "annoying" in reference to their gamesmanship.

  Although Howe suggested on Friday such claims had been "overblown", he confirmed Newcastle would be out to annoy their opponents.

  That is certainly what Ten Hag expects as he revisited the top before this encounter, saying: "We know they delay. It's something that the referee doesn't want.

  "Whey want to have tempo in the game, that is the aim of the Premier League, so they have to be consistent to let the game go."

  He added: "It's a team that is really hard to beat. We are looking forward to the challenge, and the evidence is we can beat them."

  PLAYERS TO WATCH

  Newcastle United – Alexander Isak

  Isak returned injured the last time he went away on international duty in September, missing more than three months as a result. This time, the forward appears to be fit after featuring for Sweden and is coming into form, scoring six times in 10 league matches this season.

  Isak has three in his last two games, with Freddie Ljungberg and Zlatan Ibrahimovic the only Swedish players to have previously netted in three in a row in the competition.

  Manchester United – Marcus Rashford

  Rashford, unlike Isak, did not go away on international duty, complaining of a problem ahead of linking up with England. That appeared to frustrate Gareth Southgate, but it should have him fit for this game.

  It is a boost to United, with Rashford scoring more winning goals than any other player in the Premier League this season. His nine have only twice been topped by a United player in a single campaign – Cristiano Ronaldo (12 in 2007-08) and Wayne Rooney (10 in 2009-10).

  MATCH PREDICTION – DRAW

  Newcastle are winless in six against Man United in the Premier League, but their past two meetings – the only two under Howe – have both ended in draws.

  It was goalless between the sides at Old Trafford. Although Newcastle have not kept clean sheets in consecutive games against Man United since May 1997, the visitors are without a goal in their past two league games.

  The Magpies are more than capable of frustrating their opponents if they have a result to protect, too, with their matches this season spanning the third-longest period of time on average at 98 minutes and 58 seconds but seeing a ball-in-play low of 51 minutes and 41 seconds.

  OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

  Newcastle - 34.3 per cent

  Man United - 36.8 per cent

  Draw - 28.9 per cent

• Arsenal v Leeds United: Preview and prediction

  Arsenal can see the finish line in the Premier League title race after returning from the international break, but Mikel Arteta just wants his players to enjoy it.

  The Gunners are in pole position to end a 19-year wait for the championship, eight points clear of Manchester City – albeit having played a game more.

  Arteta's men were also in top form before the season was paused a fortnight ago, and they will be expecting another win at home to Leeds United.

  By then, City will have played Liverpool, who could tilt the odds further in Arsenal's favour.

  But Arteta is trying to avoid worrying about matters elsewhere, explaining this week: "We cannot control the outcome of other clubs.

  "All we can control is what we do every single day, how we behave, how we train, how we communicate, how we control our energy, and the messages we send to our people.

  "Now, it has to be about enjoying the last part of the season, with enthusiasm, energy and a real hunger to continue to do what we've done and, if possible, better.

  "I think we have really good people, and we have really good players. They are curious all the time to improve, learn and be better. It is a joy to work with this group.

  "They really follow us and want to please everybody, and they love what they do, love living with each other and playing for each other. I think you can sense that."

  Leeds were beaten 1-0 in the reverse fixture at Elland Road, a near-miss that new boss Javi Gracia has no interest in reflecting on.

  "We are looking for the next game and focused on the next game," he said.

  "For sure we are playing against the team at the top of the table and it will be very demanding for us.

  "But to have one option to get a good result, the first step is to believe that you can do it. The team believe that we can do it."

  PLAYERS TO WATCH

  Arsenal – Bukayo Saka

  Saka was one of the undoubted stars of the international break, with a sublime goal and equally brilliant assist for Harry Kane in England's 2-0 win over Ukraine. That sort of display was in keeping with what the Arsenal winger has produced in the Premier League this season, with no other player in the division joining him in reaching double-figures for both goals (12) and assists (10). Only Erling Haaland (33) and Kane (23) have more goal involvements.

  Leeds United – Jack Harrison

  Harrison has suddenly rediscovered his scoring touch, netting in back-to-back games after just two goals in his previous 29 Premier League appearances. But that is not to say he had not been delivering for Leeds in other ways as the winger leads the way for both assists (six) and chances created (41) among his team-mates.

  MATCH PREDICTION – ARSENAL WIN

  Arsenal have not lost to Leeds in all competitions since a 3-2 defeat in May 2003 ended their title bid. It will take more than that to stop the Gunners this time, though, and a repeat appears pretty unlikely at Emirates Stadium.

  Leeds have won only two of their 23 meetings with Premier League leaders, including losing each of their four such games against Arsenal by an aggregate score of 14-2.

  Meanwhile, Arteta's men are on a six-match winning run in the league, their joint-best under this manager. Arsenal last won seven in a row with Unai Emery at the helm between August and October 2018.

  OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

  Arsenal - 61.4 per cent

  Leeds United - 15.7 per cent

  Draw - 22.9 per cent