As enjoyable and memorable as the NBA postseason can be, it rarely produces significant surprises.
Sure, an occasional first-round upset stands out – like MVP Dirk Nowitzki and the top-seeded Dallas Mavericks falling to the Golden State Warriors in 2007 – but almost never does an underdog hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy as season's end.
Of course, that depends on your definition of an underdog.
In each of the last 25 seasons – and in 49 of the last 51 – the team that won the NBA Finals was a top three seed in their conference. The only exception to that rule since 1970 is the 1995 Houston Rockets, who finished sixth in the Western Conference despite being the reigning NBA champions.
The 2020-21 NBA season has already been an unprecedented one, with games played in empty arenas and players being held out of games due to league virus safety protocols. And why should the oddities end when the playoffs begin?
From 2015-18, the Warriors played the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Finals four straight seasons, making everything beforehand feel like a waste of time. The pattern was broken in 2019 because LeBron James switched conferences, but the Warriors represented the west for the fifth straight season. Last season, James played in the Finals for the ninth time in 10 campaigns, leading the Los Angeles Lakers to a title.
This season, however, is suspiciously devoid of a juggernaut. The top regular season teams are unproven in the playoffs, and the typical postseason performers must answer serious questions and navigate a difficult road to the Finals.
The Utah Jazz had the league's best record this season at 52-20, a .722 win percentage. That is the fifth-worst record by a league-leading team since the NBA-ABA merger and the worst in 20 years.
Lowest Win Pct by Team With NBA's Best Record in Season, Since 1976-77
SEASON TEAM WL PCT
1976-77 Los Angeles Lakers 53-29 .646
1978-79 Washington Bullets 54-28 .659
1977-78 Portland Trail Blazers 58-24 .707
2000-01 San Antonio Spurs 58-24 .707
2020-21 Utah Jazz 52-20 .722
With just 10 wins separating the top-seeded Jazz and seventh-seeded Lakers, the west could deviate from seeding by quite a bit.
Even in the often-predictable east, the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics were considered preseason favorites in the conference, only to finish with the sixth and seventh seeds.
The fact is that whoever wins their conference to play in the NBA Finals – and ultimately raises the Larry O'Brien Trophy – will have a unique story about their road there. Whether it is a team who are a proven commodity that flipped the switch after a sub-par regular season or a high-seeded team that overcame past postseason failures, the 2021 NBA champions – like the 2020-21 regular season itself – will be unlike any other.
Honourable Mentions: West number one Dallas Mavericks, West number six Portland Trail Blazers
Both teams lack the depth to make a serious championship run but have enough star power in the backcourt to scare any opponent.
Dallas will face the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round and took two of three games this season against Los Angeles. Luka Doncic averaged 30.3 points, 8.3 rebounds and 11.0 assists in those games. In nine career games against the Clippers, Doncic is attempting 9.9 free throws per game, his most against any Western Conference opponent.
The Blazers will go exactly as far as Damian Lillard takes them. When Portland made their run to the Western Conference Finals in 2019, the Blazers were 7-0 when Lillard had a plus-minus above zero and were 1-8 when he had a negative plus-minus.
The 'Not Your Year' Tier: West number three Denver Nuggets
The season-ending knee injury to Nuggets star guard Jamal Murray was a devastating blow to Denver's title chances and takes some fun out of a special season by Nikola Jokic.
Although Murray's injury solidified Jokic as the MVP favourite – leading the Nuggets to a 13-5 record since the injury – it is hard to envision Denver making a deep run without their star guard.
The knock on Jokic has been that he would generally rather pass than score, and Denver are 5-8 in postseason games when Jokic attempts 20 or more shots.
With Jokic scoring a career-high 26.4 points per game this season and with the continued blossoming of Michael Porter Jr., however, the Nuggets remain dangerous in the playoffs.
The 'Prove It' Tier: West number four Los Angeles Clippers, East number one Philadelphia 76ers, West number one Utah Jazz, East number three Milwaukee Bucks, West number two Phoenix Suns
On paper, each of these teams appear to be solid championship contenders, complete with star power and coming off an impressive regular season.
But each of these teams need to prove they can take another step forward, either because of a limited postseason history or a checkered one.
At the start of last year's playoffs, the Clippers were considered by many to be the favourites but blowing a 3-1 series lead in the second round to the Nuggets was a humbling experience. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have quietly had fantastic seasons, each averaging at least 23 points, six rebounds and five assists.
The 76ers and Bucks have been mainstays in the east playoffs for the past few seasons and are hoping that this year's vintage has the answers to take the next step.
Philadelphia, under new leadership with Doc Rivers and buoyed by the shooting of Danny Green and Seth Curry, have a scoring differential of plus-16.4 points per 100 possessions when Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons are on the court together, the best mark in the history of the much-maligned duo.
Milwaukee won 11 of their last 15 games, including two wins each against Philadelphia and the Brooklyn Nets – the two teams seeded higher in the east.
A machine over the last few regular seasons, the Bucks have faltered in past playoff series as Giannis Antetokounmpo failed to score in the clutch and his team-mates shrank from the moment. The costly acquisition of Jrue Holiday should help take some of the pressure off, and Antetokounmpo is shooting 73.3 percent (11 of 15) this season in the last two minutes of a game within five points.
Utah and Phoenix are fascinating prospects after stellar regular seasons but the consensus regarding both teams is that they have already maxed out their talent before the postseason starts.
Rudy Gobert is an All-Defensive Team mainstay for good reason, but Utah have been forced to sit him in the playoffs against smaller teams or when his free-throw shooting becomes a problem.
The Jazz are expecting leading scorer Donovan Mitchell to return from a sprained right ankle, but Utah are better operating as a five-man offense than a one-man show. When Mitchell attempts 20 or fewer field goals this season, the Jazz are 27-2. When he shoots more than 20 times, the Jazz are 12-12.
The Suns are 59-21 over their last 80 games, including in last year's bubble, and have become one of the best stories in the league. Chris Paul turns every team he is on into a winner, and he has a case to receive MVP votes scoring a modest 16.4 points per game.
For all of his career accomplishments, however, Paul has famously only advanced past the second round once in his career, and he now leads a core group of Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges that lacks playoff experience.
The 'Sleeping Giant' Tier: East number six Miami Heat, West number seven Los Angeles Lakers
Last year's finalists have endured brutal regular seasons filled with disappointment, injuries and COVID-19 protocols.
Only Duncan Robinson played all 72 games this season for Miami, and while the Heat are healthier now than during their nightmare 11-17 start, serious questions remain about the health of veterans Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic, who both missed at least 20 games this season.
The Lakers remain the betting favourites coming out of the west, despite needing a 103-100 play-in win over the Golden State Warriors to clinch a playoff berth. LeBron James and Anthony Davis missed a combined 63 games this season, and the duo only played together in 27 games.
While the health of the Lakers' superstars remains a concern, Los Angeles were 19-8 when both James and Davis played. The defending champions had a scoring differential of plus-11.4 points per 100 possession when the duo were on the court together. For as long as James and Davis are playing, the Lakers remain a juggernaut.
The Favourites: East number two Brooklyn Nets
Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving.
The Nets are the first team to ever have three players average at least 24 points (minimum 35 games). Durant, Harden and Irving are the highest-scoring trio since the early 1960s, when Wilt Chamberlain and Elgin Baylor were producing some of the best seasons in league history.
What makes Brooklyn such a strong contender, however, is that the supporting cast around their dynamic trio is a real asset.
The Nets' reserves scored 35.9 points per game this season, better than the bench of fellow contenders like the Bucks, Trail Blazers, Heat and Nuggets.
First-year head coach Steve Nash has consistently been able to field a competitive squad during a tumultuous year. As evidence of the change and adversity the Nets faced this season, they have used 38 different starting line-ups – only the lowly Rockets used more.
With veteran big men like DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin, the Nets can counter size but are also versatile enough to play small, with Jeff Green defending opposing centers.
The high-profile names make Brooklyn feel like an inevitability, but there is still plenty of uncertainty with this newly constructed super-team.
Durant, Harden and Irving have only played 202 minutes together, less than six percent of Brooklyn's season. The trio appear to blend well, scoring a torrid 117.8 points per 100 possessions, but any group of stars will face challenges in their first playoff test.
Lakers will 'play 'til the wheels fall off', vows LeBron James
LeBron James has urged the Los Angeles Lakers to deal with the pressure, and thrive under it, as they aim to avoid a series sweep against the Denver Nuggets.
The Lakers slumped to a 3-0 lead in their first-round series against the reigning NBA champions following a 112-105 loss on Thursday.
Denver have now won 11 straight games against the Lakers, who squandered a big lead in Game 2 and were no match for the Nuggets in Game 3, with Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon in fine form.
James had 26 points and Anthony Davis had 33 for the Lakers, but Los Angeles went just 5 of 27 from the floor and missed 15 of their first 16 3-pointers.
Defeat means the Lakers will have to become the first team in NBA history to rally from a 0-3 playoff deficit to keep their postseason alive.
James, though, laid down the gauntlet for his teammates.
"It's one game at a time, at this point. You lose, you go home. You come out with the mindset, 'Let's get one, force a Game 5, and then we go from there,'" James said.
"As long as you still have life, then you obviously have belief. I just think you play 'til the wheels fall off. That's what it's always about for me.
"That's a mindset, and I know [Davis] feels the same way.
"You're supposed to have anxiety and pressure, or feel the pressure.
"That's what it's about. This is what the postseason is about.
"Me and this guy [Davis], have been playing together for six years. We've been to the mountaintop. We've been close to the mountaintop. We've played a lot of games.
"We know what it takes to win. We know what it takes to win a championship and how damn near perfect you got to be. That's not like something that's so crazy to obtain."
Lakers coach Darvin Ham came under criticism from some fans following the Game 3 loss, but he paid credit to the Nuggets.
"They have a championship confidence," he said.
"That starting group has been together for a long time. Their net rating is off the charts as a starting group. They had guys step up and make plays."
The Nuggets are taking nothing for granted.
"I think every game is tougher and tougher," Jokic said.
"They were up 20 in Denver; they were up 12 today in the first half. I think it's really hard to play against the same team over again.
"You can't get bored with the style of the play or whatever. You just need to keep doing you, especially for us - because we won the last three - and just trust what we are doing and don't get bored with success because it can go wrong really quick."
Embiid reveals Bell's palsy diagnosis after historic 50-point performance versus Knicks
Fresh from putting up 50 points in the Philadelphia 76ers' Game 3 win over the New York Knicks, Joel Embiid revealed he has been suffering from Bell's palsy, a condition affecting the left side of his face and causing blurred vision.
The reigning NBA MVP added eight rebounds and four assists to his half-century as the Sixers dragged themselves back into their first-round series after two road losses.
He became the first player in playoff history to record a 50-point game while attempting fewer than 20 shots, going 13 of 19 from the floor and making 19 of 21 free throws.
He did it while suffering from a condition which causes temporary weakness or lack of movement in one side of the face.
Embiid has to continually use eye drops to combat the blurred vision, and he says the symptoms could last for weeks or months.
"I think it started a day or two before the Miami game [in the Play-In tournament], and I had bad migraines and thought it was nothing," Embiid said in his post-game press conference.
"It's pretty annoying, you know, with the left side of my face, my mouth and my eye. So yeah, it's been tough.
"I'm not a quitter, so I've got to keep fighting, but yeah, it's unfortunate. That's the way I look at it. It's not an excuse. I've got to keep pushing."
Smiling, he added: "I just hope it could stay like this. I've got a beautiful face. I don't like it when my mouth is looking the other way.
"Like I said, it's an unfortunate situation, but everything happens for a reason. Like I said, I've got to take care of myself mentally."
Embiid has endured a difficult season after landing the NBA's top individual prize last year. He missed two months after undergoing surgery to repair the lateral meniscus in his left knee in February.
Still wearing a brace on the affected knee, Embiid said he is still unable to trust it completely.
"No, I'm just trying to keep pushing," he said when asked if he had 100 per cent confidence in his condition. "Like I said, I'm not going to quit.
"Even if it's on one leg, I'm still going to go out there and try, but no, that's not an excuse. I've got to keep playing better and better and better.
"Tonight I got lucky. I made a few shots. I've got to find a way to rebound, and I don't even care about rebounds. I've just got to make sure that my man doesn't get it, and then box out my man and take him out of the play. Whatever it takes to win."
NBA: Nuggets close to Lakers sweep, Embiid has 50 as Sixers cut deficit
The Denver Nuggets are on the brink of sweeping the Los Angeles Lakers after opening up a 3-0 lead in the teams' first-round series on Thursday, registering their 11th straight win against them.
Aaron Gordon had a playoff career-high 29 points and added 15 rebounds, while Nikola Jokic was just short of a triple-double with 24 points, 15 rebounds and nine assists as Denver clinched a 112-105 win.
Having squandered a big lead in Game 2, the Lakers failed to respond at home as the Nuggets began the second half with a 24-10 run to pull away from their hosts. Los Angeles failed to get closer than eight points in the fourth.
LeBron James had 26 points, six rebounds and nine assists, while Anthony Davis had 33 points and 15 rebounds, but Los Angeles were let down by their shooting from the field.
They shot just 5 of 27 from the floor, missing with 15 of their first 16 3-point attempts.
Game 4 takes place at Crypto.com Arena on Saturday, with the Lakers needing to become the first team in NBA history to rally from a 0-3 playoff deficit to keep James' 21st season alive.
A small group of home fans showed their displeasure with head coach Darvin Ham after the loss, staying behind to chant, "fire Darvin" as the rest of the crowd filtered out.
Embiid's half-century takes Knicks-Sixers to 2-1
Joel Embiid's huge 50-point haul breathed fresh life into the Philadelphia 76ers' series with the New York Knicks, bringing the Sixers back to 2-1 after two road losses to start the playoffs.
The 76ers triumphed 125-114 as Embiid became the first player in playoff history to score 50 points on fewer than 20 shots in a game, going 13 of 19 from the floor and making 19 of 21 free throws.
Philadelphia were three down at the half but produced a huge third quarter, Embiid dragging his team into a 98-85 lead with four 3s in that period.
Tyrese Maxey supported Embiid with 25 points and seven assists, after the NBA admitted the officials missed a foul on him in the closing stages of the Sixers' controversial Game 2 loss.
Jalen Brunson led the Knicks with 39 points and 13 assists while Josh Hart tacked on 20 points, but Donte DiVincenzo only had five after hitting the decisive 3-pointer in Game 2.
Cavs suffer worst playoff loss as Magic hit back
The Orlando Magic also hit back after losing the first two games of their first-round series, dealing the Cleveland Cavaliers the heaviest loss in their playoff history on Thursday.
Taking the series back to Kia Center after a pair of road losses, Orlando recorded a 121-83 win behind Paolo Banchero's 31 points, with Jalen Suggs adding 24 for the fifth seeds in the East.
Orlando led by as many as 43 points in the fourth quarter before ultimately settling for a 38-point margin. The Cavs' previous worst playoff loss was a 36-point defeat to the Washington Wizards in 2008.
Franz Wagner tacked on 16 points and eight assists for Orlando, who now have the chance to level the series at home in Game 4 on Sunday.
Cleveland had four players in double figures but none managed more than the 15 put up by both Jarrett Allen and Caris Levert, the visitors shooting a miserable 8 of 34 (23.5 per cent) from the floor.
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