As enjoyable and memorable as the NBA postseason can be, it rarely produces significant surprises.
Sure, an occasional first-round upset stands out – like MVP Dirk Nowitzki and the top-seeded Dallas Mavericks falling to the Golden State Warriors in 2007 – but almost never does an underdog hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy as season's end.
Of course, that depends on your definition of an underdog.
In each of the last 25 seasons – and in 49 of the last 51 – the team that won the NBA Finals was a top three seed in their conference. The only exception to that rule since 1970 is the 1995 Houston Rockets, who finished sixth in the Western Conference despite being the reigning NBA champions.
The 2020-21 NBA season has already been an unprecedented one, with games played in empty arenas and players being held out of games due to league virus safety protocols. And why should the oddities end when the playoffs begin?
From 2015-18, the Warriors played the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Finals four straight seasons, making everything beforehand feel like a waste of time. The pattern was broken in 2019 because LeBron James switched conferences, but the Warriors represented the west for the fifth straight season. Last season, James played in the Finals for the ninth time in 10 campaigns, leading the Los Angeles Lakers to a title.
This season, however, is suspiciously devoid of a juggernaut. The top regular season teams are unproven in the playoffs, and the typical postseason performers must answer serious questions and navigate a difficult road to the Finals.
The Utah Jazz had the league's best record this season at 52-20, a .722 win percentage. That is the fifth-worst record by a league-leading team since the NBA-ABA merger and the worst in 20 years.
Lowest Win Pct by Team With NBA's Best Record in Season, Since 1976-77
SEASON TEAM WL PCT
1976-77 Los Angeles Lakers 53-29 .646
1978-79 Washington Bullets 54-28 .659
1977-78 Portland Trail Blazers 58-24 .707
2000-01 San Antonio Spurs 58-24 .707
2020-21 Utah Jazz 52-20 .722
With just 10 wins separating the top-seeded Jazz and seventh-seeded Lakers, the west could deviate from seeding by quite a bit.
Even in the often-predictable east, the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics were considered preseason favorites in the conference, only to finish with the sixth and seventh seeds.
The fact is that whoever wins their conference to play in the NBA Finals – and ultimately raises the Larry O'Brien Trophy – will have a unique story about their road there. Whether it is a team who are a proven commodity that flipped the switch after a sub-par regular season or a high-seeded team that overcame past postseason failures, the 2021 NBA champions – like the 2020-21 regular season itself – will be unlike any other.
Honourable Mentions: West number one Dallas Mavericks, West number six Portland Trail Blazers
Both teams lack the depth to make a serious championship run but have enough star power in the backcourt to scare any opponent.
Dallas will face the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round and took two of three games this season against Los Angeles. Luka Doncic averaged 30.3 points, 8.3 rebounds and 11.0 assists in those games. In nine career games against the Clippers, Doncic is attempting 9.9 free throws per game, his most against any Western Conference opponent.
The Blazers will go exactly as far as Damian Lillard takes them. When Portland made their run to the Western Conference Finals in 2019, the Blazers were 7-0 when Lillard had a plus-minus above zero and were 1-8 when he had a negative plus-minus.
The 'Not Your Year' Tier: West number three Denver Nuggets
The season-ending knee injury to Nuggets star guard Jamal Murray was a devastating blow to Denver's title chances and takes some fun out of a special season by Nikola Jokic.
Although Murray's injury solidified Jokic as the MVP favourite – leading the Nuggets to a 13-5 record since the injury – it is hard to envision Denver making a deep run without their star guard.
The knock on Jokic has been that he would generally rather pass than score, and Denver are 5-8 in postseason games when Jokic attempts 20 or more shots.
With Jokic scoring a career-high 26.4 points per game this season and with the continued blossoming of Michael Porter Jr., however, the Nuggets remain dangerous in the playoffs.
The 'Prove It' Tier: West number four Los Angeles Clippers, East number one Philadelphia 76ers, West number one Utah Jazz, East number three Milwaukee Bucks, West number two Phoenix Suns
On paper, each of these teams appear to be solid championship contenders, complete with star power and coming off an impressive regular season.
But each of these teams need to prove they can take another step forward, either because of a limited postseason history or a checkered one.
At the start of last year's playoffs, the Clippers were considered by many to be the favourites but blowing a 3-1 series lead in the second round to the Nuggets was a humbling experience. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have quietly had fantastic seasons, each averaging at least 23 points, six rebounds and five assists.
The 76ers and Bucks have been mainstays in the east playoffs for the past few seasons and are hoping that this year's vintage has the answers to take the next step.
Philadelphia, under new leadership with Doc Rivers and buoyed by the shooting of Danny Green and Seth Curry, have a scoring differential of plus-16.4 points per 100 possessions when Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons are on the court together, the best mark in the history of the much-maligned duo.
Milwaukee won 11 of their last 15 games, including two wins each against Philadelphia and the Brooklyn Nets – the two teams seeded higher in the east.
A machine over the last few regular seasons, the Bucks have faltered in past playoff series as Giannis Antetokounmpo failed to score in the clutch and his team-mates shrank from the moment. The costly acquisition of Jrue Holiday should help take some of the pressure off, and Antetokounmpo is shooting 73.3 percent (11 of 15) this season in the last two minutes of a game within five points.
Utah and Phoenix are fascinating prospects after stellar regular seasons but the consensus regarding both teams is that they have already maxed out their talent before the postseason starts.
Rudy Gobert is an All-Defensive Team mainstay for good reason, but Utah have been forced to sit him in the playoffs against smaller teams or when his free-throw shooting becomes a problem.
The Jazz are expecting leading scorer Donovan Mitchell to return from a sprained right ankle, but Utah are better operating as a five-man offense than a one-man show. When Mitchell attempts 20 or fewer field goals this season, the Jazz are 27-2. When he shoots more than 20 times, the Jazz are 12-12.
The Suns are 59-21 over their last 80 games, including in last year's bubble, and have become one of the best stories in the league. Chris Paul turns every team he is on into a winner, and he has a case to receive MVP votes scoring a modest 16.4 points per game.
For all of his career accomplishments, however, Paul has famously only advanced past the second round once in his career, and he now leads a core group of Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges that lacks playoff experience.
The 'Sleeping Giant' Tier: East number six Miami Heat, West number seven Los Angeles Lakers
Last year's finalists have endured brutal regular seasons filled with disappointment, injuries and COVID-19 protocols.
Only Duncan Robinson played all 72 games this season for Miami, and while the Heat are healthier now than during their nightmare 11-17 start, serious questions remain about the health of veterans Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic, who both missed at least 20 games this season.
The Lakers remain the betting favourites coming out of the west, despite needing a 103-100 play-in win over the Golden State Warriors to clinch a playoff berth. LeBron James and Anthony Davis missed a combined 63 games this season, and the duo only played together in 27 games.
While the health of the Lakers' superstars remains a concern, Los Angeles were 19-8 when both James and Davis played. The defending champions had a scoring differential of plus-11.4 points per 100 possession when the duo were on the court together. For as long as James and Davis are playing, the Lakers remain a juggernaut.
The Favourites: East number two Brooklyn Nets
Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving.
The Nets are the first team to ever have three players average at least 24 points (minimum 35 games). Durant, Harden and Irving are the highest-scoring trio since the early 1960s, when Wilt Chamberlain and Elgin Baylor were producing some of the best seasons in league history.
What makes Brooklyn such a strong contender, however, is that the supporting cast around their dynamic trio is a real asset.
The Nets' reserves scored 35.9 points per game this season, better than the bench of fellow contenders like the Bucks, Trail Blazers, Heat and Nuggets.
First-year head coach Steve Nash has consistently been able to field a competitive squad during a tumultuous year. As evidence of the change and adversity the Nets faced this season, they have used 38 different starting line-ups – only the lowly Rockets used more.
With veteran big men like DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin, the Nets can counter size but are also versatile enough to play small, with Jeff Green defending opposing centers.
The high-profile names make Brooklyn feel like an inevitability, but there is still plenty of uncertainty with this newly constructed super-team.
Durant, Harden and Irving have only played 202 minutes together, less than six percent of Brooklyn's season. The trio appear to blend well, scoring a torrid 117.8 points per 100 possessions, but any group of stars will face challenges in their first playoff test.
Foden: De Bruyne the best in the Premier League
Phil Foden hailed Manchester City team-mate Kevin De Bruyne as the Premier League's best player after the pair both netted in the 4-0 win over Brighton and Hove Albion.
De Bruyne opened the scoring in Thursday's contest at Amex Stadium before Foden took over with a couple of goals of his own before half-time.
Julian Alvarez rounded off the scoring just after the hour in a one-sided contest as an Erling Haaland-less City moved to within a point of leaders Arsenal with a game in hand.
Belgium international De Bruyne now has four goals and six assists in just 13 league appearances for City this season.
Speaking to Sky Sports News after the win over Brighton, Foden said: "I think when he is at it, he is the best player in the Premier League."
Foden's first goal came via a deflected free-kick that he himself won, although replays showed he slipped rather than being fouled.
The England international doubled his personal tally with a composed finish after Brighton were caught in possession at the back.
Asked about playing more centrally, Foden said: "I have always said that I see myself there. This year I have moved inside and it has helped me massively.
"I enjoy it in the middle. It's where I want to be. At the moment, I am just enjoying my football and playing with freedom."
De Bruyne had earlier opened the scoring with a brilliant opener - his first headed goal for City in the Premier League - as City made it 30 games unbeaten in normal time across all competitions.
Alvarez then went on to round off the scoring in a game that not only saw the reigning champions close the gap on Arsenal, but also narrow the goal difference margin to eight.
"It was a good game," De Bruyne said. "I think we played really good in the first half and every game is a lot of pressure. All we can do is prepare as we did today and win the game that is in front of us.
"We just want to win game-by-game and push for the title. We don't get ahead of ourselves. Now the next game is coming quickly. Try to recover and we go again."
Kyle Walker assisted the De Bruyne and Alvarez goals - the first time the defender has set up two goals in a single Premier League game in what was his 390th appearance in the competition.
Reflecting on his rare headed goal, De Bruyne said: "It doesn't happen too much. Kyle gave a good cross and I think the only way I could reach it is by jumping to it. I will take it but it's not something I am good at."
City have rather ominously won four Premier League games in a row and travel to strugglers Nottingham Forest next up at the weekend, knowing victory in their remaining five games will secure an unprecedented fourth straight title.
"I trust my team. All respect to Liverpool and Arsenal, they are amazing," De Bruyne added. "Arsenal are doing what they need to do and we are also needing to do it. Work hard and be humble enough to keep pushing."
'Let's make it mano a mano' – Adebayo using criticism as fuel as Heat level Celtics series
The Miami Heat are desperate to silence their doubters and are using outside criticism as fuel in their first-round playoff series against the Boston Heat, having levelled it up at 1-1.
That is according to forward Bam Adebayo, who had 21 points and was nine of 13 shooting in the Heat's 111-101 win at TD Garden on Wednesday.
Miami buried their hosts under a mountain of 3-pointers in Game 2, setting a franchise record for a postseason game by shooting 23 of 43 (53.5 per cent) from the field.
Speaking after the game, Adebayo said the way in which the Eastern Conference's eighth seeds have been written off by neutrals was spurring them on.
"We've been doubted a lot through our playoff runs, people saying we couldn't do a lot of stuff that we eventually did," Adebayo said.
"So for me and my team, why lose belief now? Our backs are against the wall. Everybody's against us. So just use that as fuel.
"Our guys believe we can win. So, let's make it mano a mano… a cage fight. Let's hoop!"
Caleb Martin joined Adebayo on 21 points with five 3s, being booed by the Boston crowd every time he touched the ball following his heavy collision with Jayson Tatum in Game 1.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. contributed 14 points with three 3s, Nikola Jovic added a trio of 3s and Haywood Highsmith came off the bench to sink three 3s.
Martin said Miami's new shoot-on-sight mentality was part of a plan drawn up by Erik Spoelstra, saying: "I think it was about realising that being passive hurts us.
"We'd just be playing into their gameplan. We're too good of a shooting team to hesitate from 3."
Spoelstra himself said the Heat had taken the decision to be more proactive after being sunk by Boston's 3-point shooting in Game 1.
"I understand the math of it," the Miami coach said. "We're not going to shoot 50 of them. That's not realistic."
NBA: Heat get even with Celtics; Thunder roll Pelicans for 2-0 lead
Tyler Herro had 24 points and 14 assists and hit six of Miami’s franchise playoff-record 23 3-pointers as the Heat defeated the Boston Celtics, 111-101, to even their first-round series at a game apiece on Wednesday.
Bam Adebayo had 21 points and 10 rebounds and Caleb Martin added 21 points with five 3s for the Heat, who shot 53.5 percent (23 of 43) from long range to break the franchise playoff record of 20 3s, set against Milwaukee in 2021.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. contributed 14 points with three 3s, Nikola Jovic added a trio of 3s, nine rebounds and six assists and Haywood Highsmith came off the bench to hit three 3s.
The series shifts to Miami for Games 3 and 4 on Saturday and Monday.
Jaylen Brown scored 33 points and Jayson Tatum added 28 for the top-seeded Celtics, who cut Miami’s lead to 102-96 with three minutes left. But Martin hit a 3 and Herro made a driving layup to essentially seal the win.
Tatum scored 14 points in the first quarter and showed no ill effects after he was undercut by Martin while going after a rebound in the final minute in Game 1.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren power Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 33 points and Chet Holmgren added 26 to lead the hot-shooting Oklahoma City Thunder to a 124-92 rout of the New Orleans Pelicans and a 2-0 lead in their Western Conference first-round series.
Jalen Williams had 21 points, seven assists and five rebounds for the Thunder, who shot 59 percent (46 for 78) from the floor and made 14 of 29 (48.3 percent) from 3-point range.
Game 3 will be Sunday in New Orleans.
Jonas Valanciunas had 19 points and Herbert Jones and Brandon Ingram each added 18 as the Pelicans continued to struggle offensively without injured star Zion Williamson (strained left hamstring).
New Orleans missed 19 of 26 from beyond the arc and made 33 field goals to 46 for Oklahoma City.
SportsMax is the Caribbean sports channel of choice, committed to providing sporting content of the highest quality to the Caribbean, delivered by a team of highly innovative, passionate and qualified professionals.
(876) 619-7629
digitalmedia@sportsmax.tv
