Title races are the best, aren't they?
Months of games, so many ups and downs, goals scored and conceded, and yet it can all still come down to the finest margins in the closing minutes of the last day.
To paraphrase Homer Simpson, the winner is showered with praise; the loser is taunted and booed until my throat is sore.
With one matchday left, the title races in both Serie A and the Premier League are going to the final 90 minutes. Milan and Manchester City have their destinies in their own hands, but Inter and Liverpool are looking to respectively pounce on any stumble.
There is the potential for exceptional drama in Italy and England, but can the Nerazzurri and the Reds have much hope of pulling off the improbable and wrestling the respective title from their rivals?
Stats Perform has taken a look at some of the more dramatic title races from recent history that show anything is possible.
Every goal matters
The Eredivisie provided about as tense a finish as you could imagine in 2006-07, with PSV Eindhoven and Ajax unsurprisingly the main characters.
A strong title defence from Ronald Koeman's PSV began with 18 wins from 21 games, and just one defeat.
However, losing four and drawing four of their next 12 games coupled with Ajax winning five of six leading into the final day meant they were neck and neck on points heading into the last game.
Despite being behind on goal difference, a tremendous effort from PSV saw them pip their rivals after an emphatic 5-1 win over Vitesse, while Ajax could only muster a 2-0 victory over Willem II, losing the title by a single goal.
When goals made no difference in LaLiga
In the same season, Real Madrid made a disappointing start in LaLiga, drawing their first game 0-0 with Villarreal at home before going on to lose seven of their first 21 league matches.
After drawing four games in a row between mid-February and mid-March, title hopes seemed to be over for Fabio Capello's men, only for nine wins in 11 games to send them into the final day level on points with Barcelona.
Barca thrashed Gimnastic 5-1 away from home to do their bit, but Madrid eased to a 3-1 win against Real Mallorca at the Santiago Bernabeu.
The Blaugrana had a significantly better goal difference of +45 compared to Madrid's +26, but that mattered not as the tie-breaker came down to head-to-head record, which was in Los Blancos' favour having beaten Barca 2-0 at home and drawn 3-3 at Camp Nou.
"Agueroooooo!"
Following Sheikh Mansour's takeover of Manchester City in 2008, the club had grown year-on-year and by the 2011-12 season, felt they were ready to mount a challenge at the top of the Premier League.
Roberto Mancini's side started well enough, winning 11 of their first 12 games, but three defeats across December and January dented hopes, while two losses and two draws in a five-game period in March and April all but killed them.
That was until five wins in a row coincided with Manchester United losing to Wigan Athletic and dramatically drawing 4-4 with Everton at Old Trafford.
City beating United on matchday 36 swung things in the Sky Blues' favour, and they went into the last day needing only a win against lowly QPR to seal it.
In typical fashion, they made it hard work for themselves, finding themselves 2-1 down heading towards the 90th minute. United had won 1-0 at Sunderland, which meant City needed two goals or they would have lost the title in agonising fashion.
An Edin Dzeko header made it 2-2, before Mario Balotelli slid in Sergio Aguero for one of the most famous goals in English football history, giving City their first top-flight title since 1969.
The ultimate last day head-to-head
It was like something out of a Hollywood film. All the previous nine LaLiga titles had been won by Clasico giants Barcelona and Real Madrid, but in 2013-14, Atletico Madrid believed they could spoil the party.
Barca were the pacesetters, winning 13 of their first 14 games, while Real Madrid were struggling after losing to both Atletico and Barca.
Diego Simeone led his team to an incredible 16 wins from their first 18 games, but a 0-0 draw with Barca made it look like it would be the tightest of run-ins.
Indeed it was, with Real coming back to the party after an 18-match unbeaten run, though back-to-back defeats to Barca and Sevilla stopped them in their tracks.
Gerardo Martino's Barca were wobbling too, losing three out of seven games between February and March, and then drawing with Getafe and Elche to give Atletico their chance on the final day.
As if it could not have been more dramatic, Atletico went into the last game three points clear, but needing a point to clinch the title, away at Barcelona.
Alexis Sanchez opened the scoring for the Blaugrana, but Diego Godin's header handed the crown to Atletico.
When six were not on the beach
You may not be as familiar with this final day, but it stands as one of the most remarkable in the history of the game.
Never mind two or three, there were six clubs that could still claim the Ligue 2 title going into the final round of matches in 2016-17.
Strasbourg, Amiens, Troyes, Lens, Brest and Nimes all in with a shout with one game remaining, all separated by three points at most.
Technically, the drama was not really with the winner of the title, but the other automatic promotion spot that was up for grabs, with Strasbourg able to hold on to top spot following a nervy 2-1 win against Bourg-Peronnas, but it was a 96th-minute strike from Emmanuel Bourgaud sealing a 2-1 win at Stade Reims for Amiens that provided unbelievable drama, taking the aptly named Unicorns from sixth to second.
I did not think I would be advising Inter and Liverpool to go into their games with an "Amiens mindset", but there we are.
Man Utd cannot afford to get complacent – Ten Hag
Erik ten Hag urged his players not to get complacent against a Burnley side who are still fighting for their place in the Premier League.
After a run of four games without a win in the top-flight, Manchester United came from behind with late goals from Bruno Fernandes and Rasmus Hojlund to beat bottom-of-the-table Sheffield United on Wednesday.
The Red Devils sit in sixth place on 53 points, three more than Newcastle United below them, but have not yet secured a place in Europe next season.
When asked what kind of challenge Burnley would pose, Ten Hag was full of praise for the way Vincent Kompany has set up his team.
“They play high-intensity football. They have changed their approach slightly in the season. They have had good results and are hard to beat, and all the compliments to Vincent and his staff.
“We can’t afford to think [it’s only X] about any opponent. With the team we have available, we have to be creative. We have to take every opponent with 100% focus. We can’t allow and do a little bit less.”
Burnley’s survival hopes were given a huge boost last weekend with an impressive 4-1 win against Sheffield United, leaving them just three points behind Nottingham Forest in 17th.
With just four games left of the season, Kompany highlighted the characteristics have kept the Clarets within touching distance of the teams around them.
He said: “The biggest thing is consistency, hard work and making sure to not get distracted by the outside noise has been the main factor. We haven't found the recipe for Champions League football yet, but we are improving every game.
"I know we still have a chance and that's all that matters to me, whether it's two teams, three teams or four teams still in it, it doesn't matter too much to me.”
Luis Enrique confident PSG are in perfect form with three titles up for grabs
Paris Saint-Germain can wrap up the Ligue 1 title this weekend, and with the Champions League and Coupe de France still to play for, they are in the best possible form, according to manager Luis Enrique.
PSG host relegation battling Le Havre on Saturday, and a win will secure the league title with three games still to play, leaving them to concentrate on a Champions League semi-final with Borussia Dortmund and the cup final against Lyon.
"I think we are heading into the final phase of the season in great form," said Luis Enrique.
"I wouldn't have imagined this scenario going as positively as this, but what happens in the future is what happens. I would say we are in fantastic form in every way. We have almost every player available. Our supporters are very happy.
"The club has so much ambition to achieve something else. It is a really attractive end to the season, which we are motivated for, and we will continue to fight to achieve all our targets."
'Did anyone expect us to be champions?' – Klopp not ready to assess final season at Anfield
Jurgen Klopp refused to assess his final season at Liverpool just yet, despite the campaign seemingly starting to fizzle out.
Wednesday’s 2-0 defeat to Everton in the Merseyside derby dealt a huge blow to Liverpool’s Premier League title hopes.
The Reds are now three points clear of leaders Arsenal, while they are two points behind second-placed Manchester City, who have a game in hand.
Klopp has just four matches left of his Liverpool tenure, though he is not ready to assess the final season of his stint just yet.
"I would not assess it now. I have no clue, so I am not in the mood to give up, wave the white flag kind of thing," he said ahead of Saturday’s trip to West Ham.
"I just think we have to look after ourselves; just make sure that we play better football. I said after the game 'why should a team who play like us against Everton be champions?' But the football we played before, a lot of good stuff. In January we looked invincible, with a depleted squad. Everybody went in the same direction, go for it, squeezed out results.
"So, we deserve to be where we are. I want us to use the situation, don't feel the pressure, for whatever reason it is. The boys are incredible footballers and I see it as my job to create that atmosphere where they can be the best versions of themselves – and that's obviously how I have failed.
"I don't know how it happened, but I didn't see anything of what I wanted us to be in the Everton game."
Klopp did, though, reminded the media that Liverpool have performed above expectations.
"Did anyone expect us to become champions at the start of the season? No, but it developed in this direction," Klopp added.
"Just to explain how different it is. We cannot go back to the point where we say 'yeah, well [qualifying for the Champions League] is good enough'. It is very good, but because we were so close, we are very, very disappointed in this moment in time. We cannot change that."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
West Ham – Jarrod Bowen
Bowen has scored in both of West Ham’s meetings with Liverpool so far this season – the only Hammers player to score in three different games against the Reds in a single campaign is Geoff Hurst in 1964-65.
Liverpool – Mohamed Salah
Salah has received criticism for his recent form, but he has scored 11 goals for Liverpool against West Ham in all competitions, only netting more against Manchester United (14) in his Reds career.
MATCH PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL WIN
West Ham have won just one of their last eight Premier League home games (D5 L2), beating Brentford 4-2 in February. They lost against Fulham last time out but haven’t lost consecutive home league games since a run of three in November/December 2022.
Liverpool have already beaten West Ham 3-1 in the Premier League and 5-1 in the League Cup so far this season. This is the 11th different campaign in which they have faced the Hammers 3+ times, but they have never managed to beat them three times in any of the previous 10.
Since keeping back-to-back clean sheets against Liverpool in the 2015-16 campaign, West Ham have conceded at least once in each of their last 15 against the Reds, conceding multiple goals in 12 of those games.
Liverpool have only won more Premier League games against Crystal Palace (13) than they have against West Ham (12) under Klopp.
West Ham have lost 12 of their last 14 Premier League games against Liverpool, with both exceptions in this run coming at home (1-1 in February 2019, 3-2 in November 2021).
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
West Ham – 21.7%
Liverpool – 52.5%
Draw – 25.8%
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