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• Rashford withdrawal down to rotation, insists under-fire Ten Hag

  Erik ten Hag has insisted Marcus Rashford's half-time withdrawal during Manchester United's draw with Porto was down to a need for rotation, not a statement on his performance. 

  United are still searching for their first Europa League win of the campaign, after Harry Maguire's late header salvaged a 3-3 draw in Porto on Thursday.

  After the Red Devils went 2-0 up through early goals from Rashford and Rasmus Hojlund, a strike from Pepe and a brace from Samu Omorodion had put them on the brink of another humiliating defeat.

  To cap United's frustrations, captain Bruno Fernandes was shown a red card for a second successive game after also being dismissed in Sunday's 3-0 loss to Tottenham, having never previously been sent off in any of his first 241 games for United.

  It was the decision to substitute Rashford for Alejandro Garnacho, though, that dominated post-match talk, with no United player matching Rashford's eight touches in the Porto box or three successful dribbles all game, despite his early withdrawal.

  Speaking to TNT Sports after the game, Ten Hag said: "We have to rotate. Garnacho, we didn't start him, but he had a great game not only Sunday but the whole season.

  "We go quickly with a turnaround to Villa and they have had a day longer to recover and we have an away game."

  Rashford now has 14 goals in the Europa League, moving him outright fourth in the all-time UEFA Cup/Europa League charts among English players, behind only Martin Chivers (22), Alan Shearer (21) and Jermain Defoe (19).

  Asked about the substitution again in his post-match press conference, Ten Hag added: "Yeah, but Garnacho was my best player on Sunday by far and also in many other games.

  "I think in the season, as I assess it so far, he is bringing us so far the offensive threat by creating chances, assists, also scoring.

  "Garnacho we also have to play as well and we have two very good players over that side."

  Pushed on whether the decision had anything to do with Rashford's role in Porto's first goal, which came down the England man's flank, Ten Hag said: "I have to watch it back and I think over the left side definitely we didn't defend well tonight.

  "Marcus also played a part in this but, as I say, it had to do with Garnacho and nothing against Rashy."

• The Numbers Game: Ten Hag searches for much-needed turnaround at Villa Park

  Manchester United are in desperate need of a Premier League win when they take on Aston Villa on Sunday.

  The pressure has piled on Erik ten Hag after last week's sorry 3-0 loss at Tottenham.

  United have lost three of their six league fixtures this season, winning just twice - against Southampton and Fulham - while they have lost their last two home matches in the top flight by an aggregate score of 6-0.

  Their tally of seven points is their joint-fewest after six games of any Premier League season (two wins, one draw, three losses), having made identical starts under David Moyes in 2013-14 and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in 2020-21.

  They now face another of the league's top teams when they take on Villa, who are fresh from their Champions League triumph over Bayern Munich and unbeaten in four league matches.

  United, meanwhile, were forced to settle for a 3-3 draw at Porto in the Europa League, with Harry Maguire's late leveller doing little to ease the pressure on Ten Hag.

  Here, we crunch the numbers and dive into the Opta insights ahead of Sunday's clash.

  What's expected?

  As far as home defeats in the Manchester rain go, last week's capitulation against Spurs was as bad as they get.

  Ten Hag looked on miserably as United, who were reduced to 10 men when Bruno Fernandes was sent off late in the first half (that red card has now been rescinded), were carved open time and time again.

  Spurs generated a huge expected goals (xG) figure of 4.59 on Sunday – the third-highest United have allowed a Premier League opponent since such records began in 2009. Only versus Arsenal in December 2017 (a 3-1 win) and against Man City in October 2011 (a memorable 6-1 loss at Old Trafford), have United given up a greater quality of chances in a Premier League match.

  United also saw their opponents have nine big chances – only in five previous games in Premier League history has a team had more big chances in one game (Man City v Watford 2019-20, Man Utd v Sunderland 2012-13, Arsenal v Fulham 2018-19, Arsenal v Stoke City 2015-16, Man City v Crystal Palace 2017-18 – all 10).

  Villa, on the other hand, have won both of their Champions League games without conceding a goal, and though Ipswich Town fought back to draw 2-2 with them last weekend, Unai Emery's team have enjoyed a fine start to the campaign.

  They have picked up 13 points in their opening six Premier League matches this season (four wins, one draw, one defeat), their best start to a season since 2008-09 under Martin O’Neill (also 13 points).

  As such, it's no surprise to see Opta's supercomputer makes Villa the favourites with a 42% win probability, albeit the gap is perhaps not as big as one might expect. United came out on top in 33.2% of the model's simulations, while the threat of a draw is 24.8%.

  And it is worth noting that United have a great record against the Villans.

  United have won 40 Premier League games against Villa, with only the Red Devils themselves beating an opponent more often in the competition's history (41 vs Everton).

  Villa have won just one of their last 25 Premier League home games against Manchester United (eight draws, 16 losses), with that victory coming in Emery's first game in charge of the club in November 2022 (3-1).

  Duran's hungry like a wolf

  Forgive the quite abysmal Duran Duran reference, but Villa's fans are surely going to be pulling out the 1980s hits this season if their super-sub forward Jhon Duran continues to thrive as he is right now.

  Duran scored a brilliant lob to see off Bayern in midweek, taking his tally of goals for the season to five in all competitions - all of those have come from the bench. His four league strikes have come from just 2.1 xG.

  He has also netted four league goals in his last four league appearances at Villa Park, all as a substitute.

  The 20-year-old averages a goal every 43 minutes at Villa Park in the competition, the second-best ratio by a player at a single venue (250+ minutes played there), behind Luis Suarez at Carrow Road (a goal every 38 minutes).

  Duran is averaging a goal every 39 minutes this season in the league - in comparison, 10-goal Erling Haaland averages one every 54 minutes.

  The Colombian has had just 10 shots in the league this term, so he has a 40% shot-conversion rate, the best rate in the competition of any player to score more than three times.

  With such a quality talent in reserve, Villa's attack will surely be licking their lips if they can get at United's defence in the same way Spurs did.

  Since Emery's first Premier League game in charge, only Man City (85), Liverpool (84) and Arsenal (81) have picked up more home points than Villa (74).

  Among Villa managers to take charge of five or more home top-flight matches, only European Cup-winning boss Tony Barton (70%, won 37/53) has a better home win percentage than Emery (66%, won 23/35).

  Leaking like Old Trafford's roof

  United have actually kept successive away clean sheets in the league, winning 3-0 against Southampton and drawing 0-0 with Crystal Palace. They last kept three away clean sheets in a row in March 2021.

  However, United have lost eight Premier League matches by a margin of three or more goals under Ten Hag. Since the start of 2022-23, the only current Premier League managers to suffer more 3+ goal defeats are Gary O'Neil and Sean Dyche (nine each).

  United so often leave wide open spaces in midfield and huge gaps in defence, with defenders isolated in one-v-ones. 

  Despite conceding only eight goals, United have an xG against of 11.04 so far in the league this season – that is the fifth-worst total in the league, lower than only the three promoted clubs and Brentford.

  That is despite United allowing just 74 shots, which ranks ninth in the top flight. However, United’s average per-shot xGA is 0.14, which is the second-worst in the league, after Brighton (0.17).

  Ten Hag has to find a defensive formula that works if United are to get something out of this game.

  PLAYERS TO WATCH

  Aston Villa - Ollie Watkins

  While the limelight is on Duran, it is worth mentioning that Watkins has also scored four Premier League goals this term.

  Watkins has been involved in 55 goals in 67 Premier League appearances under Emery for Aston Villa (36 goals, 19 assists), with only Erling Haaland (65) and Mohamed Salah (60) scoring or assisting more goals in that time. The former Brentford attacker is looking to score in four games in a row for the first time since April 2023.

  Manchester United - Bruno Fernandes

  United will be delighted Fernandes will be available for this game. He was set to miss just his eighth match for the club since his debut in February 2020, with the Red Devils winless in their last four (one draw, three losses) and failing to score in their last three without the Portuguese international in the team.

  Fernandes has had 17 shots in the Premier League this season, but is yet to score.

  That tally of shots is the most any player who is yet to score this season has had across the entirety of Europe's top five leagues this season.

• 'Judge us at the end of the season' - Ten Hag adamant Man Utd will improve

  Erik ten Hag does not believe Manchester United should be judged too harshly despite their tough start to the season, after snatching a last-gasp draw with Porto.

  Marcus Rashford and Rasmus Hojlund gave the Red Devils a quickfire lead in Portugal, before Pepe and a double from Samu Omorodion looked to have sealed a turnaround.

  Bruno Fernandes was then sent off for the second game in a row, but Harry Maguire came off the bench to ensure United left with a point in the Europa League after a 3-3 draw.

  It was their second consecutive draw in the competition, having given up a lead in both, leaving them 21st in the league table.

  In fact, United are winless in their last five matches in European competitions (D3 L2) despite leading by 2+ goals in three of them. 

  Ten Hag continues to come under pressure, with his team now winless in four in all competitions, but he believes the squad have what it takes to turn things around.

  "We will get there," he told TNT Sports. "Don't judge us in this moment, judge us at the end of the season.

  "We are in the process, we will improve. We have had two seasons where we have reached finals, we will continue and fight.

  "You see the spirit and the connection between the staff and the team. The players are together, they have a strong spirit, and they want to achieve. We have a good mentality but in some defending parts we have to step up."

  Maguire came on as a 78th-minute substitute and scored his first goal of the season, nodding in from Christian Eriksen's corner in the 91st minute.

  The former United captain backed the manager to cope with the added noise surrounding his job once again.

  "I've played for this club for six years; I know how it works. When you go on a bad spell players come under pressure and also the manager does," Maguire said.

  "He's experienced enough and been at this club long enough, so I'm sure he knows how to deal with it. It's part of the privilege you have playing for this club."