There is a thrilling three-horse race for the Premier League title as we approach the run-in, but there is also another tussle on the cards.
The Golden Boot is up for grabs, with Erling Haaland having not quite hit the same heights as he did last season, when he broke the Premier League record for goals, with 36.
Manchester City star Haaland is, as it stands, level with his former club-mate Cole Palmer at the top of the competition’s scoring charts, with 20 goals apiece.
Palmer, who will go up against his old club in the FA Cup semi-finals this weekend, moved way up in the charts after he netted four times in Chelsea’s 6-0 rout of Everton on Monday.
But with Palmer and Haaland in FA Cup action, there are plenty of other Golden Boot candidates looking to take advantage and nudge themselves to the front of the pack.
Using Opta data, we assess the numbers behind the players vying for this individual accolade.
Erling Haaland (20)
Sure, Haaland might not quite have scaled the same heights as last season, but he has still scored 20 goals in 26 league games, scoring a goal every 109 minutes on average.
However, the Norwegian has actually underperformed his expected goals (xG) of 23.7 – that 3.7 differential is actually the biggest xG underperformance of any player on this list.
What about Haaland’s expected goals on target (xGOT)? That metric can be used to measure the quality of a player’s finishing, and Haaland’s xGOT of 20.3 suggests the 23-year-old is about on track based on where he has been placing his shots.
Haaland has also chipped in with five assists, giving him an overall goal contributions tally of 25. He has created 28 goalscoring chances for team-mates across the campaign.
Of course, Haaland is a penalty box poacher – 16 of his goals have come from inside the area, while 14 of them have come with his stronger left foot.
Cole Palmer (20)
Palmer has stolen the show this season for Chelsea, and is arguably the Blues’ driving force behind their push for European football.
Having signed from City last summer, Palmer has made an instant impact despite only playing 27 times – he averages a goal every 103 minutes, which is better than any of the other candidates featured here.
He scored a perfect hat-trick in the first half of the demolition of Everton, before adding a fourth from the penalty spot after the break – that was Palmer’s ninth successfully converted spot-kick in the league this term.
Unlike Haaland, Palmer has overperformed his xG (15), with his non-penalty xG coming in at 7.9, while also proving his creative talents with nine assists from 53 chances created, which ranks behind only Mohamed Salah (60) of players featured here.
Those 29 goal contributions are matched by only one other Premier League player…
Ollie Watkins (19)
One goal behind Palmer and Haaland, and someone who will be looking to get ahead when Aston Villa face Bournemouth on Sunday, is England international Watkins.
A deft chip in Villa’s brilliant 2-0 win over Arsenal last time out brought up Watkins’ 19th top-flight goal of the campaign – he is now the club’s joint-leading scorer in a single season in the Premier League, matching Christian Benteke (2012-13).
What separates Watkins from Palmer and Haaland is his minutes per goal ratio – Watkins has netted every 147 minutes on average, which is 44 minutes worse off than Palmer and 38 than Haaland.
However, with 10 assists, the former Brentford forward leads the goal contributions charts along with Palmer. Interestingly, however, Watkins’ assists have come from an expected assists (xA) of just 3.6, suggesting he has been the benefactor of some particularly excellent finishing from his Villa team-mates.
A goal against Bournemouth on Sunday would see Watkins become just the third English player to score 20+ goals and assist 10+ goals in a 38-game season, along with Frank Lampard in 2009-10 (22 goals, 14 assists) and Harry Kane in 2020-21 (23 goals, 14 assists)
Watkins has proved to be a deadly finisher under Unai Emery, though the trick for opposing defences could be to prevent him getting space in the area to begin with, given that all 19 of his goals have come from inside the box. Obviously, that is easier said than done.
Mohamed Salah (17)
Liverpool will be hoping to bounce back from their damaging defeat to Crystal Palace last week when they take on Fulham on Sunday, and key to the Reds’ clinching success in Jurgen Klopp’s farewell tour will surely be the form of Salah.
Since sustaining an injury at the Africa Cup of Nations, Salah has not quite hit top form, but he has still netted 17 goals across 26 league appearances this term, though five of those have been penalties.
With an xGOT of 18.4, Salah can point to some above average goalkeeping as a reason for a small underperformance.
Creatively, Salah has been excellent, providing nine assists and crafting 60 opportunities, but the Reds will need him at his very best in the run-in.
Alexander Isak (17)
Isak was at the double in Newcastle United’s 4-0 thrashing of Tottenham last time out. He has now scored 12 goals in as many Premier League appearances at St James’ Park this season.
His opener against Spurs saw him become the fourth player to score in six consecutive Premier League home matches for Newcastle, with only Andrew Cole (eight) and Alan Shearer (15) having longer such runs, with Isak now level with Les Ferdinand’s best such run. The only other Swede to have netted as many Premier League goals in a single campaign as Isak has this term is the great Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who scored 17 times for Manchester United in 2016-17.
Only Palmer has a better minutes per goal ratio than Isak (104) of the players on this list, while he has overperformed his xG by 1.1.
Isak has not provided quite as much creatively as others on this list, providing just one assist, but his 28.3 per cent shot conversion rate tops this list by some distance, with Palmer (24.4) next best.
Dominic Solanke (17)
Another player on 17 goals, and the final selection here, is Bournemouth talisman Solanke.
His 18.1 per cent shot conversion rate may short fall of the other stars on this list, but Solanke is having a fantastic season, having become Bournemouth’s top Premier League goalscorer in a single campaign, surpassing Joshua King’s tally of 16 from the 2016-17 season.
Only one of Solanke’s strikes has come from the spot, with the 26-year-old outperforming his 15.7 non-penalty xG, though his minutes per goal ratio of 167 is quite a stark drop-off from most of his Golden Boot rivals.
The Chasing Pack
Former Golden Boot winner Son Heung-min (15), Jarrod Bowen (15), Bukayo Saka (14) and Phil Foden (14) are all well in the hunt.
The fact that 10 players are within six goals of each other shows just how tight this Golden Boot race is shaping up to be, though the chasing pack are running out of time if they are to make a late push for the award.
Vlaar: Slot is the right fit for Liverpool
Former Dutch defender Ron Vlaar believes that Arne Slot will not need time to adapt to the Premier League when he takes over as Liverpool manager.
It was reported last week that Feyenoord and Liverpool had reached an agreement in principle for Slot to take over from Jurgen Klopp next season.
The Dutchman led Feyenoord to their second Eredivisie title last season after taking over the club in 2021, and his attacking style of play has been likened to that of Klopp’s.
Vlaar, who played under Slot at AZ Alkmaar, is confident that his former coach will not take long to settle in on Merseyside.
“He could, but I hope not. It's quite similar to what they already have now, but it's a new coach, so they will always change some things,” he told Stats Perform.
“Hopefully it's more in the details. And I think he will show that with videos of how he wants to play for other teams. When he coached me, he used Liverpool as an example.
“I don’t know what other examples he’ll use now he’s the coach of Liverpool. I think the players are smart enough to recognise it. They have to build on some trust with each other. If he can manage that, and he can do that, then I think it will all be fine.”
Klopp, who announced he would be leaving Liverpool after nearly nine years at the club in January, has given his backing to Slot’s appointment at the club, stating that he likes his attacking style of play.
Among teams in the top ten European leagues, only Benfica, Cercle Brugge and Man City have won possession in the final third more often per game than Feyenoord (6.87) this season. Equally, only Bayern Munich and PSV have a higher xG than Feyenoord in their domestic leagues this season (82.95).
Vlaar also recognises the similarity in both coaches’ styles, saying: “I played under Arne at AZ Alkmaar, and we were high up on the pitch, pressing high, standing on halfway line so the pressure needs to be very good then from the forwards as well.
“I think that's quite similar if you look to Liverpool nowadays. So I think they’re comparable coaches. Arne Slot hasn’t achieved what Jurgen Klopp has achieved so far, but the club showed that giving Klopp some time paid off. So, I hope Arne can build on that.”
Twenty players have played in ten or more games in the Eredivisie for Feyenoord this season, with only four of them over the age of twenty-six, and Slot has been praised for his track record of improving young talent and man-management style.
“He's very open and clear. So I think everyone knows what they’re getting. It's really straightforward and he's open about it. I think that's a good thing,” Vlaar added.
“Dedicated, energetic, and he tries to help the team as much as possible. He will coach players if needed. And I think that's what he is, how he's like.
“I'm really happy for him because this is a massive club, one of the biggest clubs in the world. And that's a big step forward for him, coming from Feyenoord and going to Liverpool.”
Khadija 'Bunny' Shaw undergoes successful surgery for broken foot
Manchester City Women's striker Khadija 'Bunny' Shaw has revealed she underwent surgery for a broken foot sustained during the Women's Super League match against West Ham United. Shaw, who scored twice in the 5-0 victory over West Ham, had to be substituted at half-time after picking up the injury just before the interval.
The confirmation of Shaw's injury and surgery came via Manchester City, with the club announcing that the Jamaican forward suffered the foot injury late in the first half at the Joie Stadium. As a result of this injury, Shaw will miss Manchester City Women's final three matches of the Barclays Women’s Super League season as she begins her recovery process.
Despite the setback, Shaw remains a top contender for the league’s Golden Boot, having scored an impressive 21 goals in just 18 WSL appearances. In March 2024, she also became Manchester City Women's record goal scorer.
Taking to Instagram, Shaw expressed her gratitude for the support and well-wishes received following her surgery:
"Gutted to know I suffered a broken foot in the game against West Ham but grateful the surgery went well. The greatest stories are those who defy all odds. Thanks to everyone for the heartwarming well wishes on my road to recovery. I appreciate every single one. I will continue working hard off the pitch during my rehab, and I can’t wait to be back doing what I love." ?
Shaw's determination and positive outlook highlight her commitment to returning stronger and continuing her impactful contributions both on and off the pitch. Her recovery journey will undoubtedly be closely followed by fans eagerly awaiting her return to action.
Borussia Dortmund receive injury boosts ahead of Champions League semi-final
Borussia Dortmund midfielder Marcel Sabitzer and forward Donyell Malen are likely to be fit in time for Wednesday's Champions League semi-final first leg at home against Paris Saint-Germain, coach Edin Terzic said on Tuesday.
Dortmund will also have Emre Can and Ian Maatsen back from suspension, while Sabitzer, who was out ill for several days, and Dutch international Malen, recovering from an injury picked up during the March international break, have returned to training.
"Marcel and Donyell both took part in training. We expect that they will be at our disposal tomorrow," said Terzic.
"Marcel is feeling better, and we need him in his form from before his illness tomorrow."
Dortmund have struggled in the league this season and on Saturday suffered a crushing 4-1 loss to direct rivals RB Leipzig, who held on to fourth place, leaving them in fifth with three matches remaining.
The top four teams qualify for the Champions League group stage next season.
Germany is likely to earn a fifth spot as one of the top two in UEFA's coefficient table depending on the remaining results in European competition this season.
Dortmund's deep Champions League run this season, however, has kept fans hopeful of some silverware.
The sides also met in the group stage, with the French side winning 2-0 in Paris before a 1-1 draw in Dortmund.
"You could sense in the return leg that we had learned the lessons from the first game," Terzic said.
"Now PSG look to be at their very peak this season with only one defeat in 2024 and a good run of results. We will have to show an improved performance from that in Dortmund."
"We are confident that will show it tomorrow and next week in Paris. The clear goal is to gain a small advantage after the game tomorrow. We know we have to play at least 180 minutes at the highest level to have any shot at our dream."
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