While the Premier League title race unfolds, there is another tussle playing out at the bottom.
And this weekend, six of the teams at the wrong end of the table fight it out against each other.
On Saturday, Luton Town will hope to propel themselves out of the relegation zone by overcoming Brentford at Kenilworth Road, though the 15th-placed Bees will know that another win could all but end their worries of dropping down to the Championship.
At the same time, the two bottom clubs go head-to-head at Bramall Lane, with Sheffield United hosting Burnley. Both the Blades and the Clarets look likely to go down, though if either are to survive, then taking three points from this one is a must.
Sunday’s early game is a huge one at Goodison Park, as Everton and Nottingham Forest – both impacted by points deductions for breaches of Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) – face off. The Toffees are 16th, a point better off than the Tricky Trees, but Sean Dyche’s team are on a dismal run of just one win in 15 league matches.
Crystal Palace are perhaps not out of the woods just yet, though after their stunning win at Anfield last time out, the Eagles will hope to carry on the momentum when they face West Ham.
And using Opta data, we can assess the likelihood of the Premier League relegation scrap, as well as the underlying metrics behind each of these teams.
Let’s work from the top down.
Palace, after that shock 1-0 win over Liverpool, are now not considered to be relegation candidates by Opta’s predictive model, which gives them a 46.5 per cent chance of staying right where they are in 14th.
The Eagles are six points clear of Everton in 17th, and while not mathematically safe, Oliver Glasner’s team are certainly within touching distance.
It is worth noting, though, that according to the Opta power rankings, Palace have the most difficult run-in of all these seven teams, with the average rating of their remaining opponents coming in at 87.9. Like the Toffees and Sheffield United, Palace have six matches left to play, though they do not play any of the teams below them in that run.
Next come Brentford. The Bees have five games remaining but, with 33 points, are likely just a win away from tying up their safety, and they will be hoping that comes against Luton (as well Everton and Forest fans).
According to Opta’s model, Brentford have the second-easiest fixture list of any team in the league, with their average opponent rating of 85.1 higher only than Newcastle United’s (84.1).
The Bees do, though, face a trip to Everton after they head to Luton, so should the worst occur and they lose those matches, then Thomas Frank’s team could find themselves firmly back in danger. As it stands, Brentford’s chances of going down are a meagre 0.3 per cent.
Brentford are the second-worst expected goals underperformers in the competition this season, having scored six fewer goals than would have been anticipated based on the quality of opportunities they have created, suggesting that with better finishing, and a bit more luck, they would likely be clear of danger already.
And if that can be said for Brentford, then it can be emphatically repeated for 16th-placed Everton.
Even factoring in the eight points that have been taken off them this term, Everton – who were thrashed 6-0 by Chelsea on Monday – could have been out of danger had they simply come close to matching their xG. They are by far the Premier League’s biggest underperformers when it comes to that metric – Dyche’s side have scored 32 goals (which ranks 19th in the league) from an xG of 48, a whopping underperformance of 16.
Sunday’s clash with Forest kick-starts a huge week of home games for the Toffees, with a Merseyside derby against Liverpool following on April 24, before Brentford then visit Goodison Park.
With Forest, Brentford, Luton and Sheffield United among their final four fixtures, Everton should still have some confidence – they have taken seven points off those sides already this term, and a repeat of that could be enough, though a final-day away outing at Arsenal is ominous, given the Toffees have shipped nine goals in their last two visits to Emirates Stadium. Opta predicts they will stay up, but Everton do have an 8.9 per cent chance of slipping out of the top tier for the first time in over 70 years.
Below them, Forest will no doubt have been buoyed by Everton’s sorry performance at Stamford Bridge. However, Nuno Espirito Santo’s team do have a rather sizeable 29.9 per cent chance of going down, so a victory at Goodison Park could be vital.
Especially considering Forest’s next fixture comes against Manchester City, albeit it is at home, where they also face Chelsea in between away clashes with Sheffield United and Burnley.
Perhaps worrying for Forest, however, is that in their three matches against Everton, the Blades and Burnley this term, they have taken only four points. Interestingly, while Forest have shipped 58 goals – a figure which betters only the bottom three, they have been unfortunate to concede so many based on their expected goals against (xGA), which is actually the sixth best in the league at 47.4.
Then we have Luton. The Hatters have been one of the stories of the season, and despite their small budget have a brilliant chance of survival.
That being said, Opta’s predictive model does anticipate they will go down, with Rob Edwards’ side having a 54.3 per cent chance of finishing where they are in 18th, with their chances of finishing in 17th being 29.6 per cent.
Victory over Brentford, who beat them 3-1 earlier in the campaign, would see Luton move out of the bottom three, though, and with five games left, they do have what is considered a relatively easy run-in when it comes to the average rating of those teams they are going up against, at 85.4.
That being said, Luton’s defensive record this season is awful. The Hatters have shipped 70 goals from an xGA of 69.7. They will need to tighten up if they are to complete the great escape.
What about the bottom two?
Well, they are perhaps down and out. After visiting South Yorkshire on Saturday, Vincent Kompany’s Burnley team have to go to Old Trafford and the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium either side of hosting Newcastle, and Opta’s predictive model suggests they will go down – they have just a 1.6 per cent chance of survival.
There is an even smaller chance of the Blades, who are 20th, staying up, at just 0.2 per cent.
Chris Wilder’s team are the team with the fewest goals scored in the top flight, at 30, while they have conceded 84 – the worst in the division, and while victory over the Clarets would provide a morale-boost, the Blades seemed destined for the Championship.
Vlaar: Slot is the right fit for Liverpool
Former Dutch defender Ron Vlaar believes that Arne Slot will not need time to adapt to the Premier League when he takes over as Liverpool manager.
It was reported last week that Feyenoord and Liverpool had reached an agreement in principle for Slot to take over from Jurgen Klopp next season.
The Dutchman led Feyenoord to their second Eredivisie title last season after taking over the club in 2021, and his attacking style of play has been likened to that of Klopp’s.
Vlaar, who played under Slot at AZ Alkmaar, is confident that his former coach will not take long to settle in on Merseyside.
“He could, but I hope not. It's quite similar to what they already have now, but it's a new coach, so they will always change some things,” he told Stats Perform.
“Hopefully it's more in the details. And I think he will show that with videos of how he wants to play for other teams. When he coached me, he used Liverpool as an example.
“I don’t know what other examples he’ll use now he’s the coach of Liverpool. I think the players are smart enough to recognise it. They have to build on some trust with each other. If he can manage that, and he can do that, then I think it will all be fine.”
Klopp, who announced he would be leaving Liverpool after nearly nine years at the club in January, has given his backing to Slot’s appointment at the club, stating that he likes his attacking style of play.
Among teams in the top ten European leagues, only Benfica, Cercle Brugge and Man City have won possession in the final third more often per game than Feyenoord (6.87) this season. Equally, only Bayern Munich and PSV have a higher xG than Feyenoord in their domestic leagues this season (82.95).
Vlaar also recognises the similarity in both coaches’ styles, saying: “I played under Arne at AZ Alkmaar, and we were high up on the pitch, pressing high, standing on halfway line so the pressure needs to be very good then from the forwards as well.
“I think that's quite similar if you look to Liverpool nowadays. So I think they’re comparable coaches. Arne Slot hasn’t achieved what Jurgen Klopp has achieved so far, but the club showed that giving Klopp some time paid off. So, I hope Arne can build on that.”
Twenty players have played in ten or more games in the Eredivisie for Feyenoord this season, with only four of them over the age of twenty-six, and Slot has been praised for his track record of improving young talent and man-management style.
“He's very open and clear. So I think everyone knows what they’re getting. It's really straightforward and he's open about it. I think that's a good thing,” Vlaar added.
“Dedicated, energetic, and he tries to help the team as much as possible. He will coach players if needed. And I think that's what he is, how he's like.
“I'm really happy for him because this is a massive club, one of the biggest clubs in the world. And that's a big step forward for him, coming from Feyenoord and going to Liverpool.”
Khadija 'Bunny' Shaw undergoes successful surgery for broken foot
Manchester City Women's striker Khadija 'Bunny' Shaw has revealed she underwent surgery for a broken foot sustained during the Women's Super League match against West Ham United. Shaw, who scored twice in the 5-0 victory over West Ham, had to be substituted at half-time after picking up the injury just before the interval.
The confirmation of Shaw's injury and surgery came via Manchester City, with the club announcing that the Jamaican forward suffered the foot injury late in the first half at the Joie Stadium. As a result of this injury, Shaw will miss Manchester City Women's final three matches of the Barclays Women’s Super League season as she begins her recovery process.
Despite the setback, Shaw remains a top contender for the league’s Golden Boot, having scored an impressive 21 goals in just 18 WSL appearances. In March 2024, she also became Manchester City Women's record goal scorer.
Taking to Instagram, Shaw expressed her gratitude for the support and well-wishes received following her surgery:
"Gutted to know I suffered a broken foot in the game against West Ham but grateful the surgery went well. The greatest stories are those who defy all odds. Thanks to everyone for the heartwarming well wishes on my road to recovery. I appreciate every single one. I will continue working hard off the pitch during my rehab, and I can’t wait to be back doing what I love." ?
Shaw's determination and positive outlook highlight her commitment to returning stronger and continuing her impactful contributions both on and off the pitch. Her recovery journey will undoubtedly be closely followed by fans eagerly awaiting her return to action.
Borussia Dortmund receive injury boosts ahead of Champions League semi-final
Borussia Dortmund midfielder Marcel Sabitzer and forward Donyell Malen are likely to be fit in time for Wednesday's Champions League semi-final first leg at home against Paris Saint-Germain, coach Edin Terzic said on Tuesday.
Dortmund will also have Emre Can and Ian Maatsen back from suspension, while Sabitzer, who was out ill for several days, and Dutch international Malen, recovering from an injury picked up during the March international break, have returned to training.
"Marcel and Donyell both took part in training. We expect that they will be at our disposal tomorrow," said Terzic.
"Marcel is feeling better, and we need him in his form from before his illness tomorrow."
Dortmund have struggled in the league this season and on Saturday suffered a crushing 4-1 loss to direct rivals RB Leipzig, who held on to fourth place, leaving them in fifth with three matches remaining.
The top four teams qualify for the Champions League group stage next season.
Germany is likely to earn a fifth spot as one of the top two in UEFA's coefficient table depending on the remaining results in European competition this season.
Dortmund's deep Champions League run this season, however, has kept fans hopeful of some silverware.
The sides also met in the group stage, with the French side winning 2-0 in Paris before a 1-1 draw in Dortmund.
"You could sense in the return leg that we had learned the lessons from the first game," Terzic said.
"Now PSG look to be at their very peak this season with only one defeat in 2024 and a good run of results. We will have to show an improved performance from that in Dortmund."
"We are confident that will show it tomorrow and next week in Paris. The clear goal is to gain a small advantage after the game tomorrow. We know we have to play at least 180 minutes at the highest level to have any shot at our dream."
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