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• ‘No regrets’ says Pep Guardiola after Manchester City loss in Champions League

  Pep Guardiola insisted there were no regrets after Manchester City’s bid to retain their Champions League crown ended in a heartbreaking penalty shoot-out loss to Real Madrid.

  The holders were beaten 4-3 on spot-kicks by the Spanish giants after their quarter-final tie ended 4-4 on aggregate – 1-1 on the night – despite a dominant display from Guardiola’s side in the second leg at the Etihad Stadium.

  City fell behind early to a Rodrygo goal but created a host of chances as they sought to regain control of the tie but Kevin De Bruyne’s 76th-minute equaliser was their only reward.

  City manager Guardiola said: “I would have preferred to win but congratulations to Real Madrid, they defended so deep with incredible solidarity and we did everything.

  “I don’t have any regrets about what we have done. Always we try to create more chances and concede less, because we believe that helps you to win and we did everything.

  “We played exceptionally in all departments and unfortunately we could not win.”

  Bernardo Silva and Mateo Kovacic both missed in the shoot-out, with the former’s effort proving a particularly comfortable save for Andriy Lunin.

  Guardiola refused to blame the Portuguese for his failure to register.

  He said: “Bernardo asked to take it, he’s a reliable player and decided to shoot in that way. What a game he had played. It happens.”

  Guardiola also had no complaints about Real’s tactics, with the Spanish side forced to sit back and defend deep for much of the game.

  “I don’t judge,” he said. “I’m not here to do this. It’s football. In this competition, that’s the way football happens.”

  City’s loss also ended their hopes of winning a second successive treble and they must now pick themselves up for Saturday’s FA Cup semi-final against Chelsea at Wembley.

  Guardiola said: “Now we will rest and on Friday we travel to London to play the game.

  “We will see how people will react. Of course the recovery is easier when winning, rather than losing, but it is the semi-final of the FA Cup and we will try to compete as much as possible.”

  Real manager Carlo Ancelotti admitted the strength of City had forced them to soak up pressure and look to take the tie on penalties.

  The veteran Italian said: “We defended really, really well. This was about survival. Madrid is a club based on always fighting to stay in situations where there seems to be no way out – but we always find a way.

  “By the time the penalty shoot-out came, we were totally convinced we’d go through.

  “This is about the only way you can come to City and win. You work, sacrifice and win however you can.”

• Penalty heartache for Manchester City as Real Madrid end Champions League dream

  Manchester City’s dreams of retaining the Champions League were shattered after a dramatic penalty shoot-out loss to Real Madrid.

  Bernardo Silva and Mateo Kovacic both missed from the spot as City were beaten 4-3 on penalties after their pulsating quarter-final tie ended 4-4 on aggregate.

  Rodrygo had given Real an early lead in the second leg at the Etihad Stadium but City otherwise dominated and, after creating a host of chances, finally made it 1-1 on the night through Kevin De Bruyne in the 76th minute.

  De Bruyne spurned a good chance to win the tie in normal time and Erling Haaland had earlier hit the crossbar but it was the competition’s record 14-time winners who ultimately prevailed.

  It was harsh on City, who had immediately set out their stall to dominate possession.

  Despite their control, however, the hosts looked vulnerable to the counter-attack and were caught out after 12 minutes.

  Jude Bellingham brilliantly controlled a high ball with the outside of his foot and found Federico Valverde, who in turn fed Vinicius Junior in the box.

  Vinicius pulled back for Rodrgyo and, although Ederson did well to beat out his powerful first-time shot, he could do nothing to deny his fellow Brazilian on the rebound.

  City stepped up the tempo in response and created a host of chances.

  Haaland sent a header against the bar and Silva missed the rebound before De Bruyne forced Andriy Lunin to save from 25 yards.

  Jack Grealish twice went close with two efforts deflected wide and De Bruyne had two attempts on goal direct from corners, with Lunin palming both over.

  Phil Foden also missed the target as City kept up the pressure but Josko Gvardiol needed to block a Dani Carvajal shot to prevent Real snatching a second on the break.

  City started the second half strongly and Nacho needed to scramble clear off the line with Haaland lurking after a mix-up in the Real box.

  Yet Foden could only manage a weak shot at Lunin and there were signs of frustration as the game passed the hour mark with Pep Guardiola trying to rouse the crowd.

  City pressed on with Grealish shooting at Lunin and their persistence finally paid off as Antonio Rudiger could only half-clear a cross from substitute Jeremy Doku and De Bruyne clipped home the loose ball.

  With the crowd energised, City stepped on the accelerator and De Bruyne sent a dipping shot narrowly over before skying an even better chance.

  City kept the pressure on until the end of normal time but could not find a way through Real’s stubborn defence.

  Haaland was sacrificed for extra time and Foden spurned a good chance when he mis-kicked in front of goal.

  Real attacks remained rare but Kyle Walker, underlining an impressive return after injury, raced back to prevent Vinicius escaping and Rudiger put a chance over.

  It came down to penalties and, although Ederson lifted City by saving from Luka Modric, Lunin denied both Silva and Kovacic to send Real through.

• Premier League relegation battle: Crucial weekend in the scrap for survival

  While the Premier League title race unfolds, there is another tussle playing out at the bottom.

  And this weekend, six of the teams at the wrong end of the table fight it out against each other.

  On Saturday, Luton Town will hope to propel themselves out of the relegation zone by overcoming Brentford at Kenilworth Road, though the 15th-placed Bees will know that another win could all but end their worries of dropping down to the Championship.

  At the same time, the two bottom clubs go head-to-head at Bramall Lane, with Sheffield United hosting Burnley. Both the Blades and the Clarets look likely to go down, though if either are to survive, then taking three points from this one is a must.

  Sunday’s early game is a huge one at Goodison Park, as Everton and Nottingham Forest – both impacted by points deductions for breaches of Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) – face off. The Toffees are 16th, a point better off than the Tricky Trees, but Sean Dyche’s team are on a dismal run of just one win in 15 league matches.

  Crystal Palace are perhaps not out of the woods just yet, though after their stunning win at Anfield last time out, the Eagles will hope to carry on the momentum when they face West Ham.

  And using Opta data, we can assess the likelihood of the Premier League relegation scrap, as well as the underlying metrics behind each of these teams.

   

  Let’s work from the top down.

  Palace, after that shock 1-0 win over Liverpool, are now not considered to be relegation candidates by Opta’s predictive model, which gives them a 46.5 per cent chance of staying right where they are in 14th.

  The Eagles are six points clear of Everton in 17th, and while not mathematically safe, Oliver Glasner’s team are certainly within touching distance.

  It is worth noting, though, that according to the Opta power rankings, Palace have the most difficult run-in of all these seven teams, with the average rating of their remaining opponents coming in at 87.9. Like the Toffees and Sheffield United, Palace have six matches left to play, though they do not play any of the teams below them in that run.

  Next come Brentford. The Bees have five games remaining but, with 33 points, are likely just a win away from tying up their safety, and they will be hoping that comes against Luton (as well Everton and Forest fans).

  According to Opta’s model, Brentford have the second-easiest fixture list of any team in the league, with their average opponent rating of 85.1 higher only than Newcastle United’s (84.1).

  The Bees do, though, face a trip to Everton after they head to Luton, so should the worst occur and they lose those matches, then Thomas Frank’s team could find themselves firmly back in danger. As it stands, Brentford’s chances of going down are a meagre 0.3 per cent.

  Brentford are the second-worst expected goals underperformers in the competition this season, having scored six fewer goals than would have been anticipated based on the quality of opportunities they have created, suggesting that with better finishing, and a bit more luck, they would likely be clear of danger already.

  And if that can be said for Brentford, then it can be emphatically repeated for 16th-placed Everton.

   

  Even factoring in the eight points that have been taken off them this term, Everton – who were thrashed 6-0 by Chelsea on Monday – could have been out of danger had they simply come close to matching their xG. They are by far the Premier League’s biggest underperformers when it comes to that metric – Dyche’s side have scored 32 goals (which ranks 19th in the league) from an xG of 48, a whopping underperformance of 16.

  Sunday’s clash with Forest kick-starts a huge week of home games for the Toffees, with a Merseyside derby against Liverpool following on April 24, before Brentford then visit Goodison Park.

  With Forest, Brentford, Luton and Sheffield United among their final four fixtures, Everton should still have some confidence – they have taken seven points off those sides already this term, and a repeat of that could be enough, though a final-day away outing at Arsenal is ominous, given the Toffees have shipped nine goals in their last two visits to Emirates Stadium. Opta predicts they will stay up, but Everton do have an 8.9 per cent chance of slipping out of the top tier for the first time in over 70 years.

  Below them, Forest will no doubt have been buoyed by Everton’s sorry performance at Stamford Bridge. However, Nuno Espirito Santo’s team do have a rather sizeable 29.9 per cent chance of going down, so a victory at Goodison Park could be vital.

  Especially considering Forest’s next fixture comes against Manchester City, albeit it is at home, where they also face Chelsea in between away clashes with Sheffield United and Burnley.

  Perhaps worrying for Forest, however, is that in their three matches against Everton, the Blades and Burnley this term, they have taken only four points. Interestingly, while Forest have shipped 58 goals – a figure which betters only the bottom three, they have been unfortunate to concede so many based on their expected goals against (xGA), which is actually the sixth best in the league at 47.4.

  Then we have Luton. The Hatters have been one of the stories of the season, and despite their small budget have a brilliant chance of survival.

  That being said, Opta’s predictive model does anticipate they will go down, with Rob Edwards’ side having a 54.3 per cent chance of finishing where they are in 18th, with their chances of finishing in 17th being 29.6 per cent.

  Victory over Brentford, who beat them 3-1 earlier in the campaign, would see Luton move out of the bottom three, though, and with five games left, they do have what is considered a relatively easy run-in when it comes to the average rating of those teams they are going up against, at 85.4.

  That being said, Luton’s defensive record this season is awful. The Hatters have shipped 70 goals from an xGA of 69.7. They will need to tighten up if they are to complete the great escape.

   

  What about the bottom two?

  Well, they are perhaps down and out. After visiting South Yorkshire on Saturday, Vincent Kompany’s Burnley team have to go to Old Trafford and the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium either side of hosting Newcastle, and Opta’s predictive model suggests they will go down – they have just a 1.6 per cent chance of survival.

  There is an even smaller chance of the Blades, who are 20th, staying up, at just 0.2 per cent.

  Chris Wilder’s team are the team with the fewest goals scored in the top flight, at 30, while they have conceded 84 – the worst in the division, and while victory over the Clarets would provide a morale-boost, the Blades seemed destined for the Championship.