EPL

Man City's title tussle with Liverpool, the fight for fourth and the relegation scrap – Stats Perform AI predicts the Premier League

By Sports Desk April 30, 2022

As the 2021-22 Premier League season enters its final weeks, plenty remains for the taking – not least the thrilling title race between Liverpool and reigning champions Manchester City.

Both teams are in imperious form and, while City lead the way by a single point heading into the weekend, one slip might be all it takes.

Chelsea seem relatively secure in third place, but behind them the battle for the final Champions League spot is raging on. Just two points separate north London rivals Arsenal and Tottenham, who meet in a potentially decisive derby in mid-May. 

Manchester United have played two games more than those two sides and look like they will have to settle for sixth, assuming they can fend off West Ham.

At the bottom, Everton are in real danger of losing their Premier League status for the first time but will hold out hope in their dogfight against Burnley and Leeds United, though Watford and Norwich City appear destined for the drop.

But just how will it all unfold? Well, using the Stats Perform League Prediction Model, we can try and forecast the final standings.

Created by Stats Perform AI using Opta data, the model has analysed the division to assign percentages to potential outcomes for each club.

The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) based on teams' attacking and defensive qualities, which considers four years' worth of results, with weighting based on recency and the quality of opposition. The rest of the matches are then simulated 10,000 times to calculate the likelihood of each outcome.

Let's take a look...

PEP PIPS KLOPP TO THE POST... AGAIN

City won the Premier League title by a margin of just one point in the 2018-19 campaign. The gap has been much wider over the past two seasons, with Liverpool triumphing in 2020 and City winning last year.

But just like in 2019, the model suggests Liverpool will fall just short once again, with City predicted to stay on top. It gives Pep Guardiola's team a 66 per cent chance of winning their fourth title in five seasons, with the Reds given a 34 per cent chance.

Neither side are predicted to drop out of the top two – that seems a safe bet. Liverpool have a tough trip to in-form Newcastle United on Saturday, while City face Leeds United.

Newcastle will then have the chance to have another say in the title race when they visit City on May 8, with trips to Wolves and West Ham coming for the leaders before they round off their domestic season against Steven Gerrard's Aston Villa. 

Liverpool, who also face Villa along with Spurs, Southampton and Wolves, will be wanting a favour from their club great on the last day of the season if they are to prove the model wrong.

GUNNERS CLINCH CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PLACE

Chelsea, according to the model, have a 98.7 chance of staying in third place, and are certain to be playing in UEFA's elite competition next season.

Below them, it is predicted that Arsenal will just nip into the top four rather than Spurs. Mikel Arteta's team have a 75.2 per cent chance of qualifying for the Champions League, and just 24.8 of finishing in a Europa League place.

While Stats Perform AI only gives Arsenal a minuscule opportunity of taking third off Chelsea, they have a 73.9 per cent chance of securing fourth place and featuring in the Champions League for the first time since 2016-17.

It seems likely that much will be decided on May 12, when Spurs welcome Arsenal to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Antonio Conte's team are predicted to finish fifth (72.4 per cent), and only have a 24.7 per cent likelihood of clinching fourth.

United are forecast to finish sixth (65 per cent), albeit there is the possibility they could even end 2021-22 in seventh. That position, however, seems set to be filled by West Ham, who have to win against Eintracht Frankfurt next week to keep their hopes of a Europa League triumph alive – success in that competition would take them into the Champions League, regardless of where they finish domestically.

TOFFEES CHAMPIONSHIP-BOUND

It has been a dismal season for Everton, who head into Sunday's clash with Frank Lampard's former club Chelsea sitting in the bottom three for the first time since 2019 (when, ironically, they beat a Chelsea side managed by Lampard).

Lampard has taken 10 points from his 12 games in charge, and they are now predicted to finish in 18th place. The model gives them a 29.8 per cent chance of escaping the drop and finishing 17th and just a 17.4 per cent likelihood of coming 16th. Their run-in includes three away games, and Everton have the worst away record in the competition – 12 of their 19 defeats coming on the road and they have taken just six points on their travels all season.

Burnley sit two points clear of Everton in 17th after two successive victories and are given a 39.4 per cent chance of staying put, although the likelihood of the Clarets' finishing 18th is not dissimilar (36.5 per cent).

Leeds have tough fixtures against City, Arsenal and Chelsea coming up before they host Brighton and Hove Albion and visit Brentford, though Stats Perform AI gives them only a 12.9 per cent chance of relegation.

Watford are heavily predicted to stay put in 19th too, with Norwich given a 67.4 per cent probability of finishing bottom – the model reckons they have a 0.1 per cent chance of avoiding the drop.

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  • We expect to be here – Emma Hayes says semi-finals are where Chelsea should be We expect to be here – Emma Hayes says semi-finals are where Chelsea should be

    Chelsea boss Emma Hayes believes her side has simply lived up to expectations by securing passage to the Champions League semi-finals after a 1-1 draw with Ajax at Stamford Bridge.

    Mayra Ramirez opened the scoring 33 minutes into in the first half of her Champions League debut and, while Chasity Grant netted a second-half consolation for the visitors, the Blues ultimately booked their place in the final four with a comfortable 4-1 aggregate victory.

    The Blues, who progressed to the semi-finals for the fifth time in seven seasons, will face the winners of the last-eight clash between holders Barcelona and Norwegian side Brann, who play their second leg on Thursday.

    Hayes said: “If you look at our record in the Champions League, even in the last five years, it was only once we didn’t qualify from the group. We’ve made the latter stages every year.

    “We expect to be here, I should say that. I don’t make any excuses. We should be at this level, and we should be at the semi-finals. Of course we have a little bit more depth to be able to do things like make six changes tonight than we’ve ever had.

    “But we haven’t won anything. We’re in the place we want to be. I don’t know who the opponent will be, but we’re ready.”

    The Champions League trophy is the one that still eludes Hayes, who has secured 13 major titles in her 12-year run at the Blues’ helm that will conclude when she departs at the end of this season to take over the US women’s national team ahead of this summer’s Olympics.

    The now five-time semi-finalists came closest when they reached a maiden final in 2021, ultimately finishing runners-up in a 4-0 loss to Barcelona, the same side who knocked them out with a 2-1 victory on aggregate in last season’s semi-finals.

    This time around Hayes feels Chelsea have “more attacking options, more variety, a little more experience”.

    “We’ve been in the latter stages so many times, we know where we have to be to play in those sorts of games,” Hayes added.

    Ajax captain Sherida Spitse, whose side were just the second Dutch club to reach the last eight in Women’s Champions League history, insisted she and her team-mates will walk away from the competition with their heads held high.

    She said: “I think we can be really proud of each other. Of course you always want to win, you always want to go through, but in the end we have shown who Ajax are and that we have developed in a good way, especially in the games in the Champions League.

    “We have to be here every year because I think that is the best place to be.”

  • James Maddison wants opportunity to show what he can do for England James Maddison wants opportunity to show what he can do for England

    James Maddison is eager to have an opportunity to show Gareth Southgate what he can do in an England shirt – but insists he is old enough now to not sulk when he does not start.

    The Tottenham playmaker will be hopeful of a place in Southgate’s Euro 2024 squad when it is announced in May, having made an eye-catching cameo appearance in the 2-2 draw with Belgium on Tuesday.

    After sitting out the loss to Brazil, Maddison came on to tee up Jude Bellingham for the last-gasp equaliser against the Red Devils.

    It was Maddison’s sixth England cap, but he has never completed a full 90 minutes for the senior side.

    Asked if he was happy to be able to make an impact, the former Leicester player said: “Yes, but we’ve got 26 players who are capable of that.

    “There is big competition, a lot of quality in the squad. You have to make sure when you are called upon, you have to go and do the business.

    “I don’t lack the confidence and belief in myself to do that, but you still have to go and do it, you have to produce. I just want that opportunity, I want that time on the pitch, because I know what I’m capable of.

    “It’s not the be-all and end-all that I got an assist. I know the quality that I have and possess and that can help this team, most definitely. You’ve also got to show it and you have also got to have the opportunity to show it.

    “I didn’t feature in the first game, which was disappointing because I wanted to play in a big game at Wembley.

    “I came on (against Belgium) and made an impact. I’m showing him (Southgate) what I’m capable of and I just want to show more of that.”

    Maddison explained how he had watched from the bench against Belgium, seeing the spaces in which he felt he could operate.

    While he is plotting and planning, though, he also admits to being frustrated at not being on the pitch.

    “Grumpy. Very, very, very grumpy is the first thing I’d say,” he replied when asked what he is like sat on the bench.

    “But once you accept the fact you’re on the bench. I’m experienced now, I’m 27. On the odd occasion when I was younger, I’d be sulking, I’d be moody, probably not go about it the right way as a teenage James Maddison.

    “Now I’m older, I just assess the game and see where I can have an impact. I noticed here there was a lot of space between the lines.

    “Their midfield started really strong but it looked like they tired – it’s a big pitch, Wembley – and I knew I’d be able to have an impact. So I studied the little pockets, I got on and managed to make it work.”

    There is fierce competition for a place in England’s Euro 2024 squad and the self-confident Maddison is now targeting a good end to the campaign with Spurs to aid his cause.

    “I don’t feel any pressure. Once you’re away from here you can only play well for your club,” he said.

    “I’ve been in the squad for 18 months now. I feel really at home. I have got a great relationship with all the staff and the players.”

    Making it to Germany would give Maddison a chance to play in a major tournament after a niggling knee injury saw him miss England’s 2022 World Cup campaign despite being part of the squad in Qatar.

    “That was a very difficult time, what people don’t see behind the curtain,” he said.

    “I had an injury that I just couldn’t shake off. I got myself back training after the group stages but I wasn’t really right.

    “I was so disappointed, because going to a major tournament with your country is the pinnacle and you want to impact. I’m hungry to get there now.”

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