As the 2021-22 Premier League season enters its final weeks, plenty remains for the taking – not least the thrilling title race between Liverpool and reigning champions Manchester City.
Both teams are in imperious form and, while City lead the way by a single point heading into the weekend, one slip might be all it takes.
Chelsea seem relatively secure in third place, but behind them the battle for the final Champions League spot is raging on. Just two points separate north London rivals Arsenal and Tottenham, who meet in a potentially decisive derby in mid-May.
Manchester United have played two games more than those two sides and look like they will have to settle for sixth, assuming they can fend off West Ham.
At the bottom, Everton are in real danger of losing their Premier League status for the first time but will hold out hope in their dogfight against Burnley and Leeds United, though Watford and Norwich City appear destined for the drop.
But just how will it all unfold? Well, using the Stats Perform League Prediction Model, we can try and forecast the final standings.
Created by Stats Perform AI using Opta data, the model has analysed the division to assign percentages to potential outcomes for each club.
The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) based on teams' attacking and defensive qualities, which considers four years' worth of results, with weighting based on recency and the quality of opposition. The rest of the matches are then simulated 10,000 times to calculate the likelihood of each outcome.
Let's take a look...
PEP PIPS KLOPP TO THE POST... AGAIN
City won the Premier League title by a margin of just one point in the 2018-19 campaign. The gap has been much wider over the past two seasons, with Liverpool triumphing in 2020 and City winning last year.
But just like in 2019, the model suggests Liverpool will fall just short once again, with City predicted to stay on top. It gives Pep Guardiola's team a 66 per cent chance of winning their fourth title in five seasons, with the Reds given a 34 per cent chance.
Neither side are predicted to drop out of the top two – that seems a safe bet. Liverpool have a tough trip to in-form Newcastle United on Saturday, while City face Leeds United.
Newcastle will then have the chance to have another say in the title race when they visit City on May 8, with trips to Wolves and West Ham coming for the leaders before they round off their domestic season against Steven Gerrard's Aston Villa.
Liverpool, who also face Villa along with Spurs, Southampton and Wolves, will be wanting a favour from their club great on the last day of the season if they are to prove the model wrong.
GUNNERS CLINCH CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PLACE
Chelsea, according to the model, have a 98.7 chance of staying in third place, and are certain to be playing in UEFA's elite competition next season.
Below them, it is predicted that Arsenal will just nip into the top four rather than Spurs. Mikel Arteta's team have a 75.2 per cent chance of qualifying for the Champions League, and just 24.8 of finishing in a Europa League place.
While Stats Perform AI only gives Arsenal a minuscule opportunity of taking third off Chelsea, they have a 73.9 per cent chance of securing fourth place and featuring in the Champions League for the first time since 2016-17.
It seems likely that much will be decided on May 12, when Spurs welcome Arsenal to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Antonio Conte's team are predicted to finish fifth (72.4 per cent), and only have a 24.7 per cent likelihood of clinching fourth.
United are forecast to finish sixth (65 per cent), albeit there is the possibility they could even end 2021-22 in seventh. That position, however, seems set to be filled by West Ham, who have to win against Eintracht Frankfurt next week to keep their hopes of a Europa League triumph alive – success in that competition would take them into the Champions League, regardless of where they finish domestically.
TOFFEES CHAMPIONSHIP-BOUND
It has been a dismal season for Everton, who head into Sunday's clash with Frank Lampard's former club Chelsea sitting in the bottom three for the first time since 2019 (when, ironically, they beat a Chelsea side managed by Lampard).
Lampard has taken 10 points from his 12 games in charge, and they are now predicted to finish in 18th place. The model gives them a 29.8 per cent chance of escaping the drop and finishing 17th and just a 17.4 per cent likelihood of coming 16th. Their run-in includes three away games, and Everton have the worst away record in the competition – 12 of their 19 defeats coming on the road and they have taken just six points on their travels all season.
Burnley sit two points clear of Everton in 17th after two successive victories and are given a 39.4 per cent chance of staying put, although the likelihood of the Clarets' finishing 18th is not dissimilar (36.5 per cent).
Leeds have tough fixtures against City, Arsenal and Chelsea coming up before they host Brighton and Hove Albion and visit Brentford, though Stats Perform AI gives them only a 12.9 per cent chance of relegation.
Watford are heavily predicted to stay put in 19th too, with Norwich given a 67.4 per cent probability of finishing bottom – the model reckons they have a 0.1 per cent chance of avoiding the drop.
Ibrahimovic: Conte being made to pay by Spurs for being himself
Zlatan Ibrahimovic believes Antonio Conte is being made to pay by Tottenham for "being himself".
Conte is widely expected to be sacked in the coming days following his outburst after Spurs let a two-goal lead slip in last weekend's 3-3 Premier League draw at Southampton.
The Italian accused his players of being "selfish" and playing with "no heart", with that draw following swiftly on from Tottenham's FA Cup and Champions League exits.
But Ibrahimovic, who has never previously played under Conte, has defended the multi-title-winning coach for speaking his mind in public.
"Every single person works in his own way. Somebody tries to be an actor, pretend. Somebody is being himself, somebody is trying to be perfect," he told Sky Sports.
"I believe in being yourself, and sometimes you pay for it because that's not what the people want to hear.
"I prefer to be myself and express myself like I think and the way I want. We all work in our own way."
Conte has spent the past week in Italy, and his future is likely to be decided by the middle of next week at the latest when Tottenham's international players return to training.
Milan veteran Ibrahimovic is himself away on international duty with Sweden and was introduced as a second-half substitute in Friday's 3-0 Euro 2024 qualifying loss to Belgium.
Sweden's oldest player at the age of 41 years and five months, Ibrahimovic has no plans to call time on his career just yet.
"I want to continue playing football," said Ibrahimovic, who has played four times for Milan since returning from a long-term injury lay-off last month.
"If I feel good, this is my priority, and I feel very good at Milan. If they want me to keep me then I'm happy. I'm available."
Keane expects Conte's Spurs future to be resolved 'in next few days'
Robbie Keane expects Tottenham head coach Antonio Conte's future to be resolved "in the next few days".
Conte is facing the sack after an extraordinary outburst following a 3-3 Premier League draw at Southampton last weekend.
The Italian accused his players of being "selfish", having "no heart" and not wanting to "play under stress" after they dropped points against the struggling Saints.
Conte has returned to his homeland during the international break amid reports he could be shown the door before his contract expires at the end of this season.
Spurs bowed out of the Champions League with a whimper at the hands of Milan and are fourth in the Premier League.
Former Tottenham striker Keane thinks uncertainty over Conte's position will be ended early next week.
Asked about Spurs' season, he told Stats Perform: "I would say inconsistent if you look where they are. If they finish in the top four, is that a fantastic, successful season? I would say probably yes.
"With just 10 games to go, I think they're in a good position. Of course, the situation with Conte is not helpful. But nothing has come out yet in terms of the club or Conte saying that he's going to leave or he's going to stay.
"I'm sure that will be sorted out in the next few days, definitely before Monday or Tuesday because the lads are back in training, but it's not unusual for Conte to go home.
"He's been doing this since he's been at the club when the lads are on international break. He goes home and spends time with his family. So that's normal because I think we have three first-team players that are there.
"Ryan Mason and other first-team coaches take it. So that's not unusual. I think everybody, every Tottenham fan, would probably need a bit of clarity, certainly in the next few days."
Tottenham, who have been tipped to move for sacked Bayern Munich head coach Julian Nagelsmann, face Everton on their return to Premier League action a week on Monday.
Maguire suggests he does not feel fully appreciated at Man Utd
England centre-back Harry Maguire suggested he does not feel fully appreciated at Manchester United and insists his influence is still being fully felt at the club.
Maguire has started just five Premier League games all season after falling out of favour at United since the arrival of manager Erik ten Hag.
The 30-year-old has had no such problems under Gareth Southgate, having remained a regular for England despite his relative lack of minutes at club level.
Amid rumours that Maguire may look to find a new team ahead of next season, the former Leicester City man has defended his time at Old Trafford.
"In my last nine starts for United, we have won," he said. "I can't remember losing a game for United, so my influence is still there."
Asked if he feels properly appreciated, Maguire said: "For England, yes. Last season was difficult for [United] but I've proven myself to Gareth.
"I've made over 50 caps. I'm England's top-scoring defender. I've played nearly 200 times for United. I've captained the club for three years.
"I do also understand that when you are the captain of United you do come under the most amount of scrutiny.
"Last season at club level, my performances weren't good enough, alongside everybody else at club level."
Maguire played a full part as England kicked off their Euro 2024 qualifying campaign with a 2-1 win away at Italy on Friday.
England exited the 2022 World Cup at the quarter-final stage, and Maguire says falling short of lifting the European Championship title next year will be "a failure".
"I believe we have the players to win it," he said. "I'm with a mindset of 'If we don't win the tournament, it's been a failure'.
"I've been at three major tournaments now and I've come so close. Obviously, we've got to qualify first from a tough group, we've come to Italy and got an amazing result.
"We're in a good place. But these big tournaments are decided on the finest margins.
"I think we played really well in the World Cup and ultimately we got knocked out by a good French team. So it's something that we're working on.
"We have so much talent and so many young players coming through."
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