As the 2021-22 Premier League season enters its final weeks, plenty remains for the taking – not least the thrilling title race between Liverpool and reigning champions Manchester City.
Both teams are in imperious form and, while City lead the way by a single point heading into the weekend, one slip might be all it takes.
Chelsea seem relatively secure in third place, but behind them the battle for the final Champions League spot is raging on. Just two points separate north London rivals Arsenal and Tottenham, who meet in a potentially decisive derby in mid-May.
Manchester United have played two games more than those two sides and look like they will have to settle for sixth, assuming they can fend off West Ham.
At the bottom, Everton are in real danger of losing their Premier League status for the first time but will hold out hope in their dogfight against Burnley and Leeds United, though Watford and Norwich City appear destined for the drop.
But just how will it all unfold? Well, using the Stats Perform League Prediction Model, we can try and forecast the final standings.
Created by Stats Perform AI using Opta data, the model has analysed the division to assign percentages to potential outcomes for each club.
The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) based on teams' attacking and defensive qualities, which considers four years' worth of results, with weighting based on recency and the quality of opposition. The rest of the matches are then simulated 10,000 times to calculate the likelihood of each outcome.
Let's take a look...
PEP PIPS KLOPP TO THE POST... AGAIN
City won the Premier League title by a margin of just one point in the 2018-19 campaign. The gap has been much wider over the past two seasons, with Liverpool triumphing in 2020 and City winning last year.
But just like in 2019, the model suggests Liverpool will fall just short once again, with City predicted to stay on top. It gives Pep Guardiola's team a 66 per cent chance of winning their fourth title in five seasons, with the Reds given a 34 per cent chance.
Neither side are predicted to drop out of the top two – that seems a safe bet. Liverpool have a tough trip to in-form Newcastle United on Saturday, while City face Leeds United.
Newcastle will then have the chance to have another say in the title race when they visit City on May 8, with trips to Wolves and West Ham coming for the leaders before they round off their domestic season against Steven Gerrard's Aston Villa.
Liverpool, who also face Villa along with Spurs, Southampton and Wolves, will be wanting a favour from their club great on the last day of the season if they are to prove the model wrong.
GUNNERS CLINCH CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PLACE
Chelsea, according to the model, have a 98.7 chance of staying in third place, and are certain to be playing in UEFA's elite competition next season.
Below them, it is predicted that Arsenal will just nip into the top four rather than Spurs. Mikel Arteta's team have a 75.2 per cent chance of qualifying for the Champions League, and just 24.8 of finishing in a Europa League place.
While Stats Perform AI only gives Arsenal a minuscule opportunity of taking third off Chelsea, they have a 73.9 per cent chance of securing fourth place and featuring in the Champions League for the first time since 2016-17.
It seems likely that much will be decided on May 12, when Spurs welcome Arsenal to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Antonio Conte's team are predicted to finish fifth (72.4 per cent), and only have a 24.7 per cent likelihood of clinching fourth.
United are forecast to finish sixth (65 per cent), albeit there is the possibility they could even end 2021-22 in seventh. That position, however, seems set to be filled by West Ham, who have to win against Eintracht Frankfurt next week to keep their hopes of a Europa League triumph alive – success in that competition would take them into the Champions League, regardless of where they finish domestically.
TOFFEES CHAMPIONSHIP-BOUND
It has been a dismal season for Everton, who head into Sunday's clash with Frank Lampard's former club Chelsea sitting in the bottom three for the first time since 2019 (when, ironically, they beat a Chelsea side managed by Lampard).
Lampard has taken 10 points from his 12 games in charge, and they are now predicted to finish in 18th place. The model gives them a 29.8 per cent chance of escaping the drop and finishing 17th and just a 17.4 per cent likelihood of coming 16th. Their run-in includes three away games, and Everton have the worst away record in the competition – 12 of their 19 defeats coming on the road and they have taken just six points on their travels all season.
Burnley sit two points clear of Everton in 17th after two successive victories and are given a 39.4 per cent chance of staying put, although the likelihood of the Clarets' finishing 18th is not dissimilar (36.5 per cent).
Leeds have tough fixtures against City, Arsenal and Chelsea coming up before they host Brighton and Hove Albion and visit Brentford, though Stats Perform AI gives them only a 12.9 per cent chance of relegation.
Watford are heavily predicted to stay put in 19th too, with Norwich given a 67.4 per cent probability of finishing bottom – the model reckons they have a 0.1 per cent chance of avoiding the drop.
Sessegnon rejoins boyhood club Fulham after Tottenham departure
Ryan Sessegnon has resigned for Fulham on a free transfer, five years after leaving the club.
The 24-year-old signed a two-year contract with the Cottagers with the option to extend for a further year following his departure from Tottenham last month.
In his first spell at the club, Sessegnon worked his way through the academy over 11 years, scoring 25 goals in 120 first-team appearances.
He then moved to Spurs in a £25million deal in 2019, though struggled to nail down a place in North London, making just 57 appearances in all competitions, and scoring three goals.
"It's amazing to be back. Emotional, as well," he told FFCtv. "It's where it started for me, where everything began, and it's amazing to be back.
"It will always be home for me. I think it had the feeling that it was meant to be, coming back here, so I'm delighted to get it done."
Sessegnon is Fulham's first signing of the transfer window, though they have seen plenty of first-team departures already, with Joao Palhinha, Tosin Adarabioyo and Bobby De Cordova-Reid all leaving the club.
Ederson slams reports of rift with Man City backup Ortega
Ederson has hit out at reports of a rift between himself and fellow Manchester City goalkeeper Stefan Ortega.
The Brazilian was substituted after suffering a fractured eye socket in City's penultimate game of the Premier League season, a vital 1-0 win over Tottenham.
Ortega replaced him and made a brilliant save to deny Son Heung-min as City maintained their slender lead over Arsenal at the top of the table, sealing an unprecedented fourth straight title by beating West Ham five days later.
Ortega was widely lauded for his role in that triumph, and an article published by The Athletic this week suggested Ederson took issue with that praise.
However, the goalkeeper – who missed the Copa America as a result of his injury – has now moved to shut down those suggestions with a post to his Instagram story.
"I would like to clarify that the note published by The Athletic yesterday, referring to my alleged dissatisfaction with a co-worker, is completely false," he wrote.
"The alleged day reported was, without a doubt, one of the most difficult days of my career, when I suffered a fracture that prevented me from playing in the final stretch of the season and, consequently, from representing my country in the Copa America.
"At the time of the injury, my only thought was to continue in the match, defending City in the fight for the title.
"But the emotion of the match would be greater than the reality and, inevitably, I would not be able to continue as I would have liked due to the damage it caused, completely blocking my field of vision. I remain focused on preparing for the season."
Ederson has been linked with a transfer in recent days, reportedly attracting interest from Saudi Pro League clubs.
Slot's Liverpool success will be measured by trophies, says McAllister
Gary McAllister says Arne Slot must be prepared to aim high by targeting trophies if he is to be successful with Liverpool.
The Dutchman is set to begin his first season in charge of the Reds after being appointed as Jurgen Klopp's successor in May.
Liverpool enjoyed a trophy-laden spell under the German, winning their first-ever Premier League title, as well as a Champions League, a Club World Cup, a Super Cup, an FA Cup and two EFL Cups.
However, Slot was no stranger to success while at Feyenoord, leading the team to the Eredivisie title in 2022-23 before lifting the KNVB Cup in April during his final season with the club.
McAllister, who won five trophies in the two years he spent at Liverpool, says Slot's success will be determined by the silverware he collects.
"Liverpool is a club that's synonymous with winning, and when you don't win you fail," McAllister told Stats Perform.
"When there's a new management team, you're given a little bit more time, but the facts are Liverpool's target, I felt, and as a player that played against them for most of his career, the targets that Liverpool set, you go into every tournament looking to win it.
"You try to win every game and that's the expectation of the club and that's what makes it a very special club."
Klopp spent nine years at Liverpool, breaking club records as his team pushed for trophies on a regular basis.
The Reds enjoyed a club-record 68-match unbeaten run at Anfield over nearly four years in the Premier League between April 2017 and January 2021.
Klopp also oversaw three of the four most prolific seasons in Liverpool's history, including the club-record total of 147 goals scored in 2021-22.
Slot has admitted he has "big shoes to fill", but McAllister believes the 45-year-old will be able to live up to the high expectations left behind by Klopp.
"Arne arriving at the club, following Klopp, realising that it's such a difficult job anyway, but to follow somebody who's done particularly well at the club over an eight, nine-year period is going to be tough, and I don't think the new manager is under any illusions," he added.
"What I would say is he's a man that seems to be a very strong character, good personality, and he's just got to come in and be his own man and trust what he does.
"He's done very well in his previous managerial career and coming to Liverpool I feel is a natural progression in the levels of the game that he's worked at.
"So, everybody at the club will be deeply backing him and be right behind him, he'll have amazing support."
Liverpool's first pre-season game under Slot ended in a 1-0 defeat to Preston North End last week before the players flew out to the United States for a three-game tour.
They are also only one of two Premier League clubs yet to conduct any business in the transfer window so far, but McAllister urged fans to be patient with Slot while he gets settled in his new role.
"Whenever there's a change at a club, I think the fans have got to realise that it does take time for a new manager, a new coaching group to come in and get their ideas over to the players," he said.
"There's got to be a modicum of patience, but at Liverpool, expectation levels are very, very high and sometimes, in professional soccer, in elite soccer, patience is something that most managers don't get.
"As much as the fans have got to be aware that everything is new and there are new ideas, Arne and the players will want to get off to a quick start.
"I feel that this pre-season tour is going to help them start the season against Ipswich Town very strongly. I feel the games that they've got here in the US, here in Pittsburgh against Betis, and then we go to play Arsenal and Manchester United, the build-up is pretty good."
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