In 2019 there were murmurings of fan frustration at Wolves after the club allowed a couple of young Portuguese players leave Molineux.
Joao Dias had not made much of an impression in the Midlands, and so his exit to Famalicao – who had just been promoted to the Portuguese Primeira Liga for the first time since the early 1990s – was not a huge shock, but the fact his compatriot Pedro Goncalves went as well did stir some modest disgruntlement.
Granted, Goncalves – who turned 21 just a few days earlier – had never even been on the senior team's bench for a league game, but many of those who watched the club's Under-23s felt there was sure to be a rotational role, at least, up for grabs.
A report by The Athletic last year claimed Wolves allowed Goncalves to depart for a combination of reasons.
For starters, they were apparently unconvinced – despite his obvious talent – there was a role available for the attacking midfielder, given Nuno Espirito Santo at the time played with a fairly set deep-lying midfield and two wingers.
Additionally, it was reportedly felt a loan might not be in Goncalves' best interests because the possibility of a recall offered him a safety net – instead, he was sold for a small initial figure that would be boosted by percentages of his next two transfers fees.
But ahead of Sporting CP's Champions League last-16 clash with Manchester City on Wednesday, it's difficult to not think Wolves dropped the ball with this one.
The move to Famalicao wasn't as random a destination as it might've looked, however. The club's rise from obscurity was influenced massively by 'super agent' Jorge Mendes, who also has an interest in Wolves and Valencia, where Goncalves – or, Pote – initially played youth football prior to his brief stint in England.
Nevertheless, Goncalves quickly established himself at the Primeira Liga newcomers, the talents that were perhaps undervalued at Wolves coming to the fore. He wasted little time before showing his array of skills, from close ball control and deft throughballs, to clever lurking and instinctive finishing – his very first goal against Pacos Ferreira was a fine example of the latter two traits, as he held his run to create space and that ensured the pressure on him was minimal as he buried a rebound from 12 yards.
This Famalicao side had an emphasis on young players, and that youthful vibrancy helped propel them to a sixth-placed finish – Goncalves more than played his part, scoring five times and setting up another five.
Sporting were on the hunt for a replacement for Bruno Fernandes at the end of 2019-20, having seen their talisman and captain depart for Manchester United a few months earlier. Little could they have known the remarkable – bordering on freakish – campaign Goncalves would go on to have after arriving for roughly €5million.
And more importantly than his individual numbers, Goncalves' efforts helped Sporting achieve something even Fernandes couldn't: becoming Portuguese champions. Their Primeira Liga title success last term was their first since 2001-02, finally ending the dominance of their bitter rivals Porto and Benfica, who had won the previous 18 championships between them.
There's little doubt Goncalves was vital in their conquest.
He led the league's scoring charts with 23, only two of those coming from the spot. But what makes that haul even more incredible is the fact his chances (excluding penalties) were only worth 9.98 expected goals (xG). Of course, such form is hardly sustainable over the long term (we'll come to that later), but Goncalves was lethal on an unrivalled scale.
That gave him an xG overperformance of 11.02 – the next best record in that respect in the Primeira Liga was Toni Martinez, who scored seven times from 2.99 xG.
In fact, no one in the top five leagues got near that kind of efficiency. Marcos Llorente boasted the best record over those competitions (8.59 xG overperformance). Of course, Goncalves was playing in a division regarded as being lower in quality, but it still highlights just how abnormal his season was.
Don't get the idea that Goncalves suddenly became a poacher, though. Only one player (Ivo Rodrigues, four) bettered his three goals from outside the area, and he also remained a creative presence.
Sure, his three assists was hardly gobsmacking, but only Jesus Corona (68) and Ryan Gauld (75) laid on more chances than Pote (51), while his 6.8 expected assists (xA) was also the third-highest – the differential between his assists and xA potentially down to poor finishing by team-mates.
His output of six league goals from 17 games this season effectively proves the unsustainability of his productivity last term, but that's not to say he's playing worse – in fact, in many areas he proving even more threatening.
His non-penalty xG per game is up to 0.43 from 0.33, he is laying on more chances (1.9 up from 1.7) and his xA is also up on a per-90-minute basis (0.27 from 0.22).
He missed the dramatic 2-2 draw with Porto at the weekend through injury but has been back in training since, a massive boost to coach Ruben Amorim.
While even he may not be enough to stop the juggernaut that is Manchester City, his presence will certainly make progression a little less implausible.
Nuno looking beyond Man City's poor form ahead of clash with Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest head coach Nuno Espirito Santo insists Manchester City remain a top-quality side despite their poor run of form heading into Wednesday's Premier League contest.
City have gone seven games without a win in all competitions – the longest-such streak in Pep Guardiola's managerial career – with six of those ending in defeat.
Sunday's 2-0 loss at leaders Liverpool leaves the reigning champions fifth and now 11 points adrift of the Reds, but Nuno is looking beyond this poor run of form before facing off at the Etihad Stadium.
"It's the reality of the game – you always have ups and downs," Nuno said. "Every team has to be ready to face those moments of uncertainty when things are not going well.
"It's how long you stay there and how you bounce back from those moments; how you reorganise and improve. Their run doesn't take away the quality and the talent they have.
"Let's not forget, they're the champions and have won so much with such quality players and such a good manager. When you have such quality players and play such good football, for sure they'll turn it around."
Recharge and go again. pic.twitter.com/H5bQhrPL74
— Nottingham Forest (@NFFC) December 2, 2024City are only one point and one place better off than Forest, who put back-to-back defeats against Arsenal and Newcastle United behind them with a 1-0 win over Ipswich Town at the weekend.
Guardiola, who has won 18 trophies across his eight full seasons as City boss, is determined to battle on having only just signed a new two-year contract.
"I've lived better before than now," he said. "But I'm incredibly honest with myself and, when we were winning a lot, my perspective was I was fortunate to live that.
"Now I'm not depressed that everything is going bad. When I think I cannot do it we will talk with the club but I feel that I want to do it and life is not in all departments perfect."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Manchester City - Erling Haaland
Haaland has failed to score in back-to-back Premier League games for City, although he does still have 15 goals in his past 11 games at the Etihad Stadium in all competitions.
The leading Premier League top scorer this season, who has 12 goals in 13 matches overall, has also netted four times in two games on home soil against Forest.
Nottingham Forest - Chris Wood
Wood scored the only goal of the game in the 1-0 win over Ipswich via the penalty spot and also has 12 goals in his past 13 away Premier League away games for Forest.
The New Zealand international is looking to become the first Reds player to score in four successive away games in the competition, and the first in the English top flight for the club since Garry Birtles in 1983-84.
Ready for more? pic.twitter.com/zpomnE4CtA
— Premier League (@premierleague) December 2, 2024MATCH PREDICTION: MAN CITY WIN
City have conceded three-plus goals in both of their past two home games in all competitions, which they last managed in 1963 when going on to be relegated from the top flight.
Guardiola's men may be in poor form, but they are unbeaten in their past eight league games against Forest stretching back to a 3-2 loss in the second tier in December 1997.
Forest have also lost their past four away league games against City by an aggregate scoreline of 12-0, while they are winless in their past seven top-flight visits since 1989.
The Reds have lost their past five away games against reigning top-flight champions by an aggregate scoreline of 21-2, meanwhile, since beating Manchester City 2-1 in December 1994.
If the omens were not already stacked against Forest, opponents City are unbeaten in their past 31 home Premier League games on a Wednesday, winning each of the past 20.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Manchester City win - 66.8%
Nottingham Forest win - 14.8%
Draw - 18.4%
Roma 0-2 Atalanta: De Roon and Zaniolo make it eight Serie A wins in a row
Nicolo Zaniolo scored against his former side as Atalanta defeated Roma 2-0 at Stadio Olimpico on Monday to make it eight Serie A wins in a row and move within one point of leaders Napoli.
Marten de Roon opened the scoring in the 69th minute with a shot from the edge of the box that heavily deflected in off Zeki Celik, before substitute Zaniolo sealed the points in the final minute with a glancing header.
Claudio Ranieri was taking charge of Roma on home soil for the first time since returning for a third spell in charge and saw his side start brightly, with Leandro Paredes testing Marco Carnesecchi and Manu Kone firing just wide.
Atalanta had an Ademola Lookman goal ruled out for offside before half-time as they started to assert a little more authority on the game.
Artem Dovbyk was next to go close for Roma, forcing Carnesecchi into a good save, but Atalanta captain De Roon found the breakthrough at the other end when his deflected shot wrong-footed Mile Svilar.
Zaniolo then got his head to Juan Cuadrado's corner for Atalanta's second, which he did not hold back on celebrating with the travelling fans, as 15th-placed Roma were condemned to a fourth league loss in a row for the first time in 16 years.
EIGHT IN A ROW! #RomaAtalanta pic.twitter.com/8UQPlAsiXf
— Lega Serie A (@SerieA_EN) December 2, 2024
Data Debrief: Game goes way of the form book
This is only the second time Atalanta have ever won eight Serie A matches in a row, having previously done so between February and July 2020.
Roma's form could not be any more contrasting, as they have lost four on the spin in the league for the first time since 2008 under Luciano Spalletti.
I Giallorossi have now picked up just one point from their past four Serie A fixtures against Atalanta, losing four and drawing one of those encounters.
Wright-Phillips backs Man City to turn things around
Shaun Wright-Phillips has backed Manchester City to turn their form around and refused to rule them out of the Premier League title race.
City were beaten 2-0 by Liverpool at Anfield on Sunday, with Cody Gakpo and Mohamed Salah getting the goals for the rampant Reds.
Pep Guardiola's team are winless in seven games in all competitions and have now lost their last five league matches.
Sunday's defeat left them 11 points behind Liverpool after 13 games, and their title hopes are dangling by a thread. Indeed, the Opta supercomputer gives City just a 4.3% chance of retaining the title.
But former City winger Wright-Phillips thinks his old club are still in with a chance, if they rediscover their "addiction to winning".
He told Stats Perform: "I'm very confident [in Man City]. I've been lucky enough to have been around the pre-season camps over the last two years and seen the mentality of not only the players but the manager, the coaching staff, and even the staff behind the scenes.
"They've set such high standards for themselves in terms of what they've achieved over the last four years that any dip feels like something is really wrong. But a lot of the players, like some in other teams, didn't have a full pre-season and are still trying to get minutes under their belts and get fit.
"Pep rarely makes excuses. He deals with the hand he's got and tries to find solutions. But with players coming back into the fold, like Kevin De Bruyne getting minutes and Jeremy Doku coming on to liven up the game, you can see the threats are still there.
"Chances will come. And with a man like Erling Haaland up front, I don't think they’ll have much of a problem.
"It's just about getting that first win, regaining that feeling, hunger, and addiction to winning. Once they do, I think they'll be fine."
Guardiola faced chants of "getting sacked in the morning" from the Liverpool fans on Sunday, though smiled his way through it before holding up six fingers, representing his six Premier League titles.
He also did the same towards the travelling City fans at the end of the match.
"I think it's brilliant," said Wright-Phillips. "Things like that are good for the game. It's not him being arrogant, and it's not Liverpool fans being a nuisance.
"I've played at Anfield, and it's a daunting ground to go to, but I've always had a laugh with the fans about what they say.
"If I was on the bench, I'd turn around and just laugh at it. They have good banter, and as soon as Pep responded, they laughed, and it kind of went away.
"It shows there's mutual respect. There's not much more they could have sung about Pep apart from something funny because what he’s achieved within the game — period, not just in the Premier League — is phenomenal."
City host Nottingham Forest in their next Premier League game on Wednesday.
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