Newcastle United versus Everton may have been ringed on the calendar back in August, but not for the same reasons it is now the source of such intrigue.
Tuesday's fixture could have seen Rafael Benitez return to St James' Park for the first time since quitting as Newcastle manager back in 2019.
However, Benitez is out at Everton – as, at Newcastle, is Steve Bruce, his successor on Tyneside.
Instead, Frank Lampard heads north for his Premier League bow as Everton boss, set to take on Eddie Howe's Magpies in a match neither can afford to lose.
Newcastle remain in the bottom three yet can close to within a point of their opponents with a win that would surely drag Lampard's men into the relegation battle.
Ahead of a mammoth encounter, Stats Perform's Ben Spratt and Patric Ridge examine the issues that have brought the two teams to this point and consider how they can each hope to kick clear of the danger – starting at Gallowgate.
Why Newcastle are in trouble – BS
This has felt like a relegation campaign right from the outset, with Newcastle's positive performances going unrewarded and their poorer displays being ruthlessly punished.
Newcastle led within five minutes at home to West Ham on the opening day, as Bruce attempted to deliver a more exciting, attacking brand of football. He succeeded only in leaving a hapless defence hopelessly exposed.
They lost 4-2 to the Hammers, the first three of 21 points dropped from winning positions, the first four of 43 goals conceded – 10 of which have been a result of errors leading to goals (four), penalty goals (five) or own goals (one).
Those mistakes have continued under Howe, who has also quickly grown tired of a consistent trend of contentious refereeing decisions going against his side at both ends of the pitch.
The assumption from those not watching this luckless outfit on a weekly basis has been that January spending would lift Newcastle to safety. That theory is about to be put to the test, however, with the neutral perhaps anticipating more ambitious targets than Chris Wood and Dan Burn.
Why Everton are in trouble – PR
Benitez was never the right choice at Goodison Park – but not only due to his Liverpool connections. While his disciplined, organised Newcastle side appeared to play to a clear plan, his Everton team were, largely, shocking.
After a 1-1 draw with Manchester United in October, Everton had 14 points from their seven Premier League games – their best start since 2004-05 (16 points), when they finished fourth – but the underlying level of performances always suggested that if injuries hit, which they did, the Toffees may struggle. And struggle they have.
Benitez – who cannot be blamed for all of Everton's issues, it has to be stressed – wanted to play on the counter-attack, yet his team could not defend. Across 19 league games in charge, they shipped 34 goals – including 11 from set-pieces, a problem that persists.
But Everton's issues have not been restricted to one area of the pitch.
From a 1-0 defeat to West Ham on October 17 to Benitez's final match in charge against Norwich City on January 15, Everton ranked 18th for goals (11), 16th for shots on target (46/139) and 12th for touches in the opposition box (259), as well as having the third-worst defence (27 goals conceded), with 20.6 expected goals against the fourth-worst in the division. Their position is in no way false.
Why Newcastle can survive – BS
Newcastle's £90million January outlay – the largest in world football – may not have brought a host of superstars to Tyneside, immediately guaranteeing survival, but their five signings could yet transform the way Howe's side play.
Kieran Trippier, Burn, Matt Targett and Bruno Guimaraes have all been recruited from teams who are used to having the ball – which cannot be said for Newcastle, despite their coach's footballing philosophy. No team in the Premier League have had a lower average share of possession (37.8 per cent), with just Burnley, who have two games in hand, completing fewer passes (4,962).
If Newcastle are now able to move the ball out from the back with greater confidence, their costly mistakes in possession should start to subside.
This has, after all, been a season of such fine margins. The Magpies have not lost to any of the other eight teams in the bottom nine; crucially, however, they have only beaten two of them. A new style of play, operating further away from their own goal (only Wolves have a deeper average starting position than Newcastle), should mean more opportunities created in attack and fewer conceded in defence.
Newcastle have been working towards this Everton game for more than two weeks, although only Trippier of the new faces went on the "team bonding" trip to Saudi Arabia. How quickly and effectively the rest of the signings have settled should be evident in Newcastle's approach – and, perhaps, the result.
Why Everton can survive – PR
Had they carried on with Benitez for much longer, or perhaps even left Duncan Ferguson in caretaker charge, Everton's survival chances may have been slim.
Yet that should change under Lampard – and seemingly already has. A clip of the new Toffees manager instructing his players to "enjoy the ball" during a training session last week came as a breath of fresh air to supporters who, under a succession of managers, have become accustomed to their team surrendering possession far too easily.
Evidence of Lampard's impact was there to see in the 4-1 FA Cup win over Brentford on Saturday. Even though Dele Alli and Donny van de Beek were cup-tied and Dominic Calvert-Lewin was out injured, Everton scored four goals in a game for the first time since Carlo Ancelotti oversaw a 5-4 win over Tottenham last February.
Everton had 55.8 per cent of the possession, a share they were only twice able to better under Benitez (both in defeats), with Lampard placing more of an emphasis on his defenders playing into midfield. A duel success rate of 63.1 per cent (53/84) was their best in any game across all competitions this season, as the Toffees noticeably looked to engage higher up the pitch.
Given Newcastle preferred to invest in their defence, Everton – between Calvert-Lewin, Richarlison and Demarai Gray – should have the strongest attack of those in relegation trouble. With Alli and Van de Beek also to come into the midfield and Abdoulaye Doucoure to return from injury, Lampard's more attacking, intense approach should suit the Toffees moving forward.
'It's a poor season, not a poor football club' – Blades boss Wilder
Sheffield United manager Chris Wilder has defended Sheffield United, acknowledging it has been a bad season, but dismissing that the Blades do not have a positive future.
A midweek defeat to Manchester United means the Blades can be relegated back to the Championship should they lose to Newcastle United on Saturday.
The Blades are 10 points from safety with four games left, but even a point would not realistically be enough given they have a goal difference of -59, 41 worse than Nottingham Forest’s -18.
To make matters worse, the Blades will start their next season in the Championship with a two-point deduction for financial discrepancies.
"We're not saying everything is great," said Wilder.
"What we are saying is there is a load of optimism about the future of the football club.
"It's a poor season, not a poor football club. We've been in far worse positions than this as a football club, certainly over my time as a supporter, player and manager.
"So, we'll come again if the inevitable happens on the weekend. We'll try our best, as we did, like we did on Wednesday night at Old Trafford, to get a result for our club and our supporters – who yet again were magnificent."
Newcastle, meanwhile, are in the hunt for European football, and Eddie Howe wants a response following the 2-0 defeat at Crystal Palace in midweek.
Howe said: "We must learn and absorb all the lessons from Wednesday. Every game is so difficult, it is up to us to go into the game with the right mentality and let our players express themselves in the right way. We have to finish the season strongly, we are under no illusions on how important these fixtures are."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Newcastle United – Alexander Isak
Isak has scored in each of his last six Premier League home games, with only Andrew Cole (eight in 1993-94) and Alan Shearer (15 in 1996-97) netting in more consecutively for Newcastle in the competition.
Sheffield United – Ben Brereton Diaz
Brereton Diaz scored in Sheff Utd’s 4-2 defeat at Old Trafford – his fifth Premier League goal of the season since he joined on loan from Villarreal in January. With Oli McBurnie set to miss the rest of the season, Diaz will be the Blades’ biggest attacking threat.
MATCH PREDICTION: NEWCASTLE UNITED WIN
Newcastle are overwhelming favourites, and it is no surprise given Howe have lost just one of their last 25 Premier League games kicking off at 3pm on Saturday (W16 D8), going down 1-0 at Luton Town earlier this season.
The Magpies have scored in all 17 of their Premier League home games this season, with their 43 goals in total their most at St James’ Park in a top-flight campaign since 1996-97 (54).
Newcastle have lost none of their eight Premier League home games against promoted sides under Howe (W3 D5), with their last such defeat coming against Leeds United under Steve Bruce in January 2021. They also beat Sheffield United 8-0 in the reverse fixture at Bramall Lane – the most goals they have ever scored against an opponent in a single Premier League campaign is 10, doing so against the Blades’ rivals Sheffield Wednesday in 1999-00.
The Blades have lost three of their four Premier League away games against Newcastle, failing to score in each defeat. The exception was a 1-0 victory under Neil Warnock in November 2006.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Newcastle United – 71.6%
Sheffield United – 9.7%
Draw – 18.7%
Howe does not want 'constant speculation' over Guimaraes' future
Eddie Howe acknowledged he cannot control speculation over Bruno Guimaraes' future, though the Newcastle United boss wants it to end swiftly.
Reports emerged this week that Manchester City, Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain are all interested in the Brazil international, who has been crucial to Newcastle's rise under Howe, having been signed from Lyon in January 2022.
According to the rumours, Newcastle value their star player at a minimum of £80million.
And ahead of Newcastle's meeting with Premier League strugglers Sheffield United, Howe conceded the club cannot control the speculation.
"Having that was well planned and structured by the club, in a sense that there’s a sort of finish point," he said.
"We don't want constant speculation, it's not healthy for the player or for us.
"It goes without saying we want to keep him, I want to build our team around him. His form has been very good and he seems very happy and settled.
"He'll be thinking about a very busy summer ahead, where hopefully we can take the team, with him a big part of it. But we aren't in control of that so let's see."
Guardiola insists three teams still in title hunt despite Liverpool slip-up
Pep Guardiola insists Liverpool remain in the Premier League title race, despite the Reds losing further ground on Arsenal and Manchester City in a dramatic few days at the summit.
Liverpool suffered a surprise 2-0 defeat to Merseyside rivals Everton on Wednesday, a result which meant they failed to close the gap to Arsenal after the Gunners thrashed Chelsea 5-0 on Tuesday.
While Jurgen Klopp's men couldn't respond to the Gunners pulling clear, City did on Thursday, with Phil Foden scoring twice in an emphatic 4-0 win over Brighton at the Amex Stadium.
One point behind Arsenal with a game in hand, City know five wins from their five remaining matches will seal an unprecedented fourth successive English top-flight title.
However, Guardiola expects further twists and turns in the coming weeks.
Asked if Liverpool were still in contention after City's win, Guardiola told Sky Sports: "Yeah. Many things can happen.
"What happened with Liverpool, losing to Crystal Palace and Everton, can happen to us. It can happen to Arsenal. No-one is safe. We have to rest. Now it is just about recovering for the next one.
"We have been here in the past but being here in the past doesn't mean it is going to happen. We have to do the things to make it happen."
City's comprehensive win – in which Kevin De Bruyne scored his first headed goal in the Premier League – saw them cut Arsenal's goal difference advantage to eight goals.
However, Guardiola believes it will be tough for City to close that gap, saying: "It is difficult to cut. The margin is so big. They score a lot of goals and don't concede.
"The main thing is to win the games. We have five games left and they are tough ones – it's a lot of games. We'll take it one game at a time."
Foden's first goal against Brighton – a deflected free-kick – saw him become just the third player to score 50 top-flight goals under Guardiola while aged 23 or younger, after Erling Haaland and Lionel Messi.
Foden is the favourite to be named Premier League Player of the Season, and while Guardiola believes he should be in contention, he says his player is more concerned with team honours.
"For sure, but he wants to win the Premier League," Guardiola said when asked if Foden deserved individual honours. "His influence in the final third was better than in the last two or three games. Today he was more calm, his decision-making was good and to score goals is always good."
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