Can Paris Saint-Germain get back on track? Are champions Lille in contention again? Could any top French sides face the drop?
Stats Perform aims to answer all of these questions and more as the new Ligue 1 season gets under way.
The Stats Perform League Prediction Model, created by Stats Perform AI using Opta data, has analysed the division ahead of the new season to assign percentages to potential outcomes for each club.
The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) based on teams' attacking and defensive qualities, which considers four years' worth of results, with weighting based on recency and the quality of opposition. The season is then simulated 10,000 times to calculate the likelihood of each outcome.
What does that mean for PSG and the rest of the French elite? Read on to find out...
POCH'S PSG TITLE FAVOURITES
It will surprise nobody, but PSG have been identified as the clear pre-season favourites. They are given a huge 79.5 per cent chance of reclaiming their title after falling behind Lille last term.
The signings of Sergio Ramos, Gianluigi Donnarumma, Achraf Hakimi and Georginio Wijnaldum should ensure PSG get back on track, while Mike Maignan, Boubakary Soumare and coach Christophe Galtier have all left Lille.
The defending champions are still considered PSG's most likely challengers, though.
Lille have a 12.4 per cent likelihood of retaining the championship, which puts them well clear of Lyon (5.7 per cent) in third. Monaco's 2.4 per cent bid to repeat their 2016-17 success makes them the fourth and final side to be given any chance at all.
TOP FOUR SEEMS SET IN STONE
Four into three does not go, so at least one of the title contenders will miss out on the Champions League. They should all make the top four, though, with Europa League qualification guaranteed for fourth place.
PSG unsurprisingly look certain for one of the two automatic Champions League spots, rated at 94.9 per cent.
Lille are considered most likely to join them at 54.6 per cent, leaving Lyon to take third – the Champions League third qualifying round (35.2) per cent – and Monaco fourth – the Europa League group stage (40.0 per cent).
There are at least a clutch of rival clubs given a slim hope of crashing the Champions League party; Marseille (0.5 per cent), Rennes (0.2 per cent) and Montpellier (0.1 per cent) are all just about in the running for second place.
Interestingly, Nice – ninth last term but having recruited Galtier – are not given a significant chance of even making the Champions League qualifiers, whereas Lens (0.2 per cent), Nantes (0.1 per cent), Reims (0.1 per cent), Saint-Etienne (0.1 per cent) and Strasbourg (0.1 per cent) all come into consideration.
Every team in the league have at least a 0.1 per cent likelihood of finishing fifth – a Europa Conference League play-off round place – although PSG are joined by newly promoted pair Troyes and Clermont with the most remote chance.
BIG-NAME BORDEAUX IN BOTHER?
It figures that Troyes (38.8 per cent) and Clermont (34.5 per cent) are backed for relegation straight back down to Ligue 2, but some of last season's top-flight sides are also at significant risk.
Brest are rated at a 26.4 per cent chance of relegation, with Angers at 19.0 per cent and Lorient at 15.0 per cent.
Most interestingly of all, though, Bordeaux are third-favourites for the drop behind the two promoted clubs.
The six-time champions won the title as recently as 2009 but have been in steady decline, even if a 12th-placed finish last time out saw them steer five points clear of the relegation play-off.
Indeed, Bordeaux were in the European picture in late January before an awful run and they will hope new coach Vladimir Petkovic can ensure there are no relegation worries in the coming campaign.
Edwards urges Luton Town to ignore scrutiny on relegation battle
Rob Edwards is keen for Luton Town to ignore the scrutiny surrounding them in the relegation battle as they prepare for another big game against Wolves.
The Hatters sit one point from safety in the relegation zone after back-to-back 5-1 defeats against Manchester City and Brentford.
While Nottingham Forest also lost last weekend, being beaten 2-0 by Everton, Burnley beat Sheffield United to move them two points behind Luton.
Asked how he is handling the pressure of the relegation battle with only four games left, Edwards said: “The stakes are high already, we all know what it means and it's really important to everyone that's in this at the moment, a number of clubs that are still fighting to try and avoid it and be in the league next season, it's so important.
“Everyone wants to try and stoke the fire I think. We've got a title race on at one end and obviously, there's a relegation battle we're involved in. It's exciting, it's good that we're in the fight, and we've got a chance to get out of it, but really, all I am concerned about right now is our performance tomorrow.”
Glasner challenges Crystal Palace to extend winning run
Oliver Glasner is hopeful that Crystal Palace can maintain their recent winning run when they travel to Fulham on Saturday.
After a run of five games without a victory, the Eagles have won each of their last three games, beating Liverpool, West Ham and Newcastle United.
Their 2-0 win over the Magpies on Wednesday also secured their Premier League safety for another season.
Glasner has given credit to his team’s attitude in turning around their recent run of form but does not want them to slow down despite reaching their goal.
He said: “The players give us confidence because they are listening. Every day we were sitting here and having a meeting and showing them videos and nobody was sleeping, so that gives us good feedback!
"Now we have 39 points and I think it shouldn't be our target to say ‘39 points, oh well done, staying in the Premier League’ because then I would say 'come on guys, go wherever you want and take vacations' – but no.
"We want to improve, we want to win games, and we have the next chance tomorrow at Fulham."
Columbus Crew v CF Montreal: Nancy proud of resilient Champions Cup performance
Wilfried Nancy was delighted with the spirit and grit his Columbus Crew team displayed as they sealed a 2-1 CONCACAF Champions Cup win over CF Monterrey.
The Crew are in a great position to progress to the Champions Cup final after their first-leg win in midweek.
Now, Nancy will turn his focus to a league clash with his former club CF Montreal, but he stressed his pride with his team for their performance against Monterrey.
“I'm really proud of the guys,” said Nancy.
“Because we did a really good game in terms of when we had the difficult moments, we were together. And when we had the ball, we tried to play our game and we had good opportunities also, and we were able to unbalance them.
“We try to convince [the squad] that when we play high-level sport, it's a game of mistakes.
The idea is no matter what happened, can we find a way to bounce back? So we work on that during the practice, but at the end of the day, you have to live this situation. And I think that we've worked upon in the past. So now they’ve been better and the chemistry is better. And they were able to sort it out.”
The Crew are the reigning MLS Cup champions, though they have drawn their last three league fixtures.
While Columbus sit fourth in the Eastern Conference, Montreal are three points back in 10th place.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Columbus Crew – Cucho Hernandez
Hernandez scored his 34th MLS goal (including playoffs) in the Crew’s draw on Saturday. Only the Philadelphia Union’s Daniel Gazdag (36) has more goals than Hernández since he made his MLS debut in July 2022.
CF Montreal – Ariel Lassiter
Lassiter put CF Montreal ahead against Orlando on Saturday with an 88th-minute goal, only to see the Lions equalize in stoppage time. It marked just the second time in club history that Montreal scored a go-ahead goal after the 75th minute but failed to win the match, also doing so against the Fire in 2017.
MATCH PREDICTION: COLUMBUS WIN
Montreal have lost 17 of their 25 away matches in all competitions (W5 D3) dating back to the start of last season, being outscored, 56-21, in those games.
Columbus are unbeaten in 17 straight regular-season home matches (W12 D5) following a pair of draws with D.C. United and the Portland Timbers. The only longer run in club history was a 22-match streak in 2008—09.
Columbus won both of their matches against Montreal last season after winning just two of the previous eight (D2 L4). Montreal (2-1 in August 2022) are one of two visiting teams to record a win at Lower.com Field since June 2022.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Columbus Crew – 56.4%
CF Montreal – 18.6%
Draw – 25%
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