Inter beat Juventus. Juventus beat Milan. Milan beat Inter. For once it has been tough to predict the title race in Serie A.
Winning the Scudetto was not enough for Maurizio Sarri to keep his job at Juve last season, meaning Andrea Pirlo is under significant pressure as the Bianconeri chase a 10th straight league crown.
However, they have struggled to convince under the former midfield metronome and sit seven points adrift of leaders Milan in fourth, although they hold a game in hand.
There has seemingly never been a better chance for Inter, who are two points off top in second, and Milan to end Scudetto droughts that date back to 2009-10 and 2010-11 respectively.
Fans and pundits will continue to have their say on who will sit top come the end of the season, and the Stats Perform AI team have also crunched the numbers to predict the champions for the 2020-21 campaign.
With the majority of the 20 teams having reached the halfway stage of the league campaign, they have simulated how the rest of the season may play out.
The data model estimates the probability of each match outcome – either a win, draw or loss – based on each team's attacking and defensive quality.
Those ratings are allocated based on four years' worth of comprehensive historic data points and results, with more weighting given to recent matches to account for improvements or declines in form and performance trends.
The AI simulation takes into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes goals against and rewards them accordingly.
All that data is used to simulate upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution – a detailed mathematical model – with the two teams' attacking and defending ratings used as inputs.
The outcome of the season is then simulated on 10,000 different occasions in order to generate the most accurate possible percentage chance of each team finishing in their ultimate league position.
Without further ado, let's have a good look at the results of the simulation with the predicted final league table.
INTER END JUVE'S REIGN
Although they sit second at the halfway stage, our model predicts Inter will end Juve's dominance of Serie A.
Inter have a 35.7 per cent chance of topping the table for the first time since their treble-winning campaign of 2009-10 and it is projected they will do so by a two-point advantage.
Not only do Milan surrender top spot to the Nerazzurri, they slip behind Juve into third with the top three separated by just three points. It would still represent their best finish since 2012-13.
Juve's chance of retaining the title is deemed to be 23.1 per cent, marginally better than Milan's 21.6 per cent.
ATALANTA RETURN TO CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
Gian Piero Gasperini steered Atalanta to Champions League qualification for the first time in their history in 2018-19 and made it back-to-back top-three finishes last season.
They are predicted to return to Europe's premier club competition by finishing fourth, edging out Napoli – they even have a 6.8 per cent chance of pulling off an unlikely title win.
Gennaro Gattuso's side have a 17 per cent probability of snatching the final Champions League qualification berth, with Atalanta's prospects narrowly superior at 17.4 per cent.
Roma are predicted to fall from their current position of third down to sixth but that is still good enough for them to deny arch-rivals Lazio qualification to the inaugural Europa Conference League.
The top six may need to beware of Sassuolo, Hellas Verona and Sampdoria, however. Sassuolo have a 0.3 per cent likelihood of finishing inside the top four, while Verona (0.6 per cent) and Sampdoria (0.3 per cent) also have an outside chance of stealing European qualification, though our predictor suggests Lazio will finish 12 points clear of Sassuolo in seventh.
GENOA AND TORINO ESCAPE DROP
At the turn of the year Torino were rock bottom with one win from their opening 14 games and Genoa were in the relegation zone with them.
However, Torino and Genoa have both moved out of the bottom three by claiming six points and eight points respectively over their past five games.
The two sides are predicted to maintain strong enough form to stay out of the drop zone, with Crotone (20th), Parma (19th) and Cagliari (18th) projected to suffer relegation to Serie B.
It is by no means a guarantee, though. Genoa are only 0.2 per cent more likely to come 17th than they are to suffer relegation by finishing 18th, while Torino's differential between 15th – where they are predicted to place – and third-bottom is 2.7 per cent.
Guardiola 'would love to stay' at Man City beyond 2025
Pep Guardiola "would love to stay" at Manchester City beyond the expiration of his contract next year amid reports linking him with the England job.
Guardiola's contract with the Premier League champions expires in 2025, and some have tipped him to take the England job following Gareth Southgate's resignation.
In eight seasons with City to date, Guardiola has won 15 major trophies including six Premier League titles and the club's first Champions League in 2022-23.
Since Guardiola arrived ahead of the 2016-17 season, City have won more games (225), scored more goals (755) and earned more points (716) than any other side in the Premier League.
On Friday, he hinted his stay at the Etihad Stadium could extend beyond nine years, telling reporters: "When I'm leaving, I will say I'm leaving, but I didn't say that.
"We will see what happens. But I will not rule it out absolutely to extend my contract. I would love to stay.
"Nine years today at the same club is an eternity. So I want to be sure it's the right decision. Not just for me, for the club, for the players.
"Still they run like they ran for eight years, it doesn't matter the competition, it doesn't matter the tournament and this is what I have to see.
"I am sure eight more years I won't stay! It's good to refresh, for players and managers.
"At the same time we have had success and are still winning Premier Leagues, arriving in the last stages and playing competitions like the Champions League. This is my feeling right now."
Guardiola was speaking ahead of City facing Milan in the second match of their pre-season tour of the United States, to take place at Yankee Stadium on Saturday.
City are one of two English teams – alongside Chelsea – to have qualified for next year's 32-team Club World Cup, to be held in the USA.
Asked whether he would like to return stateside with City for that tournament, Guardiola said: "I would love to. Yeah, I would love to."
Liverpool 1-0 Real Betis: Szoboszlai gets Slot era up and running
Dominik Szoboszlai's goal was the difference as Arne Slot's first game in charge of Liverpool with spectators present ended in a 1-0 win over Real Betis in Pittsburgh.
Liverpool lost 1-0 in a behind-closed-doors meeting with Preston North End last week, but they were victors in sweltering conditions when their pre-season tour of the United States got under way on Friday.
Szoboszlai scored the only goal after 34 minutes, stroking his finish past Adrian after Mohamed Salah slipped a pass through to the Hungary international.
That goal came four minutes after Curtis Jones was forced off through injury, being replaced by 17-year-old Trey Nyoni.
Former Reds goalkeeper Adrian denied Conor Bradley as a strong Liverpool side chased a second, while Harvey Elliott nodded wide from a Kostas Tsimikas cross.
After Slot rang the changes with 63 minutes gone, Kaide Gordon missed Liverpool's best chance to make it 2-0 by dragging his effort wide, but it did not matter as a controlled performance saw the Reds home.
Data Debrief: Reds in cruise control
Slot had been expected to bring a slightly more measured approach than the "heavy metal football" preached by his predecessor Jurgen Klopp, and that was on full display on Friday as Betis were held at arm's length.
Liverpool enjoyed 62.7% of the possession throughout the match, though Slot will be looking for more penetration when they face Arsenal in the next game of their tour on Wednesday, having only recorded 12 touches in the penalty area to Betis' 10.
Sessegnon rejoins boyhood club Fulham after Tottenham departure
Ryan Sessegnon has resigned for Fulham on a free transfer, five years after leaving the club.
The 24-year-old signed a two-year contract with the Cottagers with the option to extend for a further year following his departure from Tottenham last month.
In his first spell at the club, Sessegnon worked his way through the academy over 11 years, scoring 25 goals in 120 first-team appearances.
He then moved to Spurs in a £25million deal in 2019, though struggled to nail down a place in North London, making just 57 appearances in all competitions, and scoring three goals.
"It's amazing to be back. Emotional, as well," he told FFCtv. "It's where it started for me, where everything began, and it's amazing to be back.
"It will always be home for me. I think it had the feeling that it was meant to be, coming back here, so I'm delighted to get it done."
Sessegnon is Fulham's first signing of the transfer window, though they have seen plenty of first-team departures already, with Joao Palhinha, Tosin Adarabioyo and Bobby De Cordova-Reid all leaving the club.
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