EPL

Premier League predictions: As Man City title tilt set to roll on, can Chelsea frustrate Arsenal?

By Sports Desk April 28, 2023

If a statement win was what Manchester City were after against Arsenal on Wednesday, then they got it.

City thrashed the Premier League leaders 4-1 at the Etihad Stadium to close the gap to the Gunners to two points, and Pep Guardiola's side still have two games in hand.

The reigning champions play again on Sunday, with a trip to Fulham on the cards. Arsenal, meanwhile, are next in action on Tuesday, when they host struggling Chelsea, who have lost every game under interim boss Frank Lampard.

At the other end of the table, Leicester City face Everton in a relegation six-pointer. In the race for Europe, Tottenham travel to Liverpool.

Fulham v Manchester City

City have won their last 13 meetings with Fulham in all competitions, only winning more consecutively against Watford (15 – 2013-2022) and West Brom (14 – 2012-2018) in their history.

Erling Haaland has scored 33 Premier League goals for Manchester City this season, a record in a 38-game season. He is one away from equalling the overall record for a single season, set by Andrew Cole in 1993-94 and matched by Alan Shearer in 1994-95 (34 goals) in 42-game campaigns. This will be his 30th appearance in the competition, with his 33 goals already more than 21 teams managed in total in their first 30 Premier League games.

Pep Guardiola has won 25 of his 38 Premier League away games against London sides, the highest win rate of any visiting manager to take charge of at least 10 such games (66 per cent). All eight of his defeats in the capital have come against either Tottenham (five) or Chelsea (three).

Best bet – City to avoid defeat: Fulham are winless in their last 15 Premier League meetings with City (D3 L12) since a 3-1 away win in April 2009. They have lost the last 10 in a row by an aggregate score of 28-4.

Long shot – Fulham to keep a clean sheet: Fulham have kept just one clean sheet in their 29 Premier League games against City, a goalless draw in March 2004. 

Opta prediction: City, as expected, are made big favourites (64.8 per cent). The draw is rated at 21.9 per cent, while Fulham are given a 13.3 per cent chance of victory.

 

Liverpool v Tottenham

Liverpool have lost just one of their last 20 Premier League games against Spurs (W13 D6) and are unbeaten in 10 since a 4-1 loss at Wembley Stadium in October 2017.

Tottenham are winless in five Premier League away games, losing as many games in this run (three) as they had in their previous 16 on the road beforehand (W8 D5). It is their longest run without an away league win since a run of 12 between February and November 2019.

Liverpool have won their last three Premier League matches, despite conceding in each match. The last time they won four games in a row was in November and December earlier this season, also conceding in all four victories.

Best bet – Mohamed Salah to score or assist: Salah has been involved in 11 goals in his last eight home games in all competitions (eight goals, three assists), scoring at least once in each of his last six. Since he joined Liverpool in 2017, no player has scored more Premier League goals against Tottenham than the Egyptian (seven).

Long shot – Liverpool under 1.5 goals: Tottenham have conceded 31 away goals in the Premier League this season, already their most in a single campaign since 2008-09 (35). They have only kept two league clean sheets outside of London this season, doing so in victories at Nottingham Forest (2-0) and Brighton and Hove Albion (1-0).

Opta prediction: The supercomputer hands Liverpool a 55.2 per cent probability of winning this one, while Spurs are given just a 20.0 per cent shot. The draw has a 24.8 per cent likelihood.

Leicester City v Everton

Following their 2-0 win at Goodison Park in November, Leicester are looking to complete a Premier League double over Everton for just the second time, previously doing so in their 2015-16 title winning campaign.

Everton have won their last two Premier League away games against Leicester – they have never won on three consecutive visits to the Foxes in their league history.

Dean Smith has won four and lost none of his six Premier League meetings with Everton, winning three of his four at home against the Toffees. Only Antonio Conte (seven) has faced Everton more without ever losing to them as a manager in the competition.

Best bet – Leicester to concede: Despite Everton's woeful form in front of goal this season, they should be confident of getting on the scoresheet, given Leicester have conceded in each of their last 18 Premier League games, their joint-longest run without a clean sheet in the competition. 

Long shot – Everton to win: Everton are winless in their last 12 Premier League away games (D5 L7). Since beating Brighton 2-0 in August 2021, they have won just two of their last 33 away league games (D10 L21).

Opta prediction: Everton won this fixture last season, but Opta does not give them much chance of repeating that feat on Monday. Their chances of victory are rated at only 21.8 per cent, while the draw is 26.3 per cent, making Leicester (51.9 per cent) the clear favourites.

 

Arsenal v Chelsea

Arsenal have won four of their last five Premier League games against Chelsea (L1), as many as they had in their previous 23 against the Blues (D6 L13).

The Gunners are looking to win three consecutive Premier League games against Chelsea for the first time since February 2004. Indeed, they could achieve their second league double in three seasons against the Blues, having done so just once in the previous 20 campaigns beforehand (2003-04).

Chelsea have lost all five matches in all competitions since Lampard's return to the club, their worst losing run since a six-game run in October and November 1993. The Blues have lost 19 games in total this season, last losing 20 in a single campaign in 1987-88.

Best bet – Bukayo Saka 2+ shots on target: Saka has been directly involved in 16 goals in his 16 Premier League home games this season (nine goals, seven assists). He has both scored and assisted a goal in three different games at Emirates Stadium in the competition this term.

Long shot – Arsenal to fail to score: Only Southampton have kept fewer home clean sheets than Arsenal (three) in the Premier League this season. However, the Gunners have only failed to score in one of their 16 at the Emirates so far this term (0-0 vs Newcastle United in January).

Opta prediction: Arsenal have had a wobble that might prove costly in the title race but will be determined to bounce back. Opta makes them the favourites (43.5 per cent), with Chelsea at 28.2 per cent. The draw is rated at 28.3 per cent.

Related items

  • Arteta wants to prove supercomputer wrong as Arsenal prepare for derby test Arteta wants to prove supercomputer wrong as Arsenal prepare for derby test

    Mikel Arteta is looking to prove the Opta supercomputer wrong as Arsenal prepare for perhaps the biggest test of their Premier League title credentials, in Sunday's North London derby at Tottenham.

    Arsenal began the weekend one point clear of Manchester City at the top of the table, though Pep Guardiola's men have a game in hand and have been in ominous form lately, winning their last four league matches. 

    Five wins for City will ensure they retain their crown, and according to the Opta supercomputer, the champions started the weekend with a 71.7% chance of topping the pile, compared to 26.6% for Arsenal and just 1.7% for Liverpool.

    Arteta hopes to see Arsenal's figure boosted by a derby win, saying: "I don't know what to say, hopefully we can trick that computer and make it a bit higher! 

    "Maybe it needs to update the software, we need to help it or give it more tools. Hopefully we can change that!

    "We are there. We have to look at ourselves and try to perform in the best possible way to win our matches and I can't wait to see what happens.

    "We had a big win in the last London derby against Chelsea and now we have another big one. I'm sure if we're going to win the league, we're going to have to beat Spurs as well."

    Tottenham, meanwhile, need points if they are to overhaul Aston Villa in the battle for Champions League qualification, with fifth place now extremely unlikely to be enough.

    Ange Postecoglou, though, is more interested in seeing how Spurs measure up to a side they hope to challenge in the future.

    "We understand the importance of the game but ultimately, it's still about us measuring ourselves against the teams we want to be challenging on a more consistent basis," Postecoglou said.

    "It's a great opportunity to do that on Sunday."

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Tottenham – Son Heung-min 

    Son scored twice for Spurs in the reverse fixture against Arsenal in September – a 2-2 draw at the Emirates Stadium. In all competitions, only five players have scored more goals in the fixture's history than Son's seven. 

    The only player to score multiple goals in both north London derby matches in a league season was Arsenal's Ted Drake, who did so back in 1934-35.

    Arsenal – Martin Odegaard 

    Odegaard has been involved in six goals in his last six away appearances in the Premier League, scoring three and assisting three.

    The Gunners captain was in mesmerising form in Tuesday's 5-0 win over Chelsea, leading all players on the pitch for assists (two), chances created (eight), passes into the final third (34) and duels won (eight). A repeat performance would be huge for the visitors' title hopes.

    MATCH PREDICTION – ARSENAL WIN

    Tottenham have won just one of their last six Premier League games against Arsenal (one draw, four defeats), with their four losses in this span as many as they had suffered in their previous 16 against the Gunners (six wins, six draws).

    They also lost this exact fixture 2-0 last season, meaning the Gunners could win on back-to-back league trips to Tottenham for the first time since enjoying a run of three victories there between 1987 and 1988.

    Arteta's men know there is no margin for error with the title race in City's hands.

    Even a draw could prove fatal to their hopes – at the end of the 2015-16 season, the North London derby was the most drawn fixture in Premier League history, with 20 of 48 meetings finishing level (42 per cent). Since then, only four matches between these rivals have seen the points shared (27 per cent).

    Arsenal have kept six straight clean sheets on their travels in the Premier League, with only two teams ever keeping seven in a row – Chelsea from September to December 2008 and Manchester United from November to February in 2008-09. The Gunners should have enough to grind out a huge win.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Tottenham – 31%

    Arsenal – 41.3% 

    Draw – 27.7%

  • West Ham 2-2 Liverpool: Antonio header damages Reds' dwindling title chances West Ham 2-2 Liverpool: Antonio header damages Reds' dwindling title chances

    Liverpool suffered another blow to their dwindling Premier League title hopes as Michail Antonio's late header snatched a 2-2 draw for West Ham at London Stadium.

    Jurgen Klopp's side disappointed in Wednesday's 2-0 defeat against Everton, with Jarrod Bowen's goal and assist inflicting further pain for the Reds on Saturday.

    Liverpool responded well to Bowen's first-half opener, edging ahead through Alphonse Areola's own goal after Andy Robertson's 48th-minute leveller, only for Bowen to tee up Antonio's headed equaliser 13 minutes from time.

    This draw left Liverpool two points behind leaders Arsenal ahead of the Gunners’ Sunday meeting with Tottenham and one behind Manchester City – who have two games in hand on the Reds – while West Ham remain eighth.

    A tepid opening befitted two sides struggling for form as both failed to carve out any gilt-edged opportunities.

    Liverpool wanted a 27th-minute penalty for Angelo Ogbonna's tackle on Cody Gakpo and, though an offside call against Luis Diaz silenced those appeals, that passage livened the game up.

    Harvey Elliott's curling attempt was held by Areola after Vladimir Coufal went close at the other end, before Diaz blasted a low strike against the West Ham goalkeeper's right-hand post.

    Bowen saw a deflected drive parried behind by Alisson but the West Ham forward headed Mohammed Kudus' left-wing delivery into the far corner from the resulting set-piece two minutes before the break.

    Ryan Gravenberch flashed a powerful half-volley over immediately after the interval – and West Ham did not heed that warning sign.

    Diaz cut inside from the left to find Robertson before a slight deflection off Lucas Paqueta saw Areola caught off-guard as the left-back found the bottom-left corner via the post.

    Gravenberch arrowed narrowly wide before one-way traffic finally paid dividends midway through the second half when Gakpo's miscued strike from Trent Alexander-Arnold's corner forced Areola to turn into his own net after a deflection off Tomas Soucek.

    Alisson kept his side ahead with a remarkable stretching stop to thwart Emerson's volley, yet the Liverpool goalkeeper was powerless when Antonio headed into the top-right corner from Bowen's right-wing centre.

    Elliott almost snatched all three points in the 89th minute but his dipping effort found the top of the crossbar rather than the right-hand corner from long range.

    Reds falter once again

    Under Klopp, Liverpool have only won more Premier League games against Crystal Palace (13) than West Ham (12).

    Yet the visiting Reds faltered once more as what appeared to be a promising season continues to unravel in disappointing fashion for Klopp's final campaign.

    Having threatened an unlikely quadruple at the start of March, Liverpool now require a minor miracle – and slip-ups from Man City and Arsenal – to muster a slight shot at the title.

    Bowen on target but West Ham struggle at home

    Bowen had already found the net in the Premier League and EFL Cup against Liverpool this season and became just the second West Ham player to score in three different games with the Reds in a single campaign – after Geoff Hurst in 1964-65.

    His well-taken headed opener eased the nervous home crowd, yet this draw left West Ham with just one win from their last nine Premier League home games.

    That concerning home form may be what costs David Moyes’ side a higher finish. The Hammers trail seventh-placed Newcastle United by a point, despite the Magpies playing two games fewer.

  • Swiatek soars into Madrid Open last 16 after dropping just two games against Cirstea Swiatek soars into Madrid Open last 16 after dropping just two games against Cirstea

    Iga Swiatek stormed through to the Madrid Open last 16 following a dominant straight-sets victory over Sorana Cirstea.

    The world number one dropped just two games as she inflicted a comprehensive 6-1 6-1 rout on her Romanian opponent in the Spanish capital.

    Swiatek, who was runner-up to Aryna Sabalenka in last year's event, will play Sara Sorribes Tormo in the round of 16 after the Spaniard defeated two-time Australian Open champion Victoria Azarenka.

    The Pole is now 26-4 for the season, in which she has already triumphed at the Qatar Open and Indian Wells Open, as she eyes the ninth WTA 1000 singles title of her career.

    Data debrief

    Swiatek is through to her sixth round of 16 from seven main-draw appearances in WTA 1000 events on clay (85.7 per cent) - the highest percentage rate among players with at least five such appearances since the format's introduction in 2009.

    The three-time French Open champion also boasts the best WTA match win rate of any player since 2000 on clay (87 per cent). Overall, only Chris Evert (94.5 per cent), Margaret Court (89.5 per cent) and Steffi Graf (89.2 per cent) boast a higher percentage in the Open Era.

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