EPL

Premier League predictions: Chelsea to shrug off Everton, Kane can down Saints, but will Palace hold Arsenal?

By Sports Desk March 17, 2023

Arsenal crashed out of the Europa League with a penalty shoot-out defeat to Sporting CP on Thursday, and Mikel Arteta will be looking for an instant response in the Premier League.

The title is now their sole focus, and with Manchester City in FA Cup action this weekend, the Gunners can move eight points clear at the top should they beat Crystal Palace, who on Friday sacked Arsenal great Patrick Vieira after an 11-game winless run.

Palace are 12th but only three points above the relegation zone, and that picture could change by the time they play on Sunday.

After Nottingham Forest welcome Newcastle United on Friday, Bournemouth visit Aston Villa, Leicester City have a tough trip to Brentford, Southampton host Tottenham, and Wolves and Leeds United face off in another big match at the bottom of the table. Everton, who are also in the relegation scrap, play Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

Here, with the help of Opta data, Stats Perform has provided some key insights and predictions.

Southampton v Tottenham 

Between December 2019 and January 2021, Southampton won five of six Premier League games against sides starting the day in the top four of the table (L1). However, since then they are winless in 15 such games (D6 L9), conceding 43 goals and scoring just nine in return.

Southampton have scored at least once in each of their last 14 Premier League games against Spurs, since a 2-0 home loss in December 2015, but they have kept just one clean sheet in their last 21 against them, when they won 1-0 in January 2020.

In all competitions, Tottenham have lost each of their last four away games, the last three of which without scoring. This is Spurs' longest run of away defeats in succession since May 2019 (five in a row), while not since January 1983 have they lost four straight away matches without scoring (a run of five).

Best bet – Harry Kane to score or assist: Harry Kane has been directly involved in 17 goals in 15 Premier League appearances against Southampton (11 goals, six assists), having only had a hand in more goals against Leicester (22). The England captain has scored nine away goals in the competition this season – no other player in Premier League history has netted 10 times on the road in more than four separate campaigns, whereas Kane is on the verge of doing so for the seventh time.

Long shot – Richarlison to score: Richarlison was desperately unlucky not to break his duck for Spurs in the win over Forest last week, with a fierce finish ruled out for offside. The Brazil forward has netted five times in his last seven league appearances against Saints, making them his favourite team to play against when it comes to goals, but he is yet to score in the Premier League this season.

Opta prediction: Spurs are made favourites for this one by Opta's supercomputer, with Antonio Conte's team given a 54 per cent chance of victory. There is roughly a one in four chance of a draw (25.7 per cent), while Southampton, who prop up the table but could move as high as 15th with a win, are given a 20.3 per cent chance of claiming the spoils.

 

Wolves v Leeds United

Having been unbeaten in six league games against Leeds between 2017 and 2021 (W5 D1), Wolves have lost their last two against the Whites. Indeed, Leeds are looking to complete their first league double over Wolves since 2015-16 and their first in the top flight since 1973-74.

Leeds, who will be without key midfielder Tyler Adams due to a hamstring issue, have earned four points from their three Premier League games under Javi Gracia (W1 D1 L1), as many as they had in their 10 games before his arrival (W0 D4 L6). However, they are winless in their last seven away matches (D2 L5). 

Wolves boss Julen Lopetegui has won both of his previous meetings with Gracia in all competitions. These games came in the 2020-21 campaign, with Lopetegui's Sevilla beating Gracia's Valencia 1-0 in LaLiga and 3-0 in the Copa Del Rey.

Best bet – Wolves to avoid defeat: No side have fewer away wins (one) or away points (six) in the Premier League this season than Leeds, who have lost nine of their 13 away league games this term. Wolves, meanwhile, have won three of their last four home league games (L1), more than they had in their previous 12 (W2 D3 L7). 

Long shot – Wolves to score over two goals: Wolves have a shot conversion rate of 6.8 per cent in the Premier League this season, their lowest in any of their nine campaigns in the competition. Only once have they scored more than twice in a top-flight game this term, when they beat Liverpool 3-0 in February.

Opta prediction: Expect this one to be close, based on the prediction model, which makes Wolves the slight favourites (39.3 per cent), although Leeds are at 31.3 per cent. A draw is certainly feasible and is given a 29.4 per cent chance.

 

Chelsea v Everton

Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 27 Premier League home games against Everton (W15 D12) since a 1-0 loss in November 1994. Against no side have they ever had a longer unbeaten run at Stamford Bridge in their top-flight history. Everton managed a 1-1 draw with a makeshift side in the corresponding fixture last season, but a win still evades them.

Before this season, Everton had beaten Chelsea in each of the last four Premier League campaigns, although all of their victories were at home. They have not beaten the Blues in five straight league seasons since the 1930s.

Everton have won three of their seven Premier League games under Sean Dyche so far (D1 L3), as many as they had in their 20 matches under Frank Lampard this season (D6 L11), but again all of those wins have come at home.

Best bet – Chelsea to win: Everton are winless in their last 11 Premier League away games against London sides (D3 L8), failing to score in each of the last four, and Chelsea have only failed to beat the Toffees at home twice since the start of the 2016-17 season.

Long shot – Everton to win 1-0: If the visitors are to claim a victory, expect it to be a cagey one. In fact, 40 per cent (30) of Dyche's 75 Premier League wins have been by a 1-0 scoreline, including his three as Everton boss. Of the 52 managers with at least 50 wins in the competition, only Tony Pulis (42 per cent – 41 of 98) has won a higher share by a 1-0 scoreline.

Opta prediction: Given Everton's torrid form on the road – they have won fewer Premier League away games (three) and earned fewer points on the road (18) than any of the 17 ever-present sides since the start of last season – and dismal record at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea are the overwhelming favourites at 54.1 per cent on Opta's model. Everton are handed a slim 19.3 per cent chance of success, while the draw is rated at 26.6 per cent.

 

Arsenal v Crystal Palace 

Palace elected to part ways with Arsenal legend Vieira and could well be further embroiled in the relegation battle by the end of Sunday's game. After all, the Gunners have won their last five Premier League matches, netting at least three goals in four of those, including each of the last three. 

Arsenal have won eight of their nine London derbies in the Premier League this season (D1); in English Football League history, no side have ever won nine all-London match-ups in a single season. Palace, on the other hand, have won just one of their eight derbies this term. The Eagles have, however, avoided defeat in their last four Premier League away games against Arsenal, with each of the last three ending level (W1).

Since his Premier League debut for Arsenal in January, no player has been involved in more goals for the Gunners than Leandro Trossard (six – one goal, five assists). He has five assists in his last four Premier League games, as many as in his previous 64 appearances.

Best bet – Gabriel Martinelli to have 2+ shots on target: After missing the crucial penalty in Arsenal's shoot-out loss to Sporting in Europe, Martinelli will be determined to put things right. He is Arsenal's highest goalscorer in the Premier League this season with 12 goals, including five in his last five appearances. 

Long shot – Palace to keep a clean sheet: Palace have kept just one clean sheet in 22 away league games against Arsenal (49 goals conceded), a goalless draw in January 2021, while the Gunners have scored in all but one of their league games at Emirates Stadium this season.

Opta prediction: Arsenal are the favourites, although given the respective form of these sides, a 54.6 per cent win prediction perhaps feels a bit low – a reflection of Palace's recent unbeaten run at Emirates Stadium. Opta gives the draw a 26.5 per cent chance, while the supercomputer has a Palace win ranked at 18.9 per cent.

Related items

  • Rumour Has It: Tottenham line up surprise move for Frankfurt boss Glasner Rumour Has It: Tottenham line up surprise move for Frankfurt boss Glasner

    Tottenham and Antonio Conte appears set to part ways imminently following the Italian's explosive rant after their 3-3 draw with Southampton on Saturday.

    Conte's Spurs contract is due to expire at the end of this season and he has been linked with a return to Italy to be closer to his family.

    Spurs have been eliminated from the Champions League and FA Cup but remain firmly in the race to finish in the Premier League's top four, currently sitting fourth but fifth-placed Newcastle United are two points behind with two games in hand.

    TOP STORY – SPURS TURN TO EINTRACHT BOSS IN SHOCK MOVE

    Tottenham chairman Daniel Levy is looking to Eintracht Frankfurt head coach Oliver Glasner as a potential replacement for Antonio Conte, according to Bild.

    The report claims Spurs have already made contact with the Austrian's representatives about the surprise move.

    Glasner is yet to sign an extension on his deal from Frankfurt which expires in 2024. Tottenham have Glasner in their sights, having led the Germans to the Europa League title last season.

     

    ROUND-UP

    Manchester United and Newcastle United will battle it out to land the signature of Roma forward Paulo Dybala, reports Calciomercatoweb. The Argentinian is set to be available for a bargain price, given he has a release clause for overseas clubs to sign him for just £10.6million (€12m).

    – Relevo claims Chelsea are working behind the scenes to make Joao Felix's loan stay at Stamford Bridge permanent beyond this season. The Portuguese joined the Blues in January on a six-month loan from Atletico Madrid, for whom he penned an extension until 2027 on the eve of that move.

    – The Times claims Tottenham will demand £100m upfront for captain and star striker Harry Kane, who is out of contract in 2024. Manchester United have been linked with Kane, while Bayern Munich previously showed an interest, although that has reportedly waned.

    Juventus' pursuit of Chelsea's midfielder N'Golo Kante has been dealt a blow, with the Frenchman unlikely to leave Stamford Bridge, reports Tuttomercatoweb.

    – Football Transfers claims Arsenal will look to tie down Norwegian midfielder Martin Odegaard on a long-term deal until 2030. His deal expires in 2025.

    Arsenal are interested in Salzburg's 22-year-old forward Noah Okafor, claims The Daily Mail. Tottenham and Milan are also keen on the Swiss talent.

  • 'Shame to waste that performance' - Knicks rue loss as Randle makes franchise history in 57-point haul 'Shame to waste that performance' - Knicks rue loss as Randle makes franchise history in 57-point haul

    New York Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau says it was a "shame to waste" Julius Randle's 57-point performance in Monday's 140-134 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves.

    Randle produced a career-best scoring performance, shooting 19-of-29 from the field with eight-of-14 from three-point range, becoming the 13th different player this NBA season to surpass 50 points.

    The power forward scored 26 points in the third quarter, making franchise history for the most points ever by a Knicks player in any single quarter.

    Randle also became the first player Knicks since Carmelo Anthony in 2014 to reach 50 points, which was the longest active drought by any franchise, except the Orlando Magic dating back to Tracy McGrady in 2004.

    Only two players have scored more points in a single game in Knicks history, led by Anthony with 62 in 2014 against the Charlotte Bobcats and Bernard King with 60 in 1984 against the New Jersey Nets. Randle's 57 points was tied for third highest in Knicks history.

    Despite all that, the Timberwolves edged the Knicks, aided by 58.3 per cent three-point shooting.

    "It's a shame to waste a performance like that," Thibodeau told reporters.

    Randle had 52 points at three-quarter time and was on pace to surpass both Anthony and King's marks but he was humbled to be close to their company.

    "Those are legends in this game," Randle said. "And pioneers, specifically for this organisation, who laid the groundwork and led the way for players like myself to come behind them, be able to play the game I love. Be able to grind, put on that Knicks jersey with pride."

    Randle was left to lament fumbling a rebound at 137-134 in the dying seconds, allowing Taurean Prince to make a lay-up to ice the game.

    "Hopefully I will be able to [enjoy the 57-point performance]," Randle said. "But tonight, probably not.

    "Jalen [Brunson] got a defensive stop, we're down three, it's my job to come up with that rebound, 14 seconds left. If we do that, we have a chance to win the game - or not win the game, but at least tie the game, so I didn't get the job done."

  • Ratcliffe will not pay 'stupid prices' for Man Utd as bid deadline looms Ratcliffe will not pay 'stupid prices' for Man Utd as bid deadline looms

    British billionaire Jim Ratcliffe insists he will not pay "stupid prices" for Manchester United as the latest bid deadline looms.

    Incumbent owners, the Glazer family, tentatively put United up for sale in November and Ratcliffe was the first suitor to formally register an interest through his London-based chemicals company INEOS.

    He was subsequently among the parties to submit initial bids ahead of a 'soft deadline' in February, with Ratcliffe and Qatari banker Sheikh Jassim bin Hamad Al Thani thought to be the two frontrunners.

    While the exact value of the bids is unclear, the Glazers are reportedly looking for at least $7.2billion (£5.9billion) if they are to sell, which would be a new world-record fee for a sports team. The club was valued at $4.8billion (£4billion) by Forbes last year.

    Recent reports suggested the bidders are increasingly confident the Glazers will approve a sale, with Ratcliffe and Sheikh Jassim expected to submit formal offers this week.

    But Ratcliffe has given the clearest indication yet that he will not pay over the odds.

    Speaking about the process to the Wall Street Journal, Ratcliffe said: "How do you decide the price of a painting? How do you decide the price of a house?

    "It's not related to how much it cost to build or how much it cost to paint.

    "What you don't want to do is pay stupid prices for things because then you regret it subsequently."

    The second deadline for offers is apparently set for Wednesday, with Sky Sports claiming there could be as many as eight official bids.

    Ratcliffe, a life-long United fan, was spotted at Old Trafford last Friday following a meeting with club officials.

    Associates of Sheikh Jassim are said to have been in Manchester the day before, though he himself was not in attendance.

© 2023 SportsMaxTV All Rights Reserved.