Patrick Mahomes acknowledges he will be relying on "adrenaline" to carry him through an AFC Championship Game in which the Kansas City Chiefs will be thirsty for revenge against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Mahomes sustained a high ankle sprain last week, an injury that could have ruled the Chiefs quarterback out for the rest of the postseason.
But the MVP frontrunner is set for a swift recovery after his return to practice this week went "better than I expected".
Mahomes is still restricted in his movement, however, as he said on Thursday: "I feel like I can still do a lot of things, but we'll see as we get closer and closer.
"We'll see during the game. You can't fully do exactly what it's going to be like in those moments in the game.
"All I can do is prepare myself the best way possible, and then when we get in the game, you hope adrenaline takes over and you can make those throws when you need to."
The concern for the Chiefs is the Bengals won this game last year, again at Arrowhead Stadium, when Mahomes was fully fit.
This is the first time a conference championship has been repeated in consecutive years since the New England Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens played back-to-back AFC Championship Games in 2011 and 2012, with both of those in Foxborough.
However, the teams split those games. The Steelers, against the Houston Oilers in Pittsburgh in 1978 and 1979, are the only team to have beaten the same opposition at the same venue in successive conference championships.
The Bengals will be confident of joining that company, however, as they have won all three of their conference championship appearances, a record only bettered by the 5-0 New York Giants.
Cincy are also 3-0 in their past three games against the Chiefs, although the margin of victory has been just three points on each occasion. No team have ever won four consecutive games against a single opponent by exactly three points.
If nothing else, this is familiar territory for the Chiefs, who will have hosted five AFC Championship Games in a row.
No other team in either conference have hosted more than three straight championships, although Kansas City are 2-2 over the first four.
Austin FC v Houston Dynamo: Olsen reveals 'tough conversations' as derby looms
Ben Olsen had to hold a few "tough conversations" to get the Houston Dynamo out of their slump, with Saturday's Texas derby at Austin FC offering them the chance for back-to-back wins.
The Dynamo approached Saturday's trip to Sporting Kansas City both winless and goalless in three MLS matches (one draw, two defeats), while they were also dumped out of the U.S. Open Cup by Detroit City FC.
However, goals from Hector Herrera and Ibrahim Aliyu handed them a 2-1 road win and lifted them into the top seven of the Western Conference – above Austin by a single point.
Speaking ahead of Wednesday's grudge match against a team that won the reverse fixture less than a month ago, Olsen credited his players for coming through a tough patch.
"I think some people were questioning us, and we've had a few tough conversations, particularly with the U.S. Open cup knockout. This was just a really good response," he said.
"We have to figure out when we are at our best, to think, 'who are we, at our best?'
"It was our defensive effort that we hung our hat on last year, so it's a bit of a renewed feeling of that being there."
Austin, by contrast, were on a run of four wins in six games before they were beaten 2-1 by another Texas rival in FC Dallas on Saturday.
Despite that reverse, centre-back Julio Cascante has praised the defensive work done by coach Josh Wolff, with Austin looking far more competitive than was the case in their dismal 2023 season.
"Despite everything, we've worked very hard on the defensive side," Cascante said.
"Emphasis has been placed on the defensive side, but defending is done as an entire team. It starts with the number nine. I think that makes the difference."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Austin FC – Sebastian Driussi
Driussi scored a consolation from the penalty spot at Dallas on Saturday, his third goal of the season in eight MLS starts.
Only Diego Rubio, who has started three additional games, has matched that tally for Austin this year. The Argentine will be looking to carry his team's attacking hopes again here.
Houston Dynamo – Amine Bassi
Bassi recorded his third assist of the season by teeing up Hector Herrera's 31st-minute strike against Sporting on Saturday.
All three of Bassi's assists have come on goals from outside the box this season – Houston's only three strikes from outside the penalty area.
MATCH PREDICTION – AUSTIN FC WIN
Houston have won three of their first five road matches this year, having only recorded more than three regular-season away wins in one of the last 10 campaigns, winning four times on their travels in 2022.
However, Austin have won all four of their previous home matches against Houston, netting multiple goals in each contest. The Dynamo are one of two teams – alongside Kansas City – that Austin have hosted more than once while posting a 100 per cent record.
Austin have also won three straight at home after only winning once in their previous 10 outings at Q2 Stadium. Back on home soil after Saturday's derby loss, they will expect a different result.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Austin FC – 44.9%
Houston Dynamo – 26.9%
Draw – 28.2%
FC Cincinnati v Atlanta United: Noonan demands in-form hosts stay humble
Pat Noonan will not let his FC Cincinnati team get too high following Saturday's memorable win over their rivals Columbus Crew, warning Atlanta United will offer them a stern test on Wednesday.
Cincinnati recorded a huge 2-1 road win over the MLS Cup holders last time out, with Kevin Kelsy and Luciano Acosta on target.
That victory – their fourth in a row – kept them three points behind Inter Miami at the Eastern Conference summit, but Noonan says any drop-off in midweek will be punished.
"The sign of a good team is when you have a poor performance or result, how do you respond to it and come back and have a better performance, or have a better result?" Noonan said.
"On the other side, when you have a good performance, how do you respond to that? Obviously, we have a short turnaround against a difficult opponent who we've just seen.
"If we don't turn it around the right way and if we're not prepared for Atlanta, we'll get humbled very quickly. Just like we can't get too low with bad performances, we can't get too high."
Atlanta, meanwhile, are 12 points behind Cincinnati in 10 th place, having been beaten 3-2 by D.C. United on Saturday.
They also lost 2-1 to Cincinnati when the sides last met in April, with two goals in two second-half minutes handing the Orange and Blue a comeback victory.
Asked what he would look to change ahead of Wednesday's rematch, boss Gonzalo Pineda said: "Simplify the message. It's about putting the players in a position to succeed, giving them tools, and the message that sometimes less is more."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
FC Cincinnati – Luciano Acosta
Acosta has scored in four consecutive games, tied for the longest goalscoring streak in MLS play in Cincinnati's history.
He also had a four-game streak last June while Brandon Vazquez did so between July and August in 2022. Will he break new ground on Wednesday?
Atlanta United – Thiago Almada
Almada scored from the penalty spot against D.C. last time out, with one of his five shots in the game.
He has recorded five MLS games this year with at least five attempts at goal, with only Denis Bouanga (eight) and Lionel Messi (six) having more. He also netted his team's only goal when they last faced Cincinnati on April 20.
MATCH PREDICTION – FC CINCINNATI WIN
Atlanta are unbeaten in five all-time trips to Cincinnati in MLS, recording two wins and three draws there. Cincinnati are the only team the Five Stripes have visited more than twice without ever losing in MLS play.
However, Atlanta have only won two of their last 23 away games in all competitions (10 draws, 11 defeats) in a run dating back to late March 2023. No MLS team has fewer away wins in all competitions in that time.
Cincinnati have won their last four games and could set a new team record for successive victories here. With home advantage on their side, they are favourites to do so.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
FC Cincinnati: 45.4%
Atlanta United: 26.9%
Draw: 27.7%
Nashville SC v Toronto: Smith refuses to rule out playoff push
Nashville SC are ignoring any suggestions that an MLS playoff position is out of their reach ahead of the midweek clash with Toronto at GEODIS Park.
That was the message from the Boys in Gold head coach Gary Smith, whose side sit 13th in the Eastern Conference after their 1-0 defeat to Charlotte FC last time out.
Nashville are still only three points adrift of ninth-placed Philadelphia Union and a place in the postseason, with Smith refusing to give up hope.
"I don't believe, and nor do any of the guys in the group, that we are by any way, shape or form, out of the hunt for a playoffs position," he said.
"A couple of results get you right back in to the mix again, and that's, of course, our challenge over the next two games."
Toronto are fourth in the East standings after their 3-2 defeat against New York City FC in their last outing.
Visiting head coach John Herdman is looking forward to facing a familiar face in Jacob Shaffelburg when his side visit, however.
"He's flying at Nashville," Herdman remarked on Monday. "I've seen some stats at the weekend about his impact on their team and how many touches he has in that opposition half and how many crosses are leading to goals.
"I remember having him in that Gold Cup recently. He came off the bench and scored against the US. It shows where he's at now as a player."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Nashville SC – Sam Surridge
Former Nottingham Forest striker Sam Surridge continues to provide the goals for Nashville this term, scoring a club-leading five in MLS this campaign.
The Englishman failed to find the target against Charlotte, but managed a hat-trick against CF Montreal in his previous outing before that.
Toronto – Prince Osei Owusu
In the absence of the in-form Federico Bernardeschi, Prince Osei Owusu will be expected to step up against Nashville.
The Toronto forward leads the club scoring charts with five goals in 12 MLS appearances this year, two ahead of any teammate in the league.
MATCH PREDICTION – DRAW
Opta's win probability has Nashville as the overwhelming favourites for this one, yet a draw may be more likely considering each team's recent form and head-to-head records.
Toronto are unbeaten in five straight meetings with Nashville (W2 D3), with the Boys in Gold the only side the Canadians have played three or more times since the start of the 2022 season and not lost against.
Nashville have also won only two of their last 16 matches against MLS opponents in all competitions (D6 L8), though 11 of the 12 points they have collected over that time have come at home (W2 D5 L3).
Smith's hosts have conceded at least once in 12 consecutive matches in all competitions, too, their longest streak in club history after opening the season with three straight clean sheets.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Nashville SC win: 55.4%
Toronto win:18.6%
Draw: 26%
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