The 2022 NFL season heads into its final two weeks with battles for the postseason and for playoff seeding set to go right to the wire.
Nine teams have already clinched their place in the postseason, and there are seven teams with clinching scenarios in Week 17.
That should make for a fascinating slate of games in which the finer details that often prove decisive will be even more critical.
In a week where so many have so much to play for, Stats Perform has picked out the biggest games of the week and used its advanced data to break down the key matchups that could settle their outcomes.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Win Probability: Buccaneers 72.9 per cent
Key Matchup: Panthers' run game vs. Tampa Bay defense
The Buccaneers know the task in front of them at Raymond James Stadium: win and, despite an extremely underwhelming season, and they are in the playoffs as champions of the dismal NFC South.
Lose and the Panthers will have the lead of the division with the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay heading into the final week of the regular season.
Carolina stunningly prevailed 21-3 over Tampa Bay in Week 7 and the key to that win will again likely determine whether the Panthers can complete the sweep.
The Panthers averaged 6.4 yards per rush in that victory and head into this game on the back of racking up 320 yards on the ground in a dominant win over the Detroit Lions.
While Carolina had success running the ball against Tampa Bay in the previous meeting, the Buccaneers remain one of the better teams in the NFL defending the ground game. Indeed, their run success rate allowed of 33.7 per cent is tied for the fourth-best in the NFL.
If the Bucs can take away the Carolina ground game and force Sam Darnold to win the game on his arm, Tampa Bay figure to be excellently positioned to claim victory and the fourth seed in the NFC playoffs.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Win Probability: Vikings 56.3 per cent
Key Matchup: Justin Jefferson vs. Jaire Alexander
Way back in Week 1, the Vikings cruised to a 23-7 win over the Packers that set the tone for hugely contrasting seasons. The Vikings have usurped the Packers as the dominant force in the NFC North, though each of their 11 wins since the season-opening defeat of Green Bay have been by one score.
Though the Vikings' ability to close out tight games has been extremely impressive, their inability to put teams away earlier gives them an air of vulnerability that Green Bay will look to exploit as the 7-8 Packers aim to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Still looking over their shoulders at the hottest team in football, the San Francisco 49ers, in the race for the second seed in the NFC, and within touching distance of the Philadelphia Eagles in the fight for the one seed, the Vikings have no shortage of motivation to make it two wins out of two against their biggest rivals this season.
Their simplest route to claiming a comfortable win over the Packers is to feed the man who shredded Green Bay in the season opener. Justin Jefferson had nine catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns in that contest and has continued to embellish his resume as arguably the best wide receiver in football in 2022.
No receiver in the NFL has more receptions of 20 yards or more than Jefferson's 27 this season, and the Packers will be desperate to try to limit his impact at Lambeau Field.
The debate in Week 1 surrounded whether the Packers should have had cornerback Jaire Alexander shadow Jefferson and he will surely look to match up with the Vikings star this time around.
While not performing at his All-Pro level of 2020, Alexander is 23rd among outside cornerbacks with at least 200 coverage snaps for burn rate, which measures how often a receiver wins his matchup with a defender on a play where he is targeted. Alexander has allowed receivers to win their matchup on 33 of his 72 targets for a burn rate of 45.9 per cent.
Jefferson will still fancy he can get the better of Alexander and, coming off a strong performance against the Miami Dolphins, the latter's ability to contain one of the NFL's premier offensive weapons may have a significant bearing on whether the Packers are playing postseason football in the second full week of January.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills
Win Probability: Bills 61.5 per cent
Key Matchup: Joe Burrow vs. Buffalo pass rush
The Bengals and Bills square off in one of the most significant Monday Night Football games in recent memory with both teams firmly in the mix for the one seed in the AFC.
Defeat for the Bills would likely give the Kansas City Chiefs, who face the Denver Broncos on Sunday, top spot going into Week 18, but it would also see the Bengals leapfrog them and put Cincinnati in position to potentially host two home playoff games. The Bengals also hold the tiebreaker over the Chiefs but are a game back on Kansas City.
Even with a win in Buffalo, the Bengals would likely need help from the Las Vegas Raiders against the Chiefs in Week 18 to top the AFC. Their path to keeping those hopes alive with victory in Orchard Park surrounds the man who propelled Cincinnati to the Super Bowl last season, Joe Burrow.
Though the Bengals' offensive line has improved this year, it still ranks 24th in pass block win rate. Buffalo's defense, missing Von Miller following his season-ending knee injury, is fourth in pass rush win rate.
It is a mismatch on paper, but one Burrow can negate with his ability to get the ball out quickly and accurately.
Only Tom Brady (2.35 seconds) has a quicker average time to throw from snap to release than Burrow (2.45 seconds) among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts, and the Cincinnati quarterback has again been devastatingly accurate with his ball placement. He has delivered an accurate, well-thrown ball on 87.5 per cent of attempts, the third-best ratio in the league (min. 200 throws).
Burrow is a quarterback who in his still young pro career has shone while under the biggest spotlights. Both he and a Buffalo defense minus the player recruited in the offseason to help put the Bills over the top, will hope to prove they are ready to deliver in the pressure cooker of the playoffs by producing a decisive performance in a game that will go a long way to deciding how complicated each team's path becomes.
Buccaneers, Antoine Winfield Jr. agree to four-year, $84M deal
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have signed safety Antoine Winfield Jr. to a four-year, $84.1million contract extension, Winfield’s agent announced Monday.
The contract makes Winfield the NFL’s highest-paid defensive back and the first safety to ever hold that distinction.
Winfield’s contract includes $45m in guaranteed money. He had been scheduled to make about $17m next season under the franchise tag.
Winfield’s agent David Mulugheta posted the news on social media with a screen capture of the moment he informed Winfield that the deal was done.
"Couldn't be happier to make this call and let Antoine know he just made HISTORY! The first time that a safety is the highest-paid defensive back in the NFL," Mulugheta wrote.
"In a year where the value of safeties has been questioned, the Buccaneer Organization, the Glazer Family and GM Jason Licht have stepped up and taken care of one of their most valuable family members.
"Congratulations Antoine, you have accomplished something that has never been done before. You will forever be etched in history as the first. I appreciate your trust and cannot wait to see you back on the field."
Winfield, 25, is the son of retired defensive back Antoine Winfield Sr. and was drafted by the Buccaneers in the second round in 2020.
The 2023 All-Pro has become one of the best and most versatile defensive backs in the league and is coming off his best season.
In 17 games last season, Winfield set career bests with six sacks, three interceptions, 12 pass deflections, six forced fumbles and four fumble recoveries.
Winfield is the latest key contributor to be signed to an extension by the Buccaneers this offseason. Quarterback Baker Mayfield, wide receiver Mike Evans and linebacker Lavonte David all signed deals this spring to remain with Tampa Bay.
Detroit Lions QB Goff agrees to $212M extension
The Detroit Lions and quarterback Jared Goff have agreed to a four-year, $212 million extension that will make him the NFL's second-highest-paid player, multiple outlets reported Monday.
According to NFL.com, Goff's new deal will begin in 2025 and includes an option for the 2028 season. The Associated Press reports that the three-time Pro Bowler will receive $170 million in guaranteed money.
Goff's average annual value of $53 million per year during the extension is surpassed only by Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow for the highest in the NFL. Burrow will earn $55 million per year on a five-year, $275 million extension that begins this season.
The Lions have now locked up three core offensive players from a team that reached the 2023 NFC Championship game this offseason. Detroit previously signed top wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown to a four-year, $120 million extension and All-Pro right tackle Penei Sewell to a four-year, $112 million deal last month.
Goff was entering the final season of a four-year, $134 million contract he signed with the Los Angeles Rams in 2019. The Lions acquired the 29-year-old from the Rams in March 2021 as part of the blockbuster trade that sent long-time Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford to Los Angeles.
The trade has worked out very well for both teams. While the Rams won a Super Bowl in Stafford's first season, the Lions have gone 21-13 with Goff at quarterback over the past two years and reached the play-offs for the first time since 2016 after going 12-5 and winning the NFC's North Division in 2023.
Detroit then recorded post-season wins over the Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers to earn the franchise's first appearance in the conference title game since 1991.
Goff's 4,575 passing yards in 2023 ranked second in the NFL and his 30 touchdown passes were the fourth-highest total in the league. Over his three seasons in Detroit, the 2016 No. 1 overall pick has compiled 12,258 passing yards with 78 touchdown passes and just 27 interceptions for a passer rating of 96.5.
Prior to his arrival with the Lions, Goff spent his first five seasons with the Rams. The best of those campaigns came in 2018, when he set career highs in passing yards (4,688) and touchdown passes (32) while leading the Rams to an appearance in Super Bowl LIII.
Buccaneers, Antoine Winfield Jr. agree to 4-year, $84M deal
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have signed safety Antoine Winfield Jr. to a four-year, $84.1million contract extension, Winfield’s agent announced Monday.
The contract makes Winfield the NFL’s highest-paid defensive back and the first safety to ever hold that distinction.
Winfield’s contract includes $45million in guaranteed money.
Winfield had been scheduled to make about $17million next season under the franchise tag.
Winfield’s agent, David Mulugheta posted the news on social media with a screen capture of the moment he informed Winfield that the deal was done.
“Couldn't be happier to make this call and let @antoinewinfieldjr know he just made HISTORY! The first time that a safety is the highest paid defensive back in the NFL. In a year where the value of safeties has been questioned, the Buccaneer Organization, the Glazer Family and GM Jason Licht have stepped up and taken care of one of their most valuable family members,” Mulugheta wrote in the post.
“Congratulations Antoine, you have accomplished something that has never been done before. You will forever be etched in history as the first. I appreciate your trust and cannot wait to see you back on the field.”
Winfield, 25, is the son of retired defensive back Antoine Winfield Sr. and was drafted by the Buccaneers in the second round in 2020.
The 2023 All-Pro has become one of the best and most versatile defensive backs in the league and is coming off his best season.
In 17 games last season, Winfield set career bests with six sacks, three interceptions, 12 pass deflections, six forced fumbles and four fumble recoveries.
Winfield is the latest key contributor to be signed to an extension by the Buccaneers this offseason. Quarterback Baker Mayfield, wide receiver Mike Evans and linebacker Lavonte David all signed deals this spring to remain with Tampa Bay.
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