NFL

Brady's Bucs within touching distance of playoffs, Seahawks and Jets set for crunch clash

By Sports Desk December 30, 2022

A host of teams can start 2023 on a high note by clinching an NFL playoff place in an eagerly awaited Week 17.

There are also divisional titles to be won on New Year's Day, with Tom Brady's Tampa Bay Buccaneers within touching distance of winning the NFC South ahead of a clash against the Carolina Panthers.

The Seattle Seahawks and the New York Jets lock horns scenting a spot in the postseason, while the Miami Dolphins could seal a playoff berth when they do battle with the New England Patriots.

Here Stats Perform used its data to preview the biggest games with plenty at stake at the beginning of a new year.


SUNDAY (all times EST)

Panthers (6-9) at Buccaneers (7-8) 1pm

The Buccaneers can clinch the NFC South title for a second straight season if they beat the Panthers, a feat they have never previously achieved.

After a 21-3 win in Week 7, the Panthers are going for the season sweep of the Buccaneers for the first time since 2017. That was also the last season they made the playoffs.

Tampa Bay beat the Arizona Cardinals 19-16 in their final game of 2022. The Buccaneers have scored 21 or fewer points in all seven of their wins this season. 

Carolina overcame the Detroit Lions 37-23 in Week 16 behind 320 yards rushing and 250 yards passing. They were the first NFL team with 300 rush yards and 250 pass yards in a game since the San Francisco 49ers in Week 12, 2012.

Jets (7-8) at Seahawks (7-8) 4.05pm

The Seahawks have dominated the Jets in recent years, winning all four games against them since 2005 and conceding only 30 points in the process. That is just 7.5 points per game, which is the fewest allowed by any NFL team against a single opponent over that time.

Pete Carroll is in his 17th season as an NFL head coach and has never missed the playoffs in consecutive seasons. The Seattle boss is the only head coach in NFL history to coach at least 15 seasons in the league and never have consecutive seasons in which he did not lead his team to the playoffs.

DK Metcalf has had at least five receptions in eight straight games, tied with John L. Williams (1989-90) and Brian Blades (1995) for the longest streak in Seahawks franchise history.

The Jets are allowing 10.8 fewer points per game than they did last season (29.6 to 18.8), on pace to be the second-largest season-to-season improvement in the NFL in the past 40 years behind the 2000-01 Rams (29.4 to 17.1, -12.3). 

Dolphins (8-7) @ Patriots (7-8) - 1pm

New England are due a win over the Dolphins, who have beaten them in four consecutive games - the last of which was a 20-7 success in Week 1.

Miami are the only team to beat the Patriots four times in a row since Bill Belichick took over as head coach of the Patriots in 2000. With a loss this week, Miami would join Tennessee as the only teams this season with a winning streak of at least five games and a losing streak of at least five games.

Tua Tagovailoa posted a career-high 12.4 yards per pass attempt in last week's loss to the Green Bay Packers. It was the highest yards-per-attempt in a loss by a starting Dolphins quarterback in team history. He misses out this week due to concussion, though, so Teddy Bridgewater steps in.

New England’s comeback bid fell short in a 22-18 loss to the Bengals last week. The Patriots have lost nine straight games when trailing after three quarters, with only the Panthers (41 straight losses) and Seahawks (13 straight) having longer active streaks.

MONDAY

Bills (12-3) @ Bengals (11-4) - 8.30pm

The Bills know they will get a first-round bye in the playoffs if they see off the Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs lose to the Denver Broncos. Following Cincinnati's win over the Bills in the 1988 AFC Championship Game, the Bills won 10 straight in this series. Since then, Cincinnati are 4-2 against Buffalo, with the most recent meeting resulting in a 21-17 Buffalo win in Week 3, 2019.

The Bills beat the Bears 35-13 in Chicago last week, extending their winning run to six games. Buffalo have scored at least 20 points in each of those wins – they have just two longer streaks of wins with 20+ points – a nine-game streak in 1964 and a seven-game streak in 1990.

The Bengals' road win over the Patriots extended their winning streak to seven games, one shy of tying the franchise record of eight – achieved in the first eight games of the 2015 season (also an eight-game streak spanning the 1970 and 1971 seasons).

Joe Burrow had 375 passing yards last week, his second-highest total of the season. It was his seventh career game with at least 350 passing yards, fourth most in the NFL since 2020 behind Tom Brady (13), Patrick Mahomes (12) and Josh Allen (9). 

Elsewhere...

The Denver Broncos start life after Nathaniel Hackett with a tough trip to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in their first game since the head coach's firing. The Chiefs have won 14 straight games against the Broncos dating back to the 2015 season. Just five teams in NFL history have beaten another team 15 times in a row, with the last team to do so being the Patriots against the Bills from 2003 to 2010.  

The Philadelphia Eagles host the New Orleans Saints knowing they can clinch the NFC East and the number one seed in their conference with a win.

The Eagles are 11-3 (.786) all-time at home against the Saints, which includes an active three-game winning streak. That is the Eagles' third-best home record against any opponent all-time (3-0 versus the Texans and 6-1 versus the Broncos). 

A playoff place is in the New York Giants' sights as they prepare to take on the Indianapolis Colts. 

The Colts have won four straight games against the Giants, with the most recent win coming in Week 16 of 2018 with a 28-27 home victory.

There appears to be no stopping the San Francisco 49ers, who can win a ninth game in a row when they take on the Las Vegas Raiders. The 49ers are the only NFL team in the Super Bowl era to win eight straight games in a single season while holding their opponents to fewer than 80 rushing yards in each victory.

Related items

  • Ten Hag reveals Martinez could return when Man Utd host Newcastle Ten Hag reveals Martinez could return when Man Utd host Newcastle

    Erik ten Hag says Lisandro Martinez could make his first Manchester United appearance since March when the Red Devils host Newcastle United on Wednesday.

    Having made just 11 appearances during an injury-hit season, the Argentina international is set to return from a calf problem that has kept him sidelined since his most recent outing in the draw at Brentford six weeks ago. 

    Although, the game comes too soon for fellow defender Raphael Varane, who announced he will leave the club at the end of the season, but Ten Hag hopes the France international can feature again before he departs Old Trafford.

    The Dutchman said of Martinez: "I think he will return [against Newcastle]. He had some [training] sessions and, if everything is okay, he will be involved.

    "We are definitely planning [for Varane to play] for the last games. Not tomorrow, but we hope for Sunday and then, of course, for the last game [against Manchester City in the FA Cup final on May 25]."

    With two games remaining, the Red Devils are in eighth place and three points adrift of Newcastle in sixth, while the Magpies boast a far superior goal difference.

    And Ten Hag underlined the necessity to achieve a positive result to keep his side’s European qualification hopes via league position alive.  

    "It's a very important game," he said. "We have to do everything to get the win; we have to fight hard for it."

    Meanwhile, Newcastle will take a huge stride towards securing European football for a second successive season with a win at Old Trafford.

    And Eddie Howe, who revealed the Magpies are waiting on the fitness of Alexander Isak and Callum Wilson, is eager to ensure his players arrive there in the best shape possible. 

    "It is a massive fixture. We are under no illusions of the magnitude of this game," he said.

    "We must make sure our players go to Manchester United in really good spirits, confident and prepared.

    "We find ourselves in this position, and it is where we deserve to be. We will be hoping to finish off these two games strongly. Our motivation is to qualify for Europe."

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes

    In Fernandes’ absence, the Red Devils have lost both of their last two Premier League games.

    Since the Portugal international made his debut in the competition, they have won 40 per cent of their league games and averaged 1.3 points-per-game when he has not started; compared to a 53 per cent win rate and 1.8 points-per-game when he has been in their starting XI.

    Newcastle United – Sean Longstaff

    Following his strike against Brighton and Hove Albion last weekend, Longstaff has scored in successive Premier League appearances for the first time, with 60 per cent of his goals in the competition coming this season (six out of 10).

    Newcastle have never lost a Premier League match in which the midfielder has found the net (winning six, drawing three).

    MATCH PREDICTION: DRAW

    Man United have lost just one of their 28 Premier League home games against Newcastle (winning 18, drawing nine), going down 1-0 in December 2013.

    Meanwhile, the Red Devils have only lost their final home league game in one of the last 16 seasons (winning 11, drawing four), suffering a 2-0 defeat against Cardiff City in 2018-19.

    They are also unbeaten in their last 14 midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday) home games in the Premier League (winning 11, drawing three). Liverpool were the last visiting side to win at Old Trafford in midweek in the competition, courtesy of their 4-2 triumph in May 2021.

    Having already beaten the Red Devils twice in all competitions this season, Newcastle are aiming to become the first team to beat the Red Devils three times in a single season since Chelsea in 2012-13.

    The Blues were also the last side to beat them twice away from home in the same campaign (2004-05).

    Although, Eddie Howe has never won a Premier League match away in Manchester against United or City in 14 attempts (drawing two, losing 12). Only Steve Bruce has managed more away games in Manchester in the competition without success (26).

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Manchester United: 42.9%
    Newcastle United: 29.3%
    Draw: 27.8%

  • Pochettino: European qualification would be a major step for Chelsea Pochettino: European qualification would be a major step for Chelsea

    Mauricio Pochettino believes it would be "amazing" for Chelsea to secure European qualification ahead of their trip to Brighton and Hove Albion on Wednesday.

    After replacing Graham Potter in the Stamford Bridge dugout last July, the Argentine oversaw just three wins from his first 10 Premier League games in charge of the Blues this season.

    However, his side are finishing the campaign strongly and occupy seventh place – level on points with sixth-place Newcastle United and six behind Tottenham in fifth with two games remaining.

    "The team is doing well, in the second part of the season – in the last 26 or 27 games," Pochettino told reporters. 

    "If we can compete well in the last two games then there is a possibility to get into Europe, which would be amazing for us.

    "If we are able to finish well and get into Europe, for sure, we can start the next season with hope to be in a better position than we were in this season."

    Meanwhile, 10th-place Brighton have struggled for form in recent times, winning just one of their last eight league games – albeit that victory came against Champions League-chasing Aston Villa last time out on home soil.

    Nevertheless, head coach Roberto De Zerbi is targeting a third successive top-half finish in the English top flight.

    "I want us to finish in the top 10," he said during his pre-match press conference. "It’s important because, after Sunday, we go on holiday. When we’re on holiday, if we have no points [from the last two games], it will be a problem for me."

    De Zerbi also paid tribute to the departing Adam Lallana, who will leave the Seagulls when his contract expires at the end of this season after four years with the club.

    "I've been lucky to work with him because he is an honest guy, a top man," the Italian added. "I have learned a lot from him because he loves football."

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Brighton and Hove Albion – Joao Pedro

    Scoring the match winner against Aston Villa last time out at the American Express Stadium, Pedro became the first Brighton player to bag 20 goals in a single season since Glenn Murray in 2016-17 (23).

    The Brazilian has now been on target five times in the Seagulls’ last five Premier League outings on home soil.

    Chelsea – Nicolas Jackson

    The Senegal striker has been directly involved in five goals in his last three Premier League appearances for Chelsea (four goals, one assist), as many as in his previous 11 such games (three goals, two assists). 

    With 14 league goals already this season – none of which have been penalties – he could be the first Blues player to score 15 non-penalty goals in a Premier League campaign since Tammy Abraham in 2019-20.

    MATCH PREDICTION: CHELSEA

    Chelsea have won 29 points in the Premier League in 2024, with only the top three clubs – Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool – collecting more since the turn of the year. 

    The Blues have lost just one of their last 13 league games (won seven, drawn five), and are aiming to win four in a row for the first time since October 2022.

    Meanwhile, Brighton have now failed to score more than once in each of their last 11 Premier League outings, their longest such run in the competition.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Brighton and Hove Albion: 33.8%
    Chelsea: 37.3%
    Draw: 28.9%

  • Pochettino admits European qualification 'would be amazing' for Chelsea Pochettino admits European qualification 'would be amazing' for Chelsea

    Mauricio Pochettino admits it would be "amazing" for Chelsea to secure European qualification ahead of their trip to Brighton and Hove Albion on Wednesday.

    After replacing Graham Potter in the Stamford Bridge dugout last July, the Argentine oversaw just three wins from his first 10 Premier League games in charge of the Blues this season.

    However, his side are finishing the campaign strongly and occupy seventh place – level on points with sixth-place Newcastle United and six behind Tottenham in fifth with two games remaining.

    "The team is doing well, in the second part of the season – in the last 26 or 27 games," Pochettino told reporters. 

    "If we can compete well in the last two games then there is a possibility to get into Europe, which would be amazing for us.

    "If we are able to finish well and get into Europe, for sure, we can start the next season with hope to be in a better position than we were in this season."

    Meanwhile, 10th-place Brighton have struggled for form in recent times, winning just one of their last eight league games – albeit that victory came against Champions League-chasing Aston Villa last time out on home soil.

    Nevertheless, head coach Roberto De Zerbi is targeting a third successive top-half finish in the English top flight.

    "I want us to finish in the top 10," he said during his pre-match press conference. "It’s important because, after Sunday, we go on holiday. When we’re on holiday, if we have no points [from the last two games], it will be a problem for me."

    De Zerbi also paid tribute to the departing Adam Lallana, who will leave the Seagulls when his contract expires at the end of this season after four years with the club.

    "I've been lucky to work with him because he is an honest guy, a top man," the Italian added. "I have learned a lot from him because he loves football."

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Brighton and Hove Albion – Joao Pedro

    Scoring the match winner against Aston Villa last time out at the American Express Stadium, Pedro became the first Brighton player to bag 20 goals in a single season since Glenn Murray in 2016-17 (23).

    The Brazilian has now been on target five times in the Seagulls’ last five Premier League outings on home soil.

    Chelsea – Nicolas Jackson

    The Senegal striker has been directly involved in five goals in his last three Premier League appearances for Chelsea (four goals, one assist), as many as in his previous 11 such games (three goals, two assists). 

    With 14 league goals already this season – none of which have been penalties – he could be the first Blues player to score 15 non-penalty goals in a Premier League campaign since Tammy Abraham in 2019-20.

    MATCH PREDICTION: CHELSEA

    Chelsea have won 29 points in the Premier League in 2024, with only the top three clubs – Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool – collecting more since the turn of the year. 

    The Blues have lost just one of their last 13 league games (won seven, drawn five), and are aiming to win four in a row for the first time since October 2022.

    Meanwhile, Brighton have now failed to score more than once in each of their last 11 Premier League outings, their longest such run in the competition.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Brighton and Hove Albion: 33.8%
    Chelsea: 37.3%
    Draw: 28.9%

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