The Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings face off in Week 11 in a potentially pivotal NFC clash, and history says it will be a tense game that goes down to the wire.
Having stunned the Buffalo Bills in overtime last week, the 8-1 Vikings are only behind the Philadelphia Eagles in the race for the top seed in the NFC on the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Philadelphia's loss to the Washington Commanders on Monday gave hope to the 6-3 Cowboys that they can catch the Eagles in the NFC East.
To bolster their hopes of doing so, the Cowboys will need to come through what will likely be a closely fought contest in Minneapolis.
The last six regular-season games between the Cowboys and Vikings have all been decided by four points or fewer, the longest streak between any two NFL teams since the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers had a six-game streak from 2008 to 2010. The last teams to do so in seven straight meetings were the Carolina Panthers and Washington from 1998 to 2009.
Minnesota have made a habit of winning close games in 2022. Indeed, seven of the Vikings' eight victories have been by one score.
And, even if the Cowboys do take a double-digit lead against the Vikings, they cannot be sure of it being safe.
Dallas gave up a 14-point lead against Green Bay Packers in Week 10 and lost in overtime. That snapped a Cowboys streak of 195 consecutive wins when leading by 14+ points entering the fourth quarter (including postseason). It was the longest such run in NFL history.
Now the Cowboys face a Vikings team that has overturned a fourth-quarter double-digit deficit to win three times in 2022, tying the 1980 Miami Dolphins, 2000 New York Jets, 2003 Indianapolis Colts and 2011 Detroit Lions for the most such victories in a single season.
Dallas will be looking for a significantly better performance in pass defense this week, having allowed a success rate through the air of 52.2 per cent against the Packers. Only six defenses allowed a higher rate of successful plays in Week 10.
If they fail to improve on their struggles in the loss at Lambeau Field, it figures to be a long day for the Cowboys' defense against arguably the top receiver in the NFL.
Justin Jefferson produced an astonishing 10-catch, 193-yard display in the win over the Bills, including his phenomenal fourth-down catch that kept the Vikings' hopes alive in the fourth quarter.
He has 814 receiving yards over his last six games, the most in a six-game span in Vikings history and the most by any NFL player over a six-game span in a single season since Antonio Brown had 868 in 2015.
The level to which the Cowboys are able to restrict his ability to add to that tally may have a significant bearing on whether Dallas can put themselves in the mix to be top dog in the NFC.
Swiatek seals Italian Open hat-trick after soaring past Sabalenka
Iga Swiatek stormed to her third Italian Open title following a dominant 6-2 6-3 victory over Aryna Sabalenka.
The world number one took just under an hour-and-a-half to deny the world number two, and complete a hat-trick of triumphs in Rome.
The pair were contesting a second final in as many events, with Swiatek saving three championship points before eventually prevailing in the Madrid Open showpiece a fortnight ago.
However, it was one-way traffic this time around. The Pole converted two out of three break points as she controlled the opening set.
Sabalenka was the last player to deny Swiatek in a WTA final, that coming at last year's Madrid Open.
Although, the second seed was helpless as her opponent broke again in game seven of the second set, before wrapping up a fourth title of the season ahead of the French Open later this month.
Data debrief
Landing her third Italian Open title before turning 23, Swiatek is only the second player to achieve that feat after Gabriela Sabatini.
In fact, at 22 years and 352 days old, she is the youngest player to win 10 WTA 1000 titles since the introduction of the format in 2009.
The Pole also became the third player to triumph in Madrid and Rome during the same season, after Dinara Safina (2009) and Serena Williams (2013).
Edwards urges Luton to 'reward' supporters on final day
Rob Edwards wants Luton Town’s players to "reward" the fans for their support throughout the season when they welcome Fulham on the final day.
The 18th-place Hatters' survival hopes are still mathematically alive, but they require an ambitious 12-goal swing to leapfrog Nottingham Forest, who are away at already relegated Burnley, in 17th.
Despite their immediate return to the Championship being all but confirmed, Luton have earned many admirers this season, scoring 50 goals along the way.
In a 20-team Premier League season, only Blackpool (55, 2010-11), Middlesbrough (51, 1996-97) and Leicester City (51, 2022-23) have netted more times during a campaign in which they were relegated.
Edwards has urged his players to give the supporters plenty to cheer about and, regardless of the end result on Sunday, is optimistic about the club's future.
"We want to reward them with a good performance and want to win the game," he said. "I think it will be really good atmosphere.
"Everything I have had from fans has been really positive. Everyone has been proud of players and club and what they have shown. We want to make it a really positive day with the performance as well.
"We have given everything and given a really good account of ourselves. We have shown Luton to the world in a really good light.
"I'm really proud of what we have done the past 18 months. The club is in a really healthy position. We have been saying since we arrived, this club is only going one way."
With Fulham safe in 14th and looking forward to a third successive season back in the Premier League, Cottagers boss Marco Silva also paid tribute to the spirit shown by the Hatters during their maiden campaign.
"It will be a really tough game for us," he said. “Even if they don't achieve [safety], they are going to fight to the maximum – and this reflects Rob and his staff.
"For them to fight until the end to stay up, shows how much they have improved. Their fans are proud of their team and you can see it every time they play."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Luton Town - Alfie Doughty
With 42, Doughty has created the most chances from set-plays in the Premier League this season.
Meanwhile, only West Ham's James Ward-Prowse has registered more such assists (six) than the Luton full-back (five).
Fulham - Andreas Pereira
Pereira has created 84 chances in the Premier League this season, the most by a Fulham player in a single campaign (since 2003-04).
Meanwhile, his tally of seven assists is the highest by a Cottagers player in a single term since Simon Davies in 2007-08 (eight).
MATCH PREDICTION: DRAW
Both sides are on winless streaks; Luton failing to win any of their last five matches, and Fulham without victory in four attempts.
The Hatters have failed to win any of their last six league games against the Cottagers (drawn two, lost four), though both those draws have come in the two most recent meetings at Kenilworth Road.
Luton have only kept two clean sheets this season and conceded 81 goals – only letting more in during a top-flight campaign in 1982-83 (84).
While Fulham have kept two successive away clean sheets – after 12 straight games without one – they have not registered three in a row since a run of four in late 2008.
The Cottagers have not won their final league game in any of the last six seasons (drawing one, losing five), with a 2-1 win over Sheffield Wednesday in 2016-17 representing their most recent such success.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Luton Town: 33.9%
Fulham: 37.7%
Draw: 28.4%
Houston Dynamo FC v FC Dallas: Estevez hopes to take advantage of 'great opportunity'
Nico Estevez considers FC Dallas' trip to Houston Dynamo FC a "great opportunity" for his side to lay down a real marker.
Dallas defeated Austin FC 2-1 last time out and have now taken seven points from the last nine on offer on home soil.
Away from home, however, they have taken just one point from a possible 15 this season, with Estevez now after points plus performances in his side's fourth Copa Tejas outing of the campaign.
"I think the team is working well," he said. "They are energetic and we are improving both in results and the level of play.
"We have to continue growing. This game is a great opportunity to do so away from home; to be able to achieve something more than just points and to be able to achieve something important that will help us.
"We are going to have to do many things well to be able to win against a rival as important as Houston."
The Dynamo went down 1-0 to Austin late on in midweek, placing them eighth in the Western Conference and six points better off than their next opponents, having played a game more.
Houston have scored the fewest goals of any side in the West (11), which head coach Ben Olsen acknowledged is down to a lack of quality in front of goal.
"It's decision making and quality in the moment," he said at his pre-match press conference.
"It's not for the lack of getting in dangerous areas on the field. Checking boxes, you don't need a 2.0 expected goals to win games."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Houston Dynamo - Amine Bassi
The Dynamo had 17 shots against Austin without finding the net, six of which were on target - and three of those via Bassi alone.
Bassi's 1.8 shots per game is bettered only by Ibrahim Aliyu (2.5) this season among Houston players, yet he has registered zero goals thus far. That is something that must be put right.
FC Dallas - Petar Musa
Musa played a part in both of Dallas' goals in their victory over Austin, as he scored the opener himself and then assisted Jesus Ferreira for what proved to be the decisive goal.
The Croatia international has now contributed to five of Dallas' last seven MLS goals - three goals and two assists - meaning he is the man for Houston to stop.
MATCH PREDICTION: HOUSTON WIN
Houston's loss to Austin was their fourth defeat in their past seven league matches, compared to just two losses across their previous 17 outings dating back to last July.
Dallas have won three of their past four games in all competitions, meanwhile, having won just three out of 17 prior to this upturn in form.
However, not since November 2020 have Dallas won three successive games across all competitions, while the home team in this fixture is unbeaten in the last 20 encounters between these sides - albeit 11 of those ending all square.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Houston - 42.2%
Draw - 29.3%
Dallas - 28.5%
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