The San Francisco 49ers' running game hasn't quite performed at the standard they would have hoped so far in 2022, but they made a blockbuster move to address that on Thursday by trading for two-time All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey
San Francisco traded a second, third and fourth-round pick in the 2023 draft as well as a fifth-rounder in 2024 to prise McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers.
At his best, McCaffrey can be one of the most devastating playmakers in the NFL. Back in 2019, he became only the third player after former 49ers great Roger Craig and Marshall Faulk to rack up 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards in the same season.
In the two subsequent seasons, however, McCaffrey played only 10 games because of injury and will carry a cap hit of at least $12million in each of the next three seasons.
While he has played every game so far in 2022, giving up that level of draft capital and committing to pay that contract -- though it could be restructured in the offseason -- for a player with McCaffrey's durability problems represents a significant risk.
The 49ers' average of 4.43 yards per carry is 14th in the NFL, though they rank ninth in Efficiency versus Expected -- which compares the projected yards to the actual yards gained or prevented in specific situations -- on run plays.
San Francisco's run game has not produced at an elite level so far in 2022, but it is among the most efficient in the NFL.
The level of compensation paid to land McCaffrey suggests the 49ers believe he can lift their rushing attack to the very top of the league, but can he do enough to justify the outlay spent on him?
Still a potent running threat
Despite playing behind an offensive line in Carolina that ranks 30th in run block win rate, McCaffrey has, through the first six weeks, produced a compelling argument that he is one of the most dangerous running backs in the NFL.
While his 393 rushing yards are only good enough for 14th in the NFL, his advanced numbers illustrate his value running the ball.
His yards before contact average of 2.29 yards is below the league average of 2.5, with that figure a reflection of the disappointing blocking of the offensive line in Carolina.
However, McCaffrey did an impressive job of overcoming the Panthers' futility in the trenches, putting up 2.44 yards after contact per attempt, above the average of 2.05.
Additionally, he is also averaging 3.36 yards per carry on runs where there is a disruption by a defender, again above the league-wide mark of 3.05 and just below that of Saquon Barkley (3.37), who is second in the NFL in rushing yards with 616.
Though the Niners, who possess a young interior offensive line, are just 16th in run block win rate, that still represents a marked improvement on Carolina's performance in that area, indicating McCaffrey will benefit from blocking that will enable him to rack up more yardage in the backfield, rather than having to limit the negative impact of defenders taking advantage of blown blocks to break into the backfield.
Yet his rushing production is just part of the appeal with McCaffrey, with the potential added dimension offered by his significant receiving upside surely a huge factor in the 49ers' decision to part with such a substantial package of draft picks.
The receiving gold standard
Despite battling injuries for each of the past two seasons, McCaffrey still has an extremely strong claim for being considered the premier receiving running back in the NFL.
Since 2017, when he was drafted eighth overall by the Panthers, only the New Orleans Saints' Alvin Kamara (3,454) has racked up more receiving yards among running backs than McCaffrey (3,292).
However, Kamara has played 78 games to McCaffrey's 64 in that time and the per game numbers skew heavily in the latter's favour. McCaffrey has averaged 51.4 receiving yards per game across his career, the most among running backs since 2017, compared to 44.3 for Kamara in second. No running back has more receptions for first downs than McCaffrey (174) in that span while only Austin Ekeler (26) and Kamara (20) have more receptions for touchdowns than his 18.
This season, though the Panthers targeted him 43 times in the passing game -- only Ekeler (48) has more among backs -- McCaffrey's production through the air has not been efficient.
He has produced a burn, which is when a receiver wins his matchup on a defender on a play where he is targeted, on 17 of his 43 targets. His burn rate of 39.6 per cent is below the league average at his position of 47.6, and he has delivered a big play on 11 per cent of targets (the average this season for backs is 12.7).
Yet his final weeks in Carolina were ones with a team clearly ill-equipped to maximise his talents.
San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan should have no such problems, with McCaffrey likely to benefit from his new play-caller's ingenuity and from playing alongside another of the league's most versatile offensive weapons.
Doubling up on wide backs
McCaffrey may be the NFL's best pass-catching running back, and he is joining the league's top ball-carrying wide receiver, Deebo Samuel, on the San Francisco offense.
Last season, Samuel set the NFL record for rushing touchdowns by a wide receiver in a single season, eight of his 14 touchdowns coming on the ground.
When lined up as a running back for a downhill carry in 2021, Samuel averaged 6.58 yards per rush. He recorded 4.11 yards before contact per attempt, 2.67 yards after contact and averaged 4.77 yards per attempt on carries where there was a run disruption by a defender, his remarkable proficiency in the self-termed 'wide back' role fuelling San Francisco's surge to the NFC Championship Game.
This season, Samuel has 19 carries from the running back spot and is averaging 6.53 yards per rush and 4.61 yards after contact per attempt.
Jets-Vikings among NFL's international games
Aaron Rodgers will meet an old rival in a new uniform as one of five International Games matchups announced by the NFL on Wednesday.
Rodgers' New York Jets will take on the Minnesota Vikings at London's Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Oct. 6, one of three games that will take place in the United Kingdom capital in 2024.
The International Series will kick off on the league's opening weekend with a clash between Rodgers' former team, the Green Bay Packers, and the Philadelphia Eagles in São Paulo, Brazil on Friday, Sept. 6. That game will be the first of any kind held by the NFL in South America, as well as the first to take place on a Friday during Week 1 in more than 50 years.
The Jacksonville Jaguars will take part in the other two games held in London, and could face a rookie quarterback in each. Jacksonville will host the Chicago Bears at Tottenham Stadium on Oct. 13 and will meet the New England Patriots at Wembley Stadium one week later on Oct. 20.
Chicago selected 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams with the first overall pick in this year's draft, while the Patriots chose North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye with the third overall pick.
The Jaguars have been involved in more international games than any NFL team, as this season's matchups will be the 12th and 13th played in London in franchise history.
Munich, Germany will host the final 2024 international game when the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers square off at Allianz Arena on Nov. 10.
"We are delighted to announce these exciting matchups across London and Munich, in addition to the historic first game in São Paulo, Brazil, to complete the 2024 International Games slate," NFL executive vice president of club business, major events & international Peter O'Reilly said in a league press release. “As the league and its 32 teams continue to prioritise international growth, we look forward to building on the incredible fan experiences seen in Europe while taking the game to new fans in South America."
The Giants-Panthers contest will be the second to take place in Munich during the regular season, with the Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers having met at Allianz Arena in 2022. The NFL staged two games in Frankfurt last season, including a 21-14 victory by the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs over the Miami Dolphins.
The NFL also announced on Wednesday that the Giants will be the featured team for its popular Hard Knocks television documentary series to be broadcast in July. This season's episodes will chronicle the team's day-to-day operations during this offseason.
Additionally, the league announced that its two Christmas Day games of the 2024 season will be broadcast by streaming service giant Netflix.
The participants of those two games will be announced when the NFL reveals its full 2024 schedule at 8 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday.
Scheffler not looking too far ahead with PGA Championship looming
Scottie Scheffler admits he does not allow himself to look too far ahead as he prepares to launch his bid for a first PGA Championship title.
The world number one, who finished tied-second behind champion Brooks Koepka at Oak Hill last year, is the player in form and favourite to go one better 12 months on and claim his third major.
The reigning Masters champion is aiming to become only the third golfer since the turn of the century to win the opening two majors in a calendar year, after Tiger Woods (2002) and Jordan Spieth (2015).
Scheffler arrives at Valhalla having won four of his last five tournaments, and is 161 under par across his 10 PGA Tour events in 2024 - shooting 60s in 30 of the 39 rounds he has played.
One of only two players to finish inside the top 10 in each of the last three majors - along with Cameron Smith - big things are expected of the 28-year-old, but he highlighted the importance of staying grounded.
"I don't really try to look that far ahead," he said. "If I listen to the narratives around myself, if it was two months ago, it would probably look significantly different than it does now.
"I'm sure that wasn't a conversation you were all having two months ago and, all of a sudden, now it's like: 'Oh, he's going to win this many tournaments, or do that and do this'.
"I don't really pay attention to it, I don't really care about it. I'm trying to do the best I can out there each and every week, and as far as anything else, I'm not really too concerned with it.
"I may win a lot of major championships, I may be stuck at two the rest of my career. It doesn't really concern me at the moment. I'm just trying to prepare as best as possible for this week."
D.C. United v New York Red Bulls: Lesesne fortunate to work with 'incredible' Benteke
D.C. United coach Troy Lesesne feels fortunate to work with Christian Benteke, who is battling the likes of Luis Suarez and Lionel Messi for the MLS Golden Boot after a flying start to 2024.
Benteke has been in incredible form this year, scoring 11 goals in 10 MLS appearances to join Suarez and Cristian Arango at the top of the scoring charts, with Messi one behind that trio.
The former Liverpool and Aston Villa man scored a hat-trick of headers last time out, helping D.C. recover from behind for a 3-2 win over Atlanta United.
With Lesesne's former employers the New York Red Bulls visiting Audi Field on Wednesday, the D.C. boss will be hoping for more of the same.
"He's incredible," Lesesne said of Benteke. "He's got two hat-tricks this year, he's on 11 goals now and he's just such an incredible presence in our team, even beyond scoring.
"He deserves to be talked about first. He is a handful, and he allows other players to come into the match and have dangerous opportunities themselves. I'm very lucky to work with him."
Benteke's form has helped put D.C. in the playoff picture early on this campaign, but the Red Bulls are three points clear of them, sitting third in the Eastern Conference.
They also came out on top in a thriller last week, with two late goals helping them overcome the New England Revolution 4-2.
One of their goalscorers, Elias Manoel, says the Red Bulls' ability to pick up results when not at their best will take them far this term.
"It was really important to keep the consistency because even though we had some unfavourable results, in some games we didn't lose as well," Manoel said.
"This consistency is going to be really good at the end of the competition."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
D.C. United – Christian Benteke
Against Atlanta last week, Benteke became just the second player since 2010 to score three headed goals in a single MLS game, alongside the Five Stripes' Juan Purata in 2022 (versus Toronto FC).
New York Red Bulls – Elias Manoel
Manoel recorded both a goal and an assist as a substitute in New York's win over the Revolution last week.
He joined Cameron Harper and Bradley Wright-Phillips as the only Red Bulls players over the last 10 seasons to come off the bench and record both a goal and assist. Will he be rewarded with a start?
MATCH PREDICTION – DRAW
This will be the 107th meeting between D.C. and the Red Bulls in all competitions – it is the most-played match between two MLS teams. The Red Bulls, winners of the last three meetings, have never won four straight against D.C.
D.C. have gone unbeaten through their last three games, winning two and drawing one, while scoring multiple goals in each match. An entertaining draw could be on the cards here…
The Red Bulls are coming off a 4-2 win over New England in which they only had 33.1 per cent of possession. They have had four games with less than a third of possession and four or more goals in the last three seasons, more than every other MLS team combined.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
D.C. United – 39.1%
New York Red Bulls – 32%
Draw – 28.9%
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