The final round of Rugby Championship fixtures are upon us and two teams are realistically left standing in the battle to be crowned 2022 champions.
In what has been the most competitive tournament since Argentina joined a decade ago, all four teams have at one point looked good value to finish top.
New Zealand are level with South Africa at the summit, but they have the advantage in terms of the sides' net points difference, which may be used as a deciding factor.
The All Blacks therefore know a bonus-point win over Bledisloe Cup rivals Australia in a repeat of last week's classic will all but land them an eighth title in 10 years.
South Africa play Argentina, the only side entirely out of the running, later on Saturday and will know what they have to do to have a chance – if any – of overtaking New Zealand.
Here, Stats Perform previews the weekend clashes in round six of the championship using Opta data.
NEW ZEALAND v AUSTRALIA
FORM
New Zealand beat Australia 39-37 in last week's thrilling Test in Melbourne through a hugely contentious late try to make it four wins in a row in this fixture – their best such run since winning seven on the bounce between August 2015 and August 2017.
The All Blacks' record on home soil against Australia is even better, having won each of the last 22 Tests in Auckland by an average margin of 18 points per game. The last time Australia got the better of their neighbours in that city was in September 1986.
Australia therefore have a huge task on their hands at Eden Park as they aim to avoid losing three Tests in a row in the Rugby Championship for the first time since September 2013, with this current run following a streak of six wins from their previous seven matches in the competition.
The Wallabies, who need a bonus-point win and would then hope South Africa fail to get the result required against Argentina, will look to exploit any ill-discipline from their rivals. Their goal-kicking accuracy of 92 per cent on place-kicks this year (33/36) is some 11 percentage points higher than any other Tier One nation.
ONES TO WATCH
Will Jordan has made 10 line breaks for New Zealand across 2022, which is the most of any player from a Tier One nation. To put that into some further perspective, it is double the tally of Tom Wright (five), Australia's best performer in that area.
Australia wing Marika Koroibete could hold the key to breaking down the hosts. The 30-year-old has beaten 23 defenders in 2022 – the most of any player from a Tier One nation and two more than New Zealand's best Rieko Ioane.
SOUTH AFRICA V ARGENTINA
FORM
Following last week's 36-20 bonus-point triumph in Buenos Aires, South Africa have won their past five Tests against Argentina. However, a win alone may not be enough on Saturday and the Springboks could find themselves going all out for an emphatic victory in pursuit of New Zealand.
The Boks have some much-needed momentum on their side thanks to two wins in a row – matching the number they managed in their previous seven games in the competition – with those victories coming by a margin of exactly 16 points.
Argentina cannot be written off, though, having already defeated New Zealand and Australia during the first half of their championship campaign. Los Pumas have lost back-to-back matches since then, as many as they lost in their six games prior.
Turnovers could be a huge factor in this contest as Argentina and South Africa have won the most of any teams in this year's tournament with 22 apiece, while also making the most and second-most tackles with 706 and 600 respectively.
ONES TO WATCH
Springbok lock Lood de Jager has played a big part for his country this campaign and is second only to Italy's Federico Ruzza for line-outs won among players from Tier One nations in 2022 with 36.
Matias Moroni was among the try scorers for Argentina in last week's loss when finishing off a well-worked set-piece and is among the starters for this latest tussle. He has made dominant contact on seven tackles this year, placing him second only to Italy's Monty Ioane (eight) among elite nations.
Toronto FC v CF Montreal: Courtois accepts blame amid ongoing winless streak
Laurent Courtois has accepted that it is on him to find a winning formula as CF Montreal look to snap their winless run against Toronto FC.
Montreal were beaten 3-1 by Columbus Crew in midweek and are now without a victory in six games in all competitions.
That includes a three-game losing streak in MLS, leaving them 13th in the Eastern Conference, and Courtois is eager to get back on track.
"It's up to me to find the winning formulas and discern the phases of the game," head coach Courtois said after the loss to Columbus.
"We have to grit our teeth and find solutions. The difficult times we are going through help me identify my group. I want to know the players better.
"From all the negative aspects we can observe, I can identify a few individual aspects to improve the game or the team itself."
Monreal's rivals Toronto have themselves lost back-to-back games ahead of Saturday's Canadian Classique at BMO Field.
Nashville SC scored twice late on to snatch a 2-0 win in the Reds' most recent match, but acting head coach Jason deVos admits there can be no excuses.
"The last ten minutes, two mistakes cost us and that's the cruelty of football sometimes - that it's a 90-minute match and you need to put in a 90-minute performance in," he said.
"The players are aware of that. They know where the growth areas are for us as a team."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Toronto - Federico Bernardeschi
Bernardeschi missed the loss to Nashville but will hope to start this weekend in a fixture he has fond memories of.
The Italian has scored in each of his two home games against Montreal, making him the third Toronto player to score in two successive home games against them after Jozy Altidore and Michael Bradley.
Montreal - Joel Waterman
Montreal have conceded three or more goals five times across their 12 MLS games this season, which is tied with San Jose Earthquakes for the most in MLS.
They quite simply need to sharpen up at the back, with Joel Waterman needing to step up and hope others around him also do so.. The centre-back led the way for interceptions (three) and clearances (four) against Columbus, yet it was still not enough.
MATCH PREDICTION: DRAW
Montreal have won five successive matches against Toronto, following a run of neither side ever winning more than three on the spin in this fixture.
Toronto have won seven and drawn one of their eight matches in which they have held opponents under two goals since September, while they have lost all 13 in which they have shipped two or more.
Keeping the opposition quiet is therefore key, and this could present a chance to do just that against a Montreal side with fewer points (five) than any side in MLS since mid-March.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Toronto - 39.6%
Draw - 28.5%
Montreal - 31.9%
New England Revolution v Philadelphia Union: Porter urges players to cut out errors
Caleb Porter accepts New England Revolution must cut out the individual errors if they are to return to winning ways against Philadelphia Union.
The Revs went down 4-2 to New York Red Bulls last time out to make it four defeats in their last five games, and eight losses in 11 overall this season in MLS.
New England are bottom of the Eastern Conference, but Porter hopes lessons have been learned ahead of hosting Philadelphia on Saturday.
"Three of the four [goals NYRB scored] were individual mistakes that are easily correctable," Porter told The Blazing Musket. "We've gone to the training ground and corrected a few of those situation.
"But it's just individuals in those moments have to be better. It wasn't a bad team-defending performance, but three of the four goals we gave up were routine."
The Union have double the number of points compared to their opponents, having played one game more, as they occupy ninth place in the East.
The Us are themselves not in great form, though, as they lost 2-1 at home to New York City FC in their most recent game - a contest overshadowed by a raccoon that entered the field.
They have just two points from the past 18 on offer, meanwhile, and head coach Jim Curtin admits it is on him and his players to turn things around.
"The guys fight until the end, and we have to find a way to get out of this," Curtin said. "We're the only people that are going to get us out of it.
"The people in that locker room, the coaches, the players, they recognise that. They've shown they can beat anybody, and we're the only ones that can dig us out of this now."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
New England Revolution - Carles Gil
Gil got the Revs temporarily on level terms against New York Red Bulls, with that his 100th regular-season goal contribution in MLS. That makes the Revs' attacking midfielder the seventh European player to reach that milestone, and the second Spaniard after David Villa.
Philadelphia Union - Julian Carranza
Carranza was on target for the Union in their midweek loss to New York City, coming from one of nine attempts he had on target. The former Argentina age-grade international has now registered four-or-more shots in four MLS career matches.
To put that in perspective, the two other players to have done so in the club's history - Conor Casey and Andrew Wenger - have done so in a combined two games (one each).
MATCH PREDICTION: DRAW
Philadelphia have won 12 matches against the Revs across all MLS competitions, which includes MLS is Back, since 2018 - their best return against any single opponent across that period.
New England's tally of seven points from their opening 11 games is their worst-such return at this stage of a campaign in club history, with only two out of 17 teams in the post-shootout era (since 2000) managing to reach the playoffs from this position.
However, there is some hope for them this weekend as the Union's one point across their past five matches is their fewest across any five-game span within a single season since April 2017.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
New England Revolution - 36.1%
Draw - 28.8%
Philadelphia Union - 35.1%
Leeds United 4-0 Norwich City (4-0 agg): Whites book Wembley spot in emphatic fashion
Leeds United thumped Norwich City 4-0 in the second leg of their Championship play-off semi-final to seal their place at Wembley.
After a goalless draw in the first leg left it all to play for at Elland Road on Thursday, Leeds turned on the style in front of a raucous home crowd to cruise into the final on May 26.
Ilia Gruev settled the majority of Elland Road's nerves with just seven minutes played as he caught out Angus Gunn with a long-range free-kick, curling into the space vacated by the Norwich goalkeeper's expectation of a cross.
Joel Piroe then doubled the hosts' advantage 13 minutes later, again capitalising on poor goalkeeping to beat Gunn to Wilfried Gnonto's cross and nod home.
The tie was effectively over five minutes from half-time, Georginio Rutter getting on the end of Crysencio Summerville's squared pass to rifle off the underside of the crossbar and in.
And after Gunn spilled Gnonto's low shot in the second half, Rutter cut the ball back for Summerville to poke home and secure Leeds' place in next Sunday's final, where they will meet either Southampton or West Brom.
Data debrief
Leeds may have looked pretty blunt in attack at Carrow Road, but that was far from the case on home soil as they put the Canaries to the sword in brutal fashion while keeping a 21st Championship clean sheet this season, more than any other side.
Daniel Farke's men produced 2.45 xG (expected goals) to Norwich's 0.51, while Summerville made it 20 league goals for the season, more than any other Leeds player.
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