Welcome to the weird world of pandemic era men's tennis, where the world number five is unmistakably the man to beat.
Novak Djokovic sits head and shoulders above the rest for now, and those ranked higher would surely recognise that too, as the Australian Open arrives.
The 35-year-old Djokovic is playing the tennis of a 25-year-old, and being allowed his liberty after arriving in Australia is good news for him, auspicious for the rest of the Melbourne Park field.
Djokovic was being packed off on a flight out of the country around this time last year, after a saga that made minor international celebrities out of local journalists who could interpret the ins and outs of court proceedings.
He remains unvaccinated against COVID-19 as far as is known, but Australia has relaxed its border controls and rolled out the red carpet for Djokovic this time, rather than arrange for him to be detained.
Had he been allowed to play in Australia and North America last season, Djokovic would surely have remained on the top rung of the rankings ladder.
Over the coming fortnight, Djokovic will chase down a 10th Australian Open title and a record-equalling 22nd men's singles major.
What might stop him reaching those goals? Stats Perform has looked at areas where there might be a crumb of hope for his rivals.
Frosty reception?
There might be the odd jeer. He has never been universally popular and he has, through his vaccination choices, seemingly given those that disliked him anyway another stick to beat him with.
But look, if you think crowd pressure is going to get to Novak Djokovic, you haven't watched enough Novak Djokovic. Move on.
Besides, his 'Nole' army is sure to mobilise in Melbourne. He won't be found wanting for support.
Weight of expectation
The greats in sport rarely get flustered, but perhaps these are the moments, as history approaches, when even a model of focus such as Djokovic might miss a step.
You can look at the 2021 US Open final, when Djokovic was chasing a rare Grand Slam of all four majors in the calendar year, only to lose in straight sets to Daniil Medvedev in the Flushing Meadows final.
He would have gone to 21 slams with that win, too, edging ahead of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer with whom he was locked on 20 majors. Instead he was flat, out of gas. The greats do have bad days, but they're rare.
Nadal got the jump on both Djokovic and Federer by winning the Australian and French titles last year to unexpectedly surge to 22 slams, before Djokovic took Wimbledon to narrow the gap and Federer retired to make it a two-man race.
Djokovic has won four of his five finals since Wimbledon, with the exception being a surprising loss to Holger Rune at the Paris Masters.
If he loses, it might have to be early, while still relatively cold. Djokovic has a 100 per cent strike rate once he reaches the semi-finals in Melbourne, never failing to take the title once he reaches the final four.
The #NextGen stars
Who are we looking at here, now we know Carlos Alcaraz is going to be absent? The world number one's hamstring blow has only boosted Djokovic's title chances, while removing the tantalising prospect of a first grand slam match-up between the pair. To date, they have only played once, with Alcaraz winning a tight contest on clay in Madrid last season.
In fact, who even is #NextGen? Stefanos Tsitsipas has been around forever, it feels, but is just 24, the same age as Casper Ruud, who is very much on the rise after two slam finals last season. World number three Ruud is just about #NextGen, but fourth-ranked Tsitsipas probably isn't. His slam results have tailed off, and it would be a significant surprise if the Greek made it to the final from the top half of the draw. He has done well in Australia over the years though, with semi-final runs in three of the last four seasons.
Norwegian Ruud is a potential semi-final opponent for Djokovic, and that could deliver drama. Felix Auger-Aliassime is on the other side of the draw and won four titles last year, yet all were relative tiddlers, while it might be too soon for Rune to win over five sets against an all-time great, but he is a possible quarter-final foe for Djokovic.
So is a certain other player, who long left behind the #NextGen ranks...
Nicholas Hilmy Kyrgios
Nick Kyrgios versus Rune in the third round is a lip-smacking prospect. And if that happens and Kyrgios comes through it, despite having not played on tour yet this year, the prospect of a quarter-final against Djokovic would likely loom large.
Tennis being tennis, strange things can happen, but given his kind draw it is hard to see anyone beating Djokovic before the quarter-final stage. Should it be Kyrgios waiting for him at that point, it will be popcorn at the ready.
Last year's Wimbledon final was decided by a fourth-set tie-break, rather than what would have been a dishy fifth set, and Djokovic would again fancy getting the better ot the bellicose but hyper-talented Australian.
Yet Kyrgios has beaten Djokovic twice in their three career meetings, so this is potentially the real landmine on the path to the final. If someone can defuse Kyrgios in the early rounds, Djokovic would have no complaints whatsoever.
Djokovic's own body might fail him
Djokovic abandoned a practice session in Melbourne out of caution over a hamstring issue, but by Friday he was fit enough to face Kyrgios in an exhibition on Rod Laver Arena.
Had he held any serious fitness worries, he surely would have given that a swerve. Showing up sent a message to the field.
This is not to say Djokovic's health will hold and his body will last the distance, but then the same is true of everyone in the draw. This is tennis at the highest level and Djokovic has fought his way to grand slam titles while carrying injury worries in the past, and you suspect he will again, probably as soon as Sunday, January 29.
Raducanu withdraws from French Open qualifying
Emma Raducanu has withdrawn from French Open qualifying, which starts on Monday.
Having endured an injury-hit few years since her 2021 US Open triumph, Raducanu was able to enter the year's second grand slam with a protected ranking of 103rd.
However, that was not enough to put her on the automatic entry list and she was not awarded a wildcard, making her third alternate for the women's draw.
No reason has been given for Raducanu's withdrawal from next week's qualifying tournament, and she can now only feature at Roland-Garros if three players drop out.
Raducanu was beaten 6-2 6-2 by Argentine qualifier Maria Lourdes Carle in the first round of the Madrid Open last month, subsequently saying she was "mentally and emotionally exhausted".
A host of withdrawals meant she did not have to go through qualifying for the Australian Open earlier this year, though she was beaten by China's Wang Yafan in the second round.
Raducanu has not made it past the second round in six major appearances since her triumph at Flushing Meadows, and she missed the French Open, Wimbledon and the US Open last year after undergoing wrist and ankle surgeries.
Emery admits 'I have my dreams' with Villa after sealing Champions League qualification
Unai Emery has his sights set on winning the Premier League or Champions League with Aston Villa after securing a top-four finish earlier this week.
Fifth-place Tottenham's defeat to title-chasing Manchester City on Tuesday meant Villa will play in Europe's premier club competition next season for the first time in 41 years.
Emery's side conclude a memorable season – in which they also reached the Europa Conference League semi-finals – away at Crystal Palace on the final day.
And the Spaniard is already focused on achieving bigger and better things with Villa.
"It really was amazing when the [Tottenham-Manchester City] match finished," he smiled. "At the beginning of the season, it was really a dream. Of course, we worked hard to try to be there.
"I want to get better, and I have my dreams, and I believe in my dreams. Of course, my objectives are to win the Premier League or the Champions League. We are not contenders, but it is our dream to achieve something like that."
Meanwhile, Palace have enjoyed a strong finish to the season, winning five of their last six games.
The Eagles could seal a top-half finish with a victory – and other results going their way – and Oliver Glasner has urged his players to use that as inspiration at Selhurst Park.
"I'm pleased with the performances we've had," he said. "We want to win. We always focus on what we can influence. If we don't do our job, we don't win, we can't be 10th. It's good motivation at home to say thank you to the fans."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Crystal Palace – Jean-Philippe Mateta
Mateta has scored in each of his last six home Premier League appearances for Palace, netting eight goals along the way.
He is now aiming to become only the second Frenchman after Thierry Henry to find the net in seven successive Premier League appearances on home soil.
Aston Villa – Ollie Watkins
Watkins has recorded the most assists in the Premier League this season with 13.
Only Ashley Young has ever provided more during a single Premier League campaign for Villa (14 in 2007-08).
MATCH PREDICTION: DRAW
Palace are unbeaten on each of the previous 11 occasions they have finished a top-flight season with a home match (winning seven, drawing four).
By contrast, Villa have only won once in the 25 occasions they have finished a league campaign with an away game (drawn seven, lost 17).
That sole victory came against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in 2001-02.
On a brighter note, Villa are unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League away games in London, winning five of their six this term.
With 16 such points this season, a win or draw here would set a new Premier League record for the most achieved during a single campaign.
Although, you must go back to their title-winning season of 1980-81 for the last time they completed a league double over Palace.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Crystal Palace: 31.8%
Aston Villa: 39.5%
Draw: 28.7
Forest 'still have to finish the job' against Burnley, says Nuno
Nuno Espirito Santo insists Nottingham Forest “still have to finish the job” of securing their Premier League safety when they face Burnley at Turf Moor.
Three points clear of 18th-place Luton Town in 17th, Forest are all but safe from relegation, while it would take an unlikely 12-goal swing in the Hatters’ favour to usurp them.
Nevertheless, Nuno is not taking anything for granted and has called for focus from his players, who he saluted for their efforts throughout the campaign.
"We still have to finish the job," he said. "But credit to the players because it was not an easy season. We have always been able to compete really well in games.
"The feeling is always that we should have been better. We have never felt that someone beat us; it was just that we let games get away from us.
"Yes, in certain games we have been punished, but we have always been a team that wants to attack and score. That is part of our identity.
"There is still a game to go, and we know how football can go. It is best that we prepare the same way with commitment. We are clear about everything that can happen. It is up to us to achieve what we want."
Meanwhile, Burnley are preparing for life back in the Championship, with their immediate return secured after last weekend’s defeat at Tottenham.
And Vincent Kompany says the match marks the first step towards the Clarets' recovery from their disappointment.
"If we're treating this as the first game of next season, in terms of preparing for next season, then this game is an important game," he said.
"You only really fail if you fail to learn and that's not the case for us. We've absolutely learned. There is no lack of motivation, no lack of desire.
"It's sometimes in human nature to sit down and sulk, to feel sorry for yourself. That is not in the culture here, it's not in my nature, the nature of many people here.
"We try to give that to the players – that's ultimately what is going to give them a chance to achieve their goals."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Burnley – Dara O'Shea
O'Shea has been directly involved in two of the last three goals Burnley have scored at Turf Moor (one goal, one assist).
The defender will look to build on that against a Forest side that has conceded 23 goals from set-pieces this season, with only three teams ever letting more in during a single Premier League campaign.
Nottingham Forest – Chris Wood
Wood is the highest scorer in Burnley’s Premier League history, having netted 49 times for the Clarets in the competition between 2017 and 2022.
The striker will aim to become the fifth player to score a Premier League goal against Burnley having previously played for them in the division, after Andre Gray, Danny Ings, Michael Keane and Patrick Bamford.
MATCH PREDICTION: DRAW
Forest are without a win in each of their last six league meetings with Burnley since a 2-0 victory in December 2012, with four of those ending in a draw.
The Tricky Trees have failed to win their final league game in each of the last four seasons, since beating Bolton Wanderers 1-0 in 2018-19.
Meanwhile, Burnley have lost their final Premier League game in each of their last six campaigns at this level.
The Clarets have also won only twice at home this season. Failure to win here would mean this is the fewest wins they have ever recorded in front of their fans in a single campaign.
Kompany’s side will need to tighten up in order to avoid that, though, having conceded at least once in each of their last 19 Premier League matches.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Burnley: 35.9%
Nottingham Forest: 34.8%
Draw: 29.3%
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