The Boston Celtics will hit the road on Tuesday to take on the Milwaukee Bucks in a potential Eastern Conference Finals preview.
In a tantalising battle between the top two teams in the East, it will also be a clash between two of the NBA's top-four defenses this season.
The Celtics will head into the contest boasting the rare statistical profile of the fourth-best defense (conceding 110.5 points per 100 possessions) and the third-best offense (116.8 points per 100 possessions).
Meanwhile, the Bucks have relied primarily on their second-ranked defense (109.7), grinding out wins despite their offense ranking only 21st (112.6).
While their offensive production has differed, the way these two sides approach the game is very similar. They are two of the most perimeter-centric offenses in the league, both top-five in average three-point attempts, while both also sit bottom-five in average points in the paint.
It makes sense that, because both of these teams so heavily value the three-point shot, they also make just as much of an effort to disrupt that area for their opponents. They are both top-six in limiting opponent three-point makes, presenting an interesting conundrum.
Two teams who want to bomb away from deep, who also know exactly how to run their opposition off the three-point line, forcing them to take a step inside and attempt less valuable two-point jump shots, or daring them to finish at the basket against elite rim protectors.
They are also the best two teams in the league at limiting opposition free throw attempts, meaning that even when they force opponents inside into traffic, they are challenging without fouling.
But the wrench in that equation is Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo, who lives in the paint, contributes nearly half (19.0) of his side's 45.4 points in the paint per game, and leads the league in free throw attempts (13.8 per game).
It puts the opposition in a quandary – do you follow the scouting report and try to limit the Bucks' three-point shooting, potentially giving Antetokounmpo the free rein to dominate inside, or do you go all-in on stopping the former back-to-back MVP and force somebody else to hit shots?
That is not to say the Celtics' stars are incapable of getting into the paint – with both Jaylen Brown (11.7 paint points per game) and Jayson Tatum (11.5) in the top-20 in the league – but Brown is the primary slasher of the pair, and will miss this game with a broken bone in his face.
Brown will be joined on the sideline by reigning Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart, meaning Tatum will not just be the Celtics' most important offensive player, he will also be their top perimeter defender.
The Celtics are struggling in the health department right now, while the Bucks are trending in the right direction. Both Milwaukee All-Stars – Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday – will play, and All-NBA wing Khris Middleton has games of 22 points and 24 points in his past three after recovering from his own serious injury.
PIVOTAL PERFORMERS
Boston Celtics – Robert Williams III
Smart will be missed, but there is arguably not a more valuable defender to the Celtics than Robert Williams III – especially against an interior force like Antetokounmpo.
The 25-year-old came from out of nowhere to force his way onto the NBA All-Defensive Second Team last season, finishing fourth in the league for blocks per game (2.2). That block figure has come back down to earth this season – still a team-leading 1.2 per game – but, simply put, the Celtics are a force defensively with him on the court.
During his minutes, the Celtics concede only 104.8 points per 100 possessions – the fourth-best figure for any player averaging at least 20 minutes per game – which is over five points better than the league's best defense this season (Cleveland Cavaliers, 108.9).
Scheffler not looking too far ahead with PGA Championship looming
Scottie Scheffler admits he does not allow himself to look too far ahead as he prepares to launch his bid for a first PGA Championship title.
The world number one, who finished tied-second behind champion Brooks Koepka at Oak Hill last year, is the player in form and favourite to go one better 12 months on and claim his third major.
The reigning Masters champion is aiming to become only the third golfer since the turn of the century to win the opening two majors in a calendar year, after Tiger Woods (2002) and Jordan Spieth (2015).
Scheffler arrives at Valhalla having won four of his last five tournaments, and is 161 under par across his 10 PGA Tour events in 2024 - shooting 60s in 30 of the 39 rounds he has played.
One of only two players to finish inside the top 10 in each of the last three majors - along with Cameron Smith - big things are expected of the 28-year-old, but he highlighted the importance of staying grounded.
"I don't really try to look that far ahead," he said. "If I listen to the narratives around myself, if it was two months ago, it would probably look significantly different than it does now.
"I'm sure that wasn't a conversation you were all having two months ago and, all of a sudden, now it's like: 'Oh, he's going to win this many tournaments, or do that and do this'.
"I don't really pay attention to it, I don't really care about it. I'm trying to do the best I can out there each and every week, and as far as anything else, I'm not really too concerned with it.
"I may win a lot of major championships, I may be stuck at two the rest of my career. It doesn't really concern me at the moment. I'm just trying to prepare as best as possible for this week."
D.C. United v New York Red Bulls: Lesesne fortunate to work with 'incredible' Benteke
D.C. United coach Troy Lesesne feels fortunate to work with Christian Benteke, who is battling the likes of Luis Suarez and Lionel Messi for the MLS Golden Boot after a flying start to 2024.
Benteke has been in incredible form this year, scoring 11 goals in 10 MLS appearances to join Suarez and Cristian Arango at the top of the scoring charts, with Messi one behind that trio.
The former Liverpool and Aston Villa man scored a hat-trick of headers last time out, helping D.C. recover from behind for a 3-2 win over Atlanta United.
With Lesesne's former employers the New York Red Bulls visiting Audi Field on Wednesday, the D.C. boss will be hoping for more of the same.
"He's incredible," Lesesne said of Benteke. "He's got two hat-tricks this year, he's on 11 goals now and he's just such an incredible presence in our team, even beyond scoring.
"He deserves to be talked about first. He is a handful, and he allows other players to come into the match and have dangerous opportunities themselves. I'm very lucky to work with him."
Benteke's form has helped put D.C. in the playoff picture early on this campaign, but the Red Bulls are three points clear of them, sitting third in the Eastern Conference.
They also came out on top in a thriller last week, with two late goals helping them overcome the New England Revolution 4-2.
One of their goalscorers, Elias Manoel, says the Red Bulls' ability to pick up results when not at their best will take them far this term.
"It was really important to keep the consistency because even though we had some unfavourable results, in some games we didn't lose as well," Manoel said.
"This consistency is going to be really good at the end of the competition."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
D.C. United – Christian Benteke
Against Atlanta last week, Benteke became just the second player since 2010 to score three headed goals in a single MLS game, alongside the Five Stripes' Juan Purata in 2022 (versus Toronto FC).
New York Red Bulls – Elias Manoel
Manoel recorded both a goal and an assist as a substitute in New York's win over the Revolution last week.
He joined Cameron Harper and Bradley Wright-Phillips as the only Red Bulls players over the last 10 seasons to come off the bench and record both a goal and assist. Will he be rewarded with a start?
MATCH PREDICTION – DRAW
This will be the 107th meeting between D.C. and the Red Bulls in all competitions – it is the most-played match between two MLS teams. The Red Bulls, winners of the last three meetings, have never won four straight against D.C.
D.C. have gone unbeaten through their last three games, winning two and drawing one, while scoring multiple goals in each match. An entertaining draw could be on the cards here…
The Red Bulls are coming off a 4-2 win over New England in which they only had 33.1 per cent of possession. They have had four games with less than a third of possession and four or more goals in the last three seasons, more than every other MLS team combined.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
D.C. United – 39.1%
New York Red Bulls – 32%
Draw – 28.9%
Austin FC v Houston Dynamo: Olsen reveals 'tough conversations' as derby looms
Ben Olsen had to hold a few "tough conversations" to get the Houston Dynamo out of their slump, with Saturday's Texas derby at Austin FC offering them the chance for back-to-back wins.
The Dynamo approached Saturday's trip to Sporting Kansas City both winless and goalless in three MLS matches (one draw, two defeats), while they were also dumped out of the U.S. Open Cup by Detroit City FC.
However, goals from Hector Herrera and Ibrahim Aliyu handed them a 2-1 road win and lifted them into the top seven of the Western Conference – above Austin by a single point.
Speaking ahead of Wednesday's grudge match against a team that won the reverse fixture less than a month ago, Olsen credited his players for coming through a tough patch.
"I think some people were questioning us, and we've had a few tough conversations, particularly with the U.S. Open cup knockout. This was just a really good response," he said.
"We have to figure out when we are at our best, to think, 'who are we, at our best?'
"It was our defensive effort that we hung our hat on last year, so it's a bit of a renewed feeling of that being there."
Austin, by contrast, were on a run of four wins in six games before they were beaten 2-1 by another Texas rival in FC Dallas on Saturday.
Despite that reverse, centre-back Julio Cascante has praised the defensive work done by coach Josh Wolff, with Austin looking far more competitive than was the case in their dismal 2023 season.
"Despite everything, we've worked very hard on the defensive side," Cascante said.
"Emphasis has been placed on the defensive side, but defending is done as an entire team. It starts with the number nine. I think that makes the difference."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Austin FC – Sebastian Driussi
Driussi scored a consolation from the penalty spot at Dallas on Saturday, his third goal of the season in eight MLS starts.
Only Diego Rubio, who has started three additional games, has matched that tally for Austin this year. The Argentine will be looking to carry his team's attacking hopes again here.
Houston Dynamo – Amine Bassi
Bassi recorded his third assist of the season by teeing up Hector Herrera's 31st-minute strike against Sporting on Saturday.
All three of Bassi's assists have come on goals from outside the box this season – Houston's only three strikes from outside the penalty area.
MATCH PREDICTION – AUSTIN FC WIN
Houston have won three of their first five road matches this year, having only recorded more than three regular-season away wins in one of the last 10 campaigns, winning four times on their travels in 2022.
However, Austin have won all four of their previous home matches against Houston, netting multiple goals in each contest. The Dynamo are one of two teams – alongside Kansas City – that Austin have hosted more than once while posting a 100 per cent record.
Austin have also won three straight at home after only winning once in their previous 10 outings at Q2 Stadium. Back on home soil after Saturday's derby loss, they will expect a different result.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Austin FC – 44.9%
Houston Dynamo – 26.9%
Draw – 28.2%
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