While the Premier League title race unfolds, there is another tussle playing out at the bottom.
And this weekend, six of the teams at the wrong end of the table fight it out against each other.
On Saturday, Luton Town will hope to propel themselves out of the relegation zone by overcoming Brentford at Kenilworth Road, though the 15th-placed Bees will know that another win could all but end their worries of dropping down to the Championship.
At the same time, the two bottom clubs go head-to-head at Bramall Lane, with Sheffield United hosting Burnley. Both the Blades and the Clarets look likely to go down, though if either are to survive, then taking three points from this one is a must.
Sunday’s early game is a huge one at Goodison Park, as Everton and Nottingham Forest – both impacted by points deductions for breaches of Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) – face off. The Toffees are 16th, a point better off than the Tricky Trees, but Sean Dyche’s team are on a dismal run of just one win in 15 league matches.
Crystal Palace are perhaps not out of the woods just yet, though after their stunning win at Anfield last time out, the Eagles will hope to carry on the momentum when they face West Ham.
And using Opta data, we can assess the likelihood of the Premier League relegation scrap, as well as the underlying metrics behind each of these teams.
Let’s work from the top down.
Palace, after that shock 1-0 win over Liverpool, are now not considered to be relegation candidates by Opta’s predictive model, which gives them a 46.5 per cent chance of staying right where they are in 14th.
The Eagles are six points clear of Everton in 17th, and while not mathematically safe, Oliver Glasner’s team are certainly within touching distance.
It is worth noting, though, that according to the Opta power rankings, Palace have the most difficult run-in of all these seven teams, with the average rating of their remaining opponents coming in at 87.9. Like the Toffees and Sheffield United, Palace have six matches left to play, though they do not play any of the teams below them in that run.
Next come Brentford. The Bees have five games remaining but, with 33 points, are likely just a win away from tying up their safety, and they will be hoping that comes against Luton (as well Everton and Forest fans).
According to Opta’s model, Brentford have the second-easiest fixture list of any team in the league, with their average opponent rating of 85.1 higher only than Newcastle United’s (84.1).
The Bees do, though, face a trip to Everton after they head to Luton, so should the worst occur and they lose those matches, then Thomas Frank’s team could find themselves firmly back in danger. As it stands, Brentford’s chances of going down are a meagre 0.3 per cent.
Brentford are the second-worst expected goals underperformers in the competition this season, having scored six fewer goals than would have been anticipated based on the quality of opportunities they have created, suggesting that with better finishing, and a bit more luck, they would likely be clear of danger already.
And if that can be said for Brentford, then it can be emphatically repeated for 16th-placed Everton.
Even factoring in the eight points that have been taken off them this term, Everton – who were thrashed 6-0 by Chelsea on Monday – could have been out of danger had they simply come close to matching their xG. They are by far the Premier League’s biggest underperformers when it comes to that metric – Dyche’s side have scored 32 goals (which ranks 19th in the league) from an xG of 48, a whopping underperformance of 16.
Sunday’s clash with Forest kick-starts a huge week of home games for the Toffees, with a Merseyside derby against Liverpool following on April 24, before Brentford then visit Goodison Park.
With Forest, Brentford, Luton and Sheffield United among their final four fixtures, Everton should still have some confidence – they have taken seven points off those sides already this term, and a repeat of that could be enough, though a final-day away outing at Arsenal is ominous, given the Toffees have shipped nine goals in their last two visits to Emirates Stadium. Opta predicts they will stay up, but Everton do have an 8.9 per cent chance of slipping out of the top tier for the first time in over 70 years.
Below them, Forest will no doubt have been buoyed by Everton’s sorry performance at Stamford Bridge. However, Nuno Espirito Santo’s team do have a rather sizeable 29.9 per cent chance of going down, so a victory at Goodison Park could be vital.
Especially considering Forest’s next fixture comes against Manchester City, albeit it is at home, where they also face Chelsea in between away clashes with Sheffield United and Burnley.
Perhaps worrying for Forest, however, is that in their three matches against Everton, the Blades and Burnley this term, they have taken only four points. Interestingly, while Forest have shipped 58 goals – a figure which betters only the bottom three, they have been unfortunate to concede so many based on their expected goals against (xGA), which is actually the sixth best in the league at 47.4.
Then we have Luton. The Hatters have been one of the stories of the season, and despite their small budget have a brilliant chance of survival.
That being said, Opta’s predictive model does anticipate they will go down, with Rob Edwards’ side having a 54.3 per cent chance of finishing where they are in 18th, with their chances of finishing in 17th being 29.6 per cent.
Victory over Brentford, who beat them 3-1 earlier in the campaign, would see Luton move out of the bottom three, though, and with five games left, they do have what is considered a relatively easy run-in when it comes to the average rating of those teams they are going up against, at 85.4.
That being said, Luton’s defensive record this season is awful. The Hatters have shipped 70 goals from an xGA of 69.7. They will need to tighten up if they are to complete the great escape.
What about the bottom two?
Well, they are perhaps down and out. After visiting South Yorkshire on Saturday, Vincent Kompany’s Burnley team have to go to Old Trafford and the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium either side of hosting Newcastle, and Opta’s predictive model suggests they will go down – they have just a 1.6 per cent chance of survival.
There is an even smaller chance of the Blades, who are 20th, staying up, at just 0.2 per cent.
Chris Wilder’s team are the team with the fewest goals scored in the top flight, at 30, while they have conceded 84 – the worst in the division, and while victory over the Clarets would provide a morale-boost, the Blades seemed destined for the Championship.
Jamaica to host T&T U-17s for two friendly games in week-long camp
Jamaica's Under-17 team will host their Trinidad and Tobago counterparts for two international friendly encounters this weekend.
The games, which forms part of a week-long camp for both teams, will also see the young Soca Warriors, who are scheduled to arrive in the island on Wednesday, lock horns with a local club team during their visit. The first game is scheduled for the UWI-JFF Captain Horace Burrell Centre of Excellence, CHBC on Friday at 4:00pm, while the second encounter will take place on Sunday at 9:00am.
Trinidad and Tobago will then close their visit against the youth team of a prominent club, next Tuesday.
Both the young Reggae Boyz, to be guided by former Reggae Boy midfielder Altimont "Freddy" Butler, Carlton Simmonds and Vassel Reynolds, and the Shawn Cooper-coached young Soca Warriors are preparing for the Concacaf Men's Under-17 Championship which was pushed back to 2025. The tournament was initially scheduled for August this year.
According to recently installed Trinidad and Tobago Football Association (TTFA) president, Kieron Edwards, this friendly initiative is in line with the TTFA’s application to the FIFA Talent Development Scheme, which aims to provide additional resources to member associations for the elite youth national teams.
Edwards insisted that there will be continuous efforts to provide opportunities for exposure and match preparation for the various national teams.
“In keeping with the executive’s mantra to strengthen partnerships and our relationship with our brothers in CFU, we are pleased to be embarking on this journey to Jamaica,” said Edwards.
“Despite the challenges, the commitment to the continued development of our high-performance programme shines through. This trip marks a pivotal step towards our U-17 team’s quest to qualify for the FIFA U-17 World Cup in 2025. It’s a testament to the dedication of all involved, securing this opportunity mere days after the new executive’s installation," he added.
The current T&T U-17 selection features several players who have graduated from the Trinidad and Tobago Football Association High Performance Programme and competed at the CONCACAF Boys Under-15 Championship in the Dominican Republic last August, recording memorable wins against Costa Rica and Qatar.
T&T squad: Antuan Louison, Seth Hadeed, Jonathan Mason (Fatima College); Alejandro Harper, Eran Mc Leod (CIC); Nikosi Foncette, Kyron Baptiste, Josiah Simmons, Jimally Renne (Presentation College, Sando); Jasai Theophilus, Jayden Christophe (QRC); Dimitre Jones, Keston Richards (Arima North Sec); Jaydon Caprietta, Jeremiah Daniel, Adasa Richardson, Antonio Hills, Mikhail Clement (Naparima College); Salim Soanes (St Benedict’s College); Necose Moore (Chaguanas North Sec); Riquelme Phillips (Speyside High School)
Captain fantastic: Reid again on target as Arnett Gardens edge Portmore United to book semi-final spot
As the famous English proverbs states “When the going gets tough, the tough gets going.”
That’s the mindset of Arnett Gardens’s Head coach Xavier Gilbert, who is backing his team to not only overcome the Cavalier hurdle in the semi-final, but also to possibly go all the way in this season’s Wray and Nephew Jamaica Premier League.
Gilbert’s thoughts followed their 1-0 win over Portmore United in second-leg quarterfinal action, as Arnett Gardens wrapped up a 2-1 aggregate scoreline at Sabina Park on Monday.
Captain fantastic, Fabian Reid, was again the saviour, as he got the all-important strike in the 90th minute to break Portmore United’s heart and ensure the five-time champions remain on course for the final.
With the “Junglists” last title coming back in the 2016/17 season, Gilbert is optimistic about breaking the drought, but first they will have to get by last season’s beaten finalist, Cavalier in the semi-final, which kicks off on Sunday.
Arnett Gardens, who fell at the semi-final stage to eventual champions Mount Pleasant FA last year, lost 0-3 and drew 2-2 with Cavalier earlier this season.
“We knew it would only get tougher as we go on, and that's a given. But when the situation becomes difficult, that’s when we need to show our strength and stand up to it. So, yes, it will be another tough encounter against Cavalier, but we have to prepare mentally and physically for it, and then analyse how we're going to approach that game tactically,” Gilbert said in a post-game interview.
“But I'm happy that we got the win tonight. I thought we created some good opportunities, and we just didn't finish. We knew that it was just a matter of time, and we finally got it (the goal) in the end. I am happy for the players, I think they really deserve it, and it's a huge boost heading into, into the semi-final. They should be confident for that (semi-final) game, and we're just going to go back, recover and get ready for it,” he added.
It was a fairly decent, but goalless first half, as both teams evenly matched strides and had their fair share of chances to break the deadlock. Arnett Gardens initially looked more threatening in open play, but the best chance of the half fell to Portmore United in the 39th minute, when Alex Marshall’s glancing header sent Chevaughn Walsh through on goal, but the striker sporting the number nine jersey, couldn’t beat Eric Edwards, who left his line well to block the effort.
Prior to that, Chevany Willis’s seventh-minute freekick for Arnett Gardens, came back off the crossbar, while Keheim Dixon went on a break in the 10th minute, but was taken out by Portmore United’s custodian Benjamin Williams, who strayed well outside his area. Fortunately, the resulting freekick didn’t inflict any damage on the St Catherine team.
Portmore United started more purposeful on the resumption, and enjoyed a decent passage of play, but failed to create any meaningful chance to hurt Arnett Gardens.
Arnett Gardens eventually settled and should have opened the scoring through Dixon in the 54th minute. The former Clarendon College standout picked up a pass from Jaheim Thomas and had time and space to pick a spot from deep inside the danger area. However, his first opportunity came off the upright, while the second off the rebound, slammed into the underside of the crossbar.
Arnett Gardens again went close in the 66th minute, as Reid rose highest to deflect Philando Wing’s weighted corner kick towards goal, but Williams, diving full stretch to his right, got down well to parry.
Portmore responded six minutes later, but Walsh, arriving at the far post, failed to connect with Marshall’s cross.
From there, it was all Arnett Gardens, as they applied consistent pressure and had two quick looks at the target, but both Marlon Martin and substitute Shai Smith, misfired in quick succession.
However, the South St Andrew team inevitably got the goal their many fans waited for on the stroke of full time. Smith, with a cheeky play, orchestrated a tidy build up in a one-two combination play with another substitute Kimani Arbouine, before playing a perfect pass across the face of goal for Reid to finish his 12th goal of the season, and 86th in a dazzling JPL career, from close range.
With the defeat a tough one to take, Portmore United’s Head coach Phillip Williams rued their missed opportunities.
“I think we created enough chances but at the same time, I don’t think we were clinical enough to make the most of those chances. It was a game of fine margins and against a quality team like Arnett Gardens, you have to put away those chances, but the guys stuck to the tactical adjustments that we made, and we were in the game for a longer period it is just unfortunate that we didn’t put away our chances,” Williams reasoned.
Vardy eyes 100-point season after Leicester's title win
Jamie Vardy has challenged his Leicester City team-mates to reach 100 points after sealing the Championship title with one game to spare.
The Foxes were promoted back to the Premier League without kicking a ball after Leeds United’s 4-0 defeat to QPR on Friday, but they needed to win on Monday to earn top spot.
Enzo Maresca’s side cruised to a 3-0 victory over Preston through Vardy’s brace and Kasey McAteer’s header, moving them to 97 points.
With one last milestone in their reach, Vardy wants to make sure they end an already successful season on a high.
Speaking to Sky Sports, he said: “We can celebrate it tonight, but now we have another target which is 100 points.
“We are over the moon. It has gone by quick but it's a graft. Not many days off, I'll tell you that.
“The lads - they've given it all. Thoroughly deserved, and I'm glad we've had 5000 to come and celebrate with us. It's not like it's 20 minutes up the road."
After a run of just three victories from nine games in the league between mid-February and April, Leicester have now won each of their last three outings.
Maresca has praised his players for their hard work in what he labelled a “tough season”.
“Fantastic, it's been a fantastic season. The Championship is a tough season and very intense, but I'm very happy," said Maresca.
"Now it's time to enjoy the work of the season to bring this special club back to the Premier League. We deserve it.
“The last two days they have been fantastic. We got promoted, but it was difficult in game preparation. But we used all of today to prepare for the game, the morning and afternoon. It was good.”
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