EFL

Analysing the attacks in a thrilling Championship promotion race

By Sports Desk March 28, 2024

The Championship returns from the international break with, much like the Premier League, a three-horse tussle at the top.

Leicester City, having led the standings for the majority of the campaign, now find themselves in second place behind Leeds United, albeit with a game in hand on the in-form Whites.

The Foxes are grappling with off-pitch issues, and a return to form when they face Bristol City on Friday would go far to restoring some momentum.

Leeds, on the other hand, have won 12 of their last 13 Championship fixtures, dropping points just once in that run.

As for third-placed Ipswich Town, they are hot on the heels of their automatic-promotion rivals.

All of these sides have built their fine campaigns on some brilliant attacking play, scoring 224 goals between them. Using Opta data, we can look at just how these attacks stack up.

 

Ipswich Town

Of these three teams, Ipswich have scored the most goals, with Kieran McKenna's side netting 80 across their 38 matches - an average of 2.1 per game. That makes the Tractor Boys the leading scorers in the league, while they are also the leading team for non-penalty goals (78).

Ipswich have, however, greatly outperformed their expected goals (xG) of 64.2, while also greatly exceeding their non-penalty xG (61.8). When it comes to those metrics, they rank fourth and second in the second tier respectively. Their expected goals on target (xGOT) figure of 69.5 shows their finishing has been above the standard of what would be anticipated from the quality of chances, and they rank third in the league in this aspect.

Unsurprisingly, Ipswich lead the way for shots (590), while they rank second for shots on target (214). They are fourth in the Championship for shot conversion rate (13.5 per cent), big chances (94) and big chances scored (42). Their big-chance conversion rate, of 44.68, stands as the sixth best in the competition.

But how do Ipswich create their chances? Well, they aren't afraid to send crosses into the area, with their 114 successful open-play crosses ranking second. However, it's Ipswich's high press that really stands out.

They have forced 309 high turnovers (winning the ball back within 40 yards of the opponent's goal), at an average of 8.1 per match. They lead the league for shot-ending high turnovers, with 65, albeit they are tied for fifth when it comes to scoring goals from such scenarios (seven). McKenna's team are certainly able to go direct, too, given they rank down at 10th for sequences of 10+ passes. 

 

Don't bet against Ipswich if they go behind, meanwhile. They have gained 28 points from a losing position, topping the Championship.

And when they get the lead, Ipswich typically hold onto it, with only two teams dropping fewer points from a winning position.

Leicester City

Ranking behind Ipswich for goals scored are Leicester, with 74 to their name. The Foxes are also second in the Championship for xG (68) and for xGOT (73.5).

It is worth noting that Leicester have been more reliant on penalties, having scored 12 goals from the spot. 

Leicester have mustered the fifth-highest tally of shots (525), while their 189 shots on target ranks fourth in the division.

But in which metrics do Leicester top the Championship? Enzo Maresca's team lead the way for shot conversion (14.1 per cent), big chances (111) and big chances scored (50).

Leicester are hardly a pressing machine off the ball, having averaged just 7.4 high turnovers per game, but what the Foxes lack in quantity they make up for in quality – they have scored a joint league-leading eight goals from those situations.

Maresca's men do not particularly look to cross at a high volume, though when they do put deliveries in, they are often on point. Leicester are 19th out of 24 teams for total open-play crosses, yet they rank third for successful open-play deliveries.

If teams go ahead against Leicester, however, then the Foxes are not the best at coming from behind, having gained only 10 points from such positions this term.

Leeds United

So, what about Leeds, the league leaders heading into the Easter weekend?

Leeds have accumulated more xG than any other Championship team, at 68.4, while 62.9 of that total has come from non-penalty shots. However, they rank down in fourth for both goals (70) and non-penalty goals (65). Interestingly, the Whites' xGOT is 69.2, so they have been finishing slightly above what would be expected from chances they have crafted.

 

Daniel Farke's team are the Championship leaders for high turnovers, with 319, while their average of 11 passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), which measures how often a team presses their opponent, is the second highest in the competition.

Leeds have been exceptionally effective from this high press, too. They have had the third-highest shots (61) and, along with Leicester, lead the Championship for goal-ending high turnovers, with eight.

The Whites may only have got 201 of their 586 shots on target, with an 11.9 per cent shot conversion rate, but they are excellent at creating quality chances, ranking second for big chances (102), which are defined by Opta as an opportunity from which a player would be reasonably expected to score.

Should Leeds take a lead, then they are excellent at holding onto it. They have dropped the fewest points (four) of any Championship team from winning positions, while they rank second for points gained from losing positions (21).

Unlike Leicester or Ipswich, there is no focus at all on crossing, or quality crossing, from Leeds. Farke's side actually rank 23rd for both open-play crosses and successful open-play deliveries. Perhaps forcing them wide will be the only way their opponents can keep them out in the run-in?

Related items

  • Hull City 3-3 Ipswich Town: Tigers fight back three times to deny Tractor Boys Hull City 3-3 Ipswich Town: Tigers fight back three times to deny Tractor Boys

    Ipswich Town missed the chance to move into an automatic promotion spot as play-off-chasing Hull City came from behind three times in a thrilling 3-3 Championship draw at The MKM Stadium.

    Ipswich knew a victory would take them second after Leeds United were surprisingly beaten 4-0 by Queens Park Rangers on Friday, and they led on three separate occasions, George Hirst opening the scoring before Omari Hutchinson produced two brilliant strikes from the edge of the area.

    However, buoyed by slip-ups from rivals Norwich City and West Brom earlier on Saturday, Hull dug deep to fight back on each occasion, Ozan Tufan and Liam Delap scoring their first two equalisers.

    With Liam Rosenior's men 3-2 down with just four minutes to play, substitute Noah Ohio blasted his shot in off the crossbar to punish an error from Ipswich goalkeeper Vaclav Hladky.

    The result keeps Ipswich behind second-placed Leeds on goal difference, though the Tractor Boys have a game in hand to come at Coventry City on Tuesday.

    Hull, meanwhile, are two points adrift of the top six, with Norwich's goal difference advantage meaning their top-six spot is all but assured. The Tigers will, however, leapfrog West Brom if they beat Plymouth Argyle on the final day and Albion lose to Preston North End. 

    Data Debrief: Hutchinson's best not enough

    Hutchinson was a man who deserved to be on the winning side on Saturday, giving Ryan Allsop no chance with two near-identical left-footed strikes from the right corner of the penalty area.

    His goals came from an expected goals (xG) total of just 0.6, and he led all players on the pitch for shots (eight) and passes in the final third (21), also laying on three chances for his team-mates.

  • Paris Saint-Germain 3-3 Le Havre: Ramos rescues point but title confirmation must wait Paris Saint-Germain 3-3 Le Havre: Ramos rescues point but title confirmation must wait

    Paris Saint-Germain were held to a 3-3 draw at home to relegation-battling Le Havre on Saturday and will need to wait before confirming their 12th Ligue 1 title.

    PSG would have clinched the title with three games to spare with a victory. They have a 12-point gap over second-placed Monaco, who are at Lyon on Sunday, and a goal difference of 47 to Monaco's 18.

    The away side opened the scoring in the 19th minute through Christopher Operi and PSG levelled 10 minutes later with Bradley Barcola scoring, but Le Havre went ahead again seven minutes before the break when Andre Ayew found the net.

    Le Havre made it 3-1 with an Abdoulaye Toure penalty in the 61st minute, before Achrif Hakimi gave PSG hope with a goal 12 minutes from time and Goncalo Ramos levelled in added time. Le Havre are 15th on 29 points.

  • Aston Villa 2-2 Chelsea: Gallagher caps Blues fightback at Villa Park Aston Villa 2-2 Chelsea: Gallagher caps Blues fightback at Villa Park

    Conor Gallagher scored the equaliser as Chelsea fought back from two goals down to clinch a deserved 2-2 draw with Champions League-chasing Aston Villa on Saturday.

    Villa looked set to go nine points clear of Tottenham in the race to finish in the Premier League's top four, with Marc Cucurella's own goal and Morgan Rogers' low drive giving them a handsome half-time lead.

    Mauricio Pochettino's men dominated much of the first half without reward, but they continued to press after the interval and cultured finishes from Noni Madueke and Gallagher dragged them level.

    They almost completed a fine comeback in stoppage time, but there was relief for Villa when referee Craig Pawson disallowed a goal for Chelsea defender Axel Disasi following a VAR review due to an infringement from Benoit Badiashile.

    It meant Villa boss Unai Emery was unable to celebrate his new long-term contract with three points, with his team now seven points clear of fifth-placed Spurs, who have three games in hand on their rivals.

    Chelsea stay ninth and are five points adrift of the top seven, but with a game in hand to come, their European hopes are not yet over.

    Villa made a flying start and were ahead within four minutes, albeit in somewhat fortunate circumstances. John McGinn didn't get a clean connection on Lucas Digne's left-wing cutback, but his shot bounced off Cucurella and into the net.

    Chelsea thought they were level after 16 minutes as Nicolas Jackson raced clear to finish into the roof of the net, but his strike was disallowed for offside after a VAR review, with replays showing he was leaning beyond Matty Cash.

    Jackson should then have equalised when found by Cucurella six yards out, but he could only send his header against the foot of the post and wide.

    Villa then doubled their lead against the run of play shortly before half-time, with Djordje Petrovic powerless as Rogers squeezed his shot through Trevoh Chalobah's legs and in.

    A hamstring injury saw Villa goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez withdrawn at half-time, and his replacement Robin Olsen was beaten after 62 minutes, Madueke stroking home after Gallagher forced a high turnover. 

    Olsen stuck out an arm to deny Madueke a second with 71 minutes gone, but he had no chance as the Blues levelled with nine minutes to play, Gallagher rifling a left-footed finish into the top-left corner.

    Chelsea thought they had won it when Disasi headed home five minutes into stoppage time, but referee Pawson disallowed the goal following a VAR review, with Badiashile adjudged to have fouled Diego Carlos in the build-up.

    Villa throw it away

    Villa could hardly have wished for a stronger position at half-time. Despite Chelsea carving out several good openings, they found themselves 2-0 up and primed to exploit their opponents further through the pace of Ollie Watkins and Leon Bailey.

    Chelsea had lost 16 of their previous 18 Premier League games when trailing at half-time (one win, one draw), losing their last eight when two or more goals behind at the break.

    However, Emery's men simply didn't get going after the restart, and only a late VAR review saved them from a crushing defeat, with Disasi's potential winner chalked off for a foul by fellow defender Badiashile.

    Gallagher leads from the front

    Gallagher has polarised opinion at times this season, but Chelsea's stand-in skipper produced a talismanic display just when his team needed him most at Villa Park.

    The England international is known for his tenacious work out of possession, and he forced a turnover on the corner of the Villa box in the build-up to Madueke's goal.

    Gallagher's own strike, which flew into the top corner to stun the home faithful, took him to double figures for Premier League goal involvements for the season (four goals, six assists). He has only achieved that feat in one other campaign in the competition, scoring eight goals and adding three assists on loan at Crystal Palace in 2021-22.

    Four of his seven Premier League goals for Chelsea, meanwhile, have now come from outside the area.

© 2023 SportsMaxTV All Rights Reserved.