EPL

Premier League predictions: As Man City title tilt set to roll on, can Chelsea frustrate Arsenal?

By Sports Desk April 28, 2023

If a statement win was what Manchester City were after against Arsenal on Wednesday, then they got it.

City thrashed the Premier League leaders 4-1 at the Etihad Stadium to close the gap to the Gunners to two points, and Pep Guardiola's side still have two games in hand.

The reigning champions play again on Sunday, with a trip to Fulham on the cards. Arsenal, meanwhile, are next in action on Tuesday, when they host struggling Chelsea, who have lost every game under interim boss Frank Lampard.

At the other end of the table, Leicester City face Everton in a relegation six-pointer. In the race for Europe, Tottenham travel to Liverpool.

Fulham v Manchester City

City have won their last 13 meetings with Fulham in all competitions, only winning more consecutively against Watford (15 – 2013-2022) and West Brom (14 – 2012-2018) in their history.

Erling Haaland has scored 33 Premier League goals for Manchester City this season, a record in a 38-game season. He is one away from equalling the overall record for a single season, set by Andrew Cole in 1993-94 and matched by Alan Shearer in 1994-95 (34 goals) in 42-game campaigns. This will be his 30th appearance in the competition, with his 33 goals already more than 21 teams managed in total in their first 30 Premier League games.

Pep Guardiola has won 25 of his 38 Premier League away games against London sides, the highest win rate of any visiting manager to take charge of at least 10 such games (66 per cent). All eight of his defeats in the capital have come against either Tottenham (five) or Chelsea (three).

Best bet – City to avoid defeat: Fulham are winless in their last 15 Premier League meetings with City (D3 L12) since a 3-1 away win in April 2009. They have lost the last 10 in a row by an aggregate score of 28-4.

Long shot – Fulham to keep a clean sheet: Fulham have kept just one clean sheet in their 29 Premier League games against City, a goalless draw in March 2004. 

Opta prediction: City, as expected, are made big favourites (64.8 per cent). The draw is rated at 21.9 per cent, while Fulham are given a 13.3 per cent chance of victory.

 

Liverpool v Tottenham

Liverpool have lost just one of their last 20 Premier League games against Spurs (W13 D6) and are unbeaten in 10 since a 4-1 loss at Wembley Stadium in October 2017.

Tottenham are winless in five Premier League away games, losing as many games in this run (three) as they had in their previous 16 on the road beforehand (W8 D5). It is their longest run without an away league win since a run of 12 between February and November 2019.

Liverpool have won their last three Premier League matches, despite conceding in each match. The last time they won four games in a row was in November and December earlier this season, also conceding in all four victories.

Best bet – Mohamed Salah to score or assist: Salah has been involved in 11 goals in his last eight home games in all competitions (eight goals, three assists), scoring at least once in each of his last six. Since he joined Liverpool in 2017, no player has scored more Premier League goals against Tottenham than the Egyptian (seven).

Long shot – Liverpool under 1.5 goals: Tottenham have conceded 31 away goals in the Premier League this season, already their most in a single campaign since 2008-09 (35). They have only kept two league clean sheets outside of London this season, doing so in victories at Nottingham Forest (2-0) and Brighton and Hove Albion (1-0).

Opta prediction: The supercomputer hands Liverpool a 55.2 per cent probability of winning this one, while Spurs are given just a 20.0 per cent shot. The draw has a 24.8 per cent likelihood.

Leicester City v Everton

Following their 2-0 win at Goodison Park in November, Leicester are looking to complete a Premier League double over Everton for just the second time, previously doing so in their 2015-16 title winning campaign.

Everton have won their last two Premier League away games against Leicester – they have never won on three consecutive visits to the Foxes in their league history.

Dean Smith has won four and lost none of his six Premier League meetings with Everton, winning three of his four at home against the Toffees. Only Antonio Conte (seven) has faced Everton more without ever losing to them as a manager in the competition.

Best bet – Leicester to concede: Despite Everton's woeful form in front of goal this season, they should be confident of getting on the scoresheet, given Leicester have conceded in each of their last 18 Premier League games, their joint-longest run without a clean sheet in the competition. 

Long shot – Everton to win: Everton are winless in their last 12 Premier League away games (D5 L7). Since beating Brighton 2-0 in August 2021, they have won just two of their last 33 away league games (D10 L21).

Opta prediction: Everton won this fixture last season, but Opta does not give them much chance of repeating that feat on Monday. Their chances of victory are rated at only 21.8 per cent, while the draw is 26.3 per cent, making Leicester (51.9 per cent) the clear favourites.

 

Arsenal v Chelsea

Arsenal have won four of their last five Premier League games against Chelsea (L1), as many as they had in their previous 23 against the Blues (D6 L13).

The Gunners are looking to win three consecutive Premier League games against Chelsea for the first time since February 2004. Indeed, they could achieve their second league double in three seasons against the Blues, having done so just once in the previous 20 campaigns beforehand (2003-04).

Chelsea have lost all five matches in all competitions since Lampard's return to the club, their worst losing run since a six-game run in October and November 1993. The Blues have lost 19 games in total this season, last losing 20 in a single campaign in 1987-88.

Best bet – Bukayo Saka 2+ shots on target: Saka has been directly involved in 16 goals in his 16 Premier League home games this season (nine goals, seven assists). He has both scored and assisted a goal in three different games at Emirates Stadium in the competition this term.

Long shot – Arsenal to fail to score: Only Southampton have kept fewer home clean sheets than Arsenal (three) in the Premier League this season. However, the Gunners have only failed to score in one of their 16 at the Emirates so far this term (0-0 vs Newcastle United in January).

Opta prediction: Arsenal have had a wobble that might prove costly in the title race but will be determined to bounce back. Opta makes them the favourites (43.5 per cent), with Chelsea at 28.2 per cent. The draw is rated at 28.3 per cent.

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    It’s a case of picking up where they left off –or at least Jamaica’s senior Reggae Girlz will try to do so against Brazil at the Arena de Pernambuco in Recife on Saturday at 3:00pm Jamaica time.

    While they held the South American powerhouse to a goalless stalemate at last year’s FIFA Women’s World Cup in Australia, the Girlz were on a more competitive war path back then with much to prove.

    The same cannot be said about the team on this occasion, as this encounter will mark the first assignment together for that World Cup core group in almost nine months. This, as they last played together in September last year when they lost to Canada in the Olympic qualifying playoff.

    Though their confidence is high, the 42nd-ranked Jamaicans will be up against a more youthful Brazilian outfit, as the number 10-ranked nation is gradually transitioning from its veterans Marta, Tamires and Cristiane, just to name a few. In fact, this two-match friendly series which is part of Brazil’s preparation for the Olympic Games in Paris, are expected to mark the official sendoff of the legendary Marta, into retirement.

    Still, Reggae Girlz defender Deneisha Blackwood is backing the team to give a good account in the Brazilians backyard.

    “Both countries are a lot similar in terms of physicality and technical abilities, so I feel it's a good game for us to bring back our team forward again. In terms of scoreline, I can't really predict what the score line will be, but I can promise that it's going to be a good game,” Blackwood said during a pre-game conference on Friday.

    “Our team is very good in terms of the camaraderie, so the moment we got back together, it's like we never left. Yes, we haven't been together for the last nine months, but you couldn't tell. I feel like our group is just so well put together. Obviously, every team has its challenges, but I feel like our mindset when we're together is always to be better, so whether we're apart for nine months or two months, it's just always been a good team environment,” she added.

    Meanwhile, Head coach Hubert Busby explained that while they will be seeking to build on their defensive fortitude that earned the historic draws against France and Brazil at last year’s showpiece, he is also hoping to execute a possession based tactic.

    “I think it (our defence) is a platform on which we built a lot of our success at last year’s World Cup, and even prior to that. So I think it's one of the things that we'll continue to do. The game is played in many different phases, but you always give yourself a good opportunity to be successful with a good defensive platform, and so that will continue as well because good defensive platform is needed against a very good technical Brazilian team,” Busby shared. 

    That said, Busby pointed out that Khadija ‘Bunny’ Shaw’s presence is certainly missed, but in the same breath he argued that the prolific Manchester City striker's absence also presents an opportunity for other players to step up and showcase the squad’s depth.

    “Injuries happen and unfortunately she [Shaw] is not able to be with us, but we have a really good depth and a really good squad and so we know another player will step up. We have more than enough players to come in and give us different qualities from what she [Shaw] gives us,” the former national goalkeeper reasoned.

    “But it is a team we've organized, we've known that she's going to be away for a couple of weeks now, so we've just kind of obviously looked to adapt in terms of how we look to play and what we're looking to do over a longer period of time. So really, the whole process for us is to keep building so that we can be back in this wonderful country in 2027 (for the World Cup),” Busby ended. 

  • D.C. United v Toronto FC: Herdman heaps praise on 'legend' Johnson D.C. United v Toronto FC: Herdman heaps praise on 'legend' Johnson

    John Herdman described Toronto FC goalkeeper Sean Johnson as an MLS legend ahead of Saturday's meeting with D.C. United at Audi Field. 

    Toronto sit sixth in the Eastern Conference standings after playing out a goalless draw with the Philadelphia Union on Wednesday.

    That was their first clean sheet since April 21 (a 2-0 win over the New England Revolution) but their sixth overall in MLS play this year. Only Charlotte FC have more, with seven.

    "When the big man is called on, he brings it," Herdman said after their win over the Union. "This man, he's starting to become a bit of an MLS legend. 

    "He's on 400 games now in MLS and probably doesn't get the recognition he deserves… 10 clean sheets for TFC. 

    "I can't say enough about the big man. He's done a hell of a job for us this season."

    D.C. sit 10th in the standings after going four games without a victory, losing 4-2 at CF Montreal in midweek. 

    Troy Lesesne criticised his side for making rookie mistakes after that game, saying: "We put ourselves in a hole and we can't make these types of mistakes, those are hard lessons to learn.

    "Particularly on the road, with some of the form we've been in over the last three matches… it just sets the tone."

    PLAYERS TO WATCH 

    D.C. United – Christian Benteke

    Benteke scored both of D.C. United’s goals in their midweek defeat, his fourth multi-goal MLS match of the season. 

    The only D.C. United players with more in a single regular season are Luciano Emilio (five) in 2007 and Raul Diaz Arce (five) in 1996.

    Toronto FC – Federico Bernardeschi 

    Bernardeschi attempted five shots and set up four chances for team-mates on Wednesday. 

    The Italian has been directly involved in 94 shots this season (57 shots, 37 chances created), the fourth-most in MLS.

    MATCH PREDICTION – D.C. UNITED WIN

    Toronto's scoreless draw with Philadelphia on Wednesday took them to 23 points for the season, surpassing their total from the entirety of last year (22). 

    However, D.C. are unbeaten in their last seven home games against Toronto (three wins, four draws), also losing just one of their last four on home soil overall. 

    Toronto have also won just one of their last five regular-season games after winning their previous three. D.C.'s energetic approach could catch them out. 

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    D.C. United – 48.8%

    Toronto FC – 25.5%

    Draw – 25.7%

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    Borussia Dortmund have not come this far in the Champions League to be mere witnesses to Real Madrid lifting the trophy for a record-extending 15th time, coach Edin Terzic vowed on Friday.

    "You don't play a final, you win a final and that is our clear goal," Terzic, who will be up against his role model Carlo Ancelotti, told reporters before leading a training session at Wembley Stadium.

    "We're happy to be here but we have to win at Wembley against Real Madrid, to hold that trophy in our hands."

    Dortmund finished a distant fifth in the Bundesliga this season and few would have given them much hope of reaching their first Champions League final since 2013, when Wembley also hosted their defeat against domestic rivals Bayern Munich.

    But Terzic's side stunned Atletico Madrid in a quarter-final thriller and then provided a tactical masterclass as they beat Paris Saint-Germain 1-0 in both legs of the semi-final.

    "Madrid have a role as the favourites, but we weren't favourites against Atletico or Paris either," Terzic added.

    "If we are brave and not here to see Madrid win their next trophy, then we're going to have a chance.

    "We are the team with the most clean sheets in the competition. You need to keep the opposition as far away from goal as possible. 

    "We weren't at our highest level when we conceded goals in September, but we are a totally different team now and have shown we are ready to compete for the trophy."

    One of the many threats to Dortmund's hopes will be a familiar one in the form of Jude Bellingham, who left the club for Madrid last year and has taken LaLiga by storm.

    "Few players have had contact with Jude. Everyone is in the zone and concentrating on their task," Dortmund midfielder Julian Brandt, sitting alongside Terzic, said. 

    Saturday's final, Dortmund's 300th major European game, will be the final match in the iconic yellow shirt for Marco Reus, while Madrid's Germany midfielder Toni Kroos is also preparing for his last club game before retirement.

    "I was able to play with both of them. Toni is an absolute icon and a sensational guy who has won everything," Brandt said.

    "Marco is also one of the reasons why I play for BVB. He was an idol for me as a child and teenager. It's still a lot of fun to train and play with him."

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