EPL

Premier League Fantasy Picks: From Brighton's man of the moment, to in-form goalkeeper with double gameweek

By Sports Desk February 03, 2023

With the cup competitions taking a back seat again for a moment, it's back to the Premier League this weekend.

As it's the first round of games since the transfer deadline passed, there's bound to be some new faces on display.

But new signings – particularly in January – can pose a bit of a risk at first in fantasy football, so sticking to what you know may be the way to go for now.

Harnessing Opta data, Stats Perform identifies some fantasy picks who will hopefully give you the edge.

David de Gea (Manchester United v Crystal Palace, and Manchester United v Leeds United)

Erik ten Hag has improved United in a host of ways, but arguably their most significant improvement has been defensively.

As such, De Gea's eight clean sheets this season is bettered by only Nick Pope (12) and Aaron Ramsdale (nine), with his average of 0.4 per 90 minutes his best record since the 2017-18 season.

United also have a double gameweek consisting of two home matches, the first of which is against Crystal Palace, whose haul of 18 goals scored is only better than five teams.

Benoit Badiashile (Chelsea v Fulham)

French centre-back Badiashile appears to have settled in well at Stamford Bridge, certainly making his presence known defensively with his 13 clearances across his two games bettered by just two players in the league.

Both of those matches have also resulted in clean sheets for Chelsea, who are starting to look a little sturdier at the back.

Fulham are an entirely different proposition this season compared to their usual efforts in the top flight, so they should not be taken lightly, but Badiashile is contributing to Chelsea being stronger defensively.

A third successive clean sheet is not out of the question.

Kaoru Mitoma (Brighton and Hove Albion v Bournemouth)

The man everyone seems to be talking about at the moment.

Mitoma is among the Premier League's most exciting players currently, with his brilliant ability with the ball at his feet getting fans off their seats.

But there is substance to his play as well. He has been involved in eight goals in his past 11 league outings, while only seven players have more than his five involvements since his first top-flight start on October 29.

Further to that, over the same period, James Ward-Prowse (33.3 per cent) is the only player with a better shot conversion rate (minimum 10 shots) than Mitoma (30.8 per cent).

Bournemouth have been warned.

Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa v Leicester City)

Watkins has not really kicked on since his promising first campaign in the Premier League, but there have been signs of promise under Unai Emery.

Since the Basque coach was appointed, Watkins' four goal involvements for Villa is a high in the Premier League, and up next is one of the division's leakiest defences on current form.

Leicester have conceded 10 league goals since the post-World Cup restart, with only Everton (11) letting in more.

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    Nashville beat Toronto FC on Wednesday, moving up to 10th in the Eastern Conference.

    Yet on Thursday, the team confirmed they had decided to part ways with Smith, who had been in charge for seven seasons.

    Smith won 52 MLS games during his spell in charge, while also leading Nashville to the Leagues Cup final in 2023.

    Nashville face Atlanta United on Saturday, with ex-player and now player development coach Rumba Munthali stepping in as interim head coach.

    No reason was provided for Smith's departure. He has been joined in leaving the club by assistant coach Steve Guppy.

    A Nashville statement read: "Nashville SC extends its gratitude to Smith and Guppy for their dedication and contributions to our team and wishes them and their families all the best in their future endeavours.

    "Under Smith's leadership, Nashville SC emerged as a very organised and hard-to-beat team in both leagues.

    "In the USL Championship, Smith guided the team to a 32-win record over two seasons, including two playoff appearances and a second-place finish in the Eastern Conference in 2019.

    "His transition to MLS with the club was seamless, leading Nashville to four consecutive MLS Cup playoff appearances, a feat only achieved by two other teams in the league's history."

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Nashville SC - Hany Mukhtar

    Mukhtar has scored five goals in nine career regular-season matches against Atlanta. Only Luciano Acosta (nine goals in 17 games) has scored more times against the Five Stripes.

    Atlanta United - Thiago Almada

    Almada has scored in all three of his career MLS matches against Nashville. No player has ever scored in four consecutive regular-season meetings versus Nashville, though Daryl Dike did score in four straight for Orlando City, including playoff games.

    MATCH PREDICTION: NASHVILLE WIN

    Despite Smith's departure, Opta's model still predicts a positive outcome for Nashville.

    Atlanta are winless in 11 straight MLS away matches (D5 L6 incl. playoffs) dating back to last September. It is the longest active road winless run in MLS.

    Nashville have won two straight home matches, their first regular-season home winning streak since a run of six straight last April-July. They managed just two wins in 12 home league games between the two streaks (D6 L4).

    Atlanta's 4-0 home win over Nashville last August ended a seven-match winless run for them in the series (D3 L4). Atlanta won their first visit to Nashville, 2-1, in the latter's inaugural match in March 2020, but the Five Stripes are winless in five visits in all competitions since (D2 L3).

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Nashville SC - 46.2%

    Atlanta United - 25.5%

    Draw - 28.3%

  • FC Cincinnati v St. Louis City: Noonan looking for improved performance despite Atlanta win FC Cincinnati v St. Louis City: Noonan looking for improved performance despite Atlanta win

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    "I wouldn't say 'negatives' but [there are] things we could have done better, and here we are with the guys keeping a clean sheet and winning the game," Noonan told reporters.

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    St. Louis saw a five-game unbeaten streak end as they lost 2-0 to Los Angeles FC in midweek.

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    "We don't have much time to sit and dwell, and we have to be brave and positive to head to Cincinnati."

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    FC Cincinnati – Kevin Kelsy

    In his first MLS start, Kelsy scored Cincinnati's lone goal on Wednesday. The 19-year-old has scored in consecutive games, making him the first teenager to score multiple MLS goals for Cincinnati, and if he gets the nod from the off again here, he will once more hope to mark it with a goal.

    St. Louis City – Joao Klauss

    Having netted four in his previous four games, Klauss drew a blank against LAFC as St. Louis slumped to defeat. He is clearly a key man in St. Louis' attack, and he will hope to get back among the goals this weekend, and with a win too.

    MATCH PREDICTION – CINCINNATI WIN

    St. Louis beat Cincinnati 5-1 in the lone previous meeting between the sides last April. The four-goal margin is Cincinnati’s largest defeat since the start of last season and equals St. Louis' largest ever margin of victory.

    But St. Louis are winless in eight straight away matches in all competitions (four draws, four defeats). St. Louis have won three of their last 23 on the road after winning the first three away matches in club history.

    Cincinnati have won five straight regular season matches with all five wins coming by one-goal margins, the first team to do so since the Red Bulls in 2012, and though it may be a tight game again this weekend, the hosts will fancy their chances of coming out on the right side of the result and collecting another three points.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Cincinnati: 44.3%

    St. Louis: 28.2%

    Draw: 27.5%

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    "It's a personal thing. Of course, I have no problem."

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