Last Sunday had the potential to change everything in the Premier League title race. Instead, it changed nothing.
Arsenal ended the weekend as they started it: five points clear of Manchester City with a game in hand.
Mikel Arteta's men took seven points from consecutive matches against third-placed Newcastle United, fifth-placed Tottenham and fourth-placed Manchester United.
They have passed the various tests left before them and maintained a healthy lead over City.
But they still have not played City themselves this season. That will change on Friday – just not in the Premier League.
The FA Cup fourth-round draw paired England's best two teams, providing a warm-up at the Etihad Stadium for their Emirates Stadium league clash in February.
These coming encounters are likely to bring more pressure for Arteta and Arsenal, who are without a title since 2004 and unfamiliar with such high-stakes matches of late.
The manager perhaps has a decision to make then on how to approach this cup tie – both in terms of his personnel and their approach.
When Arsenal exited the EFL Cup at home to Brighton and Hove Albion in early November, they did so with a team showing 10 changes to the line-up from their prior league win at Chelsea.
But does Arteta want to shuffle the pack again here and give the upper hand to City ahead of a far more important game in three weeks' time?
Speaking on Wednesday, Arteta weighed up the merits of cup progress – "that gives you more momentum, more confidence and prepares you better for the next match," he said – but he was also certain the league and cup matches would be "two very, very different games".
That was the case in Arsenal's double-winning campaign of 2001-02, when the Gunners beat eventual Premier League runners-up Liverpool at this stage of the FA Cup. That blood-and-thunder cup tie followed a fortnight after a tepid league draw.
Arsene Wenger praised the "outstanding" mental fortitude of his side, who were second at that point but did not lose another domestic match all season.
It was one of 16 examples – across 13 ties – in the Premier League era of the teams who finished first and second meeting in the FA Cup, EFL Cup or Champions League in the same season.
Although Arsenal's win against Liverpool was one of only seven victories for the league champions in those 16 attempts, another was the Gunners' round five win against Chelsea two years later, which was followed in their very next match by three points at Stamford Bridge that took them seven clear at the top.
Some consolation saw the Blues eliminate Arsenal from the Champions League later that season – a two-legged quarter-final tie around which Wenger's men stuttered in the league but clung to their unbeaten record.
In those cases, it appeared Arsenal benefited from getting a good look at their rivals in the first game before winning the second, precisely as Arteta suggested.
Meanwhile, the fear of losing momentum is understandable. Arsenal have played twice more against top-two rivals in the FA Cup and lost twice to Manchester United, who went on to take the title in both 1998-99 and 2002-03.
Such is the feel-good factor at Emirates Stadium right now, it is difficult to imagine defeat away to City with a much-changed team would dent Arsenal's confidence too significantly.
But heading home with a win on Friday would surely only increase belief in this side further.
Given the eight-day gap before the next Premier League match, Arteta – whose only major silverware to date was the FA Cup in 2019-20 – might be wise to consider this a helpful test rather than an unwanted distraction.
Martino 'won't take risks' but expects Messi to play this weekend
Gerardo Martino is expecting Lionel Messi to play for Inter Miami at home to D.C. United this weekend, though he emphasised he would not take "any risks".
Messi was absent as Miami were held to a 0-0 draw away at Orlando City last time out with what Martino described as a "bit of a niggle".
The goalless draw, combined with FC Cincinnati's win over Atlanta United, means Miami's lead at the top of the Eastern Conference has been closed to just a point ahead of this weekend's fixtures.
As Miami look to get back to winning ways this weekend, Martino believes Messi will be able to return, though he will not rush the former Barcelona man back onto the field.
"The fact is that he felt some pain in his movements and, given that we're on a run of three games in the space of a week, we felt the most sensible thing to do was leave him out of today's game," Martino told reporters.
"The plan is that he'll play on Saturday, but it’s going to depend on how he progresses. We’re not going to take any risks, and on Thursday and Friday we'll assess his fitness."
D.C. were handed a first loss in four as they were thumped 4-1 by the New York Red Bulls in midweek, but head coach Troy Lesesne believes the defeat does not cancel out the previous solid form displayed by his side.
"For the last three weeks, we can feel good about our performance, and tonight doesn’t just erase all that," Lesesne said.
“We're building still. We can recognise tonight was a setback.”
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Inter Miami – Luis Suarez
With Messi absent against Orlando, Suarez couldn't make it four straight games with a goal as he drew a blank. With Messi potentially missing again on Saturday, Suarez will be keen to get back among the goals to help his team to victory.
D.C. United – Christian Benteke
Benteke was held scoreless against the Red Bulls despite taking six shots in the match. It was Benteke’s third MLS match this season with at least six shots with all other D.C. players having combined to do that once in league play in 2024 (Gabriel Pirani). The former Liverpool man certainly isn't afraid of pulling the trigger, though he will be hoping this time to find the back of the net with one or more of his efforts at goal.
MATCH PREDICTION – MIAMI WIN
D.C. are unbeaten in three all-time matches at Miami. D.C. are the only opponent that have visited Miami more than once in regular season play and never lost.
Miami’s five-game winning streak ended Wednesday with a 0-0 draw with Orlando. Miami had exactly seven shots for the second straight match, the club’s first time having consecutive MLS matches with single-digit shots since May-June 2023.
In Wednesday’s 4-1 loss to the Red Bulls, D.C. attempted 22 shots while allowing 11. The plus-11 shot differential was United’s highest in a loss by three or more goals since a 3-0 loss to the Columbus Crew in April 2013 (+14).
In 2024, Miami have one win in their five MLS matches (two draws, two defeats) without Messi and seven victories in their nine games with him. The team’s goals per game average in MLS matches this season is 3.2 with Messi, and 1.2 without him.
Messi is clearly Miami's star man, then, and with him looking likely to feature this weekend, the hosts will be the favourites to return to winning ways at the top of the Eastern Conference.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Inter Miami - 50.8%
D.C United - 22.9%
Draw - 26.3%
Almeria 0-2 Barcelona: Fermin at the double in easy Blaugrana win
Barcelona remained on track to finish second in LaLiga after Fermin Lopez's brace sealed a 2-0 win over bottom side Almeria on Thursday.
Fermin gave Barca an early lead in the 14th minute when he headed past goalkeeper Luis Maximiano from Hector Fort's accurate cross.
Despite efforts from Cesar Montes and Lucas Robertone, Almeria were unable to find an equaliser.
Fermin netted his second from Sergi Roberto's cross to wrap up the win for Barca in the 67th minute.
Xavi's side are on 79 points, four clear of Catalan rivals Girona, whose hopes of finishing second are fading fast after Tuesday's 1-0 defeat to Villarreal.
Real Madrid, who have already clinched the title, continue to pull away from Barca after a 5-0 win over Alaves on Tuesday.
Data Debrief: Holding the Fort
Fort provided the assist for Barca's opener, his second assist of the campaign in LaLiga.
Three players aged under 20 have provided an assist in LaLiga for the Blaugrana this term – Lamine Yamal (four), Fort (two) and Gavi (one). That is not a statistic matched by any other team in Europe's top five leagues.
Charlotte FC v LA Galaxy: Smith looking to build on 'untidy' win over Fire
Dean Smith is looking for his Charlotte FC side to build upon their 1-0 win over the Chicago Fire when they host the LA Galaxy this weekend.
Charlotte made it three wins in a row as they narrowly beat the Fire during midweek thanks to Ashley Westwood's 60th-minute winner.
The three-match win streak has taken Charlotte all the way up to fifth in the Eastern Conference, and though Smith was not enthralled by the manner of the victory over Chicago, he appreciated his side's mindset.
"I saw the mentality, but I didn’t see a game of football that I liked. It certainly won’t make the highlight reel," Smith told reporters.
"It wasn't a thriller of any sort. It was an untidy game from both teams but we showed real good mentality to limit them to few chances, and we took the one we had from a set piece."
The Galaxy, meanwhile, drew 2-2 at Minnesota United on Wednesday, leaving them fifth in the Western Conference and four points off leaders Real Salt Lake.
Minnesota equalised with just 10 minutes to play, but Galaxy head coach Greg Vanney still thought it was a solid point for his side.
"We've got to try to take this point and start to heal and start to recover and move on to the next one," Vanney said.
"[It is a] good, hard-earned point at the end of the day even though there was a chance for us to get three there at the tail end."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Charlotte FC – Ashley Westwood
Westwood scored the lone goal in Charlotte’s win over Chicago on Wednesday at the hour mark. Nine of Charlotte's 11 goals since March 23 have been scored after half-time, and Westwood will be hoping to spur his side on once more this Saturday by finding the net again.
LA Galaxy – Riqui Puig
Puig assisted both of the Galaxy's goals against Minnesota on Wednesday after also recording assists on both Galaxy goals on Saturday against Salt Lake. Puig is the first Galaxy player to record multiple assists in consecutive matches since Romain Alessandrini in 2018, and he will hope to make it three such games in a row this weekend.
MATCH PREDICTION – CHARLOTTE WIN
Charlotte and the Galaxy have each recorded a 1-0 away win against the other. Both goals were scored after the 70th minute.
The Galaxy have drawn each of their last three matches with the last two ending 2-2. In their last 22 matches, the Galaxy have scored two or more goals 15 times and allowed two or more goals 17 times.
Charlotte have won three straight matches, keeping clean sheets in all three. This is the first time Charlotte have kept clean sheets in three straight matches in club history, and with home advantage this weekend, they look the favourites to pick up the three points on Saturday.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Charlotte: 47.3%
Galaxy: 25.8%
Draw: 26.9%
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