The first trophy of the Italian football season is on the line on Wednesday when fierce rivals Inter and Milan face off for the Supercoppa Italiana at the King Fahd International Stadium in Riyadh.
Scudetto holders Milan and last season's Coppa Italia winners Inter appear well out of the Serie A title race at the midway point this time around, trailing leaders Napoli by nine and 10 points respectively.
Inter are still in the mix for silverware elsewhere this campaign, though, as they have a Champions League last-16 tie with Porto on the horizon and are also through to the quarter-finals of the Coppa Italia.
As for Milan, they are also in the first knockout round of Europe's primary club competition – where Tottenham await over two legs – but they were eliminated from the Coppa Italia with a 1-0 defeat to Torino in extra time last week.
It is fair to say that Rossoneri head coach Stefano Pioli has a fair bit of money in the bank should this season end trophyless, having ended the club's 11-year wait for Scudetto success last season.
But defeat to neighbours Inter in Saudi Arabia, coupled with that big gap on Napoli, could lead to some questions being asked.
If that sounds extreme on the face of it, let us remember this is a club that got through seven managers in the seven years preceding Pioli's appointment.
Inzaghi has less goodwill to play with, and Italian outlet Gazzetta dello Sport reported in the build-up to the Supercoppa tie that the former striker has been told Wednesday's match must be used as a turning point in a below-par season.
The showdown between two of Italy's three most successful clubs has plenty riding on it, then, but what does recent history tell us about teams winning the Supercoppa and what it meant for the rest of their seasons?
Inzaghi to join elite list?
The Supercoppa has now been staged midway through the season in Saudi Arabia for three of the past five years (this is the final year of the arrangement), the exceptions being in 2020 and 2021 when it was held in Italy due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Since then, the reigning Serie A winners have prevailed against their opponents three times out of four. The anomaly in that sequence? A Lazio side managed by a certain Inzaghi that saw off Juventus 3-1.
Indeed, having also won the Supercoppa in 2019 and last year with Inter, Inzaghi could join legendary figures Fabio Capello and Marcelo Lippi as the most successful coaches in the competition's history.
Lazio also finished fourth in Serie A that season – the only time they have finished in the top four in the seven seasons either side – but they had entered the Supercoppa showdown with Juventus sitting one place higher.
From collecting 2.25 points per game across their 16 matches, Lazio's form dropped slightly to 1.91 per game in the final 22 games.
There are plenty of other factors to consider, of course, but the same was also true of Inter after winning this cup last season.
The Nerazzurri were top of the table on January 12 when beating Juventus 2-1 to lift their first piece of silverware under Inzaghi, averaging 2.45 points per game up until that point.
In the subsequent four months, that dipped to 1.94 points per game and they were pipped to the title by Milan, although they did at least win the Coppa Italia.
Familiar theme
Juve are another example of results dipping after winning the competition – as a direct consequence or otherwise – going from 2.79 points per game to 1.95 either side of defeating Milan in Jeddah.
However, given just how good they were in the first half of that season, they still retained top spot in Serie A.
Juventus in 2020-21 is the outlier in our sample as they improved on a return of 1.94 points per game on average to 2.14 either side of seeing off Napoli 2-0 on January 20, 2021.
The Bianconeri went from fifth to fourth and qualified for the Champions League, yet that was not enough to keep Andrea Pirlo in a job.
Effectively, then, teams tend to drop off after winning the Supercoppa, rather than using it as a platform to push on. And on more than one occasion, lifting the trophy has not been enough to keep a coach in place beyond that season.
So while Pioli and Inzaghi in particular will consider this an opportunity to potentially transform their respective sides' Serie A campaigns and reel in Napoli, the stats show that is highly unlikely to happen.
Guardiola: Foden can still get better after Player of the Year award
Pep Guardiola thinks Phil Foden can still get better, after the 23-year-old winning the Premier League’s Player of the Year.
Foden has been a pivotal part of City’s title challenge this season, scoring 17 goals and providing eight assists in the top-flight in 2023-24.
It is the youngster’s most prolific scoring season for City, while only six players have bettered Foden’s goal haul in the Premier League.
When asked about the strides that Foden has made this season, leading him to the award, Guardiola praised the England international’s influence on the squad.
"Obviously, he makes a step forward as a football player. In terms of minutes or time, but he's decisive in winning games," Guardiola said.
"Maybe before it was a glimpse of action, but now it's consistent. That is the truth, but they still have a margin. Sometimes his game is overexcited, it's over, and you have to be more calm because his excitement he has for himself, but we'll have question of time, but this season has been really, really important. Really, really important."
Foden has bettered his tally of 11 goals from last season and leads City’s squad for chances created this campaign with 68.
"He's moving forward, but I had the feeling he can be better, and I think he can do it because I've said many times, that he loves football," Guardiola added.
"He enjoys being on the pitch, and I think the feeling doesn't like when you have the day off.
"He likes to be in the training session doing less or more and I had the feeling it still can be better."
Manchester City can win a fourth-consecutive Premier League title on Sunday against West Ham, if they can match or better Arsenal's result.
Objectives met: Shabazz pleased with Golden Jaguars' showing despite losses to T&T
Despite losing both friendly encounters to Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana senior men’s Head coach Jamaal Shabazz says their objectives were met, as the players that made the trip to the twin island republic gained invaluable experience that will assist to shape their future in the sport.
The Golden Jaguars lost 1-2 and 0-2 to Angus Eve’s Soca Warriors at the Crawford Stadium, in Port of Spain, but for Shabazz, the fixtures served their purpose of gauging the readiness of players, who competed in recently concluded Round One of the KFC Elite League Season, especially with the Concacaf World Cup qualifiers scheduled to get under way next month.
“We did not win, but a lot of questions were answered as to who is ready to move into our full international squad. We achieved our other objectives. We got higher level match practice for the likes of Daniel Wilson, Kelsey Benjamin, Curtez Kellman, Colin Nelson and Ryan Hackett, all of whom travel with our first team. We gave valuable exposure to players like Marcus Tudor, Simeon Moore, Chris Macey and Stephen McDonald, just to name a few,” Shabazz shared.
“It is clear that player for player we were able to match our opponents. Some boys gave a good account of themselves, and some were a bit nervous. Most importantly, the lads would have learnt a few lessons for their future, like the margin for error at international level is small and the need for more composure in front of goal,” he added.
Aside from those he mentioned, Shabazz also had three overseas-based players from Canada, France and the United States, in his 24-member squad, and by all indications, a few more might be assessed, as the tactician prepares to select his final squad for the qualifiers.
Guyana will contest Group D of the qualifiers, alongside Panama, Montserrat, Belize and Nicaragua. They are set to open against Panama in Panama City on June 6, followed by the Belize encounter on June 11 in Barbados.
Shabazz expressed gratitude for the continued support in gifting local-based players the opportunity to showcase their potential, and challenge for spots in the final squad.
“I must thank the Government of Guyana and the Guyana Football Federation for enabling this exposure for the home-based players. At least twice a year we should get these types of matches for home-based players to develop,” Shabazz noted.
Guardiola: Other clubs have a chance to win the title against Man City
Pep Guardiola believes that other clubs do have the chance to win the Premier League while he is the Manchester City manager.
Guardiola has led the Citizens to five top-flight titles in his seven seasons in charge, including each of the last three in a row.
They have the opportunity to win an unprecedented fourth consecutive Premier League campaign – they must match or better Arsenal’s result on the final day against West Ham to finish top of the table.
Asked what he thought about the narrative that suggested other teams struggle to win the title while he is at City, Guardiola immediately brushed the idea aside.
He said: "It is wrong, look at the margin. If every season I won by 20 points, then I would say yes I am a genius, I'm so good, but it's not.
"The Premier League we won against Liverpool they could have won. Arsenal can win, we can win. It's like that.
"My judgement about the team, about how we behave, nothing changed, nothing changed. My opinion of Liverpool this year has not changed, whether they have won or not won.
"I know here there is just a prize for the winners and the winners smell good and everyone won a copy and everything, but it's not.
"It's not the case because behind of arriving here in the last press conference of the season before the last game of the Premier League there are a lot of work, like Liverpool was and Arsenal have been this season."
Guardiola was also quick to highlight the hard work of everybody at the club during their title challenge.
"It's not because of what we have done in the past gives you this season, it's completely the opposite," he continued.
"There are a lot of work for all departments. How many my backroom staff, the medical department, the physio department, how they care all the seasons, every single few, few injuries.
"Injuries are always there, but the balance is ridiculous, how good it is, and that's because there is a lot of work, they care about the players and the people, you know, every single day, hours and hours being above the players, you have to do this, you have to do this, you have to do this to be fit. So otherwise, we cannot be where we are."
The City manager was also asked about his future at the club, and whether he would be continuing past the end of the season.
"Yeah, I have a contract. I want to be here next season, yes," he added.
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