Urs Fischer is not the kind of coach to get overexcited easily. Indeed, there has been little serious talk of a title charge at Union Berlin, despite the fact they have occupied one of the top three spots for much of the season.

"It's even more surreal than it was before the game," Fischer said after Union won 2-1 at RB Leipzig on February 11. "Forty-two points in the 20th round, what should I say?"

A week before, Fischer had insisted 40 points was the only target after Union scraped an unconvincing home win over Mainz.

But that target has been surpassed, and next up it's Bayern Munich, and if Union win, then why shouldn't their fans, players and even coach start to think that something magical could be just around the corner?

The only frustration for Union ahead of Sunday's trip to Allianz Arena is that they do not head to the home of the 10-time reigning champions as league leaders.

Bayern's defeat at Borussia Monchengladbach last Saturday handed Union, hosting lowly Schalke a day later, a chance to move top with a win. Yet a frustrating 0-0 draw, the first time they had dropped points since before the World Cup, instead sees them sit third, with Borussia Dortmund having leapfrogged into second.

All three teams sit on 43 points and, with 13 rounds of games remaining, the title race is wide open.

Union returned to form in style on Thursday, beating Dutch giants Ajax 3-1 at home to seal their progression in the Europa League.

"It really doesn't get any better. I'm not only proud of the team, we can all be proud of ourselves," said Fischer afterwards.

With the help of Opta data and a German football expert, Stats Perform looks at what has been behind Union's remarkable campaign.

More than one way to play

"Everybody is obsessed with pressing, pressing and pressing, leaving huge gaps for players to exploit," Lewis Ambrose, a football writer based in Berlin, told Stats Perform.

"Why I think [Union] are doing so well is they just don't buy into that. It's about protecting our box and the other team can have it as much as they want, they're just not allowed to do what they want with it."

The data suggests this is the case. Union head into Sunday's game with the fewest pressed sequences of any side in the Bundesliga.

On average, they allow their opponents 15.8 passes outside their own defensive third before a defensive action occurs. Opta defines this as passes per defensive action (PPDA).

PPDA is the number of opposition passes allowed outside the pressing team's own defensive third, divided by the number of defensive actions by the pressing team outside their own defensive third. Essentially, a lower number means a team presses more frequently, while a higher number suggests a more passive approach.

Union have won the ball back in the opposition's third on 76 occasions across 21 league games this season, the second-lowest total in the Bundesliga after Bayer Leverkusen (69). Heading into the weekend, they also ranked in the bottom six for high turnovers (151) and bottom four for shot-ending high turnovers (19), scoring just once from such situations.

Bayern, on the other hand, lead the league with 138 instances of winning possession in the opposition defensive third, while they have the lowest PPDA (10.4). Their six goals from high turnovers is a joint-league high along with Eintracht Frankfurt, while Bayern are way clear in terms of high turnovers (237) and shot-ending high turnovers (42).

But Union are going about things their own way, and it's one of the secrets to their success.

Defence first

"Most Bundesliga teams are happy to play in a 'you score three, we'll score four' type of way, and it all ties into nipping the ball high up the pitch," Ambrose explained.

"Union have gone 'let's make sure nobody takes the ball in our final third, and they'll come onto us and leave gaps that way'. 

"In a league where everybody plays one way, they play the complete opposite way."

Sunday's game is between the two sides to have outperformed their expected goals (xG) more than any other Bundesliga teams this season. 

Bayern's league-high 45.03 xG has been improved on by 15.97, with the team scoring 61 goals, and this is by far the biggest margin in the competition. Union, meanwhile, have netted 11.15 goals more than they would have been expected to, based on the quality of opportunities they have created and shots they have taken (35 goals from 23.85 xG).

Going the other way, Union have conceded the second-fewest goals in the league (24), behind only Bayern (21). Yet their defence has been the best when it comes to expected goals against (xGA).

Union have actually conceded close to four goals more than would have been anticipated. This, combined with their 23.7 expected goals on target conceded (xGOT), which gives more credit to shots that end up in the corners compared with shots that go straight down the middle of the goal, shows they have been subject to some quality finishing from the opposition.

An uncompromising coach

Fischer was hardly the most celebrated of defenders during his playing career, which he spent entirely in his home country of Switzerland.

His coaching career, too, saw him lead FC Zurich, Thun and Basel before he made the move to Germany's second tier in 2018. The rest, as they say, is history.

Fischer got Union promoted in his first season in charge and after securing 11th in the 2019-20 season, took them up to seventh the following year and a remarkable fifth last term.

He has overseen 123 Bundesliga matches, winning 53 (43.1), losing 38 and drawing the other 32. As you'd expect, his team do not score many (176 in 123 Bundesliga matches, an average of 1.4 per game), but equally they keep things tight, conceding 169. Fischer has averaged 1.55 points per game in the top flight.

Ambrose believes Union are the perfect fit for Fischer, saying: "I can't imagine Fischer taking one of the top jobs in Germany and doing well.

"The only way it's ever going to work is if every player buys in, leaves their ego at the door, parks that to one side and is willing to sacrifice having fun on the pitch. I'm sure they're having the time of their lives, but if they're willing to sacrifice any flair, ego, they have to fight for the team and every loose ball."

The noisy neighbours

Hertha Berlin have for years been the prominent club in Germany's capital, but as they struggle at the wrong end of the table after scraping to survival last season, it's Union who are taking the bragging rights.

Since Union's promotion in 2019, they have won six of the nine derby meetings with their city rivals, who have taken just two victories. Union have won the last four by an aggregate score of 12-4.

"They're the model club," Ambrose says. "They don't spend much money, the fans get involved, the results improve, whereas Hertha have pumped money in chasing magic results and fallen deeper into crisis."

Going all the way...

Bayern are unbeaten against Union Berlin in the Bundesliga (W4, D3) – they have only faced Rot-Weiss Oberhausen and SV Darmstadt (both eight times) more often in the top flight without ever losing. Indeed, Bayern are the only current top-flight side that Union have never managed to beat.

Yet a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture in August showed Union's mettle, and what better time to break their duck than now? After all, they have more league wins than Julian Nagelsmann's team this season (13 to 12) and have won each of their last three Bundesliga away games, equalling a club record.

Ambrose thinks Union will ultimately fall short due to results such as last week's draw to Schalke, but he sees no reason why the underdogs shouldn't believe they can pull off a sporting miracle.

"If they lose on Sunday, or finish six, seven points short, nobody is going to say they've failed," he said.

"I think they think they can [win the league] and they'll never admit it. They won't buy into the idea of a race, they're just riding the wave and enjoy it week by week.

"They'll back themselves to win any game at home because the atmosphere is brilliant and teams hate going there, and they'll probably back themselves to beat anyone away as well.

"There's no reason for them not to believe."

Thomas Muller will start Bayern Munich's clash with title rivals Union Berlin on Sunday after he was hauled off early on in the defeat to Borussia Monchengladbach.

Head coach Julian Nagelsmann replaced captain Muller with Joao Cancelo after just 16 minutes against Monchengladbach, making a tactical substitution with Bayern a goal behind and down to 10 men after Dayot Upamecano's early red card.

The champions went on to lose 3-2, another blow to their hopes of winning an 11th consecutive Bundesliga title as their challengers made ground.

Nagelsmann's decision to replace veteran Muller so early came under scrutiny after the match, having also chosen to start him on the bench for Bayern's 1-0 Champions League first-leg victory over Paris Saint-Germain.

With the Bavarian side facing shock title challengers Union this weekend, Nagelsmann confirmed the 33-year-old will be in the starting XI.

"Thomas is a very experienced player, he was told why the decision was made," Nagelsmann said at his pre-match press conference. "You can always discuss it afterwards. I spoke to Thomas at length and clearly he is not happy.

"He is very professional and an important player. His importance is huge because it goes beyond the game itself. He will start on Sunday. He is aware of the overall situation."

The slip-up against Monchengladbach allowed Borussia Dortmund and Union to both pull level on points with Bayern at the top, though the champions' goal difference means they clung onto their position at the summit.

Nagelsmann's men have picked up just nine of a possible 18 points since the turn of the year, while Sunday's opponents have taken 16 over the same period.

A tricky encounter is expected against Union, who have never won a Bundesliga match against Bayern in seven attempts.

"I'm expecting a top game," Nagelsmann said. "Union always bring their football onto the pitch, designed for counter-attacks, with their physicality. It's always uncomfortable to play them.

"It will definitely be an exciting and interesting game, hopefully with a better outcome for us."

Nagelsmann revealed Bayern could be boosted by the return at some point in the game of Sadio Mane, who has been absent since early November after suffering a leg injury that ruled him out of Senegal's World Cup campaign.

"Sadio Mane isn't fit enough to start," Nagelsmann added. "But he is an option that we're really happy about."

Manchester United have been drawn to face Real Betis in the Europa League's round of 16, while Arsenal will battle Sporting CP for a quarter-final spot.

United came from behind to clinch a 2-1 victory over Barcelona at Old Trafford on Thursday, and their reward for a 4-3 aggregate triumph over the Blaugrana is a tie against another Spanish opponent.

Having not lifted any silverware since winning this competition in 2017, United are in the hunt for four trophies this term, though Erik ten Hag's men will be tested by a side sat fifth in LaLiga.

Betis boss Manuel Pellegrini has faced United on four previous occasions in European competitions, with all four games finishing goalless during his time with Villarreal (in the 2005-06 and 2008-09 Champions League group stages).

Premier League leaders Arsenal will face Sporting after Ruben Amorim's team thrashed Midtjylland 5-1 on aggregate in the knockout round play-offs.

Sporting have progressed from each of their previous six ties against English teams in the knockout stages of the UEFA Cup/Europa League, with all six coming against different teams.

The other standout last-16 ties see Juventus meet Freiburg, while Jose Mourinho's Roma will take on Real Sociedad as they bid to follow up last season's inaugural Europa Conference League triumph.  

Feyenoord, who Roma beat in the final of that competition, have been paired with Shakhtar Donetsk, while surprise Bundesliga challengers Union Berlin will face Belgium's Union Saint-Gilloise.

Six-time winners Sevilla – the most successful club in UEFA Cup/Europa League history – will face Fenerbahce, while Bayer Leverkusen will take on Ferencvaros. 

The first legs of the last-16 ties will take place on March 9, with the group-stage winners hosting the return fixtures one week later. 

Europa League last-16 draw in full

Bayer Leverkusen v Ferencvaros
Juventus v Freiburg
Manchester United v Real Betis
Roma v Real Sociedad
Sevilla v Fenerbahce
Shakhtar Donetsk v Feyenoord
Sporting CP v Arsenal
Union Berlin v Union Saint-Gilloise

Marco Reus fired red-hot Borussia Dortmund into a three-way tie at the top of the Bundesliga and declared: "We want to keep riding this wave."

The captain was restored to Dortmund's starting line-up on Sunday after sitting out the midweek Champions League win over Chelsea, taking over from Jude Bellingham who dropped to the bench and handed over the armband.

Reus hit a stunning free-kick for Dortmund's third goal in a 4-1 win over Hertha Berlin, thrilling a crowd of 81,365 at Signal Iduna Park, with Karim Adeyemi, Donyell Malen and Julian Brandt also on the scoresheet.

Bellingham came on as a second-half substitute and achieved his 50th Bundesliga victory. At 19 years and 235 days old, it made the England midfielder the youngest player to ever reach that landmark. There could be plenty more to celebrate this season for the teenager.

The only real negative for Dortmund was a leg muscle injury Adeyemi sustained when setting up the second goal for Malen, with the forward likely to be absent for several weeks.

Dortmund have won all eight of their games since the German season resumed after the World Cup and winter break, powering into a tie for top spot having looked out of the title race just a matter of weeks ago.

"Before the winter break, nobody expected it to be so tight at the top of the table," Reus said. "We started a run that we continued today. We want to continue riding this wave, and in the end you will see what comes of it."

Union Berlin are the surprise package in the three-team group at the summit. Opta records show this is the first time in the three-points-for-a-win era, which began in 1995-96, that three teams have been tied on points at the top after matchday 21 in the Bundesliga.

Speaking to DAZN, Reus said: "You win, but you also can't give an inch, otherwise it will be difficult. We don't play the stars from the sky, we are effective. When I scored my free-kick, I realised as soon as the ball left my foot that it could be dangerous.

"I'm happy that after a long time I was able to score a free-kick goal again."

It was a first direct free-kick goal for Reus in the Bundesliga since he scored one against Bayer Leverkusen in May 2021, which itself came after a five-year wait.

The strike came shortly after Bellingham entered the fray, with Dortmund pulling away over the closing quarter.

Union missed a chance to take the outright lead in the title race, only managing a 0-0 draw at home against bottom side Schalke earlier on Sunday.

Bayern hold top spot thanks to their superior goal difference (plus 40), with Dortmund second and Union third, but it is clear this is now a proper title scrap.

The momentum is with Dortmund, given Bayern were beaten 3-2 at Borussia Monchengladbach on Saturday.

A Klassiker awaits in six weeks' time, when there could be plenty at stake.

Goalscorer Brandt said: "We still have a long way to go, but it's the same for Union and Bayern. We fought our way out of our situation before the winter break extremely well. I'm most happy today for Marco Reus, who scored a wonderful goal."

Dortmund coach Edin Terzic will wait to see how Adeyemi comes through tests on his injury, but the prospects of him returning soon look minimal.

"He probably won't be available to us for the next few games," Terzic said, "but we hope that it won't be too long before he can be back."

RB Leipzig captain Willi Orban could miss the Bundesliga clash with Union Berlin on Saturday as he attempts to save a life.

The defender will undergo a procedure to donate his stem cells in Dresden on Wednesday after recently finding he is a match for a patient who has blood cancer.

Orban, who has been registered with the DKMS (German national bone marrow donor registry) since 2017, has been taking special injections since Saturday in order to increase the number of stem cells in his bloodstream.

The 30-year-old may sit out the showdown between his fourth-placed side and a Union side that are in second place due to having a much more important commitment.

He told the club's official website: "Of course I was surprised when I received the info that I was a match. I without a doubt wanted to make the donation as soon as possible.

"I have the chance to potentially save another person's life with very little effort. It was a no-brainer. I hope my donation will help the recipient to recover from their illness.

"I might of course miss the Union game but even with my sporting ambitions, football is of secondary importance. Those who know me know that I will do everything I can in order to rejoin the team as soon as possible.

"I hope this inspires more people to register. The process was really simple and I feel like I've been very well looked after. My example shows that it makes total sense to register."

Manchester City have reportedly identified Brighton and Hove Albion midfielder Alexis Mac Allister as their desired replacement for Ilkay Gundogan at the end of the season.

Mac Allister, 24, is enjoying a career-best season, with his five goals in 17 Premier League fixtures already matching his best ever tally for a full league season.

The talented creative midfielder also made six starts for Argentina during their march to victory at the Qatar World Cup, scoring his first senior international goal during a 2-0 win over Poland in the group stage.

His emergence as a player capable of shining on the world stage, as well as his contribution to Brighton's terrific season, has apparently caught the eye of City boss Pep Guardiola.

TOP STORY – CITY VIEW MAC ALLISTER AS IDEAL GUNDOGAN REPLACEMENT

According to Fichajes, Gundogan is expected to leave City when his contract expires at the end of the season, and Bernardo Silva could follow if he gets his wish with a LaLiga move.

The report states Guardiola is a big fan of Mac Allister, and believes he has proven himself as a capable Premier League producer.

Fichajes claim Brighton have set an asking price in the range of £40million, indicating they are more willing to part ways with him than 21-year-old Moises Caicedo, with both of their contracts expiring in 2025.

ROUND-UP

– ESPN is reporting Napoli will hold firm with an asking price of at least €100m (£90m) for 24-year-old striker Victor Osimhen, who has strong interest from Manchester United and Paris Saint-Germain.

– According to 90min, Chelsea's top priority now is sorting out a contract extension for 24-year-old England international Mason Mount.

– Mason Greenwood will look to revive his career in China if United decide to let him go, per the Sun.

– Caught Offside is reporting West Ham and Everton will have to return after the season if they want to sign 27-year-old winger Sheraldo Becker, with Union Berlin unwilling to deal in January due to their strong league position.

Isco will not be joining Union Berlin after a planned move for the former Real Madrid attacking midfielder collapsed on transfer deadline day.

Reports in Germany said Isco had completed a medical and was poised to sign for the team who sit second in the Bundesliga, one point behind Bayern Munich.

The 30-year-old was released by Sevilla after just four months at the club in December and looked set for a new challenge in Berlin.

However, the anticipated switch broke down just hours before the deadline, which in Germany falls at 18:00 local time (17:00 GMT).

Both parties blamed the other, with Union sporting director Oliver Ruhnert saying in a statement posted on Twitter by the club: "We would have liked to see Isco play for us, but we have our limits.

"Today these were exceeded, despite our previous agreement, which is why the transfer will not take place."

Isco's management company, Gestifute, was quoted in German newspaper Bild as stating: "In the course of the talks, we had to realise that our negotiating partner was no longer willing to move within the framework originally discussed."

Union, who face Wolfsburg in a DFB-Pokal game on Tuesday, have won their three Bundesliga games since the World Cup and winter break in their surprise title challenge.

Isco began his career with spells at Valencia and Malaga, before spending nine years with Madrid, leaving the Santiago Bernabeu at the end of last season.

Barcelona will face Manchester United in their return to the Europa League after the Blaugrana were drawn against the Premier League club in the knockout round play-offs.

Xavi's side dropped into Europe's second-tier competition for the second season running after failing to progress from the Champions League group stages, finishing behind Bayern Munich and Inter.

It sets up the outstanding tie with Erik ten Hag's United, who are looking to end a trophy drought stretching back to when they last won the Europa League under Jose Mourinho in 2017.

United came second to Real Sociedad in the Europa League group stage, ultimately missing out to La Real by one goal.

They have paid the price for their failure in that regard, with Barca arguably the toughest draw they could possibly get and La Real already through to the competition's last 16.

Joining Barca in dropping down from the Champions League are Juventus, though they will likely be much more content with their draw after being paired with Ligue 1 side Nantes.

Europa League knockout round play-offs:

Barcelona v Manchester United
Juventus v Nantes
Sporting CP v Midtjylland
Shakhtar Donetsk v Rennes
Ajax v Union Berlin
Bayer Leverkusen v Monaco
Sevilla v PSV
Salzburg v Roma

Bayer Leverkusen head coach Xabi Alonso has hailed his side for an "important" victory against Union Berlin on Sunday, after smashing five past Union Berlin.

The Spaniard's side faced a tough test against Union at BayArena, with the visitors knowing a victory would see them reclaim top spot in the Bundesliga ahead of Bayern Munich.

After a goalless first half, Robert Andrich broke the deadlock a minute after the restart to spark a frantic second period, with a brace from Moussa Diaby followed by efforts from Adam Hlozek and Mitchel Bakker.

The win was the joint-highest win for a Bundesliga side against a league leader this millennium, equalling the score achieved by Bayern against Borussia Dortmund in April 2019.

Crucially for the hosts, it also brought an end to a six-match winless streak across all competitions and marked only the third league win for Leverkusen this season, leading Alonso to praise his side's performance.

"The first half was very close, neither side had many chances and it wasn't easy to attack. Union are standing so high in the table for a reason," he said in the post-match press conference.

"In the second half we wanted to stay focused. We had more spaces, our fast players could run deep and were very good at finishing. We are very happy today.

"Today was important. We want to continue in the same way. We always need that mentality to attack and score goals, to stay hungry.

"The 2-0 made the big difference. We defended going forward, the pressure from Jeremie Frimpong was good. That's the mentality we want to have."

Alonso's side now have two Bundesliga matches against Koln and Stuttgart before the World Cup in Qatar, with the league campaign set to resume on January 22.

Bayern Munich have been drawn against Mainz in the last 16 of the DFB-Pokal, while Borussia Dortmund face a derby showdown with Bochum.

Record 20-time winners Bayern saw off Viktoria Koln and Augsburg to reach the third round for the first time in three seasons.

Julian Nagelsmann's side now face a tricky trip to Mainz, who are sixth in the Bundesliga and have defeated Bayern in their past two meetings on home soil.

Dortmund have also been drawn against top-flight opposition, with a trip to local rivals Bochum awaiting them when the ties are played at the end of January.

Defending champions RB Leipzig will host Hoffenheim, meanwhile, and surprise Bundesliga leaders Union Berlin are at home to Wolfsburg.

Elsewhere, Sandhausen have been drawn against Freiburg, Stuttgart face a trip to Paderborn, Eintracht Frankfurt host Darmstadt and Nurnberg will meet Fortuna Dusseldorf.

Bayern head coach Julian Nagelsmann has hit back at those questioning whether his side is creative enough, while making it clear he is not concerned by the current standings.

The defending champions came from behind to draw 1-1 with Union Berlin on Saturday, their second draw in a row after winning each of their opening three matches.

Bayern came out of the blocks flying at the start of the season, scoring 15 goals in five matches, but have lost their knack in the final third in their last two Bundesliga matches.

Nagelsmann rebuffed suggestions Bayern were not doing enough with the ball, however, pointing to the club's positive goal difference and creativity in last week's draw with Borussia Monchengladbach.

"That's a bold thing to say. We had four clear chances today. Against Gladbach we had 31 shots - I think that's creative enough," he said, "[We have] plus 14 goal difference. We just lacked efficiency and made wrong decisions.

"It was a fair result. We didn't create as many chances as against Gladbach, so we can't speak about two missed points. We were sloppy and not at the level of the past weeks. Union defended with passion, were disciplined, compact and deserved the point."

After being questioned on Bayern's third-place standing in the early Bundesliga standings, Nagelsmann made it clear it is not something he is thinking about at this stage.

"I always want to win and our aim is to win the title. We're still on matchday five, so I don't give a s*** about being third," he declared.

Bayern's sights will now be set on the midweek Champions League clash with Inter, in which Nagelsmann is keen for his squad to return to the style they showed in the opening weeks of the season.

"We should go back to the energy levels of the past weeks against Inter," he added.

"Inter play at home in the Champions League, so I don't think they will play as defensively as Union did today, although I said there are parallels between the two teams."

Bayern Munich failed to bounce back to winning ways in the Bundesliga as Union Berlin doggedly held them to a 1-1 draw at Alte Forsterei on Saturday.

The champions slipped up for the first time this top-flight season previously against Borussia Monchengladbach, and were looking to get back on track away from home.

But Julian Nagelsmann's side were forced to settle for a point that means both they and Urs Fischer's opponents stay locked behind Borussia Dortmund at the summit, in a match that struggled to live up to its explosive start.

Any idea of a quiet afternoon in the capital looked to have been swiftly dashed in a blockbuster opening quarter of an hour, which saw the hosts fire home first before the visitors hit back barely three minutes later.

Sheraldo Becker chopped a fine volley across the face of goal off a looping free kick for Union, before Bayern promptly responded through Joshua Kimmich's rifled finish.

Leroy Sane subsequently went close twice over the final stages of the first half, forcing a save and steering another effort wide.

That looked to set the table for a dramatic encounter after the break, only for the home side to double down on a defensive approach that saw them hold just over a fifth of the possession throughout, lying deep to frustrate their rivals.

Bayern continued to launch wave after wave of offensive action to no avail, with both Sane and Sadio Mane coming close to finding a winner – but ultimately, they were held stubbornly at bay for a cagey share of the points.

Julian Nagelsmann insisted Bayern Munich sporting director Hasan Salihamidzic did not mean to offend when he said the club's training matches could be better spectacles than Bundesliga games.

The comments from Salihamidzic came in a wide-ranging interview with German broadcaster Sky Sport, as he answered a question about Tottenham's Harry Kane by pointing out the wealth of attacking talent already in Bayern's ranks.

Salihamidzic said in the interview, released on Thursday: "If you look at the training sessions, it's great fun to watch. Some training games are better than Bundesliga games."

It was the sort of throwaway comment that could be interpreted as a provocative remark towards Bayern's Bundesliga rivals.

Bayern have won 10 consecutive German league titles, an unprecedented run of success, sweeping all before them over the last decade and looking strong again this season.

They have 10 points from four games so far, and only Saturday's opponents Union Berlin have matched that haul.

Asked about Salihamidzic's comments, Nagelsmann said on Friday: "We don't want to offend any Bundesliga club. I think 'Brazzo' [Salihamidzic] didn't want to talk about the quality of the Bundesliga as much as he wanted to emphasise that we have a good team spirit on the pitch.

"They cheer each other on during training and it's always a good vibe. But in training you can play from the soul because there is a different pressure. Only the results count in the Bundesliga. Brazzo just said that we train well."

Bayern dropped points for the first time this season in their 1-1 draw with Borussia Monchengladbach last weekend. They had 20 shots on target against the Foals, though, setting a new record for a single Bundesliga game since detailed data collection began in 2004-05.

Bayern begin their Champions League campaign next week, facing Serie A giants Inter on Wednesday at San Siro.

Nagelsmann suspects Saturday's domestic assignment will be an ideal test ahead of that game. Ominously for Union, Bayern have scored 13 goals in their first two Bundesliga away games this term – a new league record.

"Inter and Union are similar in some respects, especially with their two strikers," said Nagelsmann. "It won't be a bad scouting game for Inter."

Bayern will be without the injured Mathys Tel and Bouna Sarr, but Leon Goretzka came through his first-team return when he came off the bench and scored in the 5-0 DFB-Pokal win over Viktoria Koln on Wednesday.

After a knee injury lay-off, Nagelsmann will hope to have Goretzka fit enough for regular starts before long.

"I hope that he stays healthy and that we manage his stress in a healthy way," Nagelsmann said.

Bayern are unbeaten in their six Bundesliga games against Union Berlin (W4 D2).

They have only faced Rot-Weiss Oberhausen and SV Darmstadt more often in the top flight without ever losing (both eight times).

Indeed, Bayern are the only current Bundesliga side Union have never managed to beat.

Another Bundesliga campaign kicks off on Friday after a frantic close-season saw Germany's top flight robbed of its two biggest stars.

Bayern Munich superstar Robert Lewandowski left for Barcelona, while fellow striking sensation Erling Haaland departed Borussia Dortmund as expected for Manchester City.

What do these moves do to shake up the Bundesliga, then? Perhaps not an awful lot...

Stats Perform AI has predicted the outcome of the coming campaign, estimating the likelihood of teams finishing in each position informed by their expected results in each match.

These are calculated using betting odds and Stats Perform's team rankings – based on historical and recent team performances – and have thrown up some interesting results, even if the title race is a little too predictable.

MANE TO MAINTAIN BAYERN DOMINANCE

Lewandowski's exit was offset by the arrival of Sadio Mane at Bayern, and Stats Perform AI expects Julian Nagelsmann's side to again charge clear at the top of the table.

Bayern have won 10 consecutive titles, so perhaps it is no surprise they are given an 84.93 per cent chance of taking the trophy home again in May.

That figure makes Bayern the most likely champions across all of Europe's top five leagues, with nearest contenders Dortmund only in with a 6.01 per cent shot.

RB Leipzig (4.64 per cent), Bayer Leverkusen (3.38 per cent) lead a group of 10 other clubs who are given at least a slim hope of winning the championship.

For six teams – including 2003-04 champions Werder Bremen and 2006-07 victors Stuttgart – their title tilt is over before a ball has even been kicked.

SCRAMBLE OUTSIDE THE TOP FOUR

Unfortunately, the top-four tussle appears as predictable as Bayern's coronation.

The champions will of course occupy one Champions League spot – their 99.53 per cent chance again the greatest across the top five leagues – while Dortmund (76.78 per cent), Leipzig (72.2 per cent) and Leverkusen (62.98 per cent) also look secure, forecast second, third and fourth respectively.

That means a return to Europe's elite competition for all of those who have qualified this year, even if Leipzig have leapfrogged Leverkusen.

Stats Perform AI suggests Union Berlin (4.66 per cent) and Freiburg (8.22 per cent) – one and three points outside the top four last term – have missed their shot, with Borussia Monchengladbach (22.94 per cent) and Eintracht Frankfurt (21.5 per cent) the most likely gatecrashers despite last season finishing 10th and 11th.

Eintracht are also in the Champions League this term after winning the Europa League, but they are considered the team most likely to return to the second-tier competition (13.32 per cent).

There could be a real scrap for those final European places, though. All but four teams have at least a 1.0 per cent likelihood of qualifying for the Europa Conference League, with title favourites Bayern one of those four.

SCHALKE AND WERDER FACE A FIGHT

Schalke and Werder – two of the great names of German football – have returned to the top flight following successful promotion campaigns in the 2. Bundesliga last season, but they face tricky first seasons back in the big time.

The ceiling for Schalke is a little higher, so Stats Perform AI has them finishing in the relegation play-off place in 16th.

This is despite two teams – Augsburg (14.02 per cent) and Werder (13.9 per cent) – being more likely to qualify for that play-off than Schalke (13.3 per cent).

Werder are ranked 17th, while the outlook for Augsburg is awful; 14th in the Bundesliga in 2021-22, they have a new coach in ex-Dortmund II boss Enrico Maassen and are considered a strong 38.19 per cent shot for relegation.

Bochum (30.84 per cent) are also in a little trouble, with Hertha Berlin (11.62 per cent) backed to pull away and finish 12th after their play-off scare last time out.

Newly promoted Premier League club Nottingham Forest have broken their transfer record to sign forward Taiwo Awoniyi.

Forest, who have returned to the top flight for the 2022-23 season after 23 years away, reportedly triggered a £17.2million (€20m) release clause in Awoniyi's Union Berlin contract.

The Nigeria international spent six years at Liverpool but only received a UK work permit last year, shortly before departing for Union in a permanent transfer.

Liverpool are reportedly due to receive 10 per cent of the fee paid by Forest for Awoniyi, who scored 15 times in 31 Bundesliga games last season.

In all competitions, the striker – who spent the previous campaign on loan at Union and was also linked to Newcastle United – netted 20 goals in 43 appearances.

Awoniyi has signed a five-year contract at The City Ground and boosts a side who relied on winger Brennan Johnson as their primary source of goals as they came up through the Championship play-offs. Johnson scored 18 league goals.

"I'm very excited to be here at Nottingham Forest," said Awoniyi, whose signing surpasses the club's previous record outlay of £13.2m on Joao Carvalho in 2018.

"It's always been my dream to play in the Premier League, and having spoken to Steve Cooper about our ambitions and looking at Forest, with its great history, it's a club that I want to be part of."

Awoniyi is widely expected to be followed to Forest by Manchester United and England goalkeeper Dean Henderson.