Harry Kane made little impact as Bayern Munich’s week went from bad to worse following a shock 1-0 loss in the first leg of their Champions League last-16 clash with Lazio.

Ciro Immobile’s second-half penalty proved the difference at Stadio Olimpico to pile pressure on Bayern boss Thomas Tuchel on the back of a damaging 3-0 defeat at title rivals Bayer Leverkusen.

England captain Kane, who is one short of reaching 50 club goals in European competition, barely touched the ball during a tight battle between two former Chelsea managers in the Italian capital.

His side dominated possession before Maurizio Sarri’s men snatched a slender aggregate advantage when Immobile sent Manuel Neuer the wrong way from 12 yards in the 69th minute after Dayot Upamecano was dismissed for a late challenge on Gustav Isaksen.

Leroy Sane and Jamal Musiala went closest for the German club, who have plenty to do in the return match at Allianz Arena on March 5.

Bayern arrived in Rome having fallen five points off the pace in the Bundesliga following Saturday’s emphatic loss at Leverkusen.

Under-fire boss Tuchel made three personnel changes in a bid to bounce back, including dropping Eric Dier and recalling Germany internationals Joshua Kimmich and Thomas Muller.

Kimmich curled wide in the opening exchanges before Kane could not keep a close-range effort down following Muller’s pull back, while Luis Alberto lashed over from distance for the side sitting seventh in Serie A.

Former Manchester City forward Sane went close when his 32nd-minute effort whistled past the left post after Leon Goretzka and Muller shifted the angle of a free-kick on the edge of the D.

Musiala then fired over following impressive build-up play as the away side failed to register an attempt on target before the break.

Bayern beat Lazio 6-2 on aggregate as reigning champions at the same stage of the tournament in 2020-21 and were heavy favourites to repeat that feat.

Yet, having been relatively untested defensively, the visitors nearly conceded within three minutes of the restart.

Danish forward Isaksen was sent clear on goal after Bayern centre-back Upamecano was dispossessed by former Liverpool man Alberto, only for his low effort to be repelled by the legs of Neuer.

The six-time European champions were struggling to regain the upper hand and felt aggrieved to fall behind 21 minutes from time during a pivotal moment in the match.

French referee Francois Letexier pointed to the spot and brandished a red card after Upamecano caught Isaksen with his studs inside the box.

Bayern were unhappy with the decision but that did not stop Immobile – fresh from scoring his 200th Serie A goal in Saturday’s 3-1 win at Cagliari – calmly rolling home into the bottom right corner.

Former Tottenham striker Kane saw a long-rang free-kick deflected over as below-par Bayern sought a leveller.

Yet the surprise result could have been worse.

Felipe Anderson and substitute Pedro each went close to doubling Lazio’s lead late on, with Tuchel given plenty to ponder.

Captain Callum McGregor believes victory over Feyenoord in their final Champions League game would be no more than Celtic deserved in a doomed campaign.

Lazio’s 2-0 triumph over the Hoops in Rome on Tuesday night confirmed last place in Group E for Brendan Rodgers’ side, who will not have European football of any kind in the second half of the season.

Substitute Ciro Immobile’s two late goals kept Celtic on one point from five fixtures before they host Feyenoord next month and McGregor believes it is vital that the Scottish champions, who will finish bottom in their Champions League group for the second straight year, finish on a high.

The Scotland midfielder told Celtic’s YouTube channel: “It’s massively important. If nothing else, we feel like we deserve it.

“We feel like we’ve played well enough to certainly have more than one point. So, if we get the result then it’s probably been deserved over the piece.

“Obviously we want to finish strong, we are at home, we want to get the crowd behind us and try to get them a little bit of hope for maybe next season’s competition as well.

“So there’s definitely a lot to play for, and when you put on a Celtic jersey you’re always playing for everything. So we will certainly be going into that last game trying to win and do everyone proud.”

Celtic gave as good as they got for most of the match until the classy Immobile struck in the 82nd and 85th minutes to keep the three points in the Italian capital.

The Hoops were awarded a penalty by referee Halil Umut Meler in added time for a push on substitute Oh Hyeon-gyu but it was rescinded when the VAR intervened and sent the Turkish official to the pitchside monitor for another look.

For McGregor, he has seen it all before.

He said: “We are gutted. A little bit of the same old story – play well, don’t take chances and then you get hit with a sucker-punch and the second one kills the game.

“It is tough to take because I think everyone can see that we are well in the game, controlling the tempo and the flow of the game. And to be honest, at some point, we have to try and win so you open up a little bit and you get done with good quality.

“I have been saying this all through the competition – you’re playing against top players. They bring on a top player and he scores two goals – two really good striker’s goals.

“We do really well for 60-65 minutes and, when the game maybe opens up or the game gets a little bit difficult, we then need to get to grips with the game and regain control and, again, that comes with experience.

“I think that’s been the difference. When teams have had the moments in games, they have scored.

“We have started really well in quite a lot of the games. Obviously when we go away in the first two games, we go down to nine men (at Feyenoord) and 10 men (at Atletico Madrid), which makes it almost impossible at this level. So there was another learning curve.”

Ciro Immobile "feared for his daughters" and feels he had a lucky escape after the Lazio captain's car was hit by a tram on Sunday.

The Italy striker sustained a distortion trauma of the spine and a compound fracture of his rib when his vehicle was struck in Rome.

He was taken to the Agostino Gemelli IRCCS University Hospital following the crash, which occurred while his two daughters were travelling with him.

Video footage showed substantial damage to the front of Immobile's car and the 33-year-old is relieved he was not driving a smaller vehicle.

He is quoting as saying in the Corriere dello Sport: "An incredible blow. I only thought about protecting my girls. A nightmare, I feared for them. Luckily both we and the tram driver are here to talk about it. With another car I don't know what would have happened."

Lazio president Claudio Lotito said: "Ciro is part of our family, he is a champion to whom I am particularly attached also from a human point of view. 

"We are with him and we hope he will return soon, but now he must have the utmost serenity to think about his health and to that of his daughters."

Immobile scored his 12th goal of the season from the penalty spot in second-placed Lazio's 3-0 win over Spezia last Friday.

 

Lazio captain Ciro Immobile walked away without suffering any serious injuries after his car collided with a tram on Sunday morning.

The Italy striker was reportedly taken to the Agostino Gemelli IRCCS University Hospital following the crash in Rome.

It was reported Immobile's two daughters were also in his vehicle when the accident occurred in the Italian captain.

Lazio revealed in a statement that the 33-year-old sustained a distortion trauma of the spine and a compound fracture of his rib.

Immobile, who remains under observation in hospital in the Eternal City, said at the scene: "The tram ran a red light. Luckily I'm fine, my arm just hurts a little."

Video footage showed substantial damage to the front of Immobile's car.

Immobile scored his 12th goal of the season from the penalty spot in second-placed Lazio's 3-0 win over Spezia on Friday.

 

Manchester United are on the search for a new striker in the January transfer window as they seek a replacement for Cristiano Ronaldo and a solution to their goalscoring issues.

While United may have put three past a poor Nottingham Forest side on their return to Premier League action, they have struggled to find the net in general this season.

With 23 goals in 15 matches, at an average of 1.53 per game, 10 Premier League teams are scoring at the same or a better rate than Erik ten Hag's side.

That means half the division are more prolific than United, including the likes of Brentford (1.56 goals per game), Fulham (1.69) and Brighton and Hove Albion (1.73).

Indeed, even in that routine victory over Forest earlier this week, United's profligacy was clear to see prior to eventually killing off the contest with their third goal.

"We have to score more goals," manager Ten Hag said. "We created so many chances and it takes us until just before the end to score the third goal. 

"You can see Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford are goalscorers; Bruno Fernandes scores goals. We have a lot of players who can score, but we have to be ruthless."

The Magnificent Seven

"Ruthless" is the key word there. Ten Hag has made it clear he is not after a creative player, or indeed a wide forward who chips in with, say, 10 to 15 goals a season.

What Ten Hag and United need is, as Michael Owen pointed out on Tuesday, "a Ruud van Nistelrooy, a Robin van Persie, a Wayne Rooney who scores 30-plus goals a season".

Finding one of those players is easier said than done, of course, not least in the notoriously difficult-to-negotiate January window.

Taking all competitions into account, seven players from clubs across Europe's top five leagues hit that magic 30 mark last season, led by Robert Lewandowski (50).

It is safe to assume United will not consider negotiating for Lewandowski in January; the same being true for Karim Benzema (44), Kylian Mbappe (39) and Mohamed Salah (31).

Christopher Nkunku (35) would have been a far more attainable target had Chelsea not got there first, with a fee reportedly having already been agreed with RB Leipzig for a future transfer to the Blues.

That leaves Wissam Ben Yedder and Ciro Immobile as Europe's only other 30-plus-goal forwards from last term, having both scored 32 times for Monaco and Lazio respectively.

Ben Yedder and Immobile are still netting regularly this season, averaging a goal every other game, though both turn 33 next year and have no English football experience.

As stated by Ten Hag, who has been honest in his assessment of United's squad since arriving in July, any signings must "match the sporting and financial criteria".

Negotiating fees for under-contract duo Ben Yedder and Immobile, and tying them down to deals lasting into their mid-30s, would certainly not tick the latter box.

So what United actually need to find, then, is a prolific goalscorer who is on the right side of 30, attainable and ready to hit the ground running. What could be easier?

 

Who needs Vlahovic when you can have... Mitrovic?

There is one player – a surprise name on the face of it, perhaps – that ticks every possible box. Yes, that's right – Fulham striker Aleksandar Mitrovic.

Only Erling Haaland (1.3), Lewandowski and Mbappe (both 0.95) are averaging more goals per game among Europe's elite this season than Mitrovic (0.77).

It puts the Serbia international in a similar band to Marcus Thuram (0.76), Nkunku (0.74) and Victor Osimhen (0.71), each of whom have been regularly linked with United.

While it would be easy to dismiss those figures as misleading (he averages 0.31 goals across his Premier League career), he is a player very much for the here and now.

Mitrovic's 10 Premier League goals have come from an expected goals (xG) return of 8.6 – only three others have a higher figure – highlighting his prolific nature.

To put that differential of 1.4 into some context, United's leading scorer Rashford stands at 0.3 for the season – far from the ruthless finisher United crave.

That is not a slight on Rashford, who with 10 goals for the season has double the number of any other team-mate. Rashford is not the problem; a lack of centre-forward is.

Of course, for a club as big as United there is always an added onus to recruit marquee names, especially following the departure of a certain CR7.

That explains links with Enzo Fernandez, Dusan Vlahovic and Cody Gakpo, who starred at the World Cup with the Netherlands but has since agreed to join Liverpool.

A persuasive case can be put forward as to why any of those players still on the market could make the difference for United in the second half of the season.

Again, though, Ten Hag wants a "ruthless" striker. So how about the three names perhaps more synonymous with United and a January move than any other players?

 

The supporters' picks

Goncalo Ramos was still relatively unknown prior to the World Cup, but his hat-trick for Portugal against Switzerland in the last 16 changed all that.

Let us not forget, either, that Ramos was propelled into the side to replace Ronaldo up top. As the Primeira Liga's leading scorer this term, he is a young goalscorer with pedigree.

The aforementioned Osimhen has scored 10 goals in 14 games for Napoli this season, making it clear why many supporters have urged United to make a move.

Mohammed Kudus, too, is enjoying a good time of things at Ajax, and Ten Hag's previous business suggests he favours players with links to his home country.

There are certainly options out there for United, but whether the club can be shrewd enough in landing Ten Hag's top target, or targets, in a limited market is another question.

Yet for all the talk of chasing a star of Qatar 2022 or a possible star of the future, United may well be better off shopping closer to home to fulfil Ten Hag's wish.

Newcastle United have reportedly expressed their interest in signing out-of-favour Real Madrid midfielder Marco Asensio.

Asensio, 26, debuted for Madrid back in 2016, racking up 244 appearances and 50 goals across all club competitions in the seven seasons since.

However, despite tallying a career-high 10 LaLiga goals in the 2021-22 campaign, Asensio has been relegated to a bench role this season, and will be a free agent next year if he is not offered a new contract.

 

TOP STORY – NEWCASTLE HOPE TO LURE ASENSIO TO THE PREMIER LEAGUE

With Asensio in the last year of his contract, Milan have been the team most closely linked with the Spanish international, until Calciomercato added that Newcastle have thrown their hat into the ring.

Despite soon being available on a free transfer, Asensio's contract demands will likely rule out a number of high-profile interested parties, but with Newcastle's new spending power and their inability to land some key targets, he should be well within their financial capabilities.

Asensio is primed to represent Spain at the World Cup, with a report from AS claiming he hopes to earn a new Madrid contract with some impressive performances.

 

ROUND UP:

Tottenham target Weston McKennie will be allowed to leave Juventus at the end of the season, according to Calciomercato.

– The 'Here We Go' podcast claims the agent of Atletico Madrid's Joao Felix is exploring options for next season, with Manchester United said to have strong interest in the 22-year-old.

– According to Gazzetta dello Sport, Lazio will look to bring in another striker in January to help cover for injured star Ciro Immobile, with Sampdoria's Francesco Caputo named as a likely target.

– 90min is reporting both Chelsea and Newcastle United are investigating a move for Brighton's Leandro Trossard, with former Brighton and Hove Albion manager Graham Potter at Chelsea and former Seagulls sporting director Dan Ashworth now at Newcastle.

United, Arsenal and Bayern Munich are all said to be weighing up moves for Napoli striker Victor Osimhen, although the Nigerian's manager claims he is happy in Italy.

Italy boss Roberto Mancini says he is "pleased" to see Hungary thriving under former team-mate Marco Rossi, as the pair face off for a winner-takes-all Nations League clash.

The two sides meet in their final match in Group A3 on Monday, with the Azzurri needing victory in order to leapfrog their hosts into next year's finals in Budapest.

In a group that also included 2014 World Cup winners Germany and Euro 2020 finalists England, Hungary had been written off as easy pickings for relegation from the A tier of the Nations League.

But wins over both nations has catapulted them to top spot, and Mancini said he is delighted to see former Sampdoria team-mate Rossi showcasing his skill, stating that he is under no illusion of the task at hand.

"Playing in Hungary is never easy, but I am pleased that they have done so well in the Nations League, especially as their coach is my former team-mate," he stated.

"I see it as 50-50, because they can also count on a draw to go through. The fact we are here challenging for first place with 90 minutes to go is already pleasing, so we'll give it our all."

Italy will be without Ciro Immobile for the trip despite the striker making the journey to the airport, only to be left behind when the squad flew to Hungary.

Reports that Lazio's president Claudio Loitio ordered him to remain behind owing to a slight thigh issue were not commented on by Mancini, though he admitted the forward was not worth the risk.

"We tried and Immobile did everything right in trying to stay with us, but this morning we decided it wasn’t worth the risk," he added.

"It was disappointing for him and for us. Ciro would happily have stayed, and he did during the first game, but it was too dangerous to risk it.

"He wasn't in awful shape, but hasn't trained with us for three days. We met up when arriving in Milan, but his absence had already been discussed."

Ciro Immobile joined Italy's injury list ahead of Friday's Nations League encounter with England.

The Lazio striker has suffered a muscle injury and was not included in the Azzurri's squad list for the game at San Siro.

Midfielder Sandro Tonali left the European champions' training camp on the day of the match as he has not recovered from an injury.

Coach Roberto Mancini will also be without the likes of Marco Verratti, Matteo Politano, Lorenzo Pellegrini and Davide Calabria.

Italy will remain in contention for the Nations League Finals if they come out on top in a repeat of last year's Euro 2020 final.

England, bottom of Group 3, will be relegated from League A if they are beaten in Milan.

Maurizio Sarri bemoaned familiar "emotional breakdowns" and Ciro Immobile declared the result as "humiliating" after Lazio were thrashed 5-1 at Midtjylland in the Europa League on Thursday.

Sergej Milinkovic-Savic's 57th-minute strike proved a mere consolation as Lazio never recovered from going 3-0 down in 52 minutes after goals from Paulinho, Sory Kaba and Evander.

Gustav Isaksen and captain Erik Sviatchenko added further finishes following the Lazio midfielder's effort, condemning Sarri's side to a humbling defeat on their travels to the MCH Arena.

It marked just the fourth time Lazio have shipped five or more goals in a UEFA competition, leaving Sarri to question his methods as he lamented a reoccurrence of previous problems.

"I don't see great differences [from previous seasons]," Sarri told reporters. "These sudden emotional breakdowns are similar to those of previous years.

"It is difficult to understand the reasons: if it's me I have to take a step back, if it's the players it has to go away."

Lazio were met with jeers from their travelling supporters and Immobile acknowledged the boos were justified.

"The fans reacted with a clear head. They told us they were rightly p***** about what they saw. But to look forward, they told us not to give up and that nothing was lost," Immobile said.

"We thought we had taken a step more than last year, but we were wrong. Losing like this is really humiliating. I see it different from the defeats against Bologna and Verona.

"We played with little humility. In Europe, you pay for these things and we have paid enough for them – five goals are unacceptable."

Simone Inzaghi praised Romelu Lukaku's contribution since he returned to Inter on loan from Chelsea, as he backed the Belgian striker to hit top form sooner rather than later ahead of their trip to Lazio.

Inter have made a perfect start to their Serie A title bid, following up a last-gasp win at Lecce on the opening day by beating Spezia 3-0 last time out.

Lukaku, who fired the Nerazzurri to the Scudetto in 2020-21 with 24 league goals before heading to Chelsea, needed just 82 seconds to find the net when making his second Inter debut at Lecce.

While the Belgian then failed to score in Inter's routine win at San Siro last weekend, Inzaghi was content with his display and believes it will not be long until he is scoring regularly once more.

"I think he did the first two games in the best way. It is not a matter that concerns only Romelu, but the whole team," Inzaghi said at a pre-match press conference.

"We know that the condition is improving, we know we have players with important physicality and therefore we knew we needed some important games. 

"We started quite well, we want to continue trying to improve all our players, including Lukaku. 

"We also want to recover [Henrikh] Mkhitaryan, who will be very important, there will be 19 games in a row before a stop [for the World Cup]. We will have to try to have all the players available. Tomorrow everyone travels except Henrikh."

 

Lukaku scored 47 goals in 72 Serie A appearances in his first spell at Inter. Only Cristiano Ronaldo (60 goals in 66 appearances) and Ciro Immobile (56 in 72 games) outscored him in the competition during that time.

Lukaku's return has raised hopes that Inter could reclaim the Serie A title this season, but holding onto defender Milan Skriniar, who was strongly linked with Paris Saint-Germain, could prove just as important.

While Skriniar struggled with a muscle injury during pre-season, Inzaghi is pleased with the Slovakia international's progress, adding: "I see him very well, concentrated, attentive. 

"There was a problem at the beginning of the preparation, it came from an injury with the national team, something new for him because he had never skipped a training session in the last years. 

"Instead, this time he slowed down for 40 or 45 days and his condition is growing."

Inzaghi suffered his first league defeat as Inter boss when visiting former club Lazio in October last year, with Immobile on the scoresheet.

And while Inzaghi still enjoys a close bond with last season's Serie A top goalscorer, he is not enthused by the prospect of facing the Italy international on Friday.

"A great affection binds me to him, he made very important seasons with me, he did it again last year with [Maurizio] Sarri," he added. 

"I know it's a special game for everyone, we all care about it. I hope Ciro always scores, but maybe tomorrow he rests!"

Jose Mourinho has been accused of lacking respect by Roma's rivals Lazio after he claimed their winning goal against Spezia should not have stood.

Roma and Lazio are locked in a battle to secure a top-six finish in Serie A, and Maurizio Sarri's team sit level on points with the Giallorossi after earning a last-gasp 4-3 win over Spezia on Saturday, while Mourinho's men dropped points in a goalless draw with Bologna a day later.

Having spent much of their match trailing, Lazio snatched a thrilling win when Francesco Acerbi flicked home in the final minute.

After Ciro Immobile became just the 10th player to reach 150 Serie A goals for one club earlier in the match, Acerbi's winner was controversial as it appeared he turned home from an offside position, leading Mourinho to take aim at the decision to let the goal stand.

Subsequently, Lazio have hit back.

"The fact that in 2022 a coach of another team repeatedly refers to presumed referee favours to competing teams demonstrates some things," the statement began.

"That Lazio is obsessively in their thoughts more than other coveted professional goals; that, as often happens, one looks into other people's homes to divert attention from missed results and sensational episodes that have occurred in one's own home, in one's favour, under the eyes of all.

"Despite the need to evolve the image of football in Italy, some players are stuck with the constant repetition of accusations against the referees and the VAR, [and] these offensive attitudes towards referees are too often overlooked.

"The Lazio Sports Society rejects the criticisms and insinuations. It continues to believe that values are demonstrated on the pitch and not in the television salons. Lazio will never lend itself to being anyone's alibi or scapegoat and will assert its reasons in the appropriate forums." 

In accusing Mourinho of lacking respect for referees and other clubs, Lazio also claimed not to have commented on several refereeing decisions which they perceived to have gone against them in recent weeks.

These incidents included a potential foul on Acerbi in the build-up to Sandro Tonali's late winner for Milan at the Stadio Olimpico, and an alleged elbow by Roger Ibanez when Lazio met Roma in March.

"The company's line continues to be that of not discussing the decisions taken on the pitch, even when it comes to obvious episodes that occurred to the detriment of the Biancoceleste team, such as [Sandro] Tonali's foul on Acerbi in Lazio-Milan on the occasion of the goal, or the elbow from [Roger] Ibanez on [Sergej] Milinkovic-Savic in the [Rome] derby," the statement continued.

"[These are] decisive episodes on which we have chosen silence, out of respect for the referees on the field and the VAR, respect that others have not shown and continue not to demonstrate."

The capital clubs are separated by virtue of their head-to-head record with three games left, with Roma boasting the advantage after winning 3-0 in March.

Milan moved back to the top of Serie A as Sandro Tonali's stoppage-time goal sealed a deserved 2-1 victory over Lazio on Sunday.

Stefano Pioli's side had been usurped at the summit by local rivals Inter after their 3-1 win over Roma on Saturday, but victory at the Stadio Olimpico means the Rossoneri regained their two-point lead at the top.

Ciro Immobile had given Lazio an early lead with his 25th league goal of the season, but Olivier Giroud pulled the visitors level shortly after the interval.

Tonali then poked home two minutes into stoppage time to seal a dramatic three points and spark jubilant scenes among the travelling supporters. 

Roberto Mancini has revealed the decision to release several senior Italy faces such as Jorginho is to help repay the efforts made between club and country.

The Chelsea midfielder, along with a clutch of other key players such as Marco Verratti, Ciro Immobile and Lorenzo Insigne, have left the Azzurri camp ahead of Tuesday's clash with Turkey.

Defeat against North Macedonia last week left the Euro 2020 hopes' of reaching Qatar 2022 in tatters, ensuring they will miss a second successive World Cup.

With that in mind, Mancini looks set to field a more experimental side for a dead rubber against Turkey, who were also eliminated from the play-offs.

Speaking ahead of the match at Torku Arena, Mancini explained that it was on his orders that Jorginho and others departed early, stating that it was intended as a favour to their respective clubs.

"I forced them to leave," the manager sought to clarify in his pre-match press conference. "If I can do something for them and for the clubs, we do it.

"They would not have played. Some were not physically at their best. Some of them, I forced them to go.

"Chelsea sent us Jorginho three days earlier [and] did not let him play in the FA Cup. I sent [him] back home because [he] would not have played."

Jorginho has endured a tough few months in the Azzurri fold, with his crucial missed penalties against Switzerland in the group stage qualifiers effectively costing his side a straight passage to Qatar.

While Mancini added that neither Napoli forward Insigne or Lazio striker Immobile would have featured against Turkey, but still paid tribute to their contributions.

"Lorenzo had physical problems [and] Immobile would have gone to the stands," he stated.

"The boys in recent years have deserved a lot. There are special players here, a special group has been created."

Marco Verratti and Jorginho were among a group of six players to leave the Italy camp after their failure to qualify for the World Cup. 

Ciro Immobile, Lorenzo Insigne, Domenico Berardi and Gianluca Mancini also returned to their clubs ahead of schedule, with the latter two having sustained knocks. 

Italy coach Roberto Mancini is expected to ring the changes in a friendly against Turkey on Tuesday following the Azzurri's shock defeat to North Macedonia in a World Cup qualifying play-off semi-final on Thursday. 

The Euro 2020 champions' first ever home loss in World Cup qualifying meant they failed to reach successive finals for the first time in their history. 

Instead of taking on Portugal in the play-off final, Italy will depart for Konya on Monday. 

Is Maurizio Sarri getting the most out of Lazio? To help answer that, we arguably have to look to his coaching predecessor - Simone Inzaghi.

After five seasons of trying under Inzaghi's stewardship, the Biancocelesti finally qualified for the Champions League. There were seasons where they came agonisingly close too - particularly in 2017-18, where Inter beat them at the Stadio Olimpico on the final day of the Serie A season, to claim fourth place and the final spot in Europe's premier competition.

When they finally did qualify, last season’s 6-2 defeat on aggregate to Bayern Munich in the last-16 – and Inzaghi’s ensuing departure for Inter – was microcosmic of an overall sense the 45-year-old extracted the maximum out of the players he had at his disposal, within his system.

With Sunday's Rome derby in mind, despite the fact Lazio are currently fifth and again perceivably in the running for that last Champions League place, that's the arguable framework for how we must interpret Sarri's first season in the Italian capital.

It's not only pertinent to ask whether the 63-year-old is extracting the maximum out of this Lazio squad within his own system. Ultimately, are the players Sarri has at his disposal even compatible to that system?

One of the stronger case studies in this discussion is Luis Alberto. The Spaniard is arguably not only one of Serie A's most transformative midfielders, but in European football.

Since joining Lazio in 2016, within the framework of Inzaghi’s 3-5-2, the 29-year-old blossomed into an elite ball progressor and shot creator from a statistical standpoint. He holds five of the 10 highest ratings for passes into the penalty area per 90 minutes in Lazio's history - since Stats Perform's first recordings of the data in 2005-06.

 

Just as important as Luis Alberto's ability to create with the ball is his ability to act as a positional reference point, in order to create for others without it. His ability to drive and distribute is underpinned by an intelligent and assertive positional sense, which also compliments the likes of Ciro Immobile and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic - and the latter’s particular penchant for late entry into the penalty area.

Yet along with cramping him of the half-space to move into when Lazio are in possession, Sarri's 4-3-3 setup asks more of the Spaniard defensively - exacerbating his notoriously suspect ground coverage. The more energetic Toma Basic's August transfer from Bordeaux and initial scope under the new coach, in Luis Alberto's place, was conspicuous in this respect.

This all matters because under Sarri, only Napoli have kept the ball more than them in Serie A this season. Lazio rank 12th in Europe's top-five leagues combined for touches per 90, but 60th for shots in the penalty area per 90. It would take a sizeable increase in shot quality upon previous years to make that disparity more sustainable, weighing up qualitative and quantitative aspects. That increase hasn't eventuated.

Lazio's ability to function in possession ultimately relies on Luis Alberto's skillset, and one statistic stands out - even this season, the team has averaged 9.27 shots in open play per 90 minutes with him on the pitch, and 5.97 without. In addition, his impact on Immobile is profound.

 

 

Immobile's xG per open play shot (0.14 on/0.2 off) actually increases when Luis Alberto is off the pitch, but his quantity of open-play shots also goes down (3.15 on/2.27 off). Meanwhile, playing in Sarri's 4-3-3 requires more from him as a collaborative player with his back to goal, a relatively weak area of his play that contributed to respective struggles at Sevilla, Borussia Dortmund and the Italian national team.

In Inzaghi's 3-5-2, Immobile wasn't cramped for space and could still receive the ball between the lines, but in positions where he's able to face goal and go at defenders with momentum. This season, the 32-year-old striker has completed (0.6) and attempted (1.38) fewer dribbles than in any of his six seasons at Lazio.

On top of that, despite this season being his second highest so far for touches per 90 (42.67), Immobile is also creating less chances in open play per 90 (0.78) than in any of his six seasons at the Olimpico. Six penalties for the season brings his higher xG but lower xA per 90 into context, exposing a question of net gain.

 

 

This all provides the backdrop for Lazio's sizeable xG overperformance this season. It is ultimately propelling their contention for a Champions League place and obscuring just how volatile they have been defensively – exposing Francesco Acerbi's ability to play in a four-man defence as opposed to a three-man defence.

So far this season in Serie A, Lazio have scored the second-highest amount of goals with 58 and rank eighth for xG with 42.1, but aside from Hellas Verona (14.3), are a distant first (15.9) in differential between the two statistical categories.

With this all in context, the reality that Sarri will remain faithful to this 4-3-3 will arguably be to the detriment of Lazio's most important players under Inzaghi. Whether they stay or go, as long as Sarri stays, will determine how dramatic the eventual regression to the mean will be.

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