The Rugby Championship: Springboks seek decisive victory over All Blacks

By Sports Desk September 04, 2024

Round four of the 2024 Rugby Championship is almost upon us, taking us past the halfway stage of a competition so far dominated by South Africa.

The Springboks made it three wins from three games against New Zealand last time out, though they left it late as tries from Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu and Grant Williams handed them a dramatic 31-27 victory at Ellis Park.

Heading from Johannesburg to Cape Town on Saturday, they know another victory would all but wrap up their first triumph in the competition since 2019, ending the All Blacks' five-year reign.

The world champions enter round four with an eight-point lead over New Zealand in the standings, with Argentina one point further back ahead of their second Test against Australia.

Here, we dive into the Opta data to preview this weekend's action, bringing you the best facts and figures from each game.

SOUTH AFRICA V NEW ZEALAND 

At various points last week, it looked as though New Zealand were set to breathe fresh life into this year's Rugby Championship race.

The All Blacks held a 27-17 lead at one stage, but Ofa Tu'ungafasi's 69th-minute sin-bin put South Africa in the ascendancy and two late tries helped them claim victory in a re-run of last year's World Cup final.

It will now take an almighty collapse to stop the Springboks from getting their hands on the trophy. They are chasing a fourth straight Test win over New Zealand, last recording more successive victories against them between September 1937 and September 1949 (six).

The All Blacks, meanwhile, have lost two of their last three Test matches (one win) after only losing one of their previous nine (eight victories). 

Last week's defeat was a particularly demoralising one for Scott Robertson's team, as even scoring four tries was not enough for victory. Prior to that game, the last time the All Blacks were beaten when scoring four or more tries was in August 2019 (47-26 v Australia).

The visitors will now be acutely aware of South Africa's resilience, and the Springboks have actually won their last three Tests in Cape Town despite trailing at half-time in two of them, having lost four such matches in a row prior to the start of this run.

South Africa face a nervous wait on the fitness of Siya Kolisi after he took a heavy blow to the cheek from Sam Cane last time out, delaying their team news announcement by two days to give their captain every chance of making it.

But regardless of who starts, they will bring plenty of physicality. The Springboks have crossed the gain line on 64% of their carries in this year's Rugby Championship – at least 6% more than any other team. Their tackles success rate of 89%, meanwhile, is also the highest in the tournament.

New Zealand will have to make the most of their opportunities, but they can take encouragement from their efficiency in the 2024 tournament to date. Their 22 line breaks are at least four more than any team, while their average of 3.6 points scored per attacking 22m entry is also the best in the competition. 

PLAYERS TO WATCH

South Africa – Elrigh Louw

Louw has crossed the gain line from 73% of his 26 carries so far in the 2024 Rugby Championship. That is the highest rate of any player with 20 or more carries in the competition this year.

New Zealand – Caleb Clark

While the All Blacks were unable to get over the line against South Africa last week, Clark impressed with two tries, having failed to score versus the Springboks in three previous career appearances against them.

Overall, he has six tries in his last six Tests, scoring at least once in each of his last three.

ARGENTINA V AUSTRALIA 

Australia finally got up and running in this year's tournament in round three, overcoming Argentina in another dramatic finale in La Plata. 

Ben Donaldson kicked a last-gasp penalty as the Wallabies triumphed 20-19, and though a fifth Tri-Nations/Rugby Championship title is now surely beyond them, they could restore further pride this week by claiming back-to-back wins in the competition for the first time since 2022.

Australia have now won four of their last six Test matches against Los Pumas (two defeats), though they have typically had to do things the hard way, not leading at half-time in any of the teams' last four meetings (two wins, two defeats).

Indeed, Argentina should be expected to keep things competitive again, having seen four of their last five Rugby Championship matches decided by margins of no more than eight points (two wins, three losses).

This will be the first time they have welcomed Australia to Sante Fe, where they will be desperate to improve on their underwhelming record. They have lost their last two games in the city, going down 30-12 to Wales in 2018 and 35-25 to England in 2017.

The hosts will again be looking to make the most of kick returns, having gained 423 metres from such situations in the Rugby Championship this year – 170 more than Australia, who rank second with 253m.  

Australia, meanwhile, lead the tournament charts for turnovers won, with 16. The Wallabies have also registered 44 successful exits from their defensive 22m zone, with only New Zealand (47) recording more.

PLAYERS TO WATCH 

Argentina – Juan Martin Gonzalez

Gonzalez, alongside Australia's Carlo Tizzano, has made dominant contact on more tackles than any other player in the Rugby Championship 2024 (seven each).

Gonzalez has also crossed the line for a try in each of his last four Test matches against Australia, including for Argentina's sole score last week. He has gained 4.1 metres per carry in the Rugby Championship 2024, the best average among all forwards (minimum 10 carries attempted).

Australia – Rob Valentini 

Valentini has been directly involved in four tries in his last four Test matches (three tries, one try assist), including going over Argentina last time out.

That is more involvements than he logged across his previous 27 Tests for the Wallabies prior to this span (three – two tries, one try assist).

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    Maureen Brown (left) shares a photo opportunity with her Manchester Spurs team.

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