Joe Burrow is used to overcoming adversity. His career has been defined by doing just that.
Recruited to Ohio State after a stellar high school career, Burrow never achieved his ambition of being the starting quarterback for the Buckeyes, who preferred to give first J.T. Barrett and then Dwayne Haskins the reins to their offense. His response: transfer to LSU and win the National Championship in the 2019 campaign, using his final year in college to put together one of the finest quarterback seasons ever produced at that level.
Five thousand six hundred and seventy-one passing yards, 60 touchdowns and just six interceptions proved more than enough to convince the Cincinnati Bengals he was deserving of the number one overall pick in the 2020 draft.
There was concern that decision would not be vindicated when, in Week 11 of the 2020 season against the then-Washington Football Team, Burrow tore multiple knee ligaments, ending his rookie season prematurely.
It was no secret that Burrow endured his struggles in training camp as he attempted to put the mental and physical pain of that devastating injury behind him, but any doubts that existed in the summer have long since been extinguished by a season in which he has continually thrived in adversity and excelled in the most significant moments.
No NFL quarterback was more accurate in the regular season, Burrow's well-thrown percentage of 85.7 the best in the league among quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts, and no quarterback fared better under pressure. He delivered an accurate, well-thrown ball on 80.1 per cent of his 156 pass attempts under pressure, putting him tops for quarterbacks with a minimum of 50 such attempts. His nearest challenger was Ryan Tannehill (76.5) while the average was 70 per cent.
Burrow does not just excel at being accurate under pressure, he also does a remarkable job of escaping it, his leap out of the clutches of Chris Jones in the fourth quarter one of the defining images of the Bengals' stunning comeback against the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.
When the odds appear stacked against him, Burrow changes the calculus, and he is the reason why you'll find many in Los Angeles expecting him to spoil the Rams' party and lead Cincinnati to victory in Super Bowl LVI on Sunday.
Kevin Clark, senior NFL writer at The Ringer, is among those selecting Cincinnati to pull off the upset because of Burrow.
"I think it's going to be close, and when that happens it becomes situational football, it becomes third and eight, what's your best play? Who's best equipped for that? For me, that's Joe Burrow," Clark told Stats Perform this week.
"I was leaning Rams because I just believe in talent, a lot of times I say 'there's more blue-chip guys on this roster, I'm picking them' but when I started to look at it, I realised the difference wasn't that great. The Bengals just beat the Chiefs, and they did a nice job against the Chiefs. The idea that the Bengals are some Cinderella story plus Joe Burrow, I don't agree with that."
No quarterback in the NFL with at least 100 attempts on third down in the regular season had a better completion percentage in those situations than Burrow (72.5) while he also led the league in passing plays of 50 yards or more (12) despite his arm strength being a tick below the level of some of his superstar contemporaries.
"I was just reading a book that his college coach wrote, and they were saying in his junior year in training camp he didn't separate himself because his arm just wasn't that strong. You go from that to leading the NFL in 50 plus yards receptions, it's remarkable, it's unbelievable," added Clark.
"I think that's a testament to getting the ball out quickly, knowing exactly where the ball is gonna go, any quarterback can go throw 50 yards, it's whether you can throw 70 yards. If you're in the NFL you can get there and so Burrow, using all of his arm strength, but then you look at what he's able to do with just vision, the placement, it's all there and it's rendering the lack of arm strength quite frankly meaningless.
Burrow's success in overcoming his own supposed physical limitations is also giving his coach, Zac Taylor, freedom to be more aggressive. The Bengals were third in the NFL this season in fourth-down conversion success rate (65 per cent) and the confidence Taylor can afford to have in his quarterback could tilt the coaching matchup with Sean McVay in his favour.
Clark explained: "I think that McVay is obviously a much better coach than Zac Taylor, I think Burrow has liberated Zac Taylor in a way that gives him cover, almost like if you remember with the Ravens and Lamar Jackson a few years ago where the Ravens were getting very aggressive because they had Lamar Jackson, and if there was any question in the media about why this person went for it, the answer was just always Lamar Jackson.
"Joe Burrow is that kind of player where it's fourth and four, they're gonna go for it. I think in the coaching matchup Burrow makes a difference because he's the kind of guy who's going to go over there and say 'coach we're going for it on fourth down' and Zac Taylor is smart enough to say 'this guy's driving the bus I'm gonna let him do it'".
Taylor confirmed as such during the Bengals' media availability on Friday, the Bengals' desire to involve Burrow in the process on gameday and in the offseason allowing both coach and quarterback to feel more comfortable.
"We took with the number one pick so there's obviously some special traits, we know he's a winner, he's a champion," said Taylor.
"We wanted to make sure that we built this thing around him and how he could feel most comfortable. I think that when a player like that, who prepares like he does and sees the game, really from a coach's perspective, he should be involved in everything we do, and that's opinions on other players that we're adding to the team, that's scheme and game plan, that's adjustments that we make over the course of the game, he's earned that.
"Any time he's involved, he tends to make it work really well. And so I don't think that there's any egos on our staff that say no, we've got to do it the way that the coaches want it done. I want him to feel comfortable on game day, because when he feels comfortable, he plays at a really special level."
Comfortable with how the team operates, at ease in the spotlight and always calm under pressure, Burrow has even earned the blessing of the original 'Joe Cool', Joe Montana, to take that nickname. In what could be the warmest Super Bowl ever, Burrow's composure may turn the heat on the home favourite Rams.
Wolves v Arsenal: ‘What we still have to play for is beautiful’ – Arteta
Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta set out to remind his team that they still have something “beautiful” to play for despite their Champions League exit.
The Gunners slipped out of UEFA’s flagship club competition in midweek when they went down 1-0 to Bayern Munich, losing 3-2 on aggregate.
That defeat followed on from a 2-0 loss to Aston Villa last Sunday – a reverse that significantly dented Arsenal’s title hopes, with the Gunners now two points behind Manchester City who, after this weekend, will have a game in hand.
Arsenal face Wolves on Saturday and, with City in FA Cup action, a win would see them move back to the top of the table, at least temporarily, so Arteta offered a reminder that all is not lost.
“I can guarantee you we are fully focused on Wolves and everybody's lifted,” he said following the loss in Munich.
“What we still have to play is beautiful and I said before, it's time to be next to our players and in this moment, not when you win 10 in a row and a draw, that's easy to prize our players and to be behind them and to say really nice things. The moment is now to be next to them.”
On Friday, in his pre-match press conference, Arteta added: “As an experience, [the Champions League was] the best one.
“I am now fully focused on the times ahead of us. We are now behind Manchester City and will give it a good go. The context is clear. If we win we are top of the league.”
Wolves sit 11th, though they could do with snapping a four-game winless streak in order to get their European hopes back on track.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Wolves – Matheus Cunha
Cunha has been involved in nine goals in his last nine Premier League games, scoring six and assisting three. His 11 goals overall this season is the fourth most by a Wolves player in a single Premier League campaign after Raul Jimenez (17 in 2019-20, 13 in 2018-19) and Steven Fletcher (12 in 2011-12).
Arsenal – Bukayo Saka
Saka has been involved in eight goals in his last seven Premier League away games, scoring seven and assisting one. His 13 away goal involvements overall this term (eight goals, five assists) is the most by an Arsenal player in a single Premier League campaign since Alexis Sanchez’s 20 in 2016-17.
MATCH PREDICTION: ARSENAL WIN
Arsenal lost a Premier League game for the first time in 2024 against Villa last time out. Since the start of last season, only twice have the Gunners suffered consecutive league defeats, doing so in May 2023 (v Brighton and Nottingham Forest) and December this season (v West Ham and Fulham).
Wolves are winless in their last four Premier League games (D2 L2), though they have won their last two at Molineux against sides starting the day in the top two of the table, beating Man City 2-1 in September and Spurs by the same score in November.
Arsenal have scored in their last 32 meetings with Wolves in all competitions.
Wolves have now lost each of their last five against the Gunners, failing to score in both home defeats in that run.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Wolves – 21.5%
Arsenal – 51.2%
Draw – 27.3%
Fulham v Liverpool: Klopp unconcerned by Salah's scoring form
Jurgen Klopp is not overly worried by Mohamed Salah’s slight dip in form, as the Liverpool manager turned full focus to the Reds’ Premier League title challenge.
A bad week for Liverpool was capped off on Thursday when, despite a 1-0 win over Atalanta, they slumped out of the Europa League 3-1 on aggregate following a heavy defeat at Anfield in the first leg.
That loss on April 11 came three days before a 1-0 home reverse to Crystal Palace, which saw Liverpool’s league title hopes take a dent – they are now two points behind Manchester City with six games remaining.
What has not helped their course is that talisman Salah – who netted an early penalty against Atalanta but squandered a big chance later in the match – has scored just three times in the league since returning from a hamstring injury he sustained while playing for Egypt at the Africa Cup of Nations in January.
Klopp, though, is confident Salah will soon be back at his best.
“I am not particularly concerned,” he said ahead of facing Fulham.
“That’s what strikers do, that’s what happens to strikers, that’s how it is. We have to go through this, he has to go through that. He is one of the most experienced players we have in the squad.
“We will go through that but that’s pretty much all. It’s not that Mo didn’t miss chances before in his life, that’s a part of the game. I am not particularly concerned.”
Reflecting on the task at hand now for his side, Klopp added: “Disappointed that we did not go through [in Europe] but not frustrated or angry.
“Now we can focus on the league and that’s what we will do. We have a few days to recover, we will do that, and then will travel the day after tomorrow to London and will play Fulham, which will be tricky but we will give our absolute all.
“That’s our competition now. I saw a good reaction from my side, we had not a great week last week obviously. This, if we want, was the start for the rest of the season with a good result and a good performance and that’s how we see it.”
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Fulham – Andreas Pereira
Pereira has been involved in four goals in his last four Premier League appearances (two goals, two assists), with his brace against West Ham more than he had netted in his previous 34 games combined (one).
Indeed, Pereira has more goal involvements than any other Fulham player since the start of last season (seven goals, 13 assists).
Liverpool – Mohamed Salah
Salah may not be firing on all cylinders from a goalscoring perspective, but he is proving to be Liverpool’s creative hub.
Only Martin Odegaard (68) and Bruno Fernandes (59) have created more chances from open play in the Premier League this season than Salah (58). He has created at least four open-play chances in five different games this season, with Roberto Firmino the last Liverpool player to do so more times in one season (10 in 2016-17).
MATCH PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL WIN
The Reds might have had a bad week, but Opta’s model still fancies their chances of returning to winning ways.
Liverpool have scored in each of their last 19 away Premier League matches, the longest current run of any side. That being said, since losing 3-0 to Brentford in their first home Premier League game this season, Fulham have conceded just 13 goals in their last 15 games at Craven Cottage (0.9 per game). With six clean sheets at home so far, the Cottagers last had more in a Premier League campaign in 2010-11 (nine).
Marco Silva’s team have scored 49 Premier League goals this season, having netted 55 last season. The last time the Cottagers scored 50+ goals in consecutive Premier League seasons was in 2003-04 (52) and 2004-05 (52).
However, Fulham have won just one of their last 11 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D2 L8), winning 1-0 at Anfield in March 2021.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Fulham – 20.85%
Liverpool – 53.1%
Draw – 26.1%
Inter Miami v Nashville SC: Smith not looking forward to Messi reunion
Nashville SC coach Gary Smith is not looking forward to his team facing Lionel Messi for the third time this year, with the Inter Miami star fit and firing ahead of Saturday's MLS clash in Fort Lauderdale.
A hamstring issue caused Messi to spend almost a month on the sidelines before he returned with a goal in Miami's 2-2 draw with the Colorado Rapids earlier this month.
The Argentina great was then on the scoresheet again last weekend, as Miami ended a five-game winless run with an entertaining 3-2 success against Sporting Kansas City.
With Messi also scoring in both legs of a CONCACAF Champions Cup triumph over Nashville in March, Smith is sick of the sight of the eight-time Ballon d'Or winner.
"I'm a little bit disappointed that Lionel Messi has gotten himself back into tip-top sharp form as we come back into town again!" Smith said.
"I think that what we can safely say is when he's in the group, there's a very, very different feel and look and inspiration about that team."
Nashville are winless in three games since beating Charlotte FC 2-1 last month, with Daniel Gazdag's last-gasp strike condemning them to a 2-1 defeat against the Philadelphia Union last time out.
Smith believes his team are at least giving themselves a chance of picking up results, adding: "When we've got our best group on the field — and we need to have our best group on the field — we're very competitive."
Miami's win over Kansas City ensured they will enter the weekend top of the Eastern Conference standings, and boss Gerardo Martino is pleased to see them setting the pace.
"Being first in the standings is comforting, especially with a long week ahead," Martino said. "It was very important for us to get out of that rut of getting ties, losses, and making mistakes."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Inter Miami – Lionel Messi
Messi has been involved in at least one goal in each of his first five league games of the season, the second time he's done so in his career, having achieved the feat in six straight matches with Barcelona to begin 2013-14 in LaLiga.
The Argentine has also managed at least one goal involvement in each of his eight appearances for Miami across all competitions in 2024, including two goals and one assist in two matches against Nashville.
Nashville SC – Jacob Shaffelburg
Shaffelburg has assisted each of Nashville's last two MLS goals, one in each of their last two matches.
Previously, he had only recorded one assist in his first 40 regular-season matches with Nashville. Will his purple patch continue in Florida?
MATCH PREDICTION – INTER MIAMI WIN
Nashville have only managed one win in their last 15 away games against MLS opponents across all competitions (six draws, eight defeats).
That run, which stretches back to June 2023, includes a draw and a loss against Miami, who are also unbeaten in five straight head-to-head meetings between the teams (two wins, three draws).
Last week's 3-2 win over Sporting KC was the 11th time Miami have scored three or more goals in their 22 games with Messi making an appearance, across all competitions. They have only scored three or more goals on 15 occasions in their 134 all-time games without the Argentine. He should be involved on Saturday, and that makes them favourites.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Inter Miami – 36.6%
Nashville SC – 33.8%
Draw – 29.6%
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